Expression profiling of cerebrospinal fluid identifies dysregulated antiviral mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

Despite the overwhelming evidence that multiple sclerosis is an autoimmune disease, relatively little is known about the precise nature of the immune dysregulation underlying the development of the disease. Reasoning that the CSF from patients might be enriched for cells relevant in pathogenesis, we have completed a high-resolution single-cell analysis of 96 732 CSF cells collected from 33 patients with multiple sclerosis (n = 48 675) and 48 patients with other neurological diseases (n = 48 057). Completing comprehensive cell type annotation, we identified a rare population of CD8+ T cells, characterized by the upregulation of inhibitory receptors, increased in patients with multiple sclerosis. Applying a Multi-Omics Factor Analysis to these single-cell data further revealed that activity in pathways responsible for controlling inflammatory and type 1 interferon responses are altered in multiple sclerosis in both T cells and myeloid cells. We also undertook a systematic search for expression quantitative trait loci in the CSF cells. Of particular interest were two expression quantitative trait loci in CD8+ T cells that were fine mapped to multiple sclerosis susceptibility variants in the viral control genes ZC3HAV1 (rs10271373) and IFITM2 (rs1059091). Further analysis suggests that these associations likely reflect genetic effects on RNA splicing and cell-type specific gene expression respectively. Collectively, our study suggests that alterations in viral control mechanisms might be important in the development of multiple sclerosis.

Overexpression of the Cytokine BAFF and Autoimmunity Risk.

BACKGROUND: Genomewide association studies of autoimmune diseases have mapped hundreds of susceptibility regions in the genome. However, only for a few association signals has the causal gene been identified, and for even fewer have the causal variant and underlying mechanism been defined. Coincident associations of DNA variants affecting both the risk of autoimmune disease and quantitative immune variables provide an informative route to explore disease mechanisms and drug-targetable pathways. METHODS: Using case-control samples from Sardinia, Italy, we performed a genomewide association study in multiple sclerosis followed by TNFSF13B locus-specific association testing in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Extensive phenotyping of quantitative immune variables, sequence-based fine mapping, cross-population and cross-phenotype analyses, and gene-expression studies were used to identify the causal variant and elucidate its mechanism of action. Signatures of positive selection were also investigated. RESULTS: A variant in TNFSF13B, encoding the cytokine and drug target B-cell activating factor (BAFF), was associated with multiple sclerosis as well as SLE. The disease-risk allele was also associated with up-regulated humoral immunity through increased levels of soluble BAFF, B lymphocytes, and immunoglobulins. The causal variant was identified: an insertion-deletion variant, GCTGT→A (in which A is the risk allele), yielded a shorter transcript that escaped microRNA inhibition and increased production of soluble BAFF, which in turn up-regulated humoral immunity. Population genetic signatures indicated that this autoimmunity variant has been evolutionarily advantageous, most likely by augmenting resistance to malaria. CONCLUSIONS: A TNFSF13B variant was associated with multiple sclerosis and SLE, and its effects were clarified at the population, cellular, and molecular levels. (Funded by the Italian Foundation for Multiple Sclerosis and others.).

Multiple sclerosis risk variants alter expression of co-stimulatory genes in B cells.

The increasing evidence supporting a role for B cells in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis prompted us to investigate the influence of known susceptibility variants on the surface expression of co-stimulatory molecules in these cells. Using flow cytometry we measured surface expression of CD40 and CD86 in B cells from 68 patients and 162 healthy controls that were genotyped for the multiple sclerosis associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs4810485, which maps within the CD40 gene, and rs9282641, which maps within the CD86 gene. We found that carrying the risk allele rs4810485*T lowered the cell-surface expression of CD40 in all tested B cell subtypes (in total B cells P ≤ 5.10 × 10-5 in patients and ≤4.09 × 10-6 in controls), while carrying the risk allele rs9282641*G increased the expression of CD86, with this effect primarily seen in the naïve B cell subset (P = 0.048 in patients and 5.38 × 10-5 in controls). In concordance with these results, analysis of RNA expression demonstrated that the risk allele rs4810485*T resulted in lower total CD40 expression (P = 0.057) but with an increased proportion of alternative splice-forms leading to decoy receptors (P = 4.00 × 10-7). Finally, we also observed that the risk allele rs4810485*T was associated with decreased levels of interleukin-10 (P = 0.020), which is considered to have an immunoregulatory function downstream of CD40. Given the importance of these co-stimulatory molecules in determining the immune reaction that appears in response to antigen our data suggest that B cells might have an important antigen presentation and immunoregulatory role in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.

