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INTRODUCTION: Frailty, a measure of physiological aging and reserve, has been validated as a prognostic indicator of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. However, large-scale analyses of the independent association of frailty with clinical and financial outcomes following liver transplantation (LT) are lacking. METHODS: Adults (≥18 years) undergoing LT were identified in the 2016-2020 National Readmissions Database. Frailty was defined using the binary Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups frailty indicator. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were developed to evaluate the independent association of frailty with in-hospital mortality, perioperative complications, and costs. RESULTS: Of an estimated 34 442 patients undergoing LT, 8265 (24%) were frail. After adjustment, frailty was associated with greater odds of mortality (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.80; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.49-1.18), postoperative length of stay (ß + 11 days; 95% CI: +10, +12), and hospitalization costs (+$86 880; 95% CI: +75 660, +98 100), as well as a two-fold increase in relative risk of nonhome discharge (AOR 2.17, 95% CI: 1.90-2.49). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, complications, and resource utilization among LT recipients. As the proportion of frail LT patients continues to rise, our findings underscore the need for novel risk-stratification and individualized care protocols for such vulnerable patients.
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Fragilidade , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Transplante de Fígado , Complicações Pós-Operatórias , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Transplante de Fígado/economia , Transplante de Fígado/mortalidade , Fragilidade/economia , Fragilidade/complicações , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/economia , Prognóstico , Seguimentos , Fatores de Risco , Idoso , Adulto , Taxa de Sobrevida , Tempo de Internação/economia , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To develop a novel machine learning (ML) model to predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Accurate prognostication of CR-POPF may allow for risk stratification and adaptive treatment strategies for potential PD candidates. However, antecedent models, such as the modified Fistula Risk Score (mFRS), are limited by poor discrimination and calibration. METHODS: All records entailing PD within the 2014-2018 ACS NSQIP were identified. Additionally, patients undergoing PD at our institution between 2013 and 2021 were queried from our local data repository. An eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was developed to estimate the risk of CR-POPF using data from the ACS NSQIP and evaluated using institutional data. Model discrimination was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and precision recall curve (AUPRC). RESULTS: Overall, 12,281 and 445 patients undergoing PD were identified within the 2014-2018 ACS NSQIP and our institutional registry, respectively. Application of the XGBoost and mFRS scores to the internal validation dataset revealed that the former model had significantly greater AUROC (0.72 vs. 0.68, P<0.001) and AUPRC (0.22 vs. 0.18, P<0.001). Within the external validation dataset, the XGBoost model remained superior to the mFRS with an AUROC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.84) versus 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.80, P<0.001). In addition, AUPRC was higher for the XGBoost model, compared to the mFRS. CONCLUSIONS: Our novel ML model consistently outperformed the previously validated mFRS within internal and external validation cohorts, thereby demonstrating its generalizability and utility for enhancing prediction of CR-POPF.
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BACKGROUND: Fat embolism is a life-threatening complication often occurring in patients with traumatic injuries. However, temporal trends and perioperative outcomes of fat embolism remain understudied. Using a nationally representative cohort, we aimed to characterize temporal trends of fat embolism and its associated resource utilization in operatively managed trauma patients. METHODS: All patients (≥18 years) undergoing any major operations after traumatic injuries were tabulated using the 2005 to 2020 National Inpatient Sample. Patients were stratified into those with fat embolism and those without. Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were developed to assess the association between fat embolism and outcomes of interest. RESULTS: Of an estimated 10,600,000 hospitalizations, 7,479 (0.07%) patients had fat embolism. Compared to the non-fat embolism cohort, the fat embolism cohort was younger (55 [26-79] vs 69 [49-82] years, standard mean difference = 0.46) and more likely to receive treatment at a high-volume trauma center (42.9 vs 33.7%, standard mean difference = 0.19). Over the study period, there was an increase in annual mortality and hospitalization costs among the fat embolism group (nptrend <0.001). After risk adjustment, fat embolism was associated with greater odds of mortality (adjusted odds ratio: 2.65, 95% confidence interval: 2.24-3.14) compared to others. Additionally, fat embolism was associated with increased odds of cerebrovascular, infectious, and renal complications. CONCLUSION: Among all operatively managed trauma patients, those who developed fat embolism had increased mortality, rates of complications, length of stay, and costs. Optimization of early and accurate identification of fat embolism is warranted to mitigate complications and improve resource allocation among trauma patients.
