Building a sustainable rural physician workforce.

CHAPTER 1: CHARACTERISING AUSTRALIA'S RURAL SPECIALIST PHYSICIAN WORKFORCE: THE PROFESSIONAL PROFILE AND PROFESSIONAL SATISFACTION OF JUNIOR DOCTORS AND CONSULTANTS: Objective: To assess differences in the demographic characteristics, professional profile and professional satisfaction of rural and metropolitan junior physicians and physician consultants in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional, population level national survey of the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life longitudinal cohort study (collected 2008-2016). Participants were specialist physicians from four career stage groups: pre-registrars (physician intent); registrars; new consultants (< 5 years since Fellowship); and consultants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Level of professional satisfaction across various job aspects, such as hours worked, working conditions, support networks and educational opportunities, comparing rural and metropolitan based physicians. RESULTS: Participants included 1587 pre-registrars (15% rural), 1745 physician registrars (9% rural), 421 new consultants (20% rural) and 1143 consultants (13% rural). Rural physicians of all career stages demonstrated equivalent professional satisfaction across most job aspects, compared with metropolitan physician counterparts. Some examples of differences in satisfaction included rural pre-registrars being less likely to agree they had good access to support and supervision from qualified consultants (odds ratio [OR], 0.6; 95% CI, 0.3-0.9) and rural consultants being more likely to agree they had a poorer professional support network (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-2.9). In terms of demographics, relatively more rural physicians had a rural background or were trained overseas. Although most junior physicians were women, female consultants were less likely to be working in a rural location (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.8). CONCLUSION: Junior physicians in metropolitan or rural settings have a similar professional experience, which is important in attracting future trainees. Increased opportunities for rural training should be prioritised, along with addressing concerns about the professional isolation and poorer support network of those in rural areas, not only among junior doctors but also consultants. Finally, making rural practice more attractive to female junior physicians could greatly improve the consultant physician distribution. CHAPTER 2: GENERAL PHYSICIANS AND PAEDIATRICIANS IN RURAL AUSTRALIA: THE SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF PROFESSIONAL IDENTITY: Objective: To explore the construction of professional identity among general physicians and paediatricians working in non-metropolitan areas. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with general physicians and paediatricians, plus informants from specialist colleges, government agencies and academia who were involved in policy and programs for the training and recruitment of specialists in rural locations across three states and two territories. This research is part of the Training Pathways and Professional Support for Building a Rural Physician Workforce Study, 2018-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Individual and collective descriptors of professional identity. RESULTS: We interviewed 36 key informants. Professional identity for general physicians and paediatricians working in regional, rural and remote Australia is grounded in the breadth of their training, but qualified by location - geographic location, population served or specific location, where social and cultural context specifically shapes practice. General physicians and paediatricians were deeply engaged with their local community and its economic vulnerability, and they described the population size and dynamics of local economies as determinants of viable practice. They often complemented their practice with formal or informal training in areas of special interest, but balanced their practice against subspecialist availability, also dependent on demographics. While valuing their professional roles, they showed limited inclination for industrial organisation. CONCLUSION: Despite limited consensus on identity descriptors, rural general physicians and paediatricians highly value generalism and their rural engagement. The structural and geographic bias that preferences urban areas will need to be addressed to further develop coordinated strategies for advanced training in rural contexts, for which collective identity is integral. CHAPTER 3: SUSTAINABLE RURAL PHYSICIAN TRAINING: LEADERSHIP IN A FRAGILE ENVIRONMENT: Objectives: To understand Royal Australasian College of Physicians (RACP) training contexts, including supervisor and trainee perspectives, and to identify contributors to the sustainability of training sites, including training quality. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A cross-sectional mixed-methods design was used. A national sample of RACP trainees and Fellows completed online surveys. Survey respondents who indicated willingness to participate in interviews were purposively recruited to cover perspectives from a range of geographic, demographic and training context parameters. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fellows' and trainees' work and life satisfaction, and their experiences of supervision and training, respectively, by geographic location. RESULTS: Fellows and trainees reported high levels of satisfaction, with one exception - inner regional Fellows reported lower satisfaction regarding opportunities to use their abilities. Not having a good support network was associated with lower satisfaction. Our qualitative findings indicate that a culture of undermining rural practice is prevalent and that good leadership at all levels is important to reduce negative impacts on supervisor and trainee availability, site accreditation and viability. Trainees described challenges in navigating training pathways, ensuring career development, and having the flexibility to meet family needs. The small number of Fellows in some sites poses challenges for supervisors and trainees and results in a blurring of roles; accreditation is an obstacle to provision of training at rural sites; and the overlap between service and training roles can be difficult for supervisors. CONCLUSION: Our qualitative findings emphasise the distinctive nature of regional specialist training, which can make it a fragile environment. Leadership at all levels is critical to sustaining accreditation and support for supervisors and trainees. CHAPTER 4: PRINCIPLES TO GUIDE TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL SUPPORT FOR A SUSTAINABLE RURAL SPECIALIST PHYSICIAN WORKFORCE: Objective: To draw on research conducted in the Building a Rural Physician Workforce project, the first national study on rural specialist physicians, to define a set of principles applicable to guiding training and professional support action. DESIGN: We used elements of the Delphi approach for systematic data collection and codesign, and applied a hybrid participatory action planning approach to achieve consensus on a set of principles. RESULTS: Eight interconnected foundational principles built around rural regions and rural people were identified: FP1, grow your own "connected to" place; FP2, select trainees invested in rural practice; FP3, ground training in community need; FP4, rural immersion - not exposure; FP5, optimise and invest in general medicine; FP6, include service and academic learning components; FP7, join up the steps in rural training; and FP8, plan sustainable specialist roles. CONCLUSION: These eight principles can guide training and professional support to build a sustainable rural physician workforce. Application of the principles, and coordinated action by stakeholders and the responsible organisations, are needed at national, state and local levels to achieve a sustainable rural physician workforce.

