Ten-year projection of white-nose syndrome disease dynamics at the southern leading-edge of infection in North America.

Predicting the emergence and spread of infectious diseases is critical for the effective conservation of biodiversity. White-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging infectious disease of bats, has resulted in high mortality in eastern North America. Because the fungal causative agent Pseudogymnoascus destructans is constrained by temperature and humidity, spread dynamics may vary by geography. Environmental conditions in the southern part of the continent are different than the northeast, where disease dynamics are typically studied, making it difficult to predict how the disease will manifest. Herein, we modelled WNS pathogen spread in Texas based on cave densities and average dispersal distances of hosts, projecting these results out to 10 years. We parameterized a predictive model of WNS epidemiology and its effects on bat populations with observed cave environmental data. Our model suggests that bat populations in northern Texas will be more affected by WNS mortality than southern Texas. As such, we recommend prioritizing the preservation of large overwintering colonies of bats in north Texas through management actions. Our model illustrates that infectious disease spread and infectious disease severity can become uncoupled over a gradient of environmental variation and highlight the importance of understanding host, pathogen and environmental conditions across a breadth of environments.

Model of bacterial toxin-dependent pathogenesis explains infective dose.

The initial amount of pathogens required to start an infection within a susceptible host is called the infective dose and is known to vary to a large extent between different pathogen species. We investigate the hypothesis that the differences in infective doses are explained by the mode of action in the underlying mechanism of pathogenesis: Pathogens with locally acting mechanisms tend to have smaller infective doses than pathogens with distantly acting mechanisms. While empirical evidence tends to support the hypothesis, a formal theoretical explanation has been lacking. We give simple analytical models to gain insight into this phenomenon and also investigate a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic within-host model for toxin-dependent bacterial infections. The model shows that pathogens secreting locally acting toxins have smaller infective doses than pathogens secreting diffusive toxins, as hypothesized. While local pathogenetic mechanisms require smaller infective doses, pathogens with distantly acting toxins tend to spread faster and may cause more damage to the host. The proposed model can serve as a basis for the spatially explicit analysis of various virulence factors also in the context of other problems in infection dynamics.

Contrasting the impact of cytotoxic and cytostatic drug therapies on tumour progression.

A tumour grows when the total division (birth) rate of its cells exceeds their total mortality (death) rate. The capability for uncontrolled growth within the host tissue is acquired via the accumulation of driver mutations which enable the tumour to progress through various hallmarks of cancer. We present a mathematical model of the penultimate stage in such a progression. We assume the tumour has reached the limit of its present growth potential due to cell competition that either results in total birth rate reduction or death rate increase. The tumour can then progress to the final stage by either seeding a metastasis or acquiring a driver mutation. We influence the ensuing evolutionary dynamics by cytotoxic (increasing death rate) or cytostatic (decreasing birth rate) therapy while keeping the effect of the therapy on net growth reduction constant. Comparing the treatments head to head we derive conditions for choosing optimal therapy. We quantify how the choice and the related gain of optimal therapy depends on driver mutation, metastasis, intrinsic cell birth and death rates, and the details of cell competition. We show that detailed understanding of the cell population dynamics could be exploited in choosing the right mode of treatment with substantial therapy gains.

Plant-mediated CH4 exchange in wetlands: A review of mechanisms and measurement methods with implications for modelling.

Plant-mediated CH4 transport (PMT) is the dominant pathway through which soil-produced CH4 can escape into the atmosphere and thus plays an important role in controlling ecosystem CH4 emission. PMT is affected by abiotic and biotic factors simultaneously, and the effects of biotic factors, such as the dominant plant species and their traits, can override the effects of abiotic factors. Increasing evidence shows that plant-mediated CH4 fluxes include not only PMT, but also within-plant CH4 production and oxidation due to the detection of methanogens and methanotrophs attached to the shoots. Despite the inter-species and seasonal differences, and the probable contribution of within-plant microbes to total plant-mediated CH4 exchange (PME), current process-based ecosystem models only estimate PMT based on the bulk biomass or leaf area index of aerenchymatous plants. We highlight five knowledge gaps to which more research efforts should be devoted. First, large between-species variation, even within the same family, complicates general estimation of PMT, and calls for further work on the key dominant species in different types of wetlands. Second, the interface (rhizosphere-root, root-shoot, or leaf-atmosphere) and plant traits controlling PMT remain poorly documented, but would be required for generalizations from species to relevant functional groups. Third, the main environmental controls of PMT across species remain uncertain. Fourth, the role of within-plant CH4 production and oxidation is poorly quantified. Fifth, the simplistic description of PMT in current process models results in uncertainty and potentially high errors in predictions of the ecosystem CH4 flux. Our review suggest that flux measurements should be conducted over multiple growing seasons and be paired with trait assessment and microbial analysis, and that trait-based models should be developed. Only then we are capable to accurately estimate plant-mediated CH4 emissions, and eventually ecosystem total CH4 emissions at both regional and global scales.

Soil GHG dynamics after water level rise - Impacts of selection harvesting in peatland forests.