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Embolia Gordurosa , Complicações Pós-Operatórias , Ferimentos e Lesões , Humanos , Embolia Gordurosa/etiologia , Embolia Gordurosa/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Adulto , Ferimentos e Lesões/complicações , Ferimentos e Lesões/cirurgia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Cirurgia de Cuidados CríticosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of noncardiac surgery (NCS) following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) for aortic stenosis has not been elucidated by current national guidelines. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the time interval between TAVR and NCS (Δt) on the perioperative risk of major adverse events (MAEs). METHODS: All adult admissions for isolated TAVR for aortic stenosis were identified in the 2016 to 2020 Nationwide Readmissions Database. Patients who received NCS on subsequent admission were included for analysis and grouped by Δt as follows: ≤30, 31 to 60, 61 to 90, and >90 days. Multivariable regression models were constructed to examine the association of Δt with ensuing outcomes. RESULTS: Of 3,098 patients (median age = 79 years, 41.6% female), 19.1% underwent NCS at ≤30 days, 22.9% at 31 to 60 days, 16.7% at 61 to 90 days, and 41.3% at >90 days. After adjustment, the odds of MAEs were similar for operations performed at ≤30 days (adjusted OR [AOR]: 1.05; 95% CI: 0.74-1.50), 31 to 60 days (AOR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.71-1.31), and 61 to 90 days (AOR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.67-1.34), with those at >90 days as reference. When examining the average marginal effect of the interval to surgery, risk-adjusted MAE rates were statistically similar across Δt groups for elective status and NCS risk category combinations. CONCLUSIONS: NCS within 30, 31 to 60, or 61 to 90 days after TAVR was not associated with increased odds of MAEs compared with operations after 90 days irrespective of NCS risk category or elective status. Our findings suggest that the interval between NCS and TAVR may not be an accurate predictor of MAE risk in this population.
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Estenose da Valva Aórtica , Bases de Dados Factuais , Complicações Pós-Operatórias , Tempo para o Tratamento , Substituição da Valva Aórtica Transcateter , Humanos , Substituição da Valva Aórtica Transcateter/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagem , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/fisiopatologia , Fatores de Tempo , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Medição de Risco , Resultado do Tratamento , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Readmissão do Paciente , Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Valva Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagem , Valva Aórtica/fisiopatologia , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Operatórios/efeitos adversosRESUMO
Background: Failure to rescue (FTR) is increasingly recognized as a quality metric but remains understudied in emergency general surgery (EGS). We sought to identify patient and operative factors associated with FTR to better inform standardized metrics to mitigate this potentially preventable event. Methods: All adult (≥18â¯years) non-elective hospitalizations for large bowel resection, small bowel resection, repair of perforated ulcer, laparotomy and lysis of adhesions were identified in the 2016-2020 National Readmissions Database. Patients undergoing trauma-related operations or procedures ≤2â¯days of admission were excluded. FTR was defined as in-hospital death following acute kidney injury requiring dialysis (AKI), myocardial infarction, pneumonia, respiratory failure, sepsis, stroke, or thromboembolism. Multilevel mixed-effect models were developed to assess factors linked with FTR. Results: Among 826,548 EGS operations satisfying inclusion criteria, 298,062 (36.1â¯%) developed at least one MAE. Of those experiencing MAE, 43,477 (14.6â¯%) ultimately did not survive to discharge (FTR). Following adjustment for fixed hospital level effects, only 3.5â¯% of the variance in FTR was attributable to center-level differences. Relative to private insurance and the highest income quartile, Medicaid insurance (AOR 1.33; 95%CI, 1.23-1.43) and the lowest income quartile (AOR 1.22; 95%CI, 1.17-1.29) were linked with increased odds of FTR.A subset analysis stratified complication-specific rates of FTR by insurance status. Relative to private insurance, Medicaid coverage and uninsured status were linked with greater odds of FTR following perioperative sepsis, pneumonia, and AKI. Conclusion: Our findings underscore the need for increased screening and vigilance following perioperative complications to mitigate disparities in patient outcomes following high-risk EGS.
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BACKGROUND: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has emerged as a life-sustaining measure for individuals with end-stage cardiopulmonary derangements. An estimated one-third of patients must be transferred to a specialized center to receive this intervention. Therefore, the present study sought to characterize the impact of interhospital transfer (IHT) status on outcomes following ECMO. METHODS: The 2016-2020 National Inpatient Sample was queried to identify all adult (≥18 years) hospitalizations for ECMO. Patients were stratified based on transfer status from another acute care hospital. Multivariable regression models were developed to assess the association between transfer status and outcomes of interest. Patient and operative factors associated with IHT were identified using regression. RESULTS: Of an estimated 61,180 hospitalizations entailing ECMO, 21,410 (35.0%) were transfers. Annual transfer volume doubled over the study period, from 2915 to 5945 (nptrend < .001). The predicted morality risk of non-transfers decreased between 2016 and 2020 but remained similar in transferred patients. Following adjustment, transfer was associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality, complications, duration of stay, and hospitalization costs. Patients experiencing transfer were less likely to be of black race and private insurance status. CONCLUSION: Despite increasing transfer volume and utilization of ECMO, IHT was associated with significant mortality and hospital complication risks. Further work to reduce adverse outcomes, resource burden, and socioeconomic differences within IHT may improve accessibility to this life-saving modality.
