Diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis in elderly Icelanders and its association with the metabolic syndrome: the AGES-Reykjavik Study.

Objective: To describe the prevalence of diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) in a large population-based study of elderly Icelanders, with particular reference to weight-related factors and the metabolic syndrome.Method: The study population comprised 5321 participants aged 68-96 years (2276 males, mean ± sd age 76 ± 5 , and 3045 females, age 77 ± 6) from the AGES-Reykjavik Study. DISH diagnosis was based on computed tomography (CT) scans, and interpreted strictly by the Resnick criteria and additional suggestions for CT interpretation by Oudkerk et al. Radiology readings were taken by a radiology resident and sample readings by two experienced radiologists.Results: A diagnosis of DISH was made in 13.7% of males and 2.8% of females. There was no association with age, but a strong association was seen with the metabolic syndrome [odds ratio (OR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.69-2.64, p = 3.9 × 10-11]. Among the components of the metabolic syndrome, the association with DISH was significant for the insulin resistance criterion (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.32-2.01, p < 0.001) and the body mass index (BMI) criterion (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.70-2.74, p < 0.001). Other weight-related variables (midlife BMI, weight, and abdominal circumference) showed similar associations.Conclusions: This study, which to our knowledge is the largest published study on the prevalence of DISH, shows an association with the metabolic syndrome, particularly with the insulin resistance and BMI criteria. This is analogous with previous reports linking DISH with metabolic causes. In this age category, we did not observe any increase in prevalence with age.

Association of bone turnover markers with volumetric bone loss, periosteal apposition, and fracture risk in older men and women: the AGES-Reykjavik longitudinal study.

Association between serum bone formation and resorption markers and cortical and trabecular bone loss and the concurrent periosteal apposition in a population-based cohort of 1069 older adults was assessed. BTM levels moderately reflect the cellular events at the endosteal and periosteal surfaces but are not associated with fracture risk. INTRODUCTION: We assessed whether circulating bone formation and resorption markers (BTM) were individual predictors for trabecular and cortical bone loss, periosteal expansion, and fracture risk in older adults aged 66 to 93 years from the AGES-Reykjavik study. METHODS: The sample for the quantitative computed tomography (QCT)-derived cortical and trabecular BMD and periosteal expansion analysis consisted of 1069 participants (474 men and 595 women) who had complete baseline (2002 to 2006) and follow-up (2007 to 2011) hip QCT scans and serum baseline BTM. During the median follow-up of 11.7 years (range 5.4-12.5), 54 (11.4 %) men and 182 (30.6 %) women sustained at least one fracture of any type. RESULTS: Increase in BTM levels was associated with faster cortical and trabecular bone loss at the femoral neck and proximal femur in men and women. Higher BTM levels were positively related with periosteal expansion rate at the femoral neck in men. Markers were not associated with fracture risk. CONCLUSION: This data corroborates the notion from few previous studies that both envelopes are metabolically active and that BTM levels may moderately reflect the cellular events at the endosteal and periosteal surfaces. However, our results do not support the routine use of BTM to assess fracture risk in older men and women. In light of these findings, further studies are justified to examine whether systemic markers of bone turnover might prove useful in monitoring skeletal remodeling events and the effects of current osteoporosis drugs at the periosteum.

Epidemiology of fractures in Iceland and secular trends in major osteoporotic fractures 1989-2008.

UNLABELLED: The incidence of the most common fracture types in Iceland is reported based on individual data from the Reykjavik Study 1967-2008. Time trend is reported for the major osteoporotic fractures (MOS) 1989-2008. INTRODUCTION: This study aims to assess the incidence of all fractures in Iceland, with emphasis on the rate of hip fractures, and compare the incidence with other populations as well as examine the secular changes. METHODS: Individuals from the prospective population-based cohort Reykjavik Study were examined between 1967 and 2008 (follow-up 26.5 years), which consisted of 9,116 men and 9,756 women born in 1907-1935, with age range 31-81 years. First fracture incidence was estimated using life table methods with age as the timescale. RESULTS: Fracture rate increased proportionally with age between the sexes for vertebral and proximal humerus but disproportionally for hip and distal forearm fractures. The ratio of first fracture incidence between the sexes varied considerably by site: 2.65 for hip fractures and the highest for distal forearm fractures at 4.83. By the age of 75, 36.7% of women and 21% of men had sustained a fracture, taking into account competing risk of death. The incidence of hip fractures was similar to results previously published from USA, Sweden, Norway, and Scotland. The incidence of MOS fractures in both sexes decreased over the last decade, except hip fractures in men, which remained unchanged, as reflected in the women/men ratio for the hip, which changed from 2.6 to 1.7. CONCLUSION: This study adds information to scarce knowledge on the relative fracture incidence of different fractures. The incidence of MOS fractures increased in the latter part of the last century in both sexes and declined during the last decade, less dramatically for men. This information is important for planning health resources.

The incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture in Iceland and implications for FRAX.

SUMMARY: Based on an extensive cohort study over 25 years, the present study supports the assumption that major osteoporotic fractures can be reasonably predicted from hip fracture rates. INTRODUCTION: The construct for FRAX models depends on algorithms to adjust for double counting of fracture outcomes in some models and in others, to estimate the incidence of a major fracture from hip fracture rates. The aim of the present study was to test the validity of these algorithms in a large prospective cohort. METHODS: The incidence of hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and humerus fracture was determined in the prospective and ongoing population-based Reykjavik Study with follow up of 257,001 person-years. The incidence of a first major fracture was compared with the correction factors used in FRAX to adjust the incidence of several fracture outcomes for double counting. In addition, the incidence of a major osteoporotic fracture estimated from the Icelandic hip fracture rates was compared with the Malmo ratios used in FRAX. RESULTS: The adjustments necessary to account for multiple fracture outcomes were similar to those previously derived from Sweden. Additionally, incidence of a first major osteoporotic fracture was similar to that derived for FRAX models. CONCLUSION: The findings of the present study support the algorithms used in FRAX to estimate the incidence of a first major fracture and the predictive value of hip fracture for other major fractures.

Faster increase in body mass index between ages 8 and 13 is associated with risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Excess childhood weight is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adulthood. Whether this is mediated through adult body mass index (BMI) and associated risk factors such as metabolic derangements remains unclear. The aim was to examine whether childhood BMI velocity (Δkg m(-2) per year) was associated with adult CVD mortality and to examine how adult BMI and cardiometabolic risk factors contribute to the association. METHODS AND RESULTS: Subjects were 1924 Icelanders born between 1921 and 1935 and living in Reykjavik when recruited into a longitudinal study from 1967 to 1991. From ages 8-13 years, BMI velocity was calculated to quantify the association between childhood growth and adult CVD mortality. Deaths from recruitment to 31 December 2009 were extracted from the national register. There were 202 CVD deaths among men and 90 CVD deaths among women (mean follow-up: 25.9 years). Faster BMI velocity from ages 8-13 years was associated with CVD mortality when comparing those in the highest versus lowest tertile with corresponding hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.49 (1.03, 2.15) among men and 2.32 (1.32, 4.08) among women after adjustment for mid-life BMI and CVD risk factors. Faster childhood BMI velocity was associated with elevated CVD risk factors among men at mid-life but these associations were less pronounced among women. CONCLUSION: Faster increase in BMI from ages 8-13 years was associated with an increased CVD mortality risk. Children with early growth spurts coupled with excess weight gain during this transition period from childhood into adolescence should be closely monitored to ensure better health in adulthood.

Proteomic associations with forced expiratory volume - a Mendelian randomisation study.

A decline in forced expiratory volume (FEV1) is a hallmark of obstructive respiratory diseases, an important cause of morbidity among the elderly. While some data exist on biomarkers that are related to FEV1, we sought to do a systematic analysis of causal relations of biomarkers with FEV1. Data from the general population-based AGES-Reykjavik study were used. Proteomic measurements were done using 4,782 DNA aptamers (SOMAmers). Data from 1,648 participants with spirometric data were used to assess the association of SOMAmer measurements with FEV1 using linear regression. Bi-directional Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses were done to assess causal relations of observationally associated SOMAmers with FEV1, using genotype and SOMAmer data from 5,368 AGES-Reykjavik participants and genetic associations with FEV1 from a publicly available GWAS (n = 400,102). In observational analyses, 473 SOMAmers were associated with FEV1 after multiple testing adjustment. The most significant were R-Spondin 4, Alkaline Phosphatase, Placental Like 2 and Retinoic Acid Receptor Responder 2. Of the 235 SOMAmers with genetic data, eight were associated with FEV1 in MR analyses. Three were directionally consistent with the observational estimate, Thrombospondin 2 (THBS2), Endoplasmic Reticulum Oxidoreductase 1 Beta and Apolipoprotein M. THBS2 was further supported by a colocalization analysis. Analyses in the reverse direction, testing whether changes in SOMAmer levels were caused by changes in FEV1, were performed but no significant associations were found after multiple testing adjustments. In summary, this large scale proteogenomic analyses of FEV1 reveals protein markers of FEV1, as well as several proteins with potential causality to lung function.

