Individual and area level factors associated with the breast cancer diagnostic-treatment interval in Queensland, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Delays to breast cancer treatment can lead to more aggressive and extensive treatments, increased expenses, increased psychological distress, and poorer survival. We explored the individual and area level factors associated with the interval between diagnosis and first treatment in a population-based cohort in Queensland, Australia. METHODS: Data from 3216 Queensland women aged 20 to 79, diagnosed with invasive breast cancer (ICD-O-3 C50) between March 2010 and June 2013 were analysed. Diagnostic dates were sourced from the Queensland Cancer Registry and treatment dates were collected via self-report. Diagnostics-treatment intervals were modelled using flexible parametric survival methods. RESULTS: The median interval between breast cancer diagnosis and first treatment was 15 days, with an interquartile range of 9-26 days. Longer diagnostic-treatment intervals were associated with a lack of private health coverage, lower pre-diagnostic income, first treatments other than breast conserving surgery, and residence outside a major city. The model explained a modest 13.7% of the variance in the diagnostic-treatment interval [Formula: see text]. Sauerbrei's D was 0.82, demonstrating low to moderate discrimination performance. CONCLUSION: Whilst this study identified several individual- and area-level factors associated with the time between breast cancer diagnosis and first treatment, much of the variation remained unexplained. Increased socioeconomic disadvantage appears to predict longer diagnostic-treatment intervals. Though some of the differences are small, many of the same factors have also been linked to screening and diagnostic delay. Given the potential for accumulation of delay at multiple stages along the diagnostic and treatment pathway, identifying and applying effective strategies address barriers to timely health care faced by socioeconomically disadvantaged women remains a priority.

Geographical and spatial disparities in the incidence and survival of rare cancers in Australia.

Rare cancers collectively account for around a quarter of cancer diagnoses and deaths. However, epidemiological studies are sparse. We describe spatial and geographical patterns in incidence and survival of rare cancers across Australia using a population-based cancer registry cohort of rare cancer cases diagnosed among Australians aged at least 15 years, 2007 to 2016. Rare cancers were defined using site- and histology-based categories from the European RARECARE study, as individual cancer types having crude annual incidence rates of less than 6/100 000. Incidence and survival patterns were modelled with generalised linear and Bayesian spatial Leroux models. Spatial heterogeneity was tested using the maximised excess events test. Rare cancers (n = 268 070) collectively comprised 22% of all invasive cancer diagnoses and accounted for 27% of all cancer-related deaths in Australia, 2007 to 2016 with an overall 5-year relative survival of around 53%. Males and those living in more remote or more disadvantaged areas had higher incidence but lower survival. There was substantial evidence for spatial variation in both incidence and survival for rare cancers between small geographical areas across Australia, with similar patterns so that those areas with higher incidence tended to have lower survival. Rare cancers are a substantial health burden in Australia. Our study has highlighted the need to better understand the higher burden of these cancers in rural and disadvantaged regions where the logistical challenges in their diagnosis, treatment and support are magnified.

Cancer statistics in China, 2015.

With increasing incidence and mortality, cancer is the leading cause of death in China and is a major public health problem. Because of China's massive population (1.37 billion), previous national incidence and mortality estimates have been limited to small samples of the population using data from the 1990s or based on a specific year. With high-quality data from an additional number of population-based registries now available through the National Central Cancer Registry of China, the authors analyzed data from 72 local, population-based cancer registries (2009-2011), representing 6.5% of the population, to estimate the number of new cases and cancer deaths for 2015. Data from 22 registries were used for trend analyses (2000-2011). The results indicated that an estimated 4292,000 new cancer cases and 2814,000 cancer deaths would occur in China in 2015, with lung cancer being the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer death. Stomach, esophageal, and liver cancers were also commonly diagnosed and were identified as leading causes of cancer death. Residents of rural areas had significantly higher age-standardized (Segi population) incidence and mortality rates for all cancers combined than urban residents (213.6 per 100,000 vs 191.5 per 100,000 for incidence; 149.0 per 100,000 vs 109.5 per 100,000 for mortality, respectively). For all cancers combined, the incidence rates were stable during 2000 through 2011 for males (+0.2% per year; P = .1), whereas they increased significantly (+2.2% per year; P < .05) among females. In contrast, the mortality rates since 2006 have decreased significantly for both males (-1.4% per year; P < .05) and females (-1.1% per year; P < .05). Many of the estimated cancer cases and deaths can be prevented through reducing the prevalence of risk factors, while increasing the effectiveness of clinical care delivery, particularly for those living in rural areas and in disadvantaged populations.