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Background: Alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) presents with a complex spectrum of clinical manifestations that complicate postoperative management. In trauma setting, subjective screening for AWS remains challenging due to the criticality of injury in these patients. We thus identified several patient characteristics and perioperative outcomes associated AWS development. Methods: The 2016-2020 National Inpatient Sample was queried to identify all non-elective adult (≥18 years) hospitalizations for blunt or penetrating trauma undergoing operative management with a diagnosis of AWS. Patients with traumatic brain injury or with a hospital duration of stay <2 days were excluded. Outcomes of interest included in-hospital mortality, perioperative complications, hospitalization costs, length of stay (LOS) and non-home discharge. Results: Of an estimated 2,965,079 operative trauma hospitalizations included for analysis, 36,415 (1.23 %) developed AWS following admission. The AWS cohort demonstrated increased odds of mortality (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] 1.46, 95 % Confidence Interval [95 % CI] 1.23-1.73), along with infectious (AOR 1.73, 95 % CI 1.58-1.88), cardiac (AOR 1.24, 95 % CI 1.06-1.46), and respiratory (AOR 1.96, 95 % CI 1.81-2.11) complications. AWS was associated with prolonged LOS, (ß: 3.3 days, 95 % CI: 3.0 to 3.5), greater cost (ß: +$8900, 95 % CI $7900-9800) and incremental odds of nonhome discharge (AOR 1.43, 95 % CI 1.34-1.53). Furthermore, male sex, Medicaid insurance status, head injury and thoracic operation were linked with greater odds of development of AWS. Conclusion: In the present study, AWS development was associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality, perioperative complications, and resource burden. The identification of patient and operative characteristics linked with AWS may improve screening protocols in trauma care.
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INTRODUCTION: Literature regarding the impact of esophagectomy approach on hospitalizations costs and short-term outcomes is limited. Moreover, few have examined how institutional MIS experience affects costs. We thus examined utilization trends, costs, and short-term outcomes of open and minimally invasive (MIS) esophagectomy as well as assessing the relationship between institutional MIS volume and hospitalization costs. METHODS: All adults undergoing elective esophagectomy were identified from the 2016-2020 Nationwide Readmissions Database. Multiple regression models were used to assess approach with costs, in-hospital mortality, and major complications. Additionally, annual hospital MIS esophagectomy volume was modeled as a restricted cubic spline against costs. Institutions performing > 16 cases/year corresponding with the inflection point were categorized as high-volume hospitals (HVH). We subsequently examined the association of HVH status with costs, in-hospital mortality, and major complications in patients undergoing minimally invasive esophagectomy. RESULTS: Of an estimated 29,116 patients meeting inclusion, 10,876 (37.4%) underwent MIS esophagectomy. MIS approaches were associated with $10,600 in increased incremental costs (95% CI 8,800-12,500), but lower odds of in-hospital mortality (AOR 0.76; 95% CI 0.61-0.96) or major complications (AOR 0.68; 95% CI 0.60, 0.77). Moreover, HVH status was associated with decreased adjusted costs, as well as lower odds of postoperative complications for patients undergoing MIS operations. CONCLUSION: In this nationwide study, MIS esophagectomy was associated with increased hospitalization costs, but improved short-term outcomes. In MIS operations, cost differences were mitigated by volume, as HVH status was linked with decreased costs in the setting of decreased odds of complications. Centralization of care to HVH centers should be considered as MIS approaches are increasingly utilized.
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Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Eletivos , Esofagectomia , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitais com Alto Volume de Atendimentos , Esofagectomia/economia , Esofagectomia/mortalidade , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Hospitais com Alto Volume de Atendimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Eletivos/economia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/economia , Custos Hospitalares , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Minimamente Invasivos/economia , Resultado do Tratamento , Hospitais com Baixo Volume de Atendimentos/economiaRESUMO
Background: Despite increasing utilization and survival benefit over the last decade, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) remains resource-intensive with significant complications and rehospitalization risk. We thus utilized machine learning (ML) to develop prediction models for 90-day nonelective readmission following ECMO. Methods: All adult patients receiving ECMO who survived index hospitalization were tabulated from the 2016-2020 Nationwide Readmissions Database. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models were developed to identify features associated with readmission following ECMO. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), mean Average Precision (mAP), and the Brier score were calculated to estimate model performance relative to logistic regression (LR). Shapley Additive Explanation summary (SHAP) plots evaluated the relative impact of each factor on the model. An additional sensitivity analysis solely included patient comorbidities and indication for ECMO as potential model covariates. Results: Of â¼22,947 patients, 4495 (19.6 %) were readmitted nonelectively within 90 days. The XGBoost model exhibited superior discrimination (AUROC 0.64 vs 0.49), classification accuracy (mAP 0.30 vs 0.20) and calibration (Brier score 0.154 vs 0.165, all P < 0.001) in predicting readmission compared to LR. SHAP plots identified duration of index hospitalization, undergoing heart/lung transplantation, and Medicare insurance to be associated with increased odds of readmission. Upon sub-analysis, XGBoost demonstrated superior disclination compared to LR (AUROC 0.61 vs 0.60, P < 0.05). Chronic liver disease and frailty were linked with increased odds of nonelective readmission. Conclusions: ML outperformed LR in predicting readmission following ECMO. Future work is needed to identify other factors linked with readmission and further optimize post-ECMO care among this cohort.