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk using waist circumference among Aboriginals in a remote Australian community.

BACKGROUND: Elevated waist circumference (WC) is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Aboriginals in Australia are at higher risk of CVD compared to non-Aboriginals. We examined the association between waist circumference and CVD, and developed a model for projecting absolute risk of cardiovascular disease using WC and age in one high risk Australian Aboriginal community. METHODS: We followed up 920 (470 men, 450 women) participants (more than 80% of the eligible population) aged 18 to 76 years, without CVD at baseline, for up to 20 years. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounding factors. Absolute risk was estimated using the Weibull regression model. RESULTS: Of 920 study participants, 156 males and 177 females developed CVD in the follow-up period. Incidence rates for males and females in the 4th WC quartile (Q4) were 38.3 (95% CI 29.6, 49.7) and 47.2 (95% CI 37.1, 60.3) respectively. Crude hazard ratios of CVD for Q4 WC group using Q1 (quartile 1) as the referent quartile were 2.9 (95% CI 1.8- 4.6) for males and 3.5 (95% CI 2.2- 5.5) for females. Association remained after controlling for age, smoking status and alcohol drinking status (HR = 1.8 for males and HR = 3.1 for females). At 45 years of age with baseline waist circumference of 100 cm, a male had an absolute CVD risk of 32.5%, while a female had a 30.6% risk of the disease. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of CVD among participants increased with increasing WC, and the relationship was accentuated with increasing age. The prediction model provides a tool for understanding the combined effects of WC with age on CVD events in the Australian Aboriginal community. It is simple and easily understood and will assist in identifying individuals at risk of CVD in relation to waist circumference values.

"Scary to get, more scary not to": COVID-19 vaccine acceptance among healthcare workers in Central Queensland, Australia, a cross-sectional survey.

Background: Behavioural and social drivers (BeSD) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine acceptance among Australian healthcare workers (HCW) living and working in regional areas are not well studied. Understanding local HCWs' COVID-19 risk perceptions and potential barriers to COVID-19 vaccine uptake is crucial in supporting rollout. We aimed to understand the COVID-19 vaccine drivers among HCW in Central Queensland (CQ), Australia. Method: A cross-sectional online survey of HCWs in CQ between 17 May and 31 May 2021, based on the BeSD framework adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Data for Action guidance, consisting of the five instrument domains: what people think and feel; social processes; motivations; practical issues; and vaccination uptake. Results: Of the 240 responding HCWs within Central Queensland Hospital and Health Service, 78% were female. Of the participating HCWs, 64% percent had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine; of those who had not yet received a vaccine, 53% said they were willing to receive one. Factors associated with vaccine acceptance included: belief that the vaccine was important for their health (81%; odds ratio (OR): 7.2; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.5-15.5); belief that their family and friends wanted them to have the vaccine (64%; OR: 6.7; 95% CI: 2.9-16.7); trust in the vaccine (72%; OR: 6.4; 95% CI: 3.5-12.0); and confidence in being able to answer patients' questions about the vaccine (99%). Conclusions: These findings suggest that a combination of communications and educational material framed around the benefits and social norms of vaccination, along with materials addressing vaccine safety concerns, will encourage HCW to take up a COVID-19 vaccine.