Long-term childhood cancer survival in Australia using period estimation.

Estimates of childhood cancer survival are usually reported at 5 years after diagnosis only. Using cases prevalent between 2014 and 2018 from the population-based Australian Childhood Cancer Registry, we used the period method to calculate relative survival up to 20 years post diagnosis by cancer type. Twenty-year relative survival for all childhood cancers combined (n = 14,353) was 83.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 82.6%-85.0%). Survival decreased only slightly after 10 years for most childhood cancers, except for some types of brain and liver tumours. These contemporary estimates of long-term survival provide valuable information to assist childhood cancer patients and their families in planning for the future.

Childhood cancer survival and avoided deaths in Australia, 1983-2016.

BACKGROUND: Large improvements in childhood cancer survival have been reported over recent decades. Data from cancer registries have the advantage of providing a 'whole of population' approach to gauge the success of cancer control efforts. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate recent survival estimates for children diagnosed with cancer Australia and to examine the extent of changes in survival over the last 35 years. For the first time, we also estimated the number of deaths among Australian children that were potentially avoided due to improvements in survival. METHODS: A retrospective, population-based cohort study design was used. Case information was extracted from the Australian Childhood Cancer Registry for 1983-2016, with follow-up to 31 December 2017. Eligible children were aged 0-14 with a basis of diagnosis other than autopsy or death certificate only. Five-year relative survival was calculated using the semi-complete cohort method for three diagnosis periods (1983-1994, 1995-2006 and 2007-2016), and changes in survival over time were assessed via flexible parametric models. Avoided deaths within 5 years for those diagnosed between 1995 and 2016 were estimated under the assumption that survival rates remained the same as for 1983-1994. RESULTS: Overall 5-year survival within the study cohort (n = 20,871) increased from 72.8% between 1983 and1994 to 86.1% between 2007 and 2016, equating to an adjusted excess mortality hazard ratio of 1.82 (95% confidence interval 1.67, 1.97). Most cancers showed improvements in survival; other gliomas, hepatoblastoma and osteosarcoma were exceptions. Among children diagnosed between 1995 and 2016, 38.7% of expected deaths within 5 years of diagnosis (n = 1537 of 3970) were avoided due to temporal improvements in survival. CONCLUSIONS: Survival for childhood cancer has continued to improve over recent years, thanks mainly to ongoing progress in treatment development combined with improved supportive care. Providing innovative measures of survival, such as avoided deaths, may assist with understanding outcome data produced by cancer registries.

Temporal changes in childhood cancer incidence and survival by stage at diagnosis in Australia, 2000-2017.

BACKGROUND: The Toronto Paediatric Cancer Stage Guidelines are a compendium of staging systems developed to facilitate collection of consistent and comparable data on stage at diagnosis for childhood cancers by cancer registries. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective, observational cohort study investigated changes in stage-specific incidence and survival for children diagnosed between 2000-2008 compared to 2009-2017 using the population-based Australian Childhood Cancer Registry. Information on mortality for each patient was available to 31st December 2020. Shifts in incidence by stage were evaluated using chi-square tests, and differences in stage-specific five-year observed survival for all causes of death over time were assessed using flexible parametric models. RESULTS: Stage was assigned according to the Toronto Guidelines for 96% (n = 7944) of the total study cohort (n = 8292). Changes in the distribution of incidence by stage between the two diagnosis periods were observed for retinoblastoma, with stage 0 increasing from 26% to 37% of cases (p = 0.02), and hepatoblastoma, with metastatic disease increasing from 22% to 39% of cases (p = 0.04). There were large gains in stage-specific survival over time for stage IV rhabdomyosarcoma (five-year adjusted mortality hazard ratio for 2009-2017 compared to 2000-2008 of 0.38, 95% CI 0.19-0.77; p = 0.01), stage M3 for medulloblastoma (HR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.21-0.79; p = 0.01) and metastatic neuroblastoma excluding stage MS (HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.44-0.84; p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: These results indicate that improvements in childhood cancer survival in Australia are most likely due to refined management rather than changes in stage at diagnosis, particularly for metastatic solid tumours. Wide international uptake of the Toronto Guidelines will allow comprehensive evaluation of differences in survival between countries.

