Forecasting of influenza activity and associated hospital admission burden and estimating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on 2019/20 winter season in Hong Kong.

Like other tropical and subtropical regions, influenza viruses can circulate year-round in Hong Kong. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant decrease in influenza activity. The objective of this study was to retrospectively forecast influenza activity during the year 2020 and assess the impact of COVID-19 public health social measures (PHSMs) on influenza activity and hospital admissions in Hong Kong. Using weekly surveillance data on influenza virus activity in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2019, we developed a statistical modeling framework to forecast influenza virus activity and associated hospital admissions. We conducted short-term forecasts (1-4 weeks ahead) and medium-term forecasts (1-13 weeks ahead) for the year 2020, assuming no PHSMs were implemented against COVID-19. We estimated the reduction in transmissibility, peak magnitude, attack rates, and influenza-associated hospitalization rate resulting from these PHSMs. For short-term forecasts, mean ambient ozone concentration and school holidays were found to contribute to better prediction performance, while absolute humidity and ozone concentration improved the accuracy of medium-term forecasts. We observed a maximum reduction of 44.6% (95% CI: 38.6% - 51.9%) in transmissibility, 75.5% (95% CI: 73.0% - 77.6%) in attack rate, 41.5% (95% CI: 13.9% - 55.7%) in peak magnitude, and 63.1% (95% CI: 59.3% - 66.3%) in cumulative influenza-associated hospitalizations during the winter-spring period of the 2019/2020 season in Hong Kong. The implementation of PHSMs to control COVID-19 had a substantial impact on influenza transmission and associated burden in Hong Kong. Incorporating information on factors influencing influenza transmission improved the accuracy of our predictions.

Pandemic fatigue impedes mitigation of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong has implemented stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) to curb each of the four COVID-19 epidemic waves since January 2020. The third wave between July and September 2020 was brought under control within 2 m, while the fourth wave starting from the end of October 2020 has taken longer to bring under control and lasted at least 5 mo. Here, we report the pandemic fatigue as one of the potential reasons for the reduced impact of PHSMs on transmission in the fourth wave. We contacted either 500 or 1,000 local residents through weekly random-digit dialing of landlines and mobile telephones from May 2020 to February 2021. We analyze the epidemiological impact of pandemic fatigue by using the large and detailed cross-sectional telephone surveys to quantify risk perception and self-reported protective behaviors and mathematical models to incorporate population protective behaviors. Our retrospective prediction suggests that an increase of 100 daily new reported cases would lead to 6.60% (95% CI: 4.03, 9.17) more people worrying about being infected, increase 3.77% (95% CI: 2.46, 5.09) more people to avoid social gatherings, and reduce the weekly mean reproduction number by 0.32 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.44). Accordingly, the fourth wave would have been 14% (95% CI%: -53%, 81%) smaller if not for pandemic fatigue. This indicates the important role of mitigating pandemic fatigue in maintaining population protective behaviors for controlling COVID-19.

Insights into COVID-19 epidemiology and control from temporal changes in serial interval distributions in Hong Kong.

The serial interval distribution is used to approximate the generation time distribution, an essential parameter to infer the transmissibility (${R}_t$) of an epidemic. However, serial interval distributions may change as an epidemic progresses. We examined detailed contact tracing data on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong during the five waves from January 2020 to July 2022. We reconstructed the transmission pairs and estimated time-varying effective serial interval distributions and factors associated with longer or shorter intervals. Finally, we assessed the biases in estimating transmissibility using constant serial interval distributions. We found clear temporal changes in mean serial interval estimates within each epidemic wave studied and across waves, with mean serial intervals ranged from 5.5 days (95% CrI: 4.4, 6.6) to 2.7 (95% CrI: 2.2, 3.2) days. The mean serial intervals shortened or lengthened over time, which were found to be closely associated with the temporal variation in COVID-19 case profiles and public health and social measures and could lead to the biases in predicting ${R}_t$. Accounting for the impact of these factors, the time-varying quantification of serial interval distributions could lead to improved estimation of ${R}_t$, and provide additional insights into the impact of public health measures on transmission.

