Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden.

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

The Iranian blood pressure measurement campaign, 2019: study protocol and preliminary results.

Purpose: Hypertension is one of the most important risk factors for premature mortality and morbidity in Iran. The objective of the Iranian blood pressure (BP) measurement campaign was to identify individuals with raised blood pressure and providing appropriate care and increase the awareness among the public and policymakers of the importance of tackling hypertension. Methods: The campaign was conducted in two phases. The first (communication) phase started on May 17th (International Hypertension Day). The second phase started on June 8th, 2019, and lasted up to July 7th during which, blood pressures were measured. The target population was Iranians aged ≥ 30 years. Participants voluntarily referred to health houses in rural and health posts and comprehensive health centers in urban areas in the setting of the Primary Health Care network. Additionally, over 13,700 temporary stations were set up in highly visited places in urban areas. Volunteer healthcare staff interviewed the participants, measured their BP, and provided them with lifestyle advice and knowledge of the risks and consequences of high blood pressure. They referred participants to physicians in case their BP was high. Participants immediately received a text message containing the relevant advice based on their measured BP and their past history. Results: Blood pressure was measured for a total of 26,678,394 participants in the campaign. A total of 13,722,148 participants (51.4%) were female. The mean age was 46 ± 14.1 years. Among total participants, 15,012,693 adults (56.3%) with no past history of hypertension had normal BP, 7,959,288 participants had BP in the prehypertension range (29.8%), and finally, 3,706,413 participants (13.9%) had either past medical history of hypertension, used medications, or had high BP measured in the campaign. Conclusion: The campaign was feasible with the objective to increase the awareness among the public and policymakers of the importance of tackling hypertension in Iran.