Negligible impact of rare autoimmune-locus coding-region variants on missing heritability.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified common variants of modest-effect size at hundreds of loci for common autoimmune diseases; however, a substantial fraction of heritability remains unexplained, to which rare variants may contribute. To discover rare variants and test them for association with a phenotype, most studies re-sequence a small initial sample size and then genotype the discovered variants in a larger sample set. This approach fails to analyse a large fraction of the rare variants present in the entire sample set. Here we perform simultaneous amplicon-sequencing-based variant discovery and genotyping for coding exons of 25 GWAS risk genes in 41,911 UK residents of white European origin, comprising 24,892 subjects with six autoimmune disease phenotypes and 17,019 controls, and show that rare coding-region variants at known loci have a negligible role in common autoimmune disease susceptibility. These results do not support the rare-variant synthetic genome-wide-association hypothesis (in which unobserved rare causal variants lead to association detected at common tag variants). Many known autoimmune disease risk loci contain multiple, independently associated, common and low-frequency variants, and so genes at these loci are a priori stronger candidates for harbouring rare coding-region variants than other genes. Our data indicate that the missing heritability for common autoimmune diseases may not be attributable to the rare coding-region variant portion of the allelic spectrum, but perhaps, as others have proposed, may be a result of many common-variant loci of weak effect.

Dissection of a Complex Disease Susceptibility Region Using a Bayesian Stochastic Search Approach to Fine Mapping.

Identification of candidate causal variants in regions associated with risk of common diseases is complicated by linkage disequilibrium (LD) and multiple association signals. Nonetheless, accurate maps of these variants are needed, both to fully exploit detailed cell specific chromatin annotation data to highlight disease causal mechanisms and cells, and for design of the functional studies that will ultimately be required to confirm causal mechanisms. We adapted a Bayesian evolutionary stochastic search algorithm to the fine mapping problem, and demonstrated its improved performance over conventional stepwise and regularised regression through simulation studies. We then applied it to fine map the established multiple sclerosis (MS) and type 1 diabetes (T1D) associations in the IL-2RA (CD25) gene region. For T1D, both stepwise and stochastic search approaches identified four T1D association signals, with the major effect tagged by the single nucleotide polymorphism, rs12722496. In contrast, for MS, the stochastic search found two distinct competing models: a single candidate causal variant, tagged by rs2104286 and reported previously using stepwise analysis; and a more complex model with two association signals, one of which was tagged by the major T1D associated rs12722496 and the other by rs56382813. There is low to moderate LD between rs2104286 and both rs12722496 and rs56382813 (r2 ≃ 0:3) and our two SNP model could not be recovered through a forward stepwise search after conditioning on rs2104286. Both signals in the two variant model for MS affect CD25 expression on distinct subpopulations of CD4+ T cells, which are key cells in the autoimmune process. The results support a shared causal variant for T1D and MS. Our study illustrates the benefit of using a purposely designed model search strategy for fine mapping and the advantage of combining disease and protein expression data.

Age Related Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score: Disability ranked by age.

BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) is obtained by normalising the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score for disease duration and has been a valuable tool in cross-sectional studies. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether use of age rather than the inherently ambiguous disease duration was a feasible approach. METHOD: We pooled disability data from three population-based cohorts and developed an Age Related Multiple Sclerosis Severity (ARMSS) score by ranking EDSS scores based on the patient's age at the time of assessment. We established the power to detect a difference between groups afforded by the ARMSS score and assessed its relative consistency over time. RESULTS: The study population included 26058 patients from Sweden ( n = 11846), Canada ( n = 6179) and the United Kingdom ( n = 8033). There was a moderate correlation between EDSS and disease duration ( r = 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.45-0.47) and between EDSS and age ( r = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.43-0.45). The ARMSS scores showed comparable power to detect disability differences between groups to the updated and original MSSS. CONCLUSION: Since age is typically unbiased and readily obtained, and the ARMSS and MSSS were comparable, the ARMSS may provide a more versatile tool and could minimise study biases and loss of statistical power caused by inaccurate or missing onset dates.

