Reevaluation of the pretransplant assessment of mortality score after allogeneic hematopoietic transplantation.

The Pretransplant Assessment of Mortality (PAM) score was developed in 2006 to predict risk of mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). Transplant practices have evolved during the past decade, suggesting the need to reevaluate the performance of the PAM score. We used statistical modeling to analyze and recalibrate mortality based on overall PAM scores, its components, and conditioning regimen in a retrospective cohort of 1549 patients who had HCT from 2003 through 2009. PAM scores correlated with mortality, but the effect size was smaller in the current study than in previous studies. PAM scores also demonstrated a stronger association with mortality in patients who received myeloablative conditioning than in those who received reduced-intensity conditioning. In contrast to the original study, carbon monoxide diffusing capacity, serum alanine aminotransferase, and serum creatinine concentrations were no longer significantly associated with 2-year mortality, whereas patient and donor cytomegalovirus serology was associated with mortality in the current cohort. Based on our findings, we developed and tested a revised PAM score for clinicians to estimate survival after allogeneic HCT with myeloablative conditioning regimens for patients with hematologic malignancy. Prognostic models such as the PAM score should be updated and recalibrated periodically to accommodate changes in clinical practice.

Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome epidemiology after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) is a pulmonary complication of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (aHCT). Recent National Institutes of Health consensus diagnostic criteria for BOS have not been assessed in a clinical setting. Modified National Institutes of Health diagnostic consensus criteria for BOS were applied to evaluate its prevalence, risk factors, and outcomes in the modern era of aHCT. Pulmonary function tests from 1145 patients were screened to identify patients with new-onset airflow obstruction. Clinical records were reviewed to exclude pulmonary infection and other causes. The overall prevalence of BOS among all transplanted patients was 5.5%, and 14% among patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD). The median time from transplant to meeting spirometric criteria for BOS was 439 days (range: 274-1690). Although many previously identified risk factors were not significantly associated, lower baseline FEV(1)/FVC ratio (P = .006), non-Caucasian race (P = .014), lower circulating IgG level (P = .010), and presence of cGVHD (P < 0.001) were associated with an increase in risk, with the latter associated with a 10-fold increase in risk. Multivariate analysis indicated that BOS conferred a 1.6-fold increase in risk for mortality after diagnosis. These results suggest that the National Institutes of Health diagnostic criteria can reliably identify BOS, and that it is more prevalent than previously suggested. Spirometric monitoring of high-risk patients with cGVHD may permit earlier detection and intervention for this often-fatal disease.