Validation of discriminant functions from the rib necks in two Portuguese adult identified populations.

Sexual dimorphism is the basis for sex estimation research in skeletal remains, helping the positive identification of individuals in forensic backgrounds. In this regard, it has been proved that the metrical analysis of the costal neck of the first four ribs in Spanish contemporary adult skeletons shows high sexual dimorphism, especially in the first rib. However, the validation of any method developed in identified skeletal collections must be compulsorily reproduced in other skeletonized sets to verify either its potential application in individuals from other locations, or the existence of possible biases associated with inter-population variation. Due to the geographical and socioeconomic proximity between Spain and Portugal, this paper aims to check the utility of the discriminant functions designed by Partido-Navadijo et al. (2021) in the two skeletal collections of the University of Coimbra (Portugal). Results show the utility of these discriminant functions in Portuguese population, with frequencies of cases correctly assigned reaching up to 93.6% in the Coimbra Identified Skeletal Collection (CISC); and up to 92.6% in the 21st Century Identified Skeletal Collection (CEI/XXI). However, two particularities between the Spanish and Portuguese osteological assemblages can be highlighted: the possible existence of secular changes in relation to the CISC collection (1904-1938); and a reversal in the degree of costal dimorphism, being the third and fourth ribs of the CEI/XXI collection more dimorphic than the first ones.

Age estimation in infant and prenatal individuals through the metric development of the pars petrosa and squamosal portion of the temporal bone.

This study proposes an assessment of the accuracy of the Fazekas and Kósa and Nagaoka methods by measuring the squamosal and petrous portions of the temporal bone, whose application in the Mediterranean population is not recommended. Therefore, our proposal is a new formula to estimate the age of skeletal remains from individuals at 5 months gestational age to 1.5 postnatal years with the temporal bone. The proposed equation was calculated on a Mediterranean sample identified from the cemetery of San José, Granada (n = 109). The mathematical model used is the exponential regression of the estimated age for each measure and sex, and both in combination, using an inverse calibration and cross-validation model. In addition, the estimation errors and the percentage of individuals within a 95% confidence interval were calculated. The lateral development of the skull, especially the growth of the length of the petrous portion, showed the greatest accuracy, while its counterpart, the width of the pars petrosa, showed the lowest accuracy, so its use is discouraged. The positive results from this paper should be useful in both forensic and bioarchaeological contexts.

Age estimation in infant skeletal remains by measurements of the pars lateralis.

The objectives of this work were to validate two published methods for subadult age estimation based on measurements of the pars lateralis, and to develop a new method based on a wider set of measurements using the Granada Osteological Collection. The pars lateralis of 127 individuals from 6 months prenatal to 4 years of age were measured, taking 6 measurements of the body, the anterior synchondrosis and the condyle. Length and width were used to validate the published methods. Regression functions using age as the independent variable were calculated using each of the six measurements taken, and functions for age estimation were obtained through classical calibration. Functions for calculation of the 95% confidence interval of the estimates were obtained through linear regression using the estimation errors. In the validation of the previous methods, one method showed a linear tendency of the differences, which can be attributed to a circularity in reasoning in the original work. In the other method, a tendency towards overestimation was found, which can be attributed to the limitations of the method itself. The new functions have a consistency rate of 92.2% to 97.1%; the functions derived from all measurements are useful from 6 months prenatal to 2 years of age. Moreover, the functions obtained are applicable to incomplete pars lateralis, allowing for age estimation in a wide set of contexts and providing straightforward age estimates with their respective margin of error.

Utility of the sternal synostosis for age-at-death estimation in a Mediterranean population.

Age estimation is essential for the identification of skeletal remains in Forensic Anthropology. Numerous studies have been performed on diverse regions of the skeleton, including the synostosis of the sternal segments. In this sense, the fusion of the different sternal segments was assessed to analyze whether it had a correlation with age-at-death in a Mediterranean population. A total of 189 sternums which belonged to individuals between the ages of 20 and 98 from both sexes (56.6% males; 43.4% females), from the San José's Cemetery of Granada Contemporary Collection (Spain), were selected. Scores ranging from 1 to 3 were assigned in accordance with the degree of manubrio-sternal fusion and sterno-xyphoidal fusion. Cohen's kappa coefficient for intra- and inter-observer error was performed and then chi-square test was run to analyze any correlation between the stage of synostosis and the skeletal age. Only the sterno-xyphoidal fusion, which starts between 30 and 39 years old, provided a predictable result, as the manubrium and the sternal body usually remain without fusion. This study demonstrates a direct correlation between fusion of the xyphoid process and chronological age.

