Tree hole mosquito species composition and relative abundances differ between urban and adjacent forest habitats in northwestern Argentina.

Water-holding tree holes are main larval habitats for many pathogen vectors, especially mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae). Along 3 years, the diversity and composition of mosquito species in tree holes of two neighbouring but completely different environments, a city and its adjacent forest, were compared using generalized linear mixed models, PERMANOVA, SIMPER and species association indexes. The city area (Northwest Argentina) is highly relevant epidemiologically due to the presence of Aedes aegypti L. (main dengue vector) and occurrence of dengue outbreaks; the Yungas rainforests are highly biologically diverse. In total seven mosquito species were recorded, in descending order of abundance: Ae. aegypti, Haemagogus spegazzinii Brèthes, Sabethes purpureus (Theobald), Toxorhynchites guadeloupensis Dyar and Knab, Aedes terrens Walker, Haemagogus leucocelaenus Dyar & Shannon and Sabethes petrocchiae (Shannon and Del Ponte). The seven mosquito species were recorded in both city sites and forested areas; however, their mosquito communities significantly diverged because of marked differences in the frequency and relative abundance of some species: Tx. guadeloupensis and Ae. aegypti were significantly more abundant in forest and urban areas, respectively. Positive significant associations were detected between Ae. aegypti, Hg. spegazzinii and Hg. leucocelaenus. The combined presence of Ae. aegypti, Haemagogus and Sabethes in the area also highlight a potential risk of yellow fever epidemics. Overall results show an impoverished tree hole mosquito fauna in urban environments, reflecting negative effects of urbanization on mosquito diversity.

Tree holes as larval habitats for Aedes aegypti in urban, suburban and forest habitats in a dengue affected area.

Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae), the main vector of dengue and urban yellow fever in the world, is highly adapted to the human environment. Artificial containers are the most common larval habitat for the species, but it may develop in tree holes and other phytotelmata. This study assessed whether tree holes in San Ramón de la Nueva Orán, a city located in subtropical montane moist forest where dengue outbreaks occur, are relevant as larval habitat for Ae. aegypti and if the species may be found in natural areas far from human habitations. Water holding tree holes were sampled during 3 years once a month along the rainy season using a siphon bottle, in urban and suburban sites within the city and in adjacent forested areas. Larvae and pupae were collected and the presence and volume of water in each tree hole were recorded. Finding Ae. aegypti in forested areas was an isolated event; however, the species was frequently collected from tree holes throughout the city and along the sampling period. Moreover, larvae were collected in considerably high numbers, stressing the importance of taking into account these natural cavities as potential reinfestation foci within dengue control framework.

Sustained oscillations in stochastic systems.

Many non-linear deterministic models for interacting populations present damped oscillations towards the corresponding equilibrium values. However, simulations produced with related stochastic models usually present sustained oscillations which preserve the natural frequency of the damped oscillations of the deterministic model but showing non-vanishing amplitudes. The relation between the amplitude of the stochastic oscillations and the values of the equilibrium populations is not intuitive in general but scales with the square root of the populations when the ratio between different populations is kept fixed. In this work, we explain such phenomena for the case of a general epidemic model. We estimate the stochastic fluctuations of the populations around the equilibrium point in the epidemiological model showing their (approximated) relation with the mean values.

Critical response time (time available to implement effective measures for epidemic control): model building and evaluation.

The time available to implement successful control measures against epidemics was estimated. Critical response time (CRT), defined as the time interval within which the number of epidemic cases remains stationary (so that interventions implemented within CRT may be the most effective or least costly), was assessed during the early epidemic phase, when the number of cases grows linearly over time. The CRT was calculated from data of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic that occurred in Uruguay. Significant regional CRT differences (ranging from 1.4 to 2.7 days) were observed. The CRT may facilitate selection of control measures. For instance, a CRT equal to 3 days would support the selection of measures, such as stamping-out, implementable within 3 days, but rule out measures, such as post-outbreak vaccination, because intervention and immunity building require more than 3 days. Its use in rapidly disseminating diseases, such as FMD, may result in regionalized decision-making.

Population dynamics: Poisson approximation and its relation to the Langevin process.

We discuss how to simulate a stochastic evolution process in terms of difference equations with Poisson distributions of independent events when the problem is naturally described by discrete variables. For large populations the Poisson approximation becomes a discrete integration of the Langevin approximation [T. G. Kurtz, J. Appl. Prob. 7, 49 (1970); 8, 344 (1971)]. We analyze when the latter gives a reasonable representation of the original evolution for finite size systems. A simple example of an epidemic process is used to organize the discussion and to perform statistical tests that underline the goodness of the proposed method.

Transmission and dynamics of tuberculosis on generalized households.

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission is enhanced by systematic exposure to an infectious individual. This enhancement usually takes place at either the home, workplace, and/or school (generalized household). Typical epidemiological models do not incorporate the impact of generalized households on the study of disease dynamics. Models that incorporate cluster (generalized household) effects and focus on their impact on TB's transmission dynamics are developed. Detailed models that consider the effect of casual infections, that is, those generated outside a cluster, are also presented. We find expressions for the Basic Reproductive Number as a function of cluster size. The formula for R0 separates the contributions of cluster and casual infections in the generation of secondary TB infections. Relationships between cluster and classical epidemic models are discussed as well as the concept of critical cluster size.