Retinopathy in old persons with and without diabetes mellitus: the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility--Reykjavik Study (AGES-R).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to describe the prevalence of retinopathy in an aged cohort of Icelanders with and without diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The study population consisted of 4,994 persons aged ≥ 67 years, who participated in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (AGES-R). Type 2 diabetes mellitus was defined as HbA(1c) ≥ 6.5% (>48 mmol/mol). Retinopathy was assessed by grading fundus photographs using the modified Airlie House adaptation of the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study protocol. Associations between retinopathy and risk factors were estimated using odds ratios obtained from multivariate analyses. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of retinopathy in AGES-R was 12.4%. Diabetes mellitus was present in 516 persons (10.3%), for 512 of whom gradable fundus photos were available, including 138 persons (27.0%, 95% CI 23.2, 31.0) with any retinopathy. Five persons (1.0%, 95% CI 0.3, 2.3) had proliferative retinopathy. Clinically significant macular oedema was present in five persons (1.0%, 95% CI 0.3, 2.3). Independent risk factors for retinopathy in diabetic patients in a multivariate model included HbA(1c), insulin use and use of oral hypoglycaemic agents, the last two being indicators of longer disease duration. In 4478 participants without diabetes mellitus, gradable fundus photos were available for 4,453 participants, with retinopathy present in 476 (10.7%, 95% CI 9.8, 11.6) and clinically significant macular oedema in three persons. Independent risk factors included increasing age and microalbuminuria. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Over three-quarters (78%) of retinopathy cases were found in persons without diabetes and a strong association between microalbuminuria and non-diabetic retinopathy was found. These results may have implications for patient management of the aged.

Individual risk assessment and information technology to optimise screening frequency for diabetic retinopathy.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to reduce the frequency of diabetic eye-screening visits, while maintaining safety, by using information technology and individualised risk assessment to determine screening intervals. METHODS: A mathematical algorithm was created based on epidemiological data on risk factors for diabetic retinopathy. Through a website, www.risk.is , the algorithm receives clinical data, including type and duration of diabetes, HbA(1c) or mean blood glucose, blood pressure and the presence and grade of retinopathy. These data are used to calculate risk for sight-threatening retinopathy for each individual's worse eye over time. A risk margin is defined and the algorithm recommends the screening interval for each patient with standardised risk of developing sight-threatening retinopathy (STR) within the screening interval. We set the risk margin so that the same number of patients develop STR within the screening interval with either fixed annual screening or our individualised screening system. The database for diabetic retinopathy at the Department of Ophthalmology, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, was used to empirically test the efficacy of the algorithm. Clinical data exist for 5,199 patients for 20 years and this allows testing of the algorithm in a prospective manner. RESULTS: In the Danish diabetes database, the algorithm recommends screening intervals ranging from 6 to 60 months with a mean of 29 months. This is 59% fewer visits than with fixed annual screening. This amounts to 41 annual visits per 100 patients. CONCLUSION: Information technology based on epidemiological data may facilitate individualised determination of screening intervals for diabetic eye disease. Empirical testing suggests that this approach may be less expensive than conventional annual screening, while not compromising safety. The algorithm determines individual risk and the screening interval is individually determined based on each person's risk profile. The algorithm has potential to save on healthcare resources and patients' working hours by reducing the number of screening visits for an ever increasing number of diabetic patients in the world.

Quantitative 3D imaging parameters improve prediction of hip osteoarthritis outcome.

