Evaluation of a mathematical model of diabetes progression against observations in the Diabetes Prevention Program.

The seminal publication of the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) results in 2002 has provided insight into the impact of major therapies on the development of diabetes over a time span of a few years. In the present work, the publicly available DPP data set is used to calibrate and evaluate a recently developed mechanistic mathematical model for the long-term development of diabetes to assess the model's ability to predict the natural history of disease progression and the effectiveness of preventive interventions. A general population is generated from which virtual subject samples corresponding to the DPP enrollment criteria are selected. The model is able to reproduce with good fidelity the observed time courses of both diabetes incidence and average glycemia, under realistic hypotheses on evolution of disease and efficacy of the studied therapies, for all treatment arms. Model-based simulations of the long-term evolution of the disease are consistent with the transient benefits observed with conventional therapies and with promising effects of radical improvement of insulin sensitivity (as by metabolic surgery) or of ß-cell protection. The mechanistic diabetes progression model provides a credible tool by which long-term implications of antidiabetic interventions can be evaluated.

Double-blind, randomized study evaluating the glycemic and anti-inflammatory effects of subcutaneous LY2189102, a neutralizing IL-1ß antibody, in patients with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammation is associated with pancreatic ß-cell apoptosis and reduced insulin sensitivity. Literature suggests that interleukin (IL)-1ß may contribute to the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to determine the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of LY2189102, a neutralizing IL-1ß antibody, in T2DM patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Phase II, randomized, double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled study of subcutaneous LY2189102 (0.6, 18, and 180 mg) administered weekly for 12 weeks in T2DM patients on diet and exercise, with or without approved antidiabetic medications. RESULTS: LY2189102 reduced HbA1c at 12 weeks (adjusted mean differences versus placebo: -0.27, -0.38 and -0.25% for 0.6, 18 and 180 mg doses, respectively), and fasting glucose at multiple time points compared with placebo. LY2189102 also reduced postprandial glycemia, and inflammatory biomarkers, including hs-CRP and IL-6. LY2189102 was generally well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: Weekly subcutaneous LY2189102 for 12 weeks was well tolerated, modestly reduced HbA1c and fasting glucose, and demonstrated significant anti-inflammatory effects in T2DM patients. Neutralizing IL-1ß holds promise as a convenient adjuvant treatment for T2DM.

Mathematical models of diabetes progression.

Few attempts have been made to model mathematically the progression of type 2 diabetes. A realistic representation of the long-term physiological adaptation to developing insulin resistance is necessary for effectively designing clinical trials and evaluating diabetes prevention or disease modification therapies. Writing a good model for diabetes progression is difficult because the long time span of the disease makes experimental verification of modeling hypotheses extremely awkward. In this context, it is of primary importance that the assumptions underlying the model equations properly reflect established physiology and that the mathematical formulation of the model give rise only to physically plausible behavior of the solutions. In the present work, a model of the pancreatic islet compensation is formulated, its physiological assumptions are presented, some fundamental qualitative characteristics of its solutions are established, the numerical values assigned to its parameters are extensively discussed (also with reference to available cross-sectional epidemiologic data), and its performance over the span of a lifetime is simulated under various conditions, including worsening insulin resistance and primary replication defects. The differences with respect to two previously proposed models of diabetes progression are highlighted, and therefore, the model is proposed as a realistic, robust description of the evolution of the compensation of the glucose-insulin system in healthy and diabetic individuals. Model simulations can be run from the authors' web page.

Clinical pharmacokinetics of alamifovir and its metabolites.

Alamifovir, a purine nucleotide analogue prodrug, and its hydrolyzed derivatives have shown preclinical efficacy activity against wild-type and lamivudine-resistant hepatitis B virus. Two studies were conducted to examine the single- and multiple-dose alamifovir pharmacokinetics after oral administration in healthy males. In study 1, subjects were given single doses (0.2 to 80 mg), with a subset receiving 20 mg in a fed state. Study 2 subjects were dosed with 2.5 to 15 mg twice daily for 15 days. Plasma samples were collected over 72 h in study 1 and over 24 h on days 1 and 15 in study 2. Concentrations of alamifovir and its major metabolites were determined using liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry methods. The data were analyzed using a noncompartmental technique. Although alamifovir was rapidly absorbed, there was limited systemic exposure due to its rapid hydrolysis and formation of at least three metabolites, suggesting that alamifovir acts as a prodrug. The major metabolites detected were 602074 and 602076, with 602075 detectable only in higher-dose groups. Maximum 602074 plasma concentration was achieved at approximately 0.5 h (T(max)) and declined with a 1- to 2-h terminal half-life (t(1/2)). Maximum concentrations of 602076 (C(max)) averaged 10% of the 602074 C(max) and reached T(max) in 2.5 h with a 4-h t(1/2). Food appeared to decrease the extent of absorption of the compound. Multiple dosing resulted in minimal accumulation, and the concentrations following multiple doses could be predicted using the single-dose data. Alamifovir was well tolerated and the pharmacokinetics were characterized in these studies.