Estimation of health hazards resulting from a radiological terrorist attack in a city.

In recent years, the concern for protection of urban populations against terror attacks involving radiological, biological or chemical substances has attracted increasing attention. It sets new demands to decision support and consequence assessment tools, where the focus has traditionally been on accidental exposure. The aim of the present study was to illustrate issues that need to be considered in evaluating the radiological consequences of a 'dirty bomb' explosion. This is done through a worked example of simplified calculations of relative dose contributions for a specific 'dirty bomb' scenario leading to atmospheric dispersion of 90Sr contamination over a city area. Also, the requirements of atmospheric dispersion models for such scenarios are discussed.

Glucosamine and experimental atherosclerosis. Increased wet weight and changed composition of cholesterol fatty acids in aorta of rabbits fed a cholesterol-enriched diet with added glucosamine.

Three groups of each 12 rabbits were fed a cholesterol-enriched diet. Glucosamine was added in amounts of 0.5% and 2.0% (w/w) to the diet of two of the groups, while the third group served as a control group. The amount of cholesterol in the diet was individually adjusted, so that all rabbits experimental period. Glucosamine did not affect the concentration response of serum cholesterol to dietary cholesterol or the amount of free and esterified cholesterol in the inner aorta. It did, however, cause an increase in the wet weight of the inner aorta with a corresponding decrease in the concentration of aortic cholesterol. Furthermore a decrease in the ratio between mono-unsaturated and di-unsaturated fatty acids of the cholesterol esters of serum and inner aorta were observed in the animals which received glucosamine.

A nicotinic acid ester and experimental atherosclerosis: no significant effect of treatment with niceritrol (pentaerythritoltetranicotinate) on cholesterol in aorta of rabbits previously fed with cholesterol-enriched diet.

The influence of niceritrol on cholesterol in serum, liver and inner aorta of 115 rabbits was studied during a period where a cholesterol-enriched diet was given and during two succeeding periods after which cholesterol addition to the diet was discontinued. Niceritrol given together with cholesterol for 6 weeks reduced significantly the concentration of cholesterol in serum and liver, but not in the inner aorta. During 16 weeks decrease of serum cholesterol after discontinuation of cholesterol feeding no significant effect of niceritrol was observed on the decrease in serum and liver cholesterol or on the concentration of cholesterol in inner aorta. When serum cholesterol had normalized 16 weeks after discontinuation of cholesterol feeding, addition of niceritrol to the diet for the following 16 weeks did not significantly affect the concentration of cholesterol in liver and inner aorta. Animals in all groups were injected intravenously with an equal amount of [3H] cholesterol 3 weeks before discontinuing cholesterol feeding. Niceritrol did not significantly affect the amount of accumulated labelled cholesterol in inner aorta. The present results indicated that niceritrol had no significant effects on metabolism of cholesterol in inner aorta of the hypercholesterolemic and previously hypercholesterolemic rabbits.

Effect of carbon monoxide exposure on aortic and coronary intimal morphology in the rabbit. A revaluation.

Non-cholesterol-fed rabbits were exposed to carbon monoxide at concentrations in air of either 200, 2000, or 4000 parts per million (=0.02, 0.2 or 0.4%, vol/vol). Using the same criteria for intimal damage as in earlier morphological studies, no histotoxic effect on intimal/subintimal morphology of coronary arteries or the aorta could be demonstrated, when light-microscopic evaluation was performed blindly.

Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland, during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom.

The results of a detailed assessment of the atmospheric conditions when foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus was released from Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland at the start of the 2001 epidemic in the UK are consistent with the hypothesis that the disease was spread to seven of the 12 farms in the immediate vicinity of the source by airborne virus, and airborne infection could not be ruled out for three other premises; the remaining two premises were unlikely to have been infected by airborne virus. The distances involved ranged from less than 1 km up to 9 km. One of the farms which was most probably infected by airborne virus from Burnside Farm was Prestwick Hall Farm, which is believed to have been key to the rapid spread of the disease throughout the country. In contrast, the results of detailed atmospheric modelling, based on a combination of clinical evidence from the field and laboratory experiments have shown that by assuming a relationship between the 24-hour average virus concentrations and subsequent infection, threshold infection levels were seldom reached at the farms close to Burnside Farm. However, significant short-term fluctuations in the concentration of virus can occur, and short-lived high concentrations may have increased the probability of infection and explain this discrepancy.

Moderate hypoxia exposure and fetal development.

Exposure of rabbits to 15.5% oxygen during pregnancy resulted in a 17% decrease of birth weight and a neonatal mortality of 19% as opposed to 1% in the control groups, just corresponding to the effects obtained previously by moderate exposure of pregnant rabbits to carbon monoxide. Since additive effects of hypoxia exposure and carbon monoxide exposure are supposed to occur, it is concluded that women living at a high altitude should be warned particularly about the risk of delivering small babies if they have been smoking during their pregnancy.

Data assimilation in the decision support system rodos.

Model predictions for a rapid assessment and prognosis of possible radiological consequences after an accidental release of radionuclides play an important role in nuclear emergency management. Radiological observations, e.g. dose rate measurements, can be used to improve such model predictions. The process of combining model predictions and observations, usually referred to as data assimilation, is described in this article within the framework of the real time on-line decision support system (RODOS) for off-site nuclear emergency management in Europe. Data assimilation capabilities, based on Kalman filters, are under development for several modules of the RODOS system, including the atmospheric dispersion, deposition, food chain and hydrological models. The use of such a generic data assimilation methodology enables the propagation of uncertainties throughout the various modules of the system. This would in turn provide decision makers with uncertainty estimates taking into account both model and observation errors. This paper describes the methodology employed as well as results of some preliminary studies based on simulated data.

Can the confidence in long range atmospheric transport models be increased? The pan-european experience of ensemble.

Is atmospheric dispersion forecasting an important asset of the early-phase nuclear emergency response management? Is there a 'perfect atmospheric dispersion model'? Is there a way to make the results of dispersion models more reliable and trustworthy? While seeking to answer these questions the multi-model ensemble dispersion forecast system ENSEMBLE will be presented.