Osteoarthritis is an increasingly important health problem for which the main treatment remains joint replacement. Therapy developments have been hampered by a lack of biomarkers that can reliably predict disease, while 2D radiographs interpreted by human observers are still the gold standard for clinical trial imaging assessment. We propose a 3D approach using computed tomography-a fast, readily available clinical technique-that can be applied in the assessment of osteoarthritis using a new quantitative 3D analysis technique called joint space mapping (JSM). We demonstrate the application of JSM at the hip in 263 healthy older adults from the AGES-Reykjavík cohort, examining relationships between 3D joint space width, 3D joint shape, and future joint replacement. Using JSM, statistical shape modelling, and statistical parametric mapping, we show an 18% improvement in prediction of joint replacement using 3D metrics combined with radiographic Kellgren & Lawrence grade (AUC 0.86) over the existing 2D FDA-approved gold standard of minimum 2D joint space width (AUC 0.73). We also show that assessment of joint asymmetry can reveal significant differences between individuals destined for joint replacement versus controls at regions of the joint that are not captured by radiographs. This technique is immediately implementable with standard imaging technologies.

The interaction of adiposity with the CRP gene affects CRP levels: age, gene/environment susceptibilty-Reykjavik study.

OBJECTIVE: Common diseases often have an inflammatory component reflected by associated markers such as serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Circulating CRP levels have also been associated with adipose tissue as well as with specific CRP genotypes. We examined the interaction between measures of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and fat percent (total fat measured by bioimpedance) with genotypes of the CRP gene in the determination of CRP levels. METHODS: The first 2296 participants (mean age 76+/-6 years, 42% men) in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study, a multidisciplinary epidemiological study to determine risk factors in aging, were genotyped for 10 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CRP gene. General linear models with age and terms for interaction of CRP genotypes with BMI, waist circumference and percent fat were used to evaluate the association of genotypes to CRP levels (high-sensitivity method, range 0-10 mg l(-1)) in men and women separately. RESULTS: We focused on the SNP rs1205 that represents the allele that captures the strongest effects of the gene on CRP levels. Carriers of the rs1205 G allele had significantly higher CRP levels than noncarriers in a dose-dependent manner. Compared to the AA genotype, the slope of the increase in CRP with increasing BMI (P=0.045) and waist circumference (P=0.014) was different for the G allele carriers and of similar magnitude in both men and women. The rs1205 interactions were not significant for fat mass percent, suggesting a possible association with fat localization. CONCLUSIONS: This study further illuminates the known association between measures of adiposity and CRP levels and is shown to be dependent on variation in the rs1205 SNP of the CRP gene. The correlated increase in CRP levels with adiposity is accentuated by presence of the G allele.

Hand osteoarthritis in older women is associated with carotid and coronary atherosclerosis: the AGES Reykjavik study.

OBJECTIVE: There is evidence that atherosclerosis may contribute to the initiation or progression of osteoarthritis. To test this hypothesis, the presence and severity of hand osteoarthritis (HOA) was compared with markers of atherosclerotic vascular disease in an elderly population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The AGES Reykjavik Study is a population-based multidisciplinary study of ageing in the elderly population of Reykjavik. In a study of 2264 men (mean age 76 years; SD 6) and 3078 women (mean age 76 years; SD 6) the severity of HOA, scored from photographs, was compared with measures of atherosclerosis. These included carotid intimal thickness and plaque severity, coronary calcifications (CAC) and aortic calcifications and reported cardiac and cerebrovascular events. RESULTS: After adjustment for confounders, both carotid plaque severity and CAC were significantly associated with HOA in women, with an odds ratio of 1.42 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.76, p = 0.002) for having CAC and 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.49, p = 0.016) for having moderate or severe carotid plaques. Both carotid plaques and CAC also exhibited significant linear trends in relation to HOA severity in women in the whole AGES Reykjavik cohort (p<0.001 and p = 0.027, respectively, for trend). No significant associations were seen in men. Despite this evidence of increased atherosclerosis, women with HOA did not report proportionally more previous cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate a linear association between the severity of HOA and atherosclerosis in older women. The pathological process of HOA seems to have some components in common with atherosclerosis. Prospective studies may help elucidate the possible mechanisms of this relationship.

