RESUMO
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Criança , Geografia , Saúde Global , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Objetivos Organizacionais , Saúde Pública , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Nações UnidasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.
Assuntos
Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Infecções por HIV , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Humanos , Gravidez , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , HIV , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , África Subsaariana/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Background: Hypertension is the largest contributor to the global burden of disease. Emerging risk factors for cardiovascular disease include blood pressure variability (BPV), but evidence on BPV is lacking among older Nigerians. We reported BPV in a cohort of older persons at the University College Hospital (UCH), Ibadan. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of respondents aged >50 years within the Ibadan Ambulatory Blood Pressure Registry at the UCH, Ibadan, Nigeria. Socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits and anthropometric measurements were obtained. Results: Among 639 respondents, 332 (52.0%) were female. The blood pressure (BP) variables were strongly associated with age. Compared with younger age groups, mean diastolic BP (DBP) was less at an older age, whereas mean pulse pressure was greater. During the wake-up and sleep periods, mean DBP and mean arterial BP were less with each increasing age category, whereas mean pulse pressure was larger with each increasing age category. BP dipping, systolic, diastolic and mean arterial BP decreased with age. Overall, timed BPV increased significantly with increasing age. The prevalence of white-coat hypertension was greater among older participants than younger participants. Most respondents in the 50-59 years' age group were non-dippers (55.8%), whereas 33.7% of older respondents were reverse-dippers. Conclusion: Older persons experienced a greater abnormal circadian blood variation and greater BPV than younger people. In Nigeria, follow-up data are needed to determine the prognostic significance of these data in this population.
Assuntos
Monitorização Ambulatorial da Pressão Arterial , Hipertensão , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Pressão Sanguínea/fisiologia , Ritmo Circadiano , Feminino , Humanos , Hipertensão/complicações , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Nonrheumatic valvular diseases are common; however, no studies have estimated their global or national burden. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease, and other nonrheumatic valvular diseases were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: Vital registration data, epidemiologic survey data, and administrative hospital data were used to estimate disease burden using the Global Burden of Disease Study modeling framework, which ensures comparability across locations. Geospatial statistical methods were used to estimate disease for all countries, because data on nonrheumatic valvular diseases are extremely limited for some regions of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Results accounted for estimated level of disease severity as well as the estimated availability of valve repair or replacement procedures. DALYs and other measures of health-related burden were generated for both sexes and each 5-year age group, location, and year from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: Globally, CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease caused 102 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 82 700-107 900) and 35 700 (95% UI, 30 500-42 500) deaths, and 12.6 million (95% UI, 11.4 million-13.8 million) and 18.1 million (95% UI, 17.6 million-18.6 million) prevalent cases existed in 2017, respectively. A total of 2.5 million (95% UI, 2.3 million-2.8 million) DALYs were estimated as caused by nonrheumatic valvular diseases globally, representing 0.10% (95% UI, 0.09%-0.11%) of total lost health from all diseases in 2017. The number of DALYs increased for CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease between 1990 and 2017 by 101% (95% UI, 79%-117%) and 35% (95% UI, 23%-47%), respectively. There is significant geographic variation in the prevalence, mortality rate, and overall burden of these diseases, with highest age-standardized DALY rates of CAVD estimated for high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: These global and national estimates demonstrate that CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease are important causes of disease burden among older adults. Efforts to clarify modifiable risk factors and improve access to valve interventions are necessary if progress is to be made toward reducing, and eventually eliminating, the burden of these highly treatable diseases.
Assuntos
Insuficiência da Valva Aórtica/epidemiologia , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/epidemiologia , Valva Aórtica/patologia , Calcinose/epidemiologia , Saúde Global , Insuficiência da Valva Mitral/epidemiologia , Prolapso da Valva Mitral/epidemiologia , Distribuição por Idade , Valva Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagem , Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Insuficiência da Valva Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagem , Insuficiência da Valva Aórtica/mortalidade , Insuficiência da Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagem , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/mortalidade , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Calcinose/diagnóstico por imagem , Calcinose/mortalidade , Calcinose/cirurgia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Feminino , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Insuficiência da Valva Mitral/diagnóstico por imagem , Insuficiência da Valva Mitral/mortalidade , Insuficiência da Valva Mitral/cirurgia , Prolapso da Valva Mitral/diagnóstico por imagem , Prolapso da Valva Mitral/mortalidade , Prolapso da Valva Mitral/cirurgia , Prevalência , Qualidade de Vida , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
Assuntos
Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Ferimentos e Lesões , Humanos , Incidência , Expectativa de Vida , Morbidade , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Ferimentos e Lesões/mortalidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury. RESULTS: Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change. CONCLUSIONS: While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.
Assuntos
Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Ferimentos e Lesões , Acidentes de Trânsito , Ásia , Humanos , Morbidade , Mortalidade/tendências , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Ferimentos e Lesões/mortalidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
Assuntos
Pessoas com Deficiência , Carga Global da Doença , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Ferimentos e Lesões , Adolescente , Saúde Global , Humanos , Expectativa de VidaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.