Reversible Hydrophobic Deep Eutectic Solvent-Based Uranyl-Sensing Optode Film in Aqueous Streams: Color Transformation and Reusability.

A hydrophobic deep eutectic solvent (HDES)-based optode was designed for the preconcentration and determination of the UO22+ ion in aqueous media using spectroscopic techniques [energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) and solid-state absorption]. The optode was developed by incorporation of HDES (tri-n-octyl phosphine oxide and decanoic acid in an equimolar ratio), tri-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate, and 2-(5-bromo-2-pyridylazo)-5-diethylaminophenol into a cellulose triacetate matrix. Characterization studies were carried out using different techniques to understand the roles of HDES as a plasticizer, UO22+ extractant, and Br-PADAP immobilizer. Uptake studies revealed that the optimal pH was 3 and sorption followed the type II adsorption isotherm. Uranium in the U-sorbed optode can be directly analyzed over a large concentration range of 0.021 × 10-3-2.1 × 10-3 Mol L-1 using EDXRF. The optode film exhibited a linear dynamic range of 0.84 × 10-6-84 × 10-6 Mol L-1 for uranium, with a lowest limit of detection of 0.084 × 10-6 Mol L-1 by colorimetric analysis. This optode-based method was employed for seawater analysis for its UO22+ concentration without any matrix separation, and the concentration was found to be 1.30 ± 0.06 × 10-8 Mol L-1. The optode exhibited better selectivity for UO22+ in the presence of various cations including Sr2+ and Cs+ in an aqueous medium. Compared to other prevailing optical sensors, this optode performed better in terms of key factors like pH, equilibration time, reusability, and detection limit.

Elucidation of the Decomplexation and Reverse Migration Mechanism of Uranyl Ions from the Oil Phase to the Aqueous Phase Using Microsecond (0.2 µs) Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

Interphase ion transfer is ubiquitous in chemistry, physics, biology, and various engineering sciences. Ion transfer from the aqueous phase to the oil phase or vice versa is a complex chemical phenomenon, and its fundamental understanding is crucial for efficient and economical mass transfer. This ion transfer is much more complex for radionuclide metal ions. Therefore, an attempt has been made to elucidate the decomplexation and mechanism of reverse migration of uranyl ions from the loaded oil phase to the aqueous phase using large time-scale molecular dynamics simulations (microseconds) and density functional theory (DFT). The strength of the metal-ligand complex is the key factor for stripping among other mass transfer parameters. Stronger the metal-ligand complex, the lower the tendency for reverse migration into the aqueous phase, which was demonstrated by three different ligands for reverse migration using water as the stripping agent. The interaction energy of the metal-ligand complex has been calculated using DFT. The reverse migration is validated by the distance between the centers of mass. Higher interface thickness and lower interfacial tension belong to N,N,N',N'-tetra-octyldiglycolamide (TODGA), which are favorable for mass transfer across the liquid-liquid interface. The computed distribution coefficient (KD) is favorable for tributyl phosphate (TBP) and tri-iso-amyl phosphate (TiAP), whereas TODGA shows a higher KD, indicating a less favorable value for reverse migration. The distance between the uranyl ion and the TODGA molecule confirms that the entrapment of uranyl ions in the TODGA phase might be attributed to aggregation. Further, the aggregation tendency of TODGA molecules reduces the back extraction and the recovery of uranyl ions into the aqueous phase. The present MD results might be important for predicting an efficient back-extracting agent for the recovery of the metal ions from the oil phase.

Curcumin as a natural potential drug candidate against important zoonotic viruses and prions: A narrative review.