High hand joint mobility is associated with radiological CMC1 osteoarthritis: the AGES-Reykjavik study.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have indicated that joint hypermobility may affect the development of clinical and radiological hand osteoarthritis (OA), but this question has not been addressed in epidemiological studies. Our objective was to investigate this relationship in a population-based study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study group consisted of 384 unselected older participants in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (161 males, median age 76, range 69-90, and 223 females median age 75, range 69-92). The criterion used for joint mobility was the single maximal degree of hyperextension of digits 2 and 5 on both hands (HYP degrees). RESULTS: HYP degrees was more prevalent in females and on the left hand in both men and women. Both genders had a positive association between the degree of mobility measured by HYP degrees and radiological scores for the first carpometacarpal joint (CMC1) OA. Thus, those with HYP degrees >or=70 had an odds ratio of 3.05 (1.69-5.5, P<0.001) of having a Kellgren-Lawrence score of >or=3 in a CMC1 joint. There was also a trend towards a negative association between HYP degrees and proximal interphalangeal joint scores. CONCLUSION: Hand joint mobility, defined as hyperextension in the metacarpophalangeal joints (HYP degrees ) is more prevalent in females and on the left side. It was associated with more severe radiographic OA in the CMC1 joints in this population. The reasons for this relationship are not known, but likely explanations involve ligament laxity and CMC1 joint stability. These findings may relate to the left-sided predominance of radiographic OA in the CMC1 joints observed in many prevalence studies.

C-reactive protein in migraine sufferers similar to that of non-migraineurs: the Reykjavik Study.

C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of inflammation, has been associated with cardiovascular disease. Risk of cardiovascular disease is increased in migraineurs with aura. Results from a clinical report, case-control and a cohort study suggest that CRP is elevated in migraineurs compared with non-migraineurs. We examined the proposed association in a case-control study nested within two large population-based studies. The relationship between migraine and CRP (high-sensitivity CRP) was studied in 5906 men and women aged 55.0 +/- 8.5 years in the Reykjavik Study and 1345 men and women aged 27.7 +/- 5.5 years from the Reykjavik Study for the Young. A modified version of the International Headache Society's criteria was used to categorize people into migraineurs (two or more symptoms) or non-migraineurs. Migraineurs with visual or sensory symptoms were further defined as having migraine with aura (MA) or without aura (MO). Multivariable-adjusted CRP levels were similar in migraineurs and non-migraineurs for men (0.83 vs. 0.79 mg/l, P = 0.44) and for women (0.87 vs. 0.87 mg/l, P = 0.90). When further stratified by migraine aura and age, no differences were found between non-migraineurs, MO and MA among men. In women, CRP levels were borderline higher in those with MO compared with non-migraineurs and those with MA (1.01 mg/l vs. 0.81 and 0.75 mg/l, P = 0.08 and P = 0.08) in age group 19-34 years, but significantly lower in age group 60-81 years (0.52 mg/l vs. 1.07 and 1.01 mg/l, P = 0.007 and P = 0.03). CRP levels were not increased among migraine sufferers compared with non-migraineurs. Older women migraineurs without aura had lower CRP values than non-migraineurs and migraineurs with aura.

Biofidelic finite element models for accurately classifying hip fracture in a retrospective clinical study of elderly women from the AGES Reykjavik cohort.

Clinical retrospective studies have only reported limited improvements in hip fracture classification accuracy using finite element (FE) models compared to conventional areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements. A possible explanation is that state-of-the-art quasi-static models do not estimate patient-specific loads. A novel FE modeling technique was developed to improve the biofidelity of simulated impact loading from sideways falling. This included surrogate models of the pelvis, lower extremities, and soft tissue that were morphed based on subject anthropometrics. Hip fracture prediction models based on aBMD and FE measurements were compared in a retrospective study of 254 elderly female subjects from the AGES-Reykjavik study. Subject fragility ratio (FR) was defined as the ratio between the ultimate forces of paired biofidelic models, one with linear elastic and the other with non-linear stress-strain relationships in the proximal femur. The expected end-point value (EEV) was defined as the FR weighted by the probability of one sideways fall over five years, based on self-reported fall frequency at baseline. The change in maximum volumetric strain (ΔMVS) on the surface of the femoral neck was calculated between time of ultimate femur force and 90% post-ultimate force in order to assess the extent of tensile tissue damage present in non-linear models. After age-adjusted logistic regression, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) was highest for ΔMVS (0.72), followed by FR (0.71), aBMD (0.70), and EEV (0.67), however the differences between FEA and aBMD based prediction models were not deemed statistically significant. When subjects with no history of falling were excluded from the analysis, thus artificially assuming that falls were known a priori with no uncertainty, a statistically significant difference in AUC was detected between ΔMVS (0.85), and aBMD (0.74). Multivariable linear regression suggested that the variance in maximum elastic femur force was best explained by femoral head radius, pelvis width, and soft tissue thickness (R2 = 0.79; RMSE = 0.46 kN; p < 0.005). Weighting the hip fracture prediction models based on self-reported fall frequency did not improve the models' sensitivity, however excluding non-fallers lead to significant differences between aBMD and FE based models. These findings suggest that an accurate assessment of fall probability is necessary for accurately identifying individuals predisposed to hip fracture.