Treatment intervals and survival for women diagnosed with early breast cancer in Queensland: the Breast Cancer Outcomes Study, a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess associations between breast cancer-specific survival and timeliness of treatment, based on 2020 Australian guidelines for the treatment of early breast cancer. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study; analysis of linked Queensland Cancer Register, patient medical record, and National Death Index data, supplemented by telephone interviews. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 20-79 years diagnosed with invasive breast cancer during 1 March 2010 - 30 June 2013, followed to 31 December 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Breast cancer-specific survival for women who received or did not receive treatment within the recommended timeframe, overall and for six treatment intervals; optimal cut-points for each treatment interval; characteristics of women for whom treatment was not provided within the recommended timeframe. RESULTS: Of 5426 eligible women, 4762 could be invited for interviews; complete data were available for 3044 women (56% of eligible women, 65% of invited women). Incomplete compliance with guideline interval recommendations was identified for 1375 women (45%); their risk of death from breast cancer during the follow-up period was greater than for those for whom guideline compliance was complete (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.96). Risk of death was greater for women for whom the diagnosis to surgery interval exceeded 29 days (aHR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.19-2.59), the surgery to chemotherapy interval exceeded 36 days (aHR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.13-2.36), or the chemotherapy to radiotherapy interval exceeded 31 days (aHR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.19-2.80). Treatment intervals longer than recommended were more frequent for women for whom breast cancer was detected by public facility screening (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; 95% CI, 1.22-2.04) or by symptoms (aOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.09-1.79) than when cancer had been detected in private facilities, and for women without private health insurance (aOR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.66-2.32) or living outside major cities (aOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18-1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer-specific survival was poorer for women for whom the diagnosis to surgery, surgery to chemotherapy, or chemotherapy to radiotherapy intervals exceeded guideline-recommended limits. Our findings support 2020 Australian guideline recommendations regarding timely care.

Mapping the prevalence of cancer risk factors at the small area level in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a significant health issue globally and it is well known that cancer risk varies geographically. However in many countries there are no small area-level data on cancer risk factors with high resolution and complete reach, which hinders the development of targeted prevention strategies. METHODS: Using Australia as a case study, the 2017-2018 National Health Survey was used to generate prevalence estimates for 2221 small areas across Australia for eight cancer risk factor measures covering smoking, alcohol, physical activity, diet and weight. Utilising a recently developed Bayesian two-stage small area estimation methodology, the model incorporated survey-only covariates, spatial smoothing and hierarchical modelling techniques, along with a vast array of small area-level auxiliary data, including census, remoteness, and socioeconomic data. The models borrowed strength from previously published cancer risk estimates provided by the Social Health Atlases of Australia. Estimates were internally and externally validated. RESULTS: We illustrated that in 2017-2018 health behaviours across Australia exhibited more spatial disparities than previously realised by improving the reach and resolution of formerly published cancer risk factors. The derived estimates revealed higher prevalence of unhealthy behaviours in more remote areas, and areas of lower socioeconomic status; a trend that aligned well with previous work. CONCLUSIONS: Our study addresses the gaps in small area level cancer risk factor estimates in Australia. The new estimates provide improved spatial resolution and reach and will enable more targeted cancer prevention strategies at the small area level. Furthermore, by including the results in the next release of the Australian Cancer Atlas, which currently provides small area level estimates of cancer incidence and relative survival, this work will help to provide a more comprehensive picture of cancer in Australia by supporting policy makers, researchers, and the general public in understanding the spatial distribution of cancer risk factors. The methodology applied in this work is generalisable to other small area estimation applications and has been shown to perform well when the survey data are sparse.

Quantifying the absolute number of cancer deaths that would be avoided if cancers were diagnosed prior to progressing to distant metastasis, New South Wales, Australia 1985-2014.

