Obstetric transition: trends in maternal mortality in Somalia over the last two decades.

BACKGROUND: This paper sheds light on the trends of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and obstetric transition in Somalia over the last two decades. METHODS: This is a descriptive study comparing aggregate secondary data from the 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and the 2020 Somali Health and Demographic Survey to show the transition. RESULTS: A 44% reduction of the MMR from 1044 to 692 per 100 000 live births was observed comparing the two surveys. CONCLUSIONS: Somalia has moved from stage I to stage II of the obstetric transition pathway spectrum and there is optimism that the ongoing strengthening of the health system is paying off.

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) use among household members for protection against mosquito bite in Mogadishu districts.

Understanding long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) utilization is important in monitoring and quantifying the impact of past and current prevention and control efforts of malaria. A cross-sectional study was carried out on a sample of 409 households in Mogadishu, to estimate the LLIN use and assess barriers to its utilization. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on demographics, malaria-related knowledge, and the use of preventive measures. LLINs use was assessed using multivariable generalized estimating equations with adjustment for clustering of study participants within the same household. Out of 409 households only 155 (37.9%) owned LLINs. Out of 237 owned LLINs, 199 (84.0%) were used. Median household size being 6.0 (3.0), intra-household net accessibility was low, with one net (42.6%) frequent. Most nets were from mass distribution (55.7%) and obtained '12 months ago'. Un-partnered respondents (unadjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.34, 95% CI 0.14, 0.82; p = 0.017) compared with partnered (married) respondents, large-sized household (adjusted OR 0.83, 96% CI 0.74-0.94; p = 0.002). There was marginal evidence of a greater odds of LLIN utilization among respondents knowledgeable of the correct cause of malaria, that is, mosquito bites (AOR 3.19, 95% CI 0.77, 13.2; p = 0.11) but was not statistically significant. Among households owning nets, most of the LLINs were hung the night prior to the survey (7.9% versus 98%) and was associated with greater marginal odds of utilization (p<0.001). Ownership of LLINs is insufficient in Mogadishu districts affecting household-level access and utilization. If this is not checked, this could weaken the progress made on malaria control efforts. LLIN utilization was modest and largely driven by recently acquired nets showing a desire to utilize them despite low coverage. These imply that mass and facility-based distribution, and awareness campaigns will remain relevant, but efforts for willingness-to-pay for LLINs should be strengthened to sustain coverage and replacements of worn-out nets.

Cardiovascular risk factors and clinical outcomes of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia in Somalia.

Background: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a potentially life-threatening illness with no established treatment. Cardiovascular risk factors (CRFs) exacerbate COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Objective: To determine the prevalence of CRF and clinical outcomes of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in a tertiary hospital in Somalia. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of patients aged 18 years or older with a real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalized at the De Martino Hospital in Mogadishu, Somalia, between March and July 2020. Results: We enrolled 230 participants; 159 (69.1%) males, median age was 56 (41-66) years. In-hospital mortality was 19.6% (n = 45); 77.8% in the intensive care unit (ICU) compared with 22.2%, in the general wards (p < 0.001). Age ⩾ 40 years [odds ratio (OR): 3.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-10.6, p = 0.020], chronic heart disease (OR: 9.3, 95% CI: 2.2-38.9, p = 0.002), and diabetes mellitus (OR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.6-6.2, p < 0.001) were associated with increased odds of mortality. Forty-three (18.7%) participants required ICU admission. Age ⩾ 40 years (OR: 7.5, 95% CI: 1.7-32.1, p = 0.007), diabetes mellitus (OR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.6-6.3, p < 0.001), and hypertension (OR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.2-5.2, p = 0.014) were associated with ICU admission. For every additional CRF, the odds of admission into the ICU increased threefold (OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.2-5.2, p < 0.001), while the odds of dying increased twofold (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2, p < 0.001). Conclusions: We report a very high prevalence of CRF among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Somalia. Mortality rates were unacceptably high, particularly among those with advanced age, underlying chronic heart disease, and diabetes.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia.

BACKGROUND: While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, less is known about the health effects in Somalia, where health systems are weak and vital registration is underdeveloped. METHODS: We used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify burial numbers from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data. Simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model were used to predict actual and counterfactual burial rates by cemetery and across Mogadishu during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality and to compute excess burials. We undertook a qualitative survey of key informants to determine the drivers of COVID-19 excess mortality. RESULTS: Burial rates increased during the pandemic, averaging 1.5-fold and peaking at a 2.2-fold increase on pre-pandemic levels. When scaled to plausible range of baseline crude death rates, the excess death toll between January and September 2020 was 3200-11 800. Compared with Barakaat Cemetery Committee's burial records, our estimates were lower. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates considerable underestimation of the health effects of COVID-19 in Banadir and an overburdened public health system struggling to deal with the increasing severity of the epidemic in 2020.

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020.

Background: In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic's death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteries in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction and other epidemiologic parameters of the early spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. Methods: We performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) up to August 2020. Results: Under the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu March-August 2020 were attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections, we arrived at median estimates of November-December 2019 for the date of introduction and low R 0 estimates (1.4-1.7) reflecting the slow and early rise and long plateau of excess deaths. The date of introduction, the amount of external seeding, the infection fatality rate (IFR) and the effectiveness of NPIs are correlated parameters and not separately identifiable in a narrow range from deaths data. Nevertheless, to obtain introduction dates no earlier than November 2019 a higher population-wide IFR (≥0.7%) had to be assumed than obtained by applying age-specific IFRs from high-income countries to Somalia's age structure. Conclusions: Model fitting of excess mortality data across a range of plausible values of the IFR and the amount of external seeding suggests an early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia in November-December 2019. Transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was estimated to be lower than in European settings. Alternatively, there was another, unidentified source of sustained excess mortality in Mogadishu from March to August 2020.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptability and Adherence to Preventive Measures in Somalia: Results of an Online Survey.

Most countries are currently gravitating towards vaccination as mainstay strategy to quell COVID-19 transmission. Between December 2020 and January 2021, we conducted a follow-up online survey in Somalia to monitor adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures, and COVID-19 vaccine acceptability and reasons for vaccine hesitancy. Adherence was measured via a composite adherence score based on four measures (physical distancing, face mask use, hand hygiene, and mouth covering when coughing/sneezing). We analyzed 4543 responses (mean age: 23.5 ± 6.4 years, 62.4% males). The mean adherence score during this survey was lower than the score during a similar survey in April 2020. A total of 76.8% of respondents were willing to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. Flu-like symptoms were more frequently reported in the current survey compared to previous surveys. Multiple logistic regression showed that participants who experienced flu-like symptoms, those in the healthcare sector, and those with higher adherence scores had higher odds for vaccine acceptability while being a female reduced the willingness to be vaccinated. In conclusion, our data suggest that the decreasing adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures may have caused increased flu-like symptoms over time. COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in Somalia is relatively high but could be improved by addressing factors that contribute to vaccine hesitancy.