Cerebral microbleeds in the population based AGES-Reykjavik study: prevalence and location.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Incidental foci of signal loss suggestive of cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are frequent findings on gradient echo T2* weighted MRI (T2* MRI) of patients with haemorrhagic or ischaemic stroke. There are few prevalence data on older populations. This paper reports on the prevalence and location of CMBs in a community based cohort of older men and women (born 1907-1935) who participated in the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study, a population based cohort study that followed the Reykjavik Study METHODS: As part of the examination, all eligible and consenting cohort members underwent a full brain MRI, and blood was drawn for genotyping. Results are based on the first 1962 men (n = 820) and women (n = 1142), mean age 76 years, with complete MRI and demographic information available. RESULTS: Evidence of CMBs was found in 218 participants (11.1% (95% CI 9.8% to 12.6%)); men had significantly more CMBs than women (14.4% vs 8.8%; p = 0.0002, age adjusted). The prevalence of CMBs increased with age (p = 0.0001) in both men (p = 0.006) and women (p = 0.007). CMBs were located in the cerebral lobes (70%), the basal ganglia region (10.5%) and infratentorium (18.6%). Having a CMB was significantly associated with a homozygote Apo E epsilon4epsilon4 genotype (p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Cerebral microbleeds are common in older persons. The association with homozygote Apo E epsilon4 genotype and finding a relative predominance in the parietal lobes might indicate an association with amyloid angiopathy.

Associations between Proportion of Plasma Phospholipid Fatty Acids, Depressive Symptoms and Major Depressive Disorder. Cross-Sectional Analyses from the AGES Reykjavik Study.

BACKGROUND: Deficits in n-3 fatty acids may be associated with depression. However, data are scarce from older adults who are at greater risk of poor dietary intake and of developing depression. OBJECTIVE: To investigate proportion of plasma phospholipid fatty acids with respect to depressive symptoms and major depressive disorder in community dwelling older adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of 1571 participants in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study aged 67-93 years. Depressive symptoms were measured using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). Major depressive disorder was assessed according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). RESULTS: Depressive symptoms were observed in 195 (12.4%) subjects and there were 27 (1.7%) cases of major depressive disorder. Participants with depressive symptoms were less educated, more likely to be smokers, less physically active and consumed cod liver oil less frequently. Difference in GDS-15 scores by tertiles of n-3 fatty acid proportion was not significant. Proportion of long chain n-3 fatty acids (Eicosapentaenoic- + Docosahexaenoic acid) were inversely related to major depressive disorder, (tertile 2 vs. tertile 1) OR: 0.31 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.86); tertile 3 vs. tertile 1, OR: 0.45 (95% CI: 0.17, 1.21). CONCLUSION: In our cross sectional analyses low proportions of long chain n-3 fatty acids in plasma phospholipids appear to be associated with increased risk of major depressive disorder. However, the results from this study warrant further investigation in prospective setting with sufficiently long follow-up.

Increasing glucose levels and BMI predict future heart failure experience from the Reykjavík Study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is common in diabetes and ischaemic heart disease is the most likely link. Still, it has been suggested that the relation extends beyond such disease. METHODS: 7060 subjects with two or more visits in the Reykjavík Study were followed--during 30 years from 1967. All underwent oral glucose tolerance tests. Disease status was defined according to the glycaemic level and presence of heart failure. The incidence and predictive factors for these diseases were determined. FINDINGS: Age and sex standardized incidence of heart failure was 5.3/1000/year, of diabetes 4.6/1000/year and abnormal glucose regulation 12.6/1000/year. Body mass index (BMI) and fasting glucose predicted the development of these conditions (p<0.001). Increasing fasting glucose by 1 mmol/l increased the risk for heart failure by 14% (p=0.04) after adjusting for IHD, BMI and other risk factors for CVD. There was a strong association between diabetes and heart failure, OR 3.0 (2.3-4.0), and abnormal glucose regulation and heart failure, OR 1.8 (1.5-2.3). Diabetes and heart failure were, however, not independent predictors of each other. INTERPRETATION: There was an independent relationship between increases in fasting glucose and development of heart failure. BMI was a strong predictor of heart failure. Although fasting glucose and BMI were significant risk factors for glucose disturbances and heart failure the conditions themselves did not independently predict each other.