Zoonotic diseases are major public health concerns and undeniable threats to human health. Among Zoonotic diseases, zoonotic viruses and prions are much more difficult to eradicate, as they result in higher infections and mortality rates. Several investigations have shown curcumin, the active ingredient of turmeric, to have wide spectrum properties such as anti-microbial, anti-vascular, anti-inflammatory, anti-tumor, anti-neoplastic, anti-oxidant, and immune system modulator properties. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive review of existing in silico, in vitro, and in vivo evidence on the antiviral (54 important zoonotic viruses) and anti-prion properties of curcumin and curcuminoids in PubMed, Google Scholar, Science Direct, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. Database searches yielded 13,380 results, out of which 216 studies were eligible according to inclusion criteria. Of 216 studies, 135 (62.5%), 24 (11.1%), and 19 (8.8%) were conducted on the effect of curcumin and curcuminoids against SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A virus, and dengue virus, respectively. This review suggests curcumin and curcuminoids as promising therapeutic agents against a wide range of viral zoonoses by targeting different proteins and signaling pathways.

Utility of Fat Grafting in Chronic Wounds.

Introduction The history of wounds dates back to the evolution of mankind. Throughout the centuries, management modalities of wounds have undergone drastic changes. With the advent of technology, we have multiple options for wound care, but none of them can be called the gold standard of wound care. Autologous fat grafting (AFG) is one of the most routinely performed procedures in aesthetic surgery. Fat grafting has shown beneficial effects in the healing of wounds. The regenerative potential of autologous fat is contributed by the adipose-derived stem cells present within the stromal vascular fraction, which are capable of differentiating into multiple cell types. This study aims to analyze the usefulness of AFG in cutaneous wound healing. Materials and Methods This prospective, study was conducted in our institute between April 2021 and May 2023. Eighteen patients with nonhealing wounds were included in the study. For assessing wound healing all the patients were first managed with conventional dressing for 2 weeks before surgery. After routine preoperative workup, the procedure was performed under local anesthesia in most cases. Fat was harvested from the lower abdomen and after emulsification, was injected into the edge and floor of the ulcer. The dressing was changed on the third postoperative day and the outcome was assessed. Results Eighteen patients (M:F ratio 8:1), with a mean age of 35.61 ± 12. 64 years (range 10-65 years), were included in this study. The most common etiology was trauma (44%), others being postop infection (17%), veno-lymphatic ulcer (17%), burns (11%), insect bite (5%), and trophic ulcer (5%). Majority of the wounds (95%) healed without the need for any extra intervention. The mean period taken for complete wound healing was 5.05 weeks. Conclusion Complete wound healing was achieved in majority of the patients without any complications. We recommend the usage of AFG for nonhealing wounds, as the procedure is relatively simple and can be performed after basic training. Larger-scale randomized controlled trials should be conducted to prove their efficacy in the management of complicated wounds.

Giant Cell Tumor of the Tendon Sheath of the Hand: Analysis of Factors Impacting Recurrence.

Background Giant cell tumors of the tendon sheath (GCTTS) of the hand are considered the second most common benign tumors of the hand after ganglion cysts. Excision biopsy is considered the standard treatment at present. They are notorious for having a very high rate of recurrence as given in many studies. Many factors are said to be associated with recurrence of the tumors. The goal of this study is to evaluate the long-term results of a series of 48 patients operated on at a single institute and to find out if there is any correlation between the proposed risk factors with recurrence. Methods A retrospective analysis was done in cases of GCTTS operated on between 2015 and 2021. The patients were invited for follow-up for a minimum of 2 years, and the patient files were reviewed. Further data were collected at follow-up including recurrence, range of movement, sensation, skin necrosis, scarring, and digital neuropathy. A data analysis was done. The correlation between the proposed risk factors and recurrence was calculated with the Pearson correlation coefficient. A p -value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results During the 6 years, 48 patients were operated on. Recurrence was observed in eight patients (16%) at an average of 38.7 months from the time of surgery. Of the risk factors, tumors with satellite nodules and tumor adjacency to joint correlated significantly with recurrence. No complications were observed during follow-up. Conclusion GCTTS of the hand has a high propensity to recur. The presence of satellite nodules and proximity to interphalangeal joints are two important risk factors for recurrence. Magnification during surgery ensures complete excision of the tumor and reduces the chance of recurrence.