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.

European multiple sclerosis risk variants in the south Asian population.

BACKGROUND: In less than a decade, genomewide association studies have identified over 100 single-nucleotide variants that are associated with increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis. However, since these studies have focused almost exclusively on European populations, it is unclear what role these variants might play in determining risk in other ethnic groups. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of European multiple sclerosis-associated risk variants in the south Asian population. METHODS: Using a combination of chip-based genotyping and next-generation sequencing, we have assessed 109 European-associated variants in a total of 270 cases and 555 controls from the south Asian population. RESULTS: We found that two-thirds of the tested variants (72/109) showed over representation of the European risk allele in south Asian cases (p < 0.0003). In the rest of the Immunochip array, the most associated variant was rs7318477 which maps close to TNFSF13B, the gene for the B-cell-related protein BAFF. CONCLUSION: Our data indicate substantial overlap in genetic risk architecture between Europeans and south Asians and suggest that the aetiology of the disease may be largely independent of ethnicity.

HLA associations in South Asian multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Previous efforts to identify Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) gene associations with multiple sclerosis (MS) in the South Asian population have been underpowered. AIM: To identify the primary HLA class II alleles associated with MS in Indians. METHODS: We typed HLA-DRB1, -DQA1 and -DQB1 in 419 patients and 451 unrelated controls by polymerase chain reaction using sequence specific oligonucleotide probes (PCR-SSOP). RESULTS: At the gene level DRB1 showed significant evidence of association (p=0.0000012), DQA1 showed only marginal evidence of association (p=0.04) and there was no evidence for association at DQB1 (p=0.26). At the DRB1 locus association is confirmed with the *15:01 (p=0.00002) and the *03 (p=0.00005) alleles. CONCLUSION: Our study confirms that the risk effects attributable to the HLA- DRB1*15:01and DRB1*03 alleles seen in Europeans are also seen in Indians. The absence of any evidence of association with DQB1 alleles reflects the lower linkage disequilibrium between DQB1 alleles and DRB1 risk alleles present in this population, and illustrates the potential value of fine mapping signals of association in different ethnic groups.

Interleukin 7 receptor alpha chain (IL7R) shows allelic and functional association with multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a demyelinating neurodegenerative disease with a strong genetic component. Previous genetic risk studies have failed to identify consistently linked regions or genes outside of the major histocompatibility complex on chromosome 6p. We describe allelic association of a polymorphism in the gene encoding the interleukin 7 receptor alpha chain (IL7R) as a significant risk factor for multiple sclerosis in four independent family-based or case-control data sets (overall P = 2.9 x 10(-7)). Further, the likely causal SNP, rs6897932, located within the alternatively spliced exon 6 of IL7R, has a functional effect on gene expression. The SNP influences the amount of soluble and membrane-bound isoforms of the protein by putatively disrupting an exonic splicing silencer.

Confounding underlies the apparent month of birth effect in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Several groups have reported apparent association between month of birth and multiple sclerosis. We sought to test the extent to which such studies might be confounded by extraneous variables such as year and place of birth. METHODS: Using national birth statistics from 2 continents, we assessed the evidence for seasonal variations in birth rate and tested the extent to which these are subject to regional and temporal variation. We then established the age and regional origin distribution for a typical multiple sclerosis case collection and determined the false-positive rate expected when comparing such a collection with birth rates estimated by averaging population-specific national statistics. RESULTS: We confirm that seasonality in birth rate is ubiquitous and subject to highly significant regional and temporal variations. In the context of this variation we show that birth rates observed in typical case collections are highly likely to deviate significantly from those obtained by the simple unweighted averaging of national statistics. The significant correlations between birth rates and both place (latitude) and time (year of birth) that characterize the general population indicate that the apparent seasonal patterns for month of birth suggested to be specific for multiple sclerosis (increased in the spring and reduced in the winter) are expected by chance alone. INTERPRETATION: In the absence of adequate control for confounding factors, such as year and place of birth, our analyses indicate that the previous claims for association of multiple sclerosis with month of birth are probably false positives.

No evidence of association between mutant alleles of the CYP27B1 gene and multiple sclerosis.