Clinical features in secondary and cryptogenic organising pneumonia.

SETTING: The clinical differences between cryptogenic organising pneumonia (COP) and secondary organising pneumonia (OP) have not been studied well. OBJECTIVE: To compare clinical features in COP and secondary OP. DESIGN: Causes, clinical features, treatment, radiographic studies and pathology were studied. RESULTS: After re-evaluation, 104 patients fulfilled the diagnostic criteria, 58 for COP and 46 for secondary OP. The mean age was 68 years. Most of the patients were smokers (79/104). Infections were the most common causes of secondary OP (21/46). Cough was the most common symptom and crackles the most common sign. Crackles were more common in patients with secondary OP (P = 0.02). Transbronchial biopsy was the diagnostic test in 81/104 cases. Most patients had lowered partial oxygen pressure (PO(2)) and mildly restrictive spirometry, with no differences between the two groups. Radiographic features were similar. Corticosteroids were the treatment in 70% of the patients, but 27% received no pharmacological treatment. The average initial dose of steroids was 42 mg prednisolone, and was similar for both groups. Relapses were seen in 20% of cases, with no difference between the two groups. CONCLUSION: There were no major differences in clinical features of COP and secondary OP, except that crackles were more common in secondary OP.

Optimum expression of adult lung function based on all-cause mortality: results from the Reykjavik study.

A variety of reference curves are used to derive predicted values for adult lung function, even within ethnically similar populations. Alternatives to percentage predicted value are sometimes used to allow for height in research. Strength of association with total mortality can be used to choose the optimal expression, between forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV(1)) divided by height(2), FEV(1)/height(3), FEV(1)% predicted and difference from predicted. Data from the Reykjavik Study cohort, 1976-2002, included 5544 men and 8062 women randomly selected from the population. Total mortality was analysed by Cox proportional hazards regression in relation to each height-adjusted measure, allowing for age group, period of recruitment and body mass index, and smoking before or at baseline. FEV(1)/height(2) and FEV(1)/height(3) had stronger associations with mortality than FEV(1)% predicted and difference from predicted in men and in women. There were similar findings for forced vital capacity (FVC) in non-smokers and in women. FEV(1)/height(2) was slightly better predictive than FEV(1)/height(3) in men, but distributions of FEV(1)/height(3) in men and women were closer than those of FEV(1)/height(2). Clinical practise and epidemiological research would benefit from agreement on how to adjust lung function for height. Replication of these analyses in other cohort studies would inform the choice between FEV(1)/height(2) and FEV(1)/height(3).

Individualised risk assessment for diabetic retinopathy and optimisation of screening intervals: a scientific approach to reducing healthcare costs.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a mathematical algorithm that calculates risk of diabetic retinopathy progression in a diabetic population with UK staging (R0-3; M1) of diabetic retinopathy. To establish the utility of the algorithm to reduce screening frequency in this cohort, while maintaining safety standards. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The cohort of 9690 diabetic individuals in England, followed for 2 years. The algorithms calculated individual risk for development of preproliferative retinopathy (R2), active proliferative retinopathy (R3A) and diabetic maculopathy (M1) based on clinical data. Screening intervals were determined such that the increase in risk of developing certain stages of retinopathy between screenings was the same for all patients and identical to mean risk in fixed annual screening. Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn and area under the curve calculated to estimate the prediction capability. RESULTS: The algorithm predicts the occurrence of the given diabetic retinopathy stages with area under the curve =80% for patients with type II diabetes (CI 0.78 to 0.81). Of the cohort 64% is at less than 5% risk of progression to R2, R3A or M1 within 2 years. By applying a 2 year ceiling to the screening interval, patients with type II diabetes are screened on average every 20 months, which is a 40% reduction in frequency compared with annual screening. CONCLUSIONS: The algorithm reliably identifies patients at high risk of developing advanced stages of diabetic retinopathy, including preproliferative R2, active proliferative R3A and maculopathy M1. Majority of patients have less than 5% risk of progression between stages within a year and a small high-risk group is identified. Screening visit frequency and presumably costs in a diabetic retinopathy screening system can be reduced by 40% by using a 2 year ceiling. Individualised risk assessment with 2 year ceiling on screening intervals may be a pragmatic next step in diabetic retinopathy screening in UK, in that safety is maximised and cost reduced by about 40%.