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BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated a positive volume-outcome relationship in emergency general surgery. Some have advocated for the sub-specialization of emergency general surgery independent from trauma. We hypothesized inferior clinical outcomes of emergency general surgery with increasing center-level operative trauma volume, potentially attributable to overall hospital quality. METHODS: Adults (≥18 years) undergoing complex emergency general surgery operations (large and small bowel resection, repair of perforated peptic ulcer, lysis of adhesions, laparotomy) were identified in the 2016 to 2020 Nationwide Readmissions Database. Multivariable risk-adjusted models were developed to evaluate the association of treatment at a high-volume trauma center (reference: low-volume trauma center) with clinical and financial outcomes after emergency general surgery. To evaluate hospital quality, mortality among adult hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction was assessed by hospital trauma volume. RESULTS: Of an estimated 785,793 patients undergoing a complex emergency general surgery operation, 223,116 (28.4%) were treated at a high-volume trauma center. Treatment at a high-volume trauma center was linked to 1.19 odds of in-hospital mortality (95% confidence interval 1.12-1.27). Although emergency general surgery volume was associated with decreasing predicted risk of mortality, increasing trauma volume was linked to an incremental rise in the odds of mortality after emergency general surgery. Secondary analysis revealed increased mortality for admissions for acute myocardial infarction with greater trauma volume. CONCLUSION: We note increased mortality for emergency general surgery and acute myocardial infarction in patients receiving treatment at high-volume trauma centers, signifying underlying structural factors to broadly affect quality. Thus, decoupling trauma and emergency general surgery services may not meaningfully improve outcomes for emergency general surgery patients. Our findings have implications for the evolving specialty of emergency general surgery, especially for the safety and continued growth of the acute care surgery model.
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Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitais com Alto Volume de Atendimentos , Centros de Traumatologia , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Centros de Traumatologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Adulto , Hospitais com Alto Volume de Atendimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Operatórios/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Cirurgia Geral , Emergências , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Infarto do Miocárdio/cirurgia , Infarto do Miocárdio/mortalidade , Hospitais com Baixo Volume de Atendimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Cirurgia de Cuidados CríticosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) often require complex management and transfer to higher acuity facilities, especially given increasing national efforts aimed at centralizing care. We sought to characterize factors and evaluate outcomes associated with interhospital transfer using a contemporary national cohort. METHODS: All adult hospitalizations for EGS (appendectomy, cholecystectomy, laparotomy, lysis of adhesions, small/large bowel resection, and perforated ulcer repair) ≤2 days of admission were identified in the 2016-2020 National Inpatient Sample. Patients initially admitted to a different institution and transferred to the operating hospital comprised the Transfer cohort (others: Non-Transfer). Multivariable models were developed to consider the association of Transfer with outcomes of interest. RESULTS: Of â¼1 653 169 patients, 107 945 (6.5%) were considered the Transfer cohort. The proportion of patients experiencing interhospital transfer increased from 5.2% to 7.7% (2016-2020, P < .001). On average, Transfer was older, more commonly of White race, and of a higher Elixhauser comorbidity index. After adjustment, increasing age, living in a rural area, receiving care in the Midwest, and decreasing income quartile were associated with greater odds of interhospital transfer. Following risk adjustment, Transfer remained linked with increased odds of in-hospital mortality (AOR 1.64, CI 1.49-1.80), as well as any perioperative complication (AOR 1.33, CI 1.27-1.38; Reference: Non-Transfer). Additionally, Transfer was associated with significantly longer duration of hospitalization (ß + 1.04 days, CI + .91-1.17) and greater costs (ß+$3,490, CI + 2840-4140). DISCUSSION: While incidence of interhospital transfer for EGS is increasing, transfer patients face greater morbidity and resource utilization. Novel interventions are needed to optimize patient selection and improve post-transfer outcomes.