The declining trend in HIV prevalence from population-based surveys in Cameroon between 2004 and 2018: myth or reality in the universal test and treat era?

BACKGROUND: HIV remains an epidemic of major public health importance in Cameroon but a decline in HIV prevalence has been observed according to population-based surveys conducted in 2004, 2011 and 2018. We sought to review current evidence for declining HIV prevalence despite increasing survival owing to 'universal test and treat' and to explore the reason for the decrease, particularly the role of behavioural change. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis using HIV prevalence, behavioural and social determinants data of the Demographic and Health Survey Program databases. Trend lines were fitted to data that were available for a minimum of three points in time during the 1991-2018 period. Regression coefficients associated p-values and 95% confidence intervals were obtained using Microsoft Excel software. RESULTS: Overall adult HIV prevalence decreased significantly from 5.4% (95%CI: 4.8-6.0) in 2004 to 4.3% (95%CI: 3.8-4.8) in 2011 and further down to 2.7% (95%CI: 2.3-3.1) in 2018 at a rate of about 1.4% every septennium (ß = -1.4, R² = 0.98, p = 0.03). Yet, the number of persons surviving with HIV increased from about 0.05 million in 1991 to 0.5 million in 2018 corresponding to an increase in access to antiretroviral therapy from less than 10% to universal coverage of 80% respectively. Concurrent reductions in risky sexual behaviours were observed: a delayed sexual debut by one year, decreased sexual violence by 7%, decreased polygamous unions by 16%, decreased multiple sexual partners by 15.3% and increased condom use by 26.3%. CONCLUSION: The observed decline in HIV prevalence is statistically valid and reflects the observed decline in risky sexual behaviour that need to be sustained by the National HIV programme. Though universal access to ART has increased the number of persons surviving with HIV, this has not led to an increased prevalence of HIV in a setting with a rising population.

Changes in access to viral load testing, incidence rates of viral load suppression and rebound following the introduction of the 'universal test and treat' guidelines in Cameroon: A retrospective follow-up analysis.

Cameroon adopted and started implementing in 2016, the 'universal test and treat' (UTT) guidelines to fast-track progress towards the 95-95-95 ambitious targets to end the HIV epidemic. Achieving the third 95 (viral load suppression) is the most desirable target in HIV care. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of this novel approach on access to viral load testing (VLT), viral suppression (VLS), and viral load rebound (VLR). A retrospective cohort study was conducted at The Nkongsamba Regional Hospital to compare VLT outcomes between the pre-UTT (2002 to 2015) and the post-UTT (2016 to 2020) periods. We used a data extraction form to collect routine data on adult patients living with HIV. We measured uptake levels of the first and serial VLT and compared the incidence rates of VLS (VL<1000 copies/ml) and viral load rebound (VLR) before and after introducing the UTT approach using Kaplan Meier plots and log-rank tests. Cox regression was used to screen for factors independently associated with VLS and VLR events between the guideline periods. Access to initial VLT increased significantly from 6.11% to 25.56% at 6 months and from 12.00% to 73.75% at 12 months before and after introducing the UTT guidelines respectively. After a total observation time at risk of 17001.63 person-months, the UTT group achieved an incidence rate of 90.36 VLS per 1000 person-months, four-fold higher than the 21.71 VLS per 1000 person-months observed in the pre-UTT group (p<0.0001). After adjusting for confounding, the VLS rate was about 6-fold higher in the UTT group than in the pre-UTT group (adjusted Hazard Rate (aHR) = 5.81 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 4.43-7.60). The incidence of VLR increased from 12.60 (95%CI: 9.50-16.72) to 19.11 (95%CI: 14.22-25.67) per 1000 person-months before and after the introduction of UTT guidelines respectively. After adjusting, VLR was more than twice as high in the UTT group than in the pre-UTT group (aHR = 2.32, 95%CI: 1.30-4.13). Increased access to initial VLT and higher rates of VLS have been observed but there are concerns that the suppressed viral load may not be durable since the introduction of the UTT policy in this setting.

The effect of the Universal Test and Treat policy uptake on CD4 count testing and incidence of opportunistic infections among people living with HIV infection in Cameroon: a retrospective analysis of routine data.

Background: Cameroon adopted and started implementing in 2016, the 'universal test and treat' (UTT) guidelines to fast-track progress towards the 95-95-95 ambitious targets to end the HIV epidemic. UTT has shown inconsistent results elsewhere and has not yet been assessed in Cameroon. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of this novel approach on the quality of care and health outcomes of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Methods: A retrospective cohort design was conducted at The Nkongsamba Regional Hospital, using routine clinical service delivery data to measure uptake levels of UTT and CD4 testing, and to compare the incidence of opportunistic infections (OI) between PLHIV initiated on ART based on the "Universal Test and Treat" strategy and those initiated on ART based on the standard deferred approach between 2002 and 2020. Kaplan Meier plots and log-rank tests were used to compare OI events between the pre-UTT and post-UTT eras. The Cox regression model was used to screen for factors independently associated with the risk of acquisition of OI. Results: The uptake of UTT ranged from 39.1% to 92.8% while baseline CD4 count testing reduced drastically from 89.4% to 0.4% between 2016 to 2020 respectively. The median delay in ART initiation declined significantly from 21 days (IQR: 9 - 113) in the pre-UTT era to the same day of diagnosis (IQR: 0 - 2) in the UTT era (p < 0.001). The incidence of all OI events reported was over five times higher during the UTT era than in the pre-UTT era [aHR = 5.55 (95% CI: 3.18 - 9.69), p < 0.001]. Conclusion: The UTT policy has been effectively rolled out and has contributed to improved access to rapid and immediate ART initiation, but a higher incidence of OIs was observed with a rollback of baseline CD4 testing. We advocate for a return to routine baseline CD4 measurement to identify PLHIV who should benefit from interventions to prevent OIs for optimal outcomes under the UTT approach.