Managed boreal peatlands are widespread and economically important, but they are a large source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Peatland GHG emissions are related to soil water-table level (WT), which controls the vertical distribution of aerobic and anaerobic processes and, consequently, sinks and sources of GHGs in soils. On forested peatlands, selection harvesting reduces stand evapotranspiration and it has been suggested that the resulting WT rise decreases soil net emissions, while the tree growth is maintained. We monitored soil concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and O2 by depth down to 80 cm, and CO2 and CH4 fluxes from soil in two nutrient-rich Norway spruce dominated peatlands in Southern Finland to examine the responses of soil GHG dynamics to WT rise. Selection harvesting raised WT by 14 cm on both sites, on average, mean WTs of the monitoring period being 73 cm for unharvested control and 59 cm for selection harvest. All soil gas concentrations were associated with proximity to WT. Both CH4 and CO2 showed remarkable vertical concentration gradients, with high values in the deepest layer, likely due to slow gas transfer in wet peat. CH4 was efficiently consumed in peat layers near and above WT where it reached sub-atmospheric concentrations, indicating sustained oxidation of CH4 from both atmospheric and deeper soil origins also after harvesting. Based on soil gas concentration data, surface peat (top 25/30 cm layer) contributed most to the soil-atmosphere CO2 fluxes and harvesting slightly increased the CO2 source in deeper soil (below 45/50 cm), which could explain the small CO2 flux differences between treatments. N2O production occurred above WT, and it was unaffected by harvesting. Overall, the WT rise obtained with selection harvesting was not sufficient to reduce soil GHG emissions, but additional hydrological regulation would have been needed.

Is coproporphyrin III a copper-acquisition compound in Paracoccus denitrificans?

Paracoccus denitrificans is a soil bacterium which can respire aerobically and also denitrify if oxygen is absent. Both processes are highly dependent on copper enzymes and copper is therefore likely to be an essential trace element for the bacterium. If copper is not easily available, a copper-acquisition mechanism would be highly beneficial. In this paper, we have addressed the question of whether Paracoccus secretes a copper-acquisition compound functionally analogous to that found in some methanotrophs. Bacteria were grown both in copper-containing and copper-deficient denitrification media, cells were removed by centrifugation and the supernatant was analysed using chromatography and spectroscopy. Bacterial growth yield in the absence of copper was 70-80% of that in the copper-containing medium. A notable difference between the two culture conditions was that spent copper-deficient medium was pigmented, whereas the copper-containing medium was not. Spectrophotometry indicated that a red compound with an absorption maximum at 405 nm was produced under copper-limited conditions. In addition to the strong 405 nm maximum, the visible spectrum of the purified red molecule had weaker maxima at 535 nm and 570 nm, features typical of metallated tetrapyrroles. Mass spectrometry showed that the purified pigment had a molecular mass of 716.18. Moreover, the fine structure of the mass spectrum suggested the presence of zinc and was consistent with the chemical formula of C(36)H(36)N(4)O(8)Zn. The presence of zinc was also demonstrated using inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy. Fragmentation analysis with mass spectrometry showed the release of consecutive 59 Da fragments, assignable to four -CH(2)-COOH moieties. Thin layer chromatography as well as NMR analysis of the C-13/N-15 labelled red pigment suggested that it is predominantly zinc coproporphyrin III with a minor fraction of metal-free coproporphyrin III. We propose that in a copper-poor environment P. denitrificans secretes coproporphyrin III for copper chelation and subsequent uptake of the bound copper into the cell. Consistent with this idea, cell yields of copper-deficient cultures grown in the presence of 1 microM copper-coproporphyrin III were 90-95% of the yields of cultures grown in the normal copper-containing media. Coproporphyrin III may work as a copper-acquisition compound in P. denitrificans.

Environmental Variation Generates Environmental Opportunist Pathogen Outbreaks.

Many socio-economically important pathogens persist and grow in the outside host environment and opportunistically invade host individuals. The environmental growth and opportunistic nature of these pathogens has received only little attention in epidemiology. Environmental reservoirs are, however, an important source of novel diseases. Thus, attempts to control these diseases require different approaches than in traditional epidemiology focusing on obligatory parasites. Conditions in the outside-host environment are prone to fluctuate over time. This variation is a potentially important driver of epidemiological dynamics and affect the evolution of novel diseases. Using a modelling approach combining the traditional SIRS models to environmental opportunist pathogens and environmental variability, we show that epidemiological dynamics of opportunist diseases are profoundly driven by the quality of environmental variability, such as the long-term predictability and magnitude of fluctuations. When comparing periodic and stochastic environmental factors, for a given variance, stochastic variation is more likely to cause outbreaks than periodic variation. This is due to the extreme values being further away from the mean. Moreover, the effects of variability depend on the underlying biology of the epidemiological system, and which part of the system is being affected. Variation in host susceptibility leads to more severe pathogen outbreaks than variation in pathogen growth rate in the environment. Positive correlation in variation on both targets can cancel the effect of variation altogether. Moreover, the severity of outbreaks is significantly reduced by increase in the duration of immunity. Uncovering these issues helps in understanding and controlling diseases caused by environmental pathogens.

Loss of competition in the outside host environment generates outbreaks of environmental opportunist pathogens.

Environmentally transmitted pathogens face ecological interactions (e.g., competition, predation, parasitism) in the outside-host environment and host immune system during infection. Despite the ubiquitousness of environmental opportunist pathogens, traditional epidemiology focuses on obligatory pathogens incapable of environmental growth. Here we ask how competitive interactions in the outside-host environment affect the dynamics of an opportunist pathogen. We present a model coupling the classical SI and Lotka-Volterra competition models. In this model we compare a linear infectivity response and a sigmoidal infectivity response. An important assumption is that pathogen virulence is traded off with competitive ability in the environment. Removing this trade-off easily results in host extinction. The sigmoidal response is associated with catastrophic appearances of disease outbreaks when outside-host species richness, or overall competition pressure, decreases. This indicates that alleviating outside-host competition with antibacterial substances that also target the competitors can have unexpected outcomes by providing benefits for opportunist pathogens. These findings may help in developing alternative ways of controlling environmental opportunist pathogens.