Enhancement of nutraceutical and anti-diabetic potential of fenugreek (Trigonella foenum-graecum). Sprouts with natural elicitors.

Trigonella foenum-graecum has been extensively used for centuries in traditional medicine systems for the cure of health ailments including diabetes. Improving the medicinal attributes of plants through the elicitation strategy is gaining great interest in the recent past. In the current study, an attempt is made to reveal the role and possible mechanism of action of vitamin C elicit phytochemical-rich aqueous extract of 4th day germinated IM6 genotype fenugreek sprouts in the form of lyophilized powder (IM6E) under both in vitro and in vivo conditions. The IM6E demonstrated strong α-glucosidase activity (95.24 %) and moderate α-amylase and invertase inhibition activities under in vitro conditions. The High Performance Thin Layer Chromatography (HPTLC) based analysis demonstrated that IM6E possess significantly higher concentration of phenolic phytochemical quercetin (0.148 %) as compared to diosgenin and trigonelline bioactive anti-diabetic nutraceuticals. In normal rats after loading with glucose and sucrose, the IM6E administration in a dose-dependent manner significantly reduced the post-prandial hyperglycemia, in a similar fashion as the anti-diabetic drug voglibose as evident from the area under curves (AUC) of oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and oral sucrose tolerance test (OSTT) tests. The administration of IM6E in streptozotocin (STZ) induced diabetic rats drastically improved the antioxidant activity of plasma in them as determined by Ferric Reducing Ability of Plasma (FRAP) and the effect was found to be dose-dependent. The oral administration of IM6E in diabetic rats normalized almost all the deregulated biochemical markers like liver enzymes, lipids and significantly decreased higher blood glucose levels with increasing insulin levels as compared to diabetic control. The best concentration of IM6E was found to be 300 mg/kg b.w after 21 days of experimentation. The intra-peritoneal glucose tolerance test (IPGTT) in diabetic rats responded very well to IM6E treatment and 100 mg/kg.b.w. behaved almost like the administration of 0.5U insulin/kg bw, and thus indicating the insulinotropic nature of IM6E. Our findings clearly reveal the use of IM6E for diabetes management and at the same it possesses great potential when combined with voglibose to ameliorate diabetes and its associated complications to a greater extent due to synergistic effects as compared to monotherapy. However, more clinical trials need to be performed before recommending IM6E as an anti-diabetic alternative medicine.

Resection and reconstruction with and without neoadjuvant denosumab in campanacci grade III giant cell tumors of proximal humerus: a retrospective comparative study.

BACKGROUND: Giant cell tumors (GCT) of the proximal humerus are rarely reported case that requires complex surgeries due to involvement of the shoulder joint. Therefore, we report the first retrospective comparative study where the postoperative functional outcomes, recurrence rate and complications in patients who underwent arthrodesis of shoulder after resection of grade III GCT with and without neoadjuvant denosumab are compared. METHODS: A retrospective review of eight cases of grade III GCT of proximal humerus receiving resection and fibular strut graft and arthrodesis between January 2014 and December 2019 is performed. They were stratified into two groups: one group of four patients received once-weekly denosumab 120 mg for 4-weeks before resection and reconstruction, while the other group of four patients did not receive denosumab before surgery. Primary outcomes included the functional outcomes assessed by revised Musculoskeletal tumor society (MSTS) score and shoulder pain and disability index (SPDI) at 6-weeks and 12-months postoperatively while secondary outcomes included complications and recurrences. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in terms of SPDI at 6 weeks and 12 months, MSTS at 12 months, complications, recurrence among denosumab and non-denosumab groups. At 6-weeks follow-up, a significantly better pain score in SPDI and MSTS was acquired in the denosumab group. CONCLUSIONS: Resection and reconstruction with or without neoadjuvant denosumab for Grade III GCT of proximal humerus had similar functional outcomes and with no major differences in recurrence and complications. Hence, postoperative pain relief while long-term benefits were not discovered with the use of neoadjuvant denosumab.