Discriminant functions for sex estimation using the rib necks in a Spanish population.

One of the first steps in the identification of human remains is sex estimation. Discriminant functions are very useful for this purpose, as they are based on the fundamental premise of the sexual dimorphism in osseous remains. However, the absence of studies of this kind in the thoracic cage is visible, and adequate cause to justify this work. To this purpose, we analysed and measured a set of ribs, R1 to R4, belonging to skeletons of contemporary chronology (1970-2010), in order to obtain discriminant functions enabling sex estimation through equations applied to the rib neck. The sample comes from the Cemetery of San José, which is located at the Laboratory of Anthropology at the University of Granada. All data from this sample was known: ancestry, sex, age-at-death and cause of death. Results showed a percentage of success of approximately 80-88% in ribs R2 to R4, and approximately 85-90% in R1, reaching up to 93.2%. Results from intra-/inter-observer error tests show excellent reproducibility of the method. The data confirms that it is possible to estimate sex from the rib neck.

Correlation of the human pubic symphysis surface with age-at-death: a novel quantitative method based on a bandpass filter.

Age-at-death estimation from skeletal remains typically utilizes the roughness of pubic symphysis articular surfaces. This study presents a new quantitative method adapting a tool from geometric morphometrics, bandpass filtering of partial warp bending energy to extract only age-related changes of the surfaces. The study sample consisted of 440 surface-scanned symphyseal pubic bones from men between 14 and 82 years of age, which were landmarked with 102 fixed and surface semilandmarks. From the original sample, 371 specimens within Procrustes distance of 0.05 of the side-specific average were selected. For this subsample, age was correlated with total bending energy (calculated as summed squared partial warps amplitudes) for a wide range of plausible bandpass filters. For our subsample's 188 right-side surfaces, the correlation between age and bandpass filtered versions of bending energy peaks relatively sharply at r = -0.648 for ages up through 49 years against the first seven partial warp amplitudes only. The finding for left symphyses is similar. The results demonstrate that below the age 50, the symphyseal surface form changes most systematically related to age may be best detected by a lowpass-filtered version of bending energy: signals at the largest geometric scales of roughness rather than its full spectrum. Combining this method with information from other skeletal features could further improve age-at-death estimation based on the symphyseal pubic surface.

Morphometric research and sex estimation of lumbar vertebrae in a contemporary Spanish population.

In the identification and reconstruction of the biological profile of skeletal remains in physical and forensic anthropology, sex estimation is a fundamental step, and is essential to achieve methods that allow the highest allocation accuracy. This study proposes a method to estimate the sex of skeletal remains using lumbar vertebrae. A total of 33 linear measurements for each lumbar vertebra were taken in 94 identified, contemporary, and adult skeletal remains (46 male and 48 female) from the cemetery of San José in Granada. The sexual dimorphism of each variable was analyzed, an intra- and interobserver error analysis was developed to assess the variables with best concordance, and the discriminant equations were obtained through a binary logistic regression analysis. All lumbar vertebrae show statistically significant sexual dimorphism with higher values in males than in females. Equations with an allocation accuracy of between 80% and 94.5% were obtained, showing that the lumbar vertebrae are a useful alternative for sex estimation when other skeletal elements are not well-preserved or available. The differences of biogeographic history between populations could translate into morphometric differences, which means that it is not advisable to use discriminant equations in a universal way. In spite of the high allocation accuracy of the equations developed, they should be applied in adults from populations similar to the present study to obtain reliable results of sexual estimation, until its validation in other populations.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and traffic noise and incident hypertension in seven cohorts of the European study of cohorts for air pollution effects (ESCAPE).