Our study measures the impact of diagnosing cancers early before they metastasise on reducing the burden of cancer death. A cohort of 716 501 people aged 15 to 89 years diagnosed with a solid cancer in New South Wales, Australia, during 1985 to 2014 were followed-up to December 2015. Crude probabilities of cancer death by stage at diagnosis were calculated for all solid cancers combined and five individual cancers using flexible parametric relative survival models. These probabilities were used to estimate the number of avoided cancer deaths within 10 years of diagnosis in three 10-year diagnostic periods if all cases with known distant stage were instead diagnosed at an earlier stage. Cancers are known to be diagnosed at distant stage composed ~16% of all solid cancers diagnosed during 2005 to 2014. Assuming all these cases were instead diagnosed at regional stage, an annual average of 2064 cancer deaths would have been potentially avoided within 10 years of diagnosis. This equated to ~21% of modelled observed deaths. Alternatively, if half of all known distant cases diagnosed during 2005 to 2014 were diagnosed as regional and half as localised, the average number of deaths avoided per year would increase to 2677 (~28%). Estimates varied by diagnostic period, sex and cancer type, reflecting both the different stage distributions for the cancer types, and the respective survival differences between cancer stages. While prevention is the most effective pillar of cancer control, these findings quantify the potential benefits of diagnosing all cancer types when they are less advanced to reduce the burden of cancer mortality.

A prognostic survival model for women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in Queensland, Australia.

PURPOSE: Prognostic models can help inform patients on the future course of their cancer and assist the decision making of clinicians and patients in respect to management and treatment of the cancer. In contrast to previous studies considering survival following treatment, this study aimed to develop a prognostic model to quantify breast cancer-specific survival at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: A large (n = 3323), population-based prospective cohort of women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in Queensland, Australia between 2010 and 2013, and followed up to December 2018. Data were collected through a validated semi-structured telephone interview and a self-administered questionnaire, along with data linkage to the Queensland Cancer Register and additional extraction from medical records. Flexible parametric survival models, with multiple imputation to deal with missing data, were used. RESULTS: Key factors identified as being predictive of poorer survival included more advanced stage at diagnosis, higher tumour grade, "triple negative" breast cancers, and being symptom-detected rather than screen detected. The Harrell's C-statistic for the final predictive model was 0.84 (95% CI 0.82, 0.87), while the area under the ROC curve for 5-year mortality was 0.87. The final model explained about 36% of the variation in survival, with stage at diagnosis alone explaining 26% of the variation. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to confirming the prognostic importance of stage, grade and clinical subtype, these results highlighted the independent survival benefit of breast cancers diagnosed through screening, although lead and length time bias should be considered. Understanding what additional factors contribute to the substantial unexplained variation in survival outcomes remains an important objective.

Supportive care needs and psychosocial outcomes of rural versus urban women with breast cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To identify whether supportive care needs vary according to remoteness and area-level socio-economic status and to identify the combinations of socio-demographic, area-level and health factors that are associated with poorer quality of life, psychological distress and severity of unmet supportive care needs. METHODS: Cross sectional data was collected from women with a breast cancer diagnosis (n = 2635) in Queensland, Australia, through a telephone survey including socio-demographic, health, psychosocial and supportive care needs measures. Hierarchical regression and cluster analyses were applied to assess the predictors of unmet need and psychosocial outcomes and to identify socio-demographic and health status profiles of women, comparing their level of unmet needs and psychosocial outcomes. RESULTS: Women living in outer regional areas reported the highest severity of unmet need in the patient care domain. Greater unmet need for health systems and information and patient care was also evident for those in moderately and most disadvantaged areas. Three clusters were identified reflecting (1) older women with poorer health and lower education (19%); (2) younger educated women with better health and private insurance (61%); and (3) physically active women with localised cancer who had completed treatment (20%). Poorer outcomes were evident in the first two of these clusters. CONCLUSIONS: This better understanding of the combinations of characteristics associated with poorer psychosocial outcomes and higher unmet need can be used to identify women with higher supportive care needs early and to target interventions.

Changes in cancer incidence and survival among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children in Australia, 1997-2016.