Serial Intervals and Case Isolation Delays for Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the serial interval distribution contribute to our understanding of the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we aimed to summarize the existing evidence on serial interval distributions and delays in case isolation for COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the published literature and preprints in PubMed on 2 epidemiological parameters, namely, serial intervals and delay intervals relating to isolation of cases for COVID-19 from 1 January 2020 to 22 October 2020 following predefined eligibility criteria. We assessed the variation in these parameter estimates using correlation and regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 103 unique studies on serial intervals of COVID-19, 56 were included, providing 129 estimates. Of 451 unique studies on isolation delays, 18 were included, providing 74 estimates. Serial interval estimates from 56 included studies varied from 1.0 to 9.9 days, while case isolation delays from 18 included studies varied from 1.0 to 12.5 days, which were associated with spatial, methodological, and temporal factors. In mainland China, the pooled mean serial interval was 6.2 days (range, 5.1-7.8) before the epidemic peak and reduced to 4.9 days (range, 1.9-6.5) after the epidemic peak. Similarly, the pooled mean isolation delay related intervals were 6.0 days (range, 2.9-12.5) and 2.4 days (range, 2.0-2.7) before and after the epidemic peak, respectively. There was a positive association between serial interval and case isolation delay. CONCLUSIONS: Temporal factors, such as different control measures and case isolation in particular, led to shorter serial interval estimates over time. Correcting transmissibility estimates for these time-varying distributions could aid mitigation efforts.

Serial Interval and Transmission Dynamics during SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Predominance, South Korea.

We estimated mean serial interval and superspreading potential for the Delta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in South Korea. Intervals were similar for the first (3.7 days) and second (3.5 days) study periods. Risk for superspreading events was also similar; 23% and 25% of cases, respectively, seeded 80% of transmissions.

Evaluation of Effectiveness of Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign.

To model estimated deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccines, we used state-of-the-art mathematical modeling, likelihood-based inference, and reported COVID-19 death and vaccination data. We estimated that >1.5 million deaths were averted in 12 countries. Our model can help assess effectiveness of the vaccination program, which is crucial for curbing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Epidemiology of Infections with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 Variant, Hong Kong, January-March 2022.

Our analysis of data collected from multiple epidemics in Hong Kong indicated a shorter serial interval and generation time of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. The age-specific case-fatality risk for Omicron BA.2.2 case-patients without complete primary vaccination was comparable to that of persons infected with ancestral strains in earlier waves.

STAT3-EMT axis in tumors: Modulation of cancer metastasis, stemness and therapy response.

Epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) mechanism is responsible for metastasis of tumor cells and their spread to various organs and tissues of body, providing undesirable prognosis. In addition to migration, EMT increases stemness and mediates therapy resistance. Hence, pathways involved in EMT regulation should be highlighted. STAT3 is an oncogenic pathway that can elevate growth rate and migratory ability of cancer cells and induce drug resistance. The inhibition of STAT3 signaling impairs cancer progression and promotes chemotherapy-mediated cell death. Present review focuses on STAT3 and EMT interaction in modulating cancer migration. First of all, STAT3 is an upstream mediator of EMT and is able to induce EMT-mediated metastasis in brain tumors, thoracic cancers and gastrointestinal cancers. Therefore, STAT3 inhibition significantly suppresses cancer metastasis and improves prognosis of patients. EMT regulators such as ZEB1/2 proteins, TGF-ß, Twist, Snail and Slug are affected by STAT3 signaling to stimulate cancer migration and invasion. Different molecular pathways such as miRNAs, lncRNAs and circRNAs modulate STAT3/EMT axis. Furthermore, we discuss how STAT3 and EMT interaction affects therapy response of cancer cells. Finally, we demonstrate targeting STAT3/EMT axis by anti-tumor agents and clinical application of this axis for improving patient prognosis.