Aims: We investigated whether traffic-related air pollution and noise are associated with incident hypertension in European cohorts. Methods and results: We included seven cohorts of the European study of cohorts for air pollution effects (ESCAPE). We modelled concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), ≤10 µm (PM10), >2.5, and ≤10 µm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2.5 absorbance), and nitrogen oxides at the addresses of participants with land use regression. Residential exposure to traffic noise was modelled at the facade according to the EU Directive 2002/49/EC. We assessed hypertension as (i) self-reported and (ii) measured (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg or intake of BP lowering medication (BPLM). We used Poisson regression with robust variance estimation to analyse associations of traffic-related exposures with incidence of hypertension, controlling for relevant confounders, and combined the results from individual studies with random-effects meta-analysis. Among 41 072 participants free of self-reported hypertension at baseline, 6207 (15.1%) incident cases occurred within 5-9 years of follow-up. Incidence of self-reported hypertension was positively associated with PM2.5 (relative risk (RR) 1.22 [95%-confidence interval (CI):1.08; 1.37] per 5 µg/m³) and PM2.5 absorbance (RR 1.13 [95% CI:1.02; 1.24] per 10 - 5m - 1). These estimates decreased slightly upon adjustment for road traffic noise. Road traffic noise was weakly positively associated with the incidence of self-reported hypertension. Among 10 896 participants at risk, 3549 new cases of measured hypertension occurred. We found no clear associations with measured hypertension. Conclusion: Long-term residential exposures to air pollution and noise are associated with increased incidence of self-reported hypertension.

The Influence of Meteorological Factors and Atmospheric Pollutants on the Risk of Preterm Birth.

Atmospheric pollutants and meteorological conditions are suspected to be causes of preterm birth. We aimed to characterize their possible association with the risk of preterm birth (defined as birth occurring before 37 completed gestational weeks). We pooled individual data from 13 birth cohorts in 11 European countries (71,493 births from the period 1994-2011, European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)). City-specific meteorological data from routine monitors were averaged over time windows spanning from 1 week to the whole pregnancy. Atmospheric pollution measurements (nitrogen oxides and particulate matter) were combined with data from permanent monitors and land-use data into seasonally adjusted land-use regression models. Preterm birth risks associated with air pollution and meteorological factors were estimated using adjusted discrete-time Cox models. The frequency of preterm birth was 5.0%. Preterm birth risk tended to increase with first-trimester average atmospheric pressure (odds ratio per 5-mbar increase = 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.11), which could not be distinguished from altitude. There was also some evidence of an increase in preterm birth risk with first-trimester average temperature in the -5°C to 15°C range, with a plateau afterwards (spline coding, P = 0.08). No evidence of adverse association with atmospheric pollutants was observed. Our study lends support for an increase in preterm birth risk with atmospheric pressure.

Proposal of new regression formulae for the estimation of age in infant skeletal remains from the metric study of the pars basilaris.

In the context of physical and forensic anthropology, when a child's skeleton is damaged or in poor condition, which is common, many of the metric methods for the estimation of skeletal age cannot be used. In these circumstances, those more resistant bones, such as the pars basilaris, will be most useful. The aims of this study were to test existing methods for estimating skeletal age from the metric study of the pars basilaris and to propose new regression formulae. One hundred fourteen individuals aged between 5 months of gestation and 6 years were analyzed; seven measures were taken from each pars basilaris using a digital caliper. The chronological age was compared with the estimated age using the methods published by Fazekas and Kósa in 1978 and by Scheuer and MacLaughlin in 1994. New regression formulae are proposed, obtained by classical calibration, which include confidence intervals at 50 and 97.5 % to express the error. With both methods, significant differences were observed; the method of Fazekas and Kósa shows a tendency to underestimate the age, and the method of Scheuer and MacLaughlin tends to overestimate it. The proposed formulae represent a good tool for estimating age in many different contexts because they are relatively easy to apply, although other analysis systems, such as Bayesian approach or geometric morphometry, offer more robust and effective results.

Validation methods of Fazekas and Kósa and Molleson and Cox for age estimation of the ilium in Western Mediterranean non-adult population: proposal of new regression formulas.

The purpose of this study is to test the applicability of the age estimation methods of Fazekas and Kósa [1] and Molleson and Cox [2] in Western Mediterranean non-adults and to develop accurate and rapidly applied formulas for their age estimation, using a sample of 149 non-adults of known sex and age from the cemetery of San José in Granada (Spain). Measurements have been taken of the maximum length and width of each ilium for application of the formulas of Fazekas and Kósa [1] and Molleson and Cox [2]. There has been no significant intra- or inter-examiner variation in measurements. The documented age of the individuals has been underestimated with the Fazekas and Kósa method and overestimated with Molleson and Cox. Based on these findings, new formulas are proposed for the age estimation of non-adults in Western Mediterranean populations.

Validation of the sex estimation method elaborated by Schutkowski in the Granada Osteological Collection of identified infant and young children: Analysis of the controversy between the different ways of analyzing and interpreting the results.