Notifiable diseases after implementation of COVID-19 public health prevention measures in Central Queensland, Australia.

ABSTRACT: The implementation of public health measures to control the current COVID-19 pandemic (such as wider lockdowns, overseas travel restrictions and physical distancing) is likely to have affected the spread of other notifiable diseases. This is a descriptive report of communicable disease surveillance in Central Queensland (CQ) for six months (1 April to 30 September 2020) after the introduction of physical distancing and wider lockdown measures in Queensland. The counts of notifiable communicable diseases in CQ in the six months were observed and compared with the average for the same months during the years 2015 to 2019. During the study's six months, there were notable decreases in notifications of most vaccine-preventable diseases such as influenza, pertussis and rotavirus. Conversely, notifications increased for disease groups such as blood-borne viruses, sexually transmitted infections and vector-borne diseases. There were no reported notifications for dengue fever and malaria which are mostly overseas acquired. The notifications of some communicable diseases in CQ were variably affected and the changes correlated with the implementation of the COVID-19 public health measures. BACKGROUND: The current COVID-19 pandemic has led to some significant changes to local, regional and national public health practices including social distancing and wider lockdown. These measures have been previously reported to be associated with reductions in the incidence of gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases as well as of other airborne transmitted agents.1,2 A preliminary analysis was conducted assessing the impact of these measures on nationally notifiable diseases across Australia;3 however, the impact of these measures on communicable diseases within regional Australia is not well established. Like most regional areas, Central Queensland (CQ) has a lower population density and considerable distance from major cities; it will be informative to understand how these measures impact on notifiable conditions in this regional setting. We aimed to identify the patterns of change in reported notifiable conditions to the Central Queensland Public Health Unit (CQPHU), during a six-month period (1 April to 30 September 2020) following the implementation of COVID-19 measures. Here, we compare these notifications to the surveillance data for the same six-month period for the previous five years (2015 to 2019). METHODS: The study encompasses all notifiable conditions reported from CQ, which covers approximately 226,000 population and is spread over 117,588 square kilometres. Communicable diseases data were retrieved from the Queensland Notifiable Conditions System (NoCS), an online epidemiological database, from 1 January 2015 to 30 September 2020. The data were collected under the Public Health Act 2005, a legislative authority that provides permission to access health information. Permission to publish was given by the Communicable Diseases Branch of Queensland. Data were extracted on selected notifiable diseases in Queensland: blood-borne viruses (BBV), gastrointestinal diseases, sexually transmissible infections (STIs), vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vector-borne diseases, zoonotic diseases and other diseases. For each disease, the count for six months following the implementation of COVID-19 public health measures (1 April to 30 September 2020) was compared with the average for the same six-month period during the years 2015 to 2019. RESULTS: From 1 April to 30 September 2020, after the implementation of Queensland's COVID-19 preventive measures, there was a decrease seen in several diseases notifications reported to the CQPHU, mostly VPDs, when compared with the same months for each of 2015 to 2019 and for the 5-year average (2015-2019) for those months (Table 1). However, increases in notifications for April-September 2020 were observed in a greater number of other notifiable disease groups.

Epidemiology of mumps outbreaks and the impact of an additional dose of MMR vaccine for outbreak control in regional Queensland, Australia, 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, there have been ongoing outbreaks of mumps reported in Northern and North-Western Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, Australia. We aimed to define the epidemiology of mumps outbreaks in Central Queensland, Australia between October 2017 and October 2018 and evaluate the effectiveness of an additional dose of measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine. METHODS: A retrospective case control study was conducted, including outbreak investigations with laboratory-confirmed cases of mumps and subsequent comparison with matched controls. We analysed mandatory notifications from the Queensland Health Notifiable Conditions System database and immunisation information from the Queensland Health Vaccination Information and Admin System (VIVAS) and the Australian Immunisation Register. RESULTS: Between October 2017 and October 2018, there were 93 cases of mumps reported in Central Queensland with three distinct outbreaks: a discrete Indigenous community; a correctional facility; and a boarding school. Among all cases, 74 (79.6%) were fully vaccinated and 14 (15.1%) were partially vaccinated with MMR vaccine. Eighty-six cases (92.5%) were reported among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. In all outbreaks, an additional dose of MMR vaccine was offered with 35.4%, 73.6% and 35.8% of the target population being immunised in the discrete Indigenous community, the correctional facility and the boarding school, respectively. Prior to this additional dose of MMR, the mumps attack rate was 31.0 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 24.2-39.0) per 1000 population, compared to the post-additional dose MMR attack rate of 10.6 (95% CI: 6.7-15.9) per 1000 population. CONCLUSION: An additional or booster dose of MMR should be included as an effective public health intervention strategy, particularly in communal or high-density living conditions to control mumps outbreaks in highly vaccinated populations.

