Explainable artificial intelligence in forensics: Realistic explanations for number of contributor predictions of DNA profiles.

Machine learning obtains good accuracy in determining the number of contributors (NOC) in short tandem repeat (STR) mixture DNA profiles. However, the models used so far are not understandable to users as they only output a prediction without any reasoning for that conclusion. Therefore, we leverage techniques from the field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to help users understand why specific predictions are made. Where previous attempts at explainability for NOC estimation have relied upon using simpler, more understandable models that achieve lower accuracy, we use techniques that can be applied to any machine learning model. Our explanations incorporate SHAP values and counterfactual examples for each prediction into a single visualization. Existing methods for generating counterfactuals focus on uncorrelated features. This makes them inappropriate for the highly correlated features derived from STR data for NOC estimation, as these techniques simulate combinations of features that could not have resulted from an STR profile. For this reason, we have constructed a new counterfactual method, Realistic Counterfactuals (ReCo), which generates realistic counterfactual explanations for correlated data. We show that ReCo outperforms state-of-the-art methods on traditional metrics, as well as on a novel realism score. A user evaluation of the visualization shows positive opinions of end-users, which is ultimately the most appropriate metric in assessing explanations for real-world settings.

Objectifying evidence evaluation for gunshot residue comparisons using machine learning on criminal case data.

Comparative gunshot residue analysis addresses relevant forensic questions such as 'did suspect X fire shot Y?'. More formally, it weighs the evidence for hypotheses of the form H1: gunshot residue particles found on suspect's hands are from the same source as the gunshot residue particles found on the crime scene and H2: two sets of particles are from different sources. Currently, experts perform this analysis by evaluating the elemental composition of the particles using their knowledge and experience. The aim of this study is to construct a likelihood-ratio (LR) system based on representative data. Such an LR system can support the expert by making the interpretation of the results of electron microscopy analysis more empirically grounded. In this study we chose statistical models from the machine learning literature as candidates to construct this system, as these models have been shown to work well for large and high-dimensional datasets. Using a subsequent calibration step ensured that the system outputs well-calibrated LRs. The system is developed and validated on casework data and an additional validation step is performed on an independent dataset of cartridge data. The results show that the system performs well on both datasets. We discuss future work needed before the method can be implemented in casework.

Next-generation biological control: the need for integrating genetics and genomics.

Biological control is widely successful at controlling pests, but effective biocontrol agents are now more difficult to import from countries of origin due to more restrictive international trade laws (the Nagoya Protocol). Coupled with increasing demand, the efficacy of existing and new biocontrol agents needs to be improved with genetic and genomic approaches. Although they have been underutilised in the past, application of genetic and genomic techniques is becoming more feasible from both technological and economic perspectives. We review current methods and provide a framework for using them. First, it is necessary to identify which biocontrol trait to select and in what direction. Next, the genes or markers linked to these traits need be determined, including how to implement this information into a selective breeding program. Choosing a trait can be assisted by modelling to account for the proper agro-ecological context, and by knowing which traits have sufficiently high heritability values. We provide guidelines for designing genomic strategies in biocontrol programs, which depend on the organism, budget, and desired objective. Genomic approaches start with genome sequencing and assembly. We provide a guide for deciding the most successful sequencing strategy for biocontrol agents. Gene discovery involves quantitative trait loci analyses, transcriptomic and proteomic studies, and gene editing. Improving biocontrol practices includes marker-assisted selection, genomic selection and microbiome manipulation of biocontrol agents, and monitoring for genetic variation during rearing and post-release. We conclude by identifying the most promising applications of genetic and genomic methods to improve biological control efficacy.