Sex estimation of juveniles in the Physical and Forensic Anthropology context is currently a task with serious difficulties because the discriminatory bone characteristics are minimal until puberty. Also, the small number of osteological collections of children available for research has made it difficult to develop effective methodologies in this regard. This study tested the characteristics of the ilium and jaw proposed by Schutkowski in 1993 for estimation of sex in subadults. The study sample consisted of 109 boys and 76 girls, ranging in age from 5 months of gestation to 6 years, from the identified osteological collection of Granada (Spain). For the analysis and interpretation of the results, we have proposed changes from previous studies because we believe they raised methodological errors relating to the calculation of probabilities of success and sex distribution in the sample. The results showed correct assignment probabilities much lower than those obtained by Schutkowski as well as by other authors. The best results were obtained with the angle and depth of the sciatic notch, with 0.73 and 0.80 probability of correct assignment respectively if the male trait was observed. The results obtained with the other criteria were too small to be valid in the context of Physical or Forensic Anthropology. From our results, we concluded that Schutkowski method should not be used in forensic context, and that the sciatic notch is the most dimorphic trait in subadults and, therefore, the most appropriate to develop more effective methods for estimating sex.

Development of land use regression models for nitrogen dioxide, ultrafine particles, lung deposited surface area, and four other markers of particulate matter pollution in the Swiss SAPALDIA regions.

BACKGROUND: Land Use Regression (LUR) is a popular method to explain and predict spatial contrasts in air pollution concentrations, but LUR models for ultrafine particles, such as particle number concentration (PNC) are especially scarce. Moreover, no models have been previously presented for the lung deposited surface area (LDSA) of ultrafine particles. The additional value of ultrafine particle metrics has not been well investigated due to lack of exposure measurements and models. METHODS: Air pollution measurements were performed in 2011 and 2012 in the eight areas of the Swiss SAPALDIA study at up to 40 sites per area for NO2 and at 20 sites in four areas for markers of particulate air pollution. We developed multi-area LUR models for biannual average concentrations of PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance, PM10, PMcoarse, PNC and LDSA, as well as alpine, non-alpine and study area specific models for NO2, using predictor variables which were available at a national level. Models were validated using leave-one-out cross-validation, as well as independent external validation with routine monitoring data. RESULTS: Model explained variance (R(2)) was moderate for the various PM mass fractions PM2.5 (0.57), PM10 (0.63) and PMcoarse (0.45), and was high for PM2.5 absorbance (0.81), PNC (0.87) and LDSA (0.91). Study-area specific LUR models for NO2 (R(2) range 0.52-0.89) outperformed combined-area alpine (R (2) = 0.53) and non-alpine (R (2) = 0.65) models in terms of both cross-validation and independent external validation, and were better able to account for between-area variability. Predictor variables related to traffic and national dispersion model estimates were important predictors. CONCLUSIONS: LUR models for all pollutants captured spatial variability of long-term average concentrations, performed adequately in validation, and could be successfully applied to the SAPALDIA cohort. Dispersion model predictions or area indicators served well to capture the between area variance. For NO2, applying study-area specific models was preferable over applying combined-area alpine/non-alpine models. Correlations between pollutants were higher in the model predictions than in the measurements, so it will remain challenging to disentangle their health effects.

Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis.

Ambient ultrafine particle levels at residential and reference sites in urban and rural Switzerland.

Although there is evidence that ultrafine particles (UFP) do affect human health there are currently no legal ambient standards. The main reasons are the absence of spatially resolved exposure data to investigate long-term health effects and the challenge of defining representative reference sites for monitoring given the high dependence of UFP on proximity to sources. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the spatial distribution of UFP in four areas of the Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA) and to investigate the representativeness of routine air monitoring stations for residential sites in these areas. Repeated UFP measurements during three seasons have been conducted at a total of 80 residential sites and four area specific reference sites over a median duration of 7 days. Arithmetic mean residential PNC scattered around the median of 10,800 particles/cm(3) (interquartile range [IQR] = 7800 particles/cm(3)). Spatial within area contrasts (90th/10th percentile ratios) were around two; increased contrasts were observed during weekday rush-hours. Temporal UFP patterns were comparable at reference and residential sites in all areas. Our data show that central monitoring sites can represent residential conditions when locations are well chosen with respect to the local sources--namely traffic. For epidemiological research, locally resolved spatial models are needed to estimate individuals' long-term exposures to UFP of outdoor origin at home, during commute and at work.