BACKGROUND: This study reports cancer incidence and survival among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and other Australian children, and assesses changes over time. PROCEDURE: Data were from the population-based Australian Childhood Cancer Registry. The study comprised children aged under 15 diagnosed between 1997 and 2016 and with mortality follow-up until 31 December 2017. Incidence trends were analysed using JoinPoint regression. Five-year cancer-specific survival was calculated using the semi-complete approach with survival comparisons made using multivariable flexible parametric models. RESULTS: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children accounted for 506 of 13,299 eligible cases (3.8%). Incidence rates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children across the study period increased by 2.3% annually (95% confidence interval [CI]: +0.6% to +4.0%) and for other Australian children increased by 0.6% annually (95% CI: +0.3% to +0.9%; p = .05). Nonetheless, cancer incidence was consistently lower for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62-0.85; p < .01) between 2012 and 2016. Survival for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children with solid tumours was 70.6% (95% CI: 62.5%-77.3%) and for other Australian children was 83.5% (95% CI: 82.3%-84.7%; p < .01), with indications of this difference diminishing in recent years. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in identification, particularly in urban areas, most likely accounts for the greater increase in cancer incidence rates among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children. Examination of data on stage at diagnosis and treatment may provide important insights into survival for children with solid tumours.

Risk of extracolonic second primary cancers following a primary colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study is to assess the global risk of extracolonic secondary primary cancers (SPCs) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Studies of SPC in patients with CRC were included if they reported the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) for extracolonic SPCs in patients with CRC compared with the general population. Pooled summary estimates were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: A total of 7,716,750 patients with CRC from 13 retrospective cohort studies that reported extracolonic SPC incidence were included. The overall risk of several SPCs was significantly higher in patients with CRC compared with the general population, including cancers of the urinary bladder (pooled SIR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.33; p = 0.003), female genital tract (1.88, 1.07-3.31; p = 0.03), kidney (1.50, 1.19-1.89; p = 0.0007), thorax (lung, bronchus and mediastinum) (1.16, 1.01-1.32; p = 0.03), small intestine (4.26, 2.58-7.01; p < 0.0001), stomach (1.22, 1.07-1.39; p = 0.003), and thyroid (1.40, 1.28-1.53; p < 0.0001), as well as melanoma (1.28, 1.01-1.62; p = 0.04). There was also a decreased risk of developing cancer of the gall bladder (0.75, 0.60-0.94; p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Patients with CRC had a significantly increased risk of extracolonic SPCs compared with the general population. These findings highlight the need to develop research strategies for the management of second primary cancer in patients with CRC.

Survival disparities among recently diagnosed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cancer patients in Australia remain.

PURPOSE: Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander diagnosed with cancer are known to experience poorer survival, with these survival disparities mainly restricted to the first 2 years after diagnosis. With improved accuracy and completeness of identifying Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples over the whole study period, our goal was to examine whether the survival disparity among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples diagnosed with cancer in Queensland has changed over time. METHODS: Population-based data from the Queensland Cancer Register between 1998 and 2017 for Queenslanders aged 15 years and over at diagnosis (n = 377,963; 1.6% Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander) were used to determine whether this disparity has reduced over time. Flexible parametric survival models incorporating time-varying coefficients were used to examine the association between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status and cancer-specific survival within 5 years of diagnosis. RESULTS: The adjusted 5-year cancer-specific survival rate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people diagnosed with cancer increased from 60.5% (95% CI 59.2-61.9%) in 1998-2007 to 65.5% (95% CI 64.3-66.6%) in 2008-2017, with the corresponding estimates for other Queenslanders being 66.6% (95% CI 66.4-66.8%) and 70.1% (95% CI 69.9-70.3%). The survival disparity was significant only for the first 3 years since diagnosis for 1998-2007; however, it was significantly (p ≤ 0.02) elevated for all five time intervals for 2008-2017, with similar average hazard ratios (95% CIs) over the 5-year interval after diagnosis of 1.45 (1.36-1.55) for 1998-2007 and 1.42 (1.34-1.50) for 2008-2017. CONCLUSION: Although survival has increased over time, the lack of improvement in the disparity in cancer survival experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cancer patients highlights the urgent need to better understand the multifaceted and completed factors that underlie this gap to guide targeted, evidence-based interventions and support their implementation across the health sector.

Tobacco smoking and risk of thyroid cancer according to BRAFV600E mutational subtypes.