An association has previously been reported between susceptibility to multiple sclerosis and the rare mutant alleles of the CYP27B1 gene responsible for autosomal recessive vitamin D-dependent rickets type 1 (VDDR1). In an attempt to replicate this finding, we screened 495 multiplex families and 2,092 single affected families, together with 4,594 cases and 3,583 controls (a total of 17,073 individuals) but were unable to find any evidence supporting this putative association. Our data do not indicate that mutations responsible for VDDR1 influence the risk of developing multiple sclerosis.

Glucocerebrosidase mutations influence the natural history of Parkinson's disease in a community-based incident cohort.

Carriers of mutations in the glucocerebrosidase gene (GBA) are at increased risk of developing Parkinson's disease. The frequency of GBA mutations in unselected Parkinson's disease populations has not been established. Furthermore, no previous studies have investigated the influence of GBA mutations on the natural history of Parkinson's disease using prospective follow-up. We studied DNA from 262 cases who had been recruited at diagnosis into one of two independent community-based incidence studies of Parkinson's disease. In 121 cases, longitudinal data regarding progression of motor disability and cognitive function were derived from follow-up assessments conducted every 18 months for a median of 71 months. Sequencing of the GBA was performed after two-stage polymerase chain reaction amplification. The carrier frequency of genetic variants in GBA was determined. Baseline demographic and clinical variables were compared between cases who were either GBA mutation carriers, polymorphism carriers or wild-type homozygotes. Cox regression analysis was used to model progression to major motor (Hoehn and Yahr stage 3), and cognitive (dementia) end-points in cases followed longitudinally. We show that in a representative, unselected UK Parkinson's disease population, GBA mutations are present at a frequency of 3.5%. This is higher than the prevalence of other genetic mutations currently associated with Parkinson's disease and indicates that GBA mutations make an important contribution to Parkinson's disease encountered in the community setting. Baseline clinical characteristics did not differ significantly between cases with and without GBA sequence variants. However, the hazard ratio for progression both to dementia (5.7, P = 0.003) and Hoehn and Yahr stage 3 (4.2, P = 0.003) were significantly greater in GBA mutation carriers. We also show that carriers of polymorphisms in GBA which are not generally considered to increase Parkinson's disease risk are at significantly increased risk of progression to Hoehn and Yahr stage 3 (3.2, P = 0.004). Our results indicate that genetic variation in GBA has an important impact on the natural history of Parkinson's disease. To our knowledge, this is the first time a genetic locus has been shown to influence motor progression in Parkinson's disease. If confirmed in further studies, this may indicate that GBA mutation status could be used as a prognostic marker in Parkinson's disease. Elucidation of the molecular mechanisms that underlie this effect will further our understanding of the pathogenesis of the disease and may in turn suggest novel therapeutic strategies.

MANBA, CXCR5, SOX8, RPS6KB1 and ZBTB46 are genetic risk loci for multiple sclerosis.

A recent genome-wide association study reported five loci for which there was strong, but sub-genome-wide significant evidence for association with multiple sclerosis risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of these potential risk loci in a large and independent data set of ≈ 20,000 subjects. We tested five single nucleotide polymorphisms rs228614 (MANBA), rs630923 (CXCR5), rs2744148 (SOX8), rs180515 (RPS6KB1), and rs6062314 (ZBTB46) for association with multiple sclerosis risk in a total of 8499 cases with multiple sclerosis, 8765 unrelated control subjects and 958 trios of European descent. In addition, we assessed the overall evidence for association by combining these newly generated data with the results from the original genome-wide association study by meta-analysis. All five tested single nucleotide polymorphisms showed consistent and statistically significant evidence for association with multiple sclerosis in our validation data sets (rs228614: odds ratio = 0.91, P = 2.4 × 10(-6); rs630923: odds ratio = 0.89, P = 1.2 × 10(-4); rs2744148: odds ratio = 1.14, P = 1.8 × 10(-6); rs180515: odds ratio = 1.12, P = 5.2 × 10(-7); rs6062314: odds ratio = 0.90, P = 4.3 × 10(-3)). Combining our data with results from the previous genome-wide association study by meta-analysis, the evidence for association was strengthened further, surpassing the threshold for genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)) in each case. Our study provides compelling evidence that these five loci are genuine multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci. These results may eventually lead to a better understanding of the underlying disease pathophysiology.