Land use regression models for crustal and traffic-related PM2.5 constituents in four areas of the SAPALDIA study.

Many studies have documented adverse health effects of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but there is still limited knowledge regarding the causal relationship between specific sources of PM2.5 and such health effects. The spatial variability of PM2.5 constituents and sources, as a exposure assessment strategy for investigating source contributions to health effects, has been little explored so far. Between 2011 and 2012, three measurement campaigns of PM and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were performed in 80 sites across four areas of the Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung and heart Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA). Reflectance analysis and energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (XRF) were performed on PM2.5 filter samples to estimate light absorbance and trace element concentrations, respectively. Three air pollution source factors were identified using principal-component factor analysis: vehicular, crustal, and long-range transport. Land use regression (LUR) models were developed for temporally-adjusted scores of each factor, combining the four study areas. Model performance was assessed using two cross-validation methods. Model explained variance was high for the vehicular factor (R(2)=0.76), moderate for the crustal factor (R(2)=0.46), and low for the long-range transport factor (R(2)=0.19). The cross-validation methods suggested that models for the vehicular and crustal factors moderately accounted for both the between and within-area variability, and therefore can be applied to the four study areas to estimate long-term exposures within the SAPALDIA study population. The combination of source apportionment techniques and LUR modelling may help in identifying air pollution sources and disentangling their contribution to observed health effects in epidemiologic studies.

Evaluation of the maximum length of deciduous teeth for estimation of the age of infants and young children: proposal of new regression formulas.

The methodology used to identify individuals in forensic anthropology requires a minimum degree of precision and accuracy and should be based on identified and representative samples. Achievement of these objectives in infant skeletons is hampered by the scarcity of appropriate samples. The dental age estimation methods of Liversidge et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 90: 307-313, 1993) and Deutsch et al. (Growth 49: 207-17, 1985) were applied to the Granada osteological collection of identified infants (Granada, Spain) in order to evaluate its applicability in a Mediterranean population. Significant differences were found between the estimated and real ages in both cases. Based on the measurements obtained in 140 fetuses and infants, new regression formulas were developed to estimate age from the metric study on deciduous teeth. Independent functions are provided for each deciduous maxillary and mandibular tooth in each sex, along with the margin of error (95% confidence interval). These formulas appear to offer one of the best methods available for estimating the age of Mediterranean infants in forensic anthropology settings.

Measurement error in epidemiologic studies of air pollution based on land-use regression models.

Land-use regression (LUR) models are increasingly used to estimate air pollution exposure in epidemiologic studies. These models use air pollution measurements taken at a small set of locations and modeling based on geographical covariates for which data are available at all study participant locations. The process of LUR model development commonly includes a variable selection procedure. When LUR model predictions are used as explanatory variables in a model for a health outcome, measurement error can lead to bias of the regression coefficients and to inflation of their variance. In previous studies dealing with spatial predictions of air pollution, bias was shown to be small while most of the effect of measurement error was on the variance. In this study, we show that in realistic cases where LUR models are applied to health data, bias in health-effect estimates can be substantial. This bias depends on the number of air pollution measurement sites, the number of available predictors for model selection, and the amount of explainable variability in the true exposure. These results should be taken into account when interpreting health effects from studies that used LUR models.

Chronic burden of near-roadway traffic pollution in 10 European cities (APHEKOM network).

Recent epidemiological research suggests that near road traffic-related pollution may cause chronic disease, as well as exacerbation of related pathologies, implying that the entire "chronic disease progression" should be attributed to air pollution, no matter what the proximate cause was. We estimated the burden of childhood asthma attributable to air pollution in 10 European cities by calculating the number of cases of 1) asthma caused by near road traffic-related pollution, and 2) acute asthma events related to urban air pollution levels. We then expanded our approach to include coronary heart diseases in adults. Derivation of attributable cases required combining concentration-response function between exposures and the respective health outcome of interest (obtained from published literature), an estimate of the distribution of selected exposures in the target population, and information about the frequency of the assessed morbidities. Exposure to roads with high vehicle traffic, a proxy for near road traffic-related pollution, accounted for 14% of all asthma cases. When a causal relationship between near road traffic-related pollution and asthma is assumed, 15% of all episodes of asthma symptoms were attributable to air pollution. Without this assumption, only 2% of asthma symptoms were attributable to air pollution. Similar patterns were found for coronary heart diseases in older adults. Pollutants along busy roads are responsible for a large and preventable share of chronic disease and related acute exacerbations in European urban areas.