Antimicrobial resistance, virulence factors, and genotypes of Pseudomonas aeruginosa clinical isolates from Gorgan, northern Iran.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an important nosocomial pathogen with a capacity of resistance to multiple antibiotics and production of various extracellular and cell-associated virulence factors that clearly contribute to its pathogenicity. The objective of this study was to investigate the antibiotic susceptibility, virulence factors, and clonal relationship among clinical isolates of P. aeruginosa. Different clinical specimens from hospitalized patients were investigated for P. aeruginosa. Susceptibility of the isolates was evaluated by disc diffusion and broth microdilution methods, as described by the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guideline. A total of 97 P. aeruginosa isolates were recovered from clinical specimens. The percentage of isolates resistant to antimicrobials was imipenem 25.77%, meropenem 15.46%, gentamicin 16.49%, tobramycin 15.46%, amikacin 16.49%, ciprofloxacin 20.61%, levofloxacin 24.74, ceftazidime 20.61%, piperacillin 15.46%, piperacillin/tazobactam 12.37%, colistin 9.27%, and polymyxin B 11.34%. Of isolates, 87.62% possessed ß-hemolytic activity, 78.35% lecithinase, 59.8% elastase, 37.11% DNase, and 28.86% twitching motility. The frequency of virulence genes in isolates was lasB 82.47%, plcH 82.47%, exoA 58.76%, exoS 56.7%, and pilA 10.3%. ERIC-PCR typing clustered P. aeruginosa isolates to 19 common types (CT1-CT19) containing isolates from different hospitals and 43 single types (ST1-ST43). Colistin and polymyxin B were the most effective agents against the majority of P. aeruginosa isolates, emphasizing the effort to maintain their antibacterial activity as last-line therapy. The frequency of some virulence factors and genes was noticeably high, which is alarming. In addition, more effective strategies and surveillance are necessary to confine and prevent the inter-hospital and/or intra-hospital dissemination of P. aeruginosa between therapeutic centers.

The mir-21 Inhibition Enhanced HUVEC Cellular Viability during Hypoxia-Reoxygenation Injury by Regulating PDCD4.

The purpose of this study was to explore the clinical value of altered plasma mir-21 expression level as a biomarker for the severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) and its molecular impact on HUVEC cellular injuries. Angiographically validated 56 patients with single-vessel CAD disease, 92 patients with double-vessel CAD, 139 complex coronary artery stenosis patients, and 56 healthy individuals (n = 343) were enrolled in this study. The expressions of plasma mir-21 were evidently and progressively higher while PDCD4 levels were significantly and steadily lower in single-, dual-, and multivessel occluded CAD patients than in healthy participants (P < 0.001). The relative expressions of mir-21 in hypoxia-reoxygenation- (HR-) exposed HUVECs were markedly upregulated, but PDCD4 concentrations were obviously downregulated as compared with normal control cells (P < 0.001). Moreover, altered circulatory mir-21 expression levels were able to significantly differentiate single- (AUC 0.893), double- (AUC 0.914), and multivessel stenosis CAD (AUC 0.933) patients from healthy subjects. Besides, the plasma mir-21 expressions in elderly (66-85 years) groups were remarkably higher than those in younger aged (25-45 years) subjects. Caspase-3 and ROS expression levels were remarkably elevated, but cellular viability noticeably declined in HR-induced HUVECs than in normoxic cells (P < 0.001). In contrast, mir-21 inhibition markedly reduced caspase-3 activity and ROS concentrations while significantly ameliorating HUVEC cellular viability in HR conditions. PDCD4 expressions in HR-exposed HUVECs were prominently decreased whereas mir-21 inhibition significantly enhanced PDCD4 levels (P < 0.001). Upregulated plasma mir-21 can be a valuable clinical biomarker for the detection of the severity of coronary artery stenosis patients. Elevated circulatory mir-21 concentrations have a positive correlation with aging. Inhibitory mir-21 evidently increased HUVEC cellular viability through upregulation of targeting PDCD4 and recommended a newer possible therapeutic molecule for the management of CAD patients.

Transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infections in Guangdong, China, May to June 2021.

BackgroundThe Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 had become predominant globally by November 2021.AimWe evaluated transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of the Delta variant in an outbreak in southern China.MethodsData on confirmed COVID-19 cases and their close contacts were retrospectively collected from the outbreak that occurred in Guangdong, China in May and June 2021. Key epidemiological parameters, temporal trend of viral loads and secondary attack rates were estimated. We also evaluated the association of vaccination with viral load and transmission.ResultsWe identified 167 patients infected with the Delta variant in the Guangdong outbreak. Mean estimates of latent and incubation period were 3.9 days and 5.8 days, respectively. Relatively higher viral load was observed in infections with Delta than in infections with wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Secondary attack rate among close contacts of cases with Delta was 1.4%, and 73.1% (95% credible interval (CrI): 32.9-91.4) of the transmissions occurred before onset. Index cases without vaccination (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.84; 95% CI: 1.19-8.45) or with an incomplete vaccination series (aOR: 6.02; 95% CI: 2.45-18.16) were more likely to transmit infection to their contacts than those who had received the complete primary vaccination series.DiscussionPatients infected with the Delta variant had more rapid symptom onset compared with the wild type. The time-varying serial interval should be accounted for in estimation of reproduction numbers. The higher viral load and higher risk of pre-symptomatic transmission indicated the challenges in control of infections with the Delta variant.

Decreased Use of Broad-Spectrum Antibiotics During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there was a concern over possible increase in antibiotic use due to coinfections among COVID-19 patients in the community. Here, we evaluate the changes in nationwide use of broad-spectrum antibiotics during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea. METHODS: We obtained national reimbursement data on the prescription of antibiotics, including penicillin with ß-lactamase inhibitors, cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, and macrolides. We examined the number of antibiotic prescriptions compared with the previous 3 years in the same period from August to July. To quantify the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on antibiotic use, we developed a regression model adjusting for changes of viral acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs), which are an important factor driving antibiotic use. RESULTS: During the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, the broad-spectrum antibiotic use dropped by 15%-55% compared to the previous 3 years. Overall reduction in antibiotic use adjusting for ARTIs was estimated to be 14%-30%, with a larger impact in children. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that broad-spectrum antibiotic use was substantially reduced during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea. This reduction can be in part due to reduced ARTIs as a result of stringent public health interventions including social distancing measures.

Joint Estimation of Generation Time and Incubation Period for Coronavirus Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a heavy disease burden globally. The impact of process and timing of data collection on the accuracy of estimation of key epidemiological distributions are unclear. Because infection times are typically unobserved, there are relatively few estimates of generation time distribution. METHODS: We developed a statistical framework to jointly estimate generation time and incubation period from human-to-human transmission pairs, accounting for sampling biases. We applied the framework on 80 laboratory-confirmed human-to-human transmission pairs in China. We further inferred the infectiousness profile, serial interval distribution, proportions of presymptomatic transmission, and basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19. RESULTS: The estimated mean incubation period was 4.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-5.6), and mean generation time was 5.7 days (95% CI, 4.8-6.5). The estimated R0 based on the estimated generation time was 2.2 (95% CI, 1.9-2.4). A simulation study suggested that our approach could provide unbiased estimates, insensitive to the width of exposure windows. CONCLUSIONS: Properly accounting for the timing and process of data collection is critical to have correct estimates of generation time and incubation period. R0 can be biased when it is derived based on serial interval as the proxy of generation time.