Towards malaria elimination: analysis of travel history and case forecasting using the SARIMA model in Limpopo Province.

Despite various efforts and policy implementation aimed at controlling and eliminating malaria, imported malaria remains a major factor posing challenges in places that have made progress in malaria elimination. The persistence of malaria in Limpopo Province has largely been attributed to imported cases, thus reducing the pace of achieving the malaria-free target by 2025. Data from the Limpopo Malaria Surveillance Database System (2010-2020) was analyzed, and a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed to forecast malaria incidence based on the incidence data's temporal autocorrelation. The study found that out of 57,288 people that were tested, 51,819 (90.5%) cases were local while 5469 (9.5%) cases were imported. Mozambique (44.9%), Zimbabwe (35.7%), and Ethiopia (8.5%) were the highest contributors of imported cases. The month of January recorded the highest incidence of cases while the least was in August. Analysis of the yearly figures showed an increasing trend and seasonal variation of recorded malaria cases. The SARIMA (3,1,1) X (3,1,0) [12] model used in predicting expected malaria case incidences for three consecutive years showed a decline in malaria incidences. The study demonstrated that imported malaria accounted for 9.5% of all cases. There is a need to re-focus on health education campaigns on malaria prevention methods and strengthening of indoor residual spray programs. Bodies collaborating toward malaria elimination in the Southern Africa region need to ensure a practical delivery of the objectives.

Malaria diagnostic methods with the elimination goal in view.

Malaria control measures have been in use for years but have not completely curbed the spread of infection. Ultimately, global elimination is the goal. A major playmaker in the various approaches to reaching the goal is the issue of proper diagnosis. Various diagnostic techniques were adopted in different regions and geographical locations over the decades, and these have invariably produced diverse outcomes. In this review, we looked at the various approaches used in malaria diagnostics with a focus on methods favorably used during pre-elimination and elimination phases as well as in endemic regions. Microscopy, rapid diagnostic testing (RDT), loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are common methods applied depending on prevailing factors, each with its strengths and limitations. As the drive toward the elimination goal intensifies, the search for ideal, simple, fast, and reliable point-of-care diagnostic tools is needed more than ever before to be used in conjunction with a functional surveillance system supported by the ideal vaccine.

Molecular detection of sub-microscopic infections and Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 and 3 gene deletions in pre-elimination settings of South Africa.

South Africa's efforts toward eliminating malaria have positioned the country in the pre-elimination stage. Imported and sub-microscopic cases still contribute to the persistence of malaria in regions of low transmission as identified in this study where diagnostics is built largely on the use of Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT). However, the presence of Pfhrp2/3 gene deletion is known to interfere with the accuracy of diagnosis with the use of RDT. Malaria elimination and detection of Pfhrp2/3 gene deletion in the pre-elimination setting requires accurate molecular surveillance. With the core objective of this study being the determination of the presence sub-microscopic malaria cases and deleted Pfhrp2/3 gene markers, a total of 354 samples were collected from five districts of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. These samples were prepared for molecular analysis using primers and PCR conditions specific for amplification of 18S rRNA and msp-1gene. Positive amplicons were analysed for the presence of Pfhrp2/3 and flanking genes, along with Sanger sequencing and phylogenetic studies. Out of 354 samples collected 339 were tested negative with PfHRP2 based RDTs. Of these Pfhrp2 and Pfhrp3 gene deletions were confirmed in 94.7% (18/19) and 100% (19/19) respectively. High migration rate (75%) among the study participants was noted and phylogenetic analysis of sequenced isolates showed close evolutionary relatedness with India, United Kingdom, Iran, and Myanmar and China isolates. Molecular-based test is recommended as an essential surveillance tool for malaria management programs as the target focuses on elimination.