Re-emergence of dengue virus in regional Queensland: 2019 dengue virus outbreak in Rockhampton, Central Queensland, Australia.

OBJECTIVE(S): To describe an autochthonous dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) outbreak in Central Queensland from May 2019 and subsequent public health actions. DESIGN AND SETTING: Public health outbreak investigation of locally acquired DENV-2 cases in Rockhampton, Central Queensland. This included laboratory investigations, associated mosquito vector surveillance, and control measures implemented in response to the outbreak. RESULTS: Twenty-one locally-acquired DENV-2 cases were identified during the Rockhampton outbreak (from 23 May to 7 October 2019): 13 laboratory-confirmed and eight probable cases. Clinical symptoms included lethargy (100%); fever (95%); headache (95%); and aches and pains (90%). Inspections of premises demonstrated that Aedes aegypti was present in 9.5% of those investigated which was more than half of the premises identified as containing mosquitoes. Nucleotide sequencing of a DENV-2 isolate recovered from the first confirmed case and DENV-2 RNA from an additional 5 patients indicated a single DENV-2 strain was responsible for the outbreak which was most closely related to DENV-2 strains from Southeast Asia. CONCLUSIONS: The 2019 DENV-2 outbreak in Rockhampton, Central Queensland, Australia, likely resulted from the importation of a strain, most closely related to DENV-2 strains from Southeast Asia and is the first reported outbreak in the region specifically implicating DENV-2. Given the presence of Aedes aegypti in Rockhampton, appropriate medical and mosquito avoidance advice; ongoing surveillance; and deployment of mosquito control strategies for the prevention of dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases should be priorities for this region.

Joint association between body fat and its distribution with all-cause mortality: A data linkage cohort study based on NHANES (1988-2011).

OBJECTIVE: Although obesity is recognized as an important risk of mortality, how the amount and distribution of body fat affect mortality risk is unclear. Furthermore, whether fat distribution confers any additional risk of mortality in addition to fat amount is not understood. METHODS: This data linkage cohort study included 16415 participants (8554 females) aged 18 to 89 years from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (1988-1994) and its linked mortality data (31 December 2011). Cox proportional hazard models and parametric survival models were used to estimate the association between body fat percentage (BF%), based on bioelectrical impedance analysis, and waist-hip ratio (WHR) with mortality. RESULTS: A total of 4999 deaths occurred during 19-year follow-up. A U-shaped association between BF% and mortality was found in both sexes, with the adjusted hazard ratios for other groups between 1.02 (95% confidence interval: 0.89, 1.18) and 2.10 (1.47, 3.01) when BF% groups of 25-30% in males and 30-35% in females were used as references. A non-linear relationship between WHR and mortality was detected in males, with the adjusted hazard ratios among other groups ranging from 1.05 (0.94, 1.18) to 1.52 (1.15, 2.00) compared with the WHR category of 0.95-1.0. However in females, the death risk constantly increased across the WHR spectrum. Joint impact of BF% and WHR suggested males with BF% of 25-30% and WHR of 0.95-1.0 and females with BF% of 30-35% and WHR <0.9 were associated with the lowest mortality risk and longest survival age compared with their counterparts in other categories. CONCLUSIONS: This study supported the use of body fat distribution in addition to fat amount in assessing the risk of all-cause mortality.

Body mass index and waist circumference as predictors of all-cause mortality in an Aboriginal Australian community.