OBJECTIVE: Smoking has been associated with a reduced risk of thyroid cancer, but whether the association varies between higher- and lower-risk cancers remains unclear. We aimed to assess the association between smoking and risk of thyroid cancer overall as well as by tumour BRAF mutational status as a marker of potentially higher-risk cancer. DESIGN AND PATIENTS: We recruited 1013 people diagnosed with thyroid cancer and 1057 population controls frequency-matched on age and sex. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association overall and in analyses stratified by tumour characteristics. We used sensitivity analysis to assess the potential for selection bias. RESULTS: We found little evidence of an association with current smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-1.26; current vs. never smoking), but a higher number of pack-years of smoking was associated with a lower risk of thyroid cancer (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.57-0.99; ≥20 pack-years vs. never). However, after correcting for potential selection bias, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between current smoking and risk of thyroid cancer (bias-corrected OR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.51-0.83). Those with BRAF-positive cancers were less likely to be current smokers than those with BRAF-negative cancers (prevalence ratio: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.62-0.99). CONCLUSION: We found smoking was inversely related to thyroid cancer risk and, in particular, current smoking was associated with a reduced risk of potentially more aggressive BRAF-positive than the likely more indolent BRAF-negative papillary thyroid cancers.

Colorectal cancer incidence in Australia before and after mandatory fortification of bread flour with folic acid.

OBJECTIVE: Mandatory fortification of bread flour with folic acid has helped to reduce the incidence of neural tube defects in several countries. However, it has been suggested that folic acid may have potential adenoma-promoting effects, and reports from some countries have suggested that mandatory folic acid food fortification programmes have increased the incidence of colorectal cancer. The objective of this study was to evaluate colorectal cancer incidence patterns before and after introduction of mandatory folic acid fortification of bread flour in Australia in 2009. DESIGN: Data from the Australian Cancer Database were used to plot age-standardised incidence of colorectal cancer. We calculated age-adjusted rate ratios with 95 % CIs. SETTING: Australia. PARTICIPANTS: We used population-level aggregate data obtained from cancer registries. RESULTS: Age-standardised colorectal cancer incidence generally decreased between 1999 and 2016. Although there was a slight increase in rates in 2010 compared with 2009 (62·8 v. 61·6 cases per 100 000, age-adjusted rate ratio 1·02 (95 % CI 0·99, 1·04), joinpoint regression indicated decreases of -0·4 % (95 % CI -0·7, 0·0) per year from 1999 to 2010 and -2·2 % (95 % CI -3·1, -1·3) per year from 2010 to 2016. CONCLUSIONS: While causation cannot be assessed from these population-level data, our observations indicate that there is no evidence that introduction of mandatory folic acid fortification of bread flour has influenced colorectal cancer incidence in Australia.

Long-term deaths from melanoma according to tumor thickness at diagnosis.

There is little long-term follow-up information about how the number of melanoma deaths and case fatality vary over time according to the measured thickness of melanoma at diagnosis. This population-based longitudinal cohort study examines patterns and trends in case fatality among 44,531 people in Queensland (Australia) diagnosed with a single invasive melanoma (International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision [ICD-O-3], C44, Morphology 872-879) between 1987 and 2011, including 11,883 diagnosed between 1987 and 1996, with up to 20 years follow-up (to December 2016). The 20-year case fatality increased by thickness, with the percentage of melanoma deaths within 20 years of diagnosis being up to 4.8% for melanomas with measured thickness <0.80 mm, 10.6% for tumors 0.8 to <1.0 mm and generally more than 30% for melanomas measuring 3 mm and more. For melanomas <1.0 mm, most deaths occurred between 5 and 20 years after diagnosis, whereas for thicker melanomas the reverse was true with most deaths occurring within the first 5 years. Five-year case fatality decreased over successive calendar time periods for melanomas <1.0 mm, but not for melanomas ≥1.0 mm. These findings demonstrate that the time course for fatal melanomas varies markedly according to tumor thickness at diagnosis. Improved understanding of the patient factors and characteristics of melanomas, in addition to tumor thickness, which increase the likelihood of progression, is needed to guide clinical diagnosis, communication with patients and ongoing surveillance pathways of patients with potentially fatal lesions.

Factors associated with being diagnosed with high severity of breast cancer: a population-based study in Queensland, Australia.