Serotonin transporter length polymorphism, childhood maltreatment, and chronic depression: a specific gene-environment interaction.

BACKGROUND: Key questions about the interaction between the serotonin transporter length polymorphism (5-HTTLPR) and stress in the etiology of depression remain unresolved. We test the hypotheses that the interaction is restricted to childhood maltreatment (as opposed to stressful events in adulthood), and leads to chronic depressive episodes (as opposed to any onset of depression), using gold-standard assessments of childhood maltreatment, severe life events, chronic depression, and new depressive onsets. METHOD: In a risk-enriched sample of 273 unrelated women, childhood maltreatment was retrospectively assessed with the Childhood Experience of Care and Abuse (CECA) interview and 5-HTTLPR was genotyped. A subset of 220 women was followed prospectively for 12 months with life events assessed with the Life Events and Difficulties (LEDS) interview. Any chronic episode of depression (12 months or longer) during adulthood and onset of a major depressive episode during a 12-month follow-up were established with the Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry (SCAN) interview. RESULTS: The short alleles of 5-HTTLPR moderated the relationship between childhood maltreatment and chronic depression in adulthood, reflected in a significant gene-environment interaction (RD = 0.226, 95% CI: 0.076-0.376, P = .0032). 5-HTTLPR did not moderate the effects of either childhood maltreatment or severe life events on new depressive onsets. CONCLUSIONS: The short variant of the serotonin transporter gene specifically sensitizes to the effect of early-life experience of abuse or neglect on whether an adult depressive episode takes a chronic course. This interaction may be responsible for a substantial proportion of cases of chronic depression in the general population.

5-HTTLPR-environment interplay and its effects on neural reactivity in adolescents.

It is not known how 5-HTTLPR genotype x childhood adversity (CA) interactions that are associated with an increased risk for affective disorders in population studies operate at the neural systems level. We hypothesized that healthy adolescents at increased genetic and environmental risk for developing mood disorders (depression and anxiety) would demonstrate increased amygdala reactivity to emotional stimuli compared to those with only one such risk factor or those with none. Participants (n=67) were classified into one of 4 groups dependent on being homozygous for the long or short alleles within the serotonin-transporter-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) of the SLC6A4 gene and exposure to CA in the first 11 years of life (present or absent). A functional magnetic resonance imaging investigation was undertaken which involved viewing emotionally-salient face stimuli. In addition, we assessed the role of other variables hypothesized to influence amygdala reactivity, namely recent negative life-events (RNLE) assessed at ages 14 and 17, current anxiety symptoms and psychiatric history. We replicated prior findings demonstrating moderation by gene variants in 5-HTTLPR, but found no support for an effect of CA on amygdala reactivity. We also found a significant effect of RNLE aged 17 with amygdala reactivity demonstrating additive, but not interactive effects with 5-HTTLPR. A whole-brain analysis found a 5-HTTLPR×CA interaction in the lingual gyrus whereby CA appears to differentially modify neural reactivity depending on genotype. These results demonstrate that two different forms of environmental adversities interplay with 5-HTTLPR and thereby differentially impact amygdala and cortical reactivity.

Genetic and pathological links between Parkinson's disease and the lysosomal disorder Sanfilippo syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a common neurodegenerative disorder of unknown etiology. The characteristic α-synuclein aggregation of PD is also a feature of Sanfilippo syndrome, a storage disorder caused by α-N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAGLU) gene mutations. We explored genetic links between these disorders and studied the pathology of Sanfilippo syndrome to investigate a common pathway toward α-synuclein aggregation. METHODS: We typed the 2 single-nucleotide polymorphisms that tag the common haplotypes of NAGLU in 926 PD patients and 2308 controls and also stained cortical tissue from 2 cases of Sanfilippo A syndrome using the anti-α-synuclein antibody, Per7. RESULTS: Allelic analysis showed an association between rs2071046 and risk for PD (P 1.3 × 10(-3) ). Intracellular α-synuclein accumulation was observed in the cortical tissue of both Sanfilippo A syndrome cases. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests a possible role of NAGLU in susceptibility to PD while extending evidence for α-synuclein aggregation in the brain in lysosomal storage disorders. Our findings support a mechanism involving lysosomal dysfunction more generally in the pathogenesis of PD.