OBJECTIVE: Although elevated body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) have been identified as risk factors for mortality, data from the Australian Aboriginal communities are scarce. This study examined the associations of BMI and WC with all-cause mortality in an Australian Aboriginal community. METHODS: A total of 934 Aboriginal adults, aged 18-76 years, who participated in a community-wide screening programme in Australia's Northern Territory from 1992 to 1998, were followed-up prospectively for up to 18 years for death outcomes. The hazard ratios for mortality were estimated by baseline BMI and WC. Age, sex, smoking and alcohol consumption status were adjusted for in multivariable analysis. RESULTS: In 14,750 person-years of follow-up, 216 deaths were recorded. For each standard deviation increase in BMI, the risk of all-cause death decreased by 9% (95% CI: 0.80-1.05); whereas for each SD increase in WC, the risk of all-cause mortality increased by 17% (95% CI: 1.03-1.33). The risk of mortality was lower in the 3rd BMI tertile compared to the 1st tertile for mortality after adjusting for WC, age, sex, smoking and alcohol consumption. Risk of death was higher in WC tertile 3 compared to tertile 1 after adjusting for BMI, age, sex, smoking and alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of all-cause mortality among participants increased with higher WC, while participants with relatively higher BMI had a lower mortality risk. WC had stronger association with mortality than did BMI. The results indicate the importance of assessing WC measures in studies conducted in Aboriginal Australia.

Life's Simple 7 and ischemic heart disease in the general Australian population.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association released 7 modifiable factors, Life's Simple 7, that are expected to improve cardiovascular health (CVH), but their contributions to ischemic heart disease (IHD) in the general Australians are not well clarified. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study based on 7499 adults (≥18 years) who have tested for total cholesterol and fasting plasma glucose as part of 2011-12 Australian Health Survey. Poisson regression analyses were used to estimate the incidence rate ratios and population attributable fractions of those factors to IHD prevalence. Participants were classified into three CVH groups based on the number of ideal metrics: inadequate (0-2), average (3-4), and optimal (5-7). Logistic regression analyses were performed to elucidate the relationship between overall CVH and IHD prevalence. RESULTS: 357 participants were self-reported having IHD condition, with a weighted prevalence of 3.3%. Physical inactivity, elevated body mass index (BMI) and total cholesterol (TC) were independently associated with IHD. Compared to the inadequate category, participants in the optimal and average categories have a 78% [adjusted odds ratio (OR), 0.22; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.03-1.96] and a 45% (adjusted OR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.39-0.77) lower IHD risk. One more optimal metric was associated with an 18% lower IHD risk (adjusted OR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that physical inactivity, raised BMI and elevated TC were independent modifiable risk factors of IHD in the general Australian population. The improvement of overall CVH may also reduce IHD risk among the general Australian adults.

Predicting absolute risk of type 2 diabetes using age and waist circumference values in an aboriginal Australian community.

OBJECTIVES: To predict in an Australian Aboriginal community, the 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes associated with waist circumference and age on baseline examination. METHOD: A sample of 803 diabetes-free adults (82.3% of the age-eligible population) from baseline data of participants collected from 1992 to 1998 were followed-up for up to 20 years till 2012. The Cox-proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effects of waist circumference and other risk factors, including age, smoking and alcohol consumption status, of males and females on prediction of type 2 diabetes, identified through subsequent hospitalisation data during the follow-up period. The Weibull regression model was used to calculate the absolute risk estimates of type 2 diabetes with waist circumference and age as predictors. RESULTS: Of 803 participants, 110 were recorded as having developed type 2 diabetes, in subsequent hospitalizations over a follow-up of 12633.4 person-years. Waist circumference was strongly associated with subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with P<0.0001 for both genders and remained statistically significant after adjusting for confounding factors. Hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes associated with 1 standard deviation increase in waist circumference were 1.7 (95%CI 1.3 to 2.2) for males and 2.1 (95%CI 1.7 to 2.6) for females. At 45 years of age with baseline waist circumference of 100 cm, a male had an absolute diabetic risk of 10.9%, while a female had a 14.3% risk of the disease. CONCLUSIONS: The constructed model predicts the 10-year absolute diabetes risk in an Aboriginal Australian community. It is simple and easily understood and will help identify individuals at risk of diabetes in relation to waist circumference values. Our findings on the relationship between waist circumference and diabetes on gender will be useful for clinical consultation, public health education and establishing WC cut-off points for Aboriginal Australians.

