Impacts of water stress on lagoonal ecosystem degradation in semi-arid coastal areas.

The intensifying impacts of aridity and water stress on the dynamics and ecological degradation of wetlands in North Africa are often underestimated and largely remain unquantified. To address this deficiency, we assessed decadal changes in the sedimentary, sea surface salinity (SSS), and microfaunistic patterns of the Bizerte Lagoon, a climatically vulnerable area in the southern Mediterranean basin. Findings from sediment transport analysis indicate preferential current dispersion along the lagoon ridge associated with mixtures of sedimentary distributions. The changes in SSS between 2004 and 2016 reveal an increase of approximately 40% in areas where the river flows into the lagoon. Findings from the microfaunistic analysis suggest that over the last few decades, a progressive enrichment of alien marine species has occurred in the lagoon owing to changes in SSS and sedimentation. Results also revealed the unexpected presence of tropical to subtropical Larger B-bearing Foraminifera (LBF) species, which are exogenic to the warm southern Mediterranean coasts. The study findings highlight the impacts of damming and changes in precipitation patterns on the degradation of biodiversity in the Bizerte Lagoon and in other lagoonal systems in North Africa with similar levels of aridity.

Alarming coastal vulnerability of the deltaic and sandy beaches of North Africa.

The arid coasts of North Africa, extending over 4633 km from the Gulf of Tunis to the Nile Delta, are undergoing pronounced shoreline retreats and coastal floodings that are reported as a consequence of the ongoing sea level rise resulting from global warming. Of particular interest are the abnormal shoreline dynamics for deltaic and sandy beaches, which are severely impacted by abrupt decadal variabilities in both climatic and anthropogenic drivers resulting in their increased vulnerability to disturbances from coastal hazards. Unfortunately, the evolution, distribution and impacts of these drivers remain largely unquantified, let alone understood, for these extensive arid coasts that harbor the major portion of North Africa's population as well as unique and fragile marine ecosystems. To address this deficiency, we use GIS-based multi-criteria approaches combined with analytic hierarchy process to map the Coastal Vulnerability Index and the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index along these coasts to investigate the amplitude and extent of shoreline deterioration resulting from sudden fluctuations in sediment transport to the coastline. We use the western bay of the Gulf of Tunis, the coasts of Tripoli and the Nile Delta as three validation sites for our vulnerability assessment. The statistical Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index map reveals that 47% of arid North African coasts are characterized by high to very high vulnerability. In particular, we observe that the densely populated deltaic coasts in both Tunisia and Egypt are 70% more vulnerable than any others coast in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. These abnormally high-vulnerability extensive areas are also correlated with significant deterioration of coastal aquifers and hence in crop production, compromising local food security and resulting in increasing outflow migration trends. Both Tunisia and Egypt observed dramatic increases in the net population outflow migration by respectively 62% and 248% between 2000 and 2016, mostly from coastal areas. Our source analysis of the amplitude and extent of these high coastal vulnerabilities suggests that they result from the anthropogenic drivers of damming and rapid urban growth over the last few decades rather than the effects of global warming.