Potential association of vitamin D receptor polymorphism Taq1 with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The environmental influence of sun exposure and vitamin D in particular and its implication with multiple sclerosis (MS) has recently received considerable attention. Current evidence based on genetic and epidemiological studies indicate that vitamin D is implicated in the aetiology of this disease. METHODS: We examined two common variants in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene in 1153 trio families and 726 cases and 604 controls. We also examined epistatic interactions between the VDR SNPs rs731236 and rs2228570 with the tagging single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3135388 for the HLA-DRB*1501 locus containing a highly conserved vitamin D responsive element within its promoter region. RESULTS: We found weak evidence for an association between the rs731236C allele and MS, while there was no direct association with rs2228570. When examining the interaction between the VDR gene variations and the DRB1*1501 tagging SNP a more complex relationship was observed. Although the interaction was not statistically significant, there appeared to be a trend of increasing risk of MS in participants who were homozygous for the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele in association with the more active form of the VDR (Fok1). CONCLUSION: We have identified weak evidence of an association between a common variation within the VDR gene and MS, in the largest study reported to date of this candidate gene. There appears to be a relationship between polymorphisms in the VDR and the risk of MS, which is potentially modified by HLA-DRB1*1501.

Association of HLA class I markers with multiple sclerosis in the Italian and UK population: evidence of two independent protective effects.

BACKGROUND: The association of HLA A*02 with multiple sclerosis (MS) was recently confirmed by the authors, and it was observed that the combined presence of HLA Cw*05 significantly enhanced (threefold) the protective effect of HLA A*02. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Since A*02-Cw*05 is carried by two HLA extended haplotypes characterised by the B*4402 and B*1801 alleles, respectively, the association analysis was extended to HLA B*44 and B*18 in an Italian sample (1445 MS cases and 973 controls) and these associations were verified in a UK cohort (721 MS cases, 408 controls and 480 family trios). RESULTS: A strong protective effect, independent of DR15, of the A*02-Cw*05 combination carrying B*44 (OR 0.27, p=3.3×10(-5)) was seen in the Italian samples and confirmed in UK family trios (OR 0.33, p=5.5×10(-4)) and in a combined cohort of UK families and case-controls (OR 0.53, p=0.044). This protective effect was significantly stronger than that mediated by A*02 alone. Logistic regression showed that A*02-Cw*05 maintained a significant protection when adjusted for B alleles (Italy: OR 0.38, p=6.5×10(-7); UK: OR 0.60, p=0.0029), indicating that it was not secondary to linkage disequilibrium with B*44. Different from A*02, the other HLA class I tested markers individually showed no significant (Cw*05, B*18) or a modest (B*44) protection when adjusted for the remaining markers. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified at least two independent protective effects which are tagged by A*02-Cw*05 and A*02, respectively. Further studies are needed to elucidate whether this protective effect is due to the presence of an unanalysed factor characterising the HLA extended haplotype(s) carrying A*02 and Cw*05 or to a direct interaction between these alleles.

What role for genetics in the prediction of multiple sclerosis?

For most of us, the foundations of our understanding of genetics were laid by considering Mendelian diseases in which familial recurrence risks are high, and mutant alleles are both necessary and sufficient. One consequence of this deterministic teaching is that our conceptualization of genetics tends to be dominated by the notion that the genetic aspects of disease are caused by rare alleles exerting large effects. Unfortunately, the preconceptions that flow from this training are frequently erroneous and misleading in the context of common traits, where familial recurrence risks are modest, and for the most part the relevant alleles are neither rare, necessary, nor sufficient. For these common traits, the genetic architecture is far more complex, with susceptibility rather than causality resulting from the combined effects of many alleles, each exerting only a modest effect on risk. None of these alleles is sufficient to cause disease on its own, and none is essential for the development of disease. Furthermore, most are carried by large sections of the population, the vast majority of which does not develop the disease. One consequence of our innate belief in the Mendelian paradigm is that we have an inherent expectation that knowledge about the genetic basis for a disease should allow genetic testing and thereby accurate risk prediction. There is an inevitable feeling that the same should be true in complex disease, but is it?