Waist circumference values equivalent to body mass index points for predicting absolute cardiovascular disease risks among adults in an Aboriginal community: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: There have been suggestions that currently recommended waist circumference (WC) cut-off points for Australians of European origin may not be applicable to Aboriginal people who have different body habitus profiles. We aimed to generate equivalent WC values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) points for identifying absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: An Aboriginal community in Australia's Northern Territory. PARTICIPANTS: From 1992 to 1998, 920 adults without CVD, with age, WC and BMI measurements were followed-up for up to 20 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF) events during the follow-up period ascertained from hospitalisation data. We generated WC values with 10-year absolute risks equivalent for the development of CVD as BMI values (20-34 kg/m(2)) using the Weibull accelerated time-failure model. RESULTS: There were 211 incident cases of CVD over 13,669 person-years of follow-up. At the average age of 35 years, WC values with absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks equivalent to BMI of 25 kg/m(2) were 91.5, 91.8 and 91.7 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding WC values were 92.5, 92.7 and 93 cm for females. WC values with equal absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) were 101.7, 103.1 and 102.6 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding values were 99.2, 101.6 and 101.5 cm for females. Association between WC and CVD did not depend on gender (p=0.54). CONCLUSIONS: WC ranging from 91 to 93 cm was equivalent to BMI 25 kg/m(2) for overweight, and 99 to 103 cm was equivalent to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) for obesity in terms of predicting 10-year absolute CVD risk. Replicating the absolute risk method in other Aboriginal communities will further validate the WC values generated for future development of WC cut-off points for Aboriginal people.

Corresponding waist circumference and body mass index values based on 10-year absolute type 2 diabetes risk in an Australian Aboriginal community.

OBJECTIVE: There is a lack of waist circumference (WC) thresholds to identify Aboriginal individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes. We generated gender-specific WC values with equivalent 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes as body mass index (BMI) points in an Australian Aboriginal community to contribute to guidelines needed for establishing WC cut-off points for Aboriginals. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort of 803 adult participants free from type 2 diabetes in an Aboriginal community was followed up for up to 20 years. We derived WC values with absolute risks equivalent for the development of type 2 diabetes as BMI values (20-35 kg/m(2)) using the Weibull accelerated failure-time model. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 15.7 years, 110 participants developed type 2 diabetes. Absolute risk of type 2 diabetes increased as WC increased, ranging from 3.52% (WC=77.5 cm) to 14.14% (WC=119.9 cm) in males, and 5.04% (WC=79.5 cm) to 24.25% (WC=113.7 cm) in females. In males, WC values with same absolute risks of type 2 diabetes as BMI values were 77.5 cm for BMI=20 kg/m(2), 91.5 cm for BMI=25 kg/m(2) (overweight threshold), 105.7 cm for BMI=30 kg/m(2) (obesity threshold) and 119.9 cm for BMI=35 kg/m(2). In females, WC values were 79.5 cm for BMI=20 kg/m(2), 90.9 cm for BMI=25 kg/m(2), 102.3 cm for BMI=30 kg/m(2) and 113.7 cm for BMI=35 kg/m(2). Interaction between WC and gender was not statistically significant (p=0.53). CONCLUSIONS: The absolute risk of type 2 diabetes increased with higher WC measured at baseline screening. Males were not significantly different from females in the association between WC and type 2 diabetes. Our findings are useful contributions for future establishment of WC cut-off points for identifying high-risk individuals in Aboriginal people.

Gender variations in waist circumference levels between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australian populations: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To compare gender-specific waist circumference (WC) levels of Aboriginal Australians with non-Aboriginal Australians. METHODS: A systematic search on Medline, PubMed, EMBASE and Google Scholar databases was conducted to identify papers that reported gender-specific waist circumference (WC) estimates of participants from the age of 15 years and above among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. Means and their 95% confidence intervals of gender differences in WC, height and weight were recorded or calculated where they were not provided. Gender-specific WC, height and weight mean estimates were pooled and the I(2) statistic was used to test heterogeneity among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. RESULTS: Of 17 selected cross-sectional studies, 9 focused on Aboriginal and 8 on non-Aboriginal Australians. Seven studies reported significantly higher WC estimates among indigenous females than males. On the other hand, non-indigenous males had significantly higher WC levels than females. Males had greater height and weight estimates than females in both groups. CONCLUSION: Although indigenous women were shorter and had lower weight estimates, they had greater WC levels than indigenous men. This is the first systematic review to assess the gender-specific differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. The findings of this review warrant more efforts to understand and reduce the high prevalence of central obesity and related chronic diseases among Aboriginal women.