PURPOSE: This study explores factors that are associated with the severity of breast cancer (BC) at diagnosis. METHODS: Interviews were conducted among women (n = 3326) aged 20-79 diagnosed with BC between 2011 and 2013 in Queensland, Australia. High-severity cancers were defined as either Stage II-IV, Grade 3, or having negative hormone receptors at diagnosis. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of high severity BC for variables relating to screening, lifestyle, reproductive habits, family history, socioeconomic status, and area disadvantage. RESULTS: Symptom-detected women had greater odds (OR 3.38, 2.86-4.00) of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than screen-detected women. Women who did not have regular mammograms had greater odds (OR 1.78, 1.40-2.28) of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those who had mammograms biennially. This trend was significant in both screen-detected and symptom-detected women. Screen-detected women who were non-smokers (OR 1.77, 1.16-2.71), postmenopausal (OR 2.01, 1.42-2.84), or employed (OR 1.46, 1.15-1.85) had greater odds of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those who were current smokers, premenopausal, or unemployed. Symptom-detected women being overweight (OR 1.67, 1.31-2.14), postmenopausal (OR 2.01, 1.43-2.82), had hormone replacement therapy (HRT) < 2 years (OR 1.60, 1.02-2.51) had greater odds of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those of healthy weight, premenopausal, had HRT > 10 years. CONCLUSION: Screen-detected women and women who had mammograms biennially had lower odds of being diagnosed with high-severity breast cancer, which highlighted the benefit of regular breast cancer screening. Women in subgroups who are more likely to have more severe cancers should be particularly encouraged to participate in regular mammography screening.

Global trends in incidence rates of childhood liver cancers: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Childhood liver cancers are relatively rare, hence inferences on incidence trends over time are limited by lack of precision in most studies. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of published contemporary trends on childhood liver cancer incidence rates worldwide. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: English-language peer-reviewed articles published from 1 January 2008 to 1 December 2019 that presented quantitative estimates of incidence trends for childhood liver cancer and diagnostic subgroups. Review was conducted per PRISMA guidelines. Two authors independently extracted data and critically assessed studies. SYNTHESIS: Random effects meta-analysis models were used to estimate pooled incidence trends by diagnostic subgroups. Heterogeneity was measured using the Q and I2 statistics and publication bias evaluated using Egger's test. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were included, all based on population-based cancer registries. Trends were reported on average for 18 years. Overall pooled estimates of the annual percentage change (APC) were 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5, 2.3) for childhood liver cancers, 2.8 (95% CI 1.8, 3.8) for hepatoblastoma and -3.0 (95% CI -11.0, 4.9) for hepatocellular carcinoma. Sub-group analysis by region indicated increasing trends for childhood liver cancers in North America/Europe/Australia (APC 1.7, 95% CI 0.7, 2.8) whereas corresponding trends were stable in Asia (APC 1.4, 95%CI -0.3, 2.7). Publication bias was not detected for any of these analyses. The I2 statistic indicated that the heterogeneity among included studies was low for combined liver cancers, moderate for hepatoblastoma and high for hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence is increasing for childhood liver cancers and the most commonly diagnosed subgroup hepatoblastoma. Lack of knowledge of the etiology of childhood liver cancers limited the ability to understand the reasons for observed incidence trends. This review highlighted the need for ongoing monitoring of incidence trends and etiological studies.

Survival in patients with multiple primary melanomas: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The literature surrounding survival of patients with multiple primary melanomas (MPM) yields variable and opposing findings, constrained by statistical challenges. OBJECTIVES: To critically examine the available literature regarding survival of patients with MPM compared with a single primary melanoma and detail statistical methods used. METHODS: Electronic searches were performed of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus, with cross-checking of references, for the period January 1956 to June 2019. Studies published in English examining survival in patients with multiple melanomas were included. Case studies and small case series were excluded. RESULTS: There were 14 studies eligible for inclusion. Conclusions on survival varied markedly depending on the statistical method used. Four studies that accounted for survival bias by partitioning the survival time were included in the quantitative review, with 3 of these reporting a survival disadvantage for MPM, whereas the fourth showed no difference in survival. The pooled hazard ratio was 1.39 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.81) but with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 96.8%, Phet < .001). LIMITATIONS: Studies showed significant heterogeneity in methodology. CONCLUSION: When data were analyzed with robust statistical methods, patients with MPM had a survival disadvantage compared with patients with a single primary melanoma.