The AMG model coupled with Rock-Eval® analysis accurately predicts cropland soil organic carbon dynamics in the Tuojiang River Basin, Southwest China.

Accurate soil organic carbon models are key to understand the mechanisms governing carbon sequestration in soil and to help develop targeted management strategies to carbon budget. The accuracy and reliability of soil organic carbon (SOC) models remains strongly limited by incorrect initialization of the conceptual kinetic pools and lack of stringent model evaluation using time-series datasets. Notably, due to legacy effects of management and land use change, the traditional spin-up approach for initial allocation of SOC among kinetic pools can bring substantial uncertainties in predicting the evolution of SOC stocks. The AMG model can fulfill these conditions as it is a parsimonious yet accurate SOC model using widely-available input data. In this study, we first evaluated the performance of AMGv2 before and after optimizing the potential mineralization rate (k0) of SOC stock following a leave-one-site-out cross-validation based on 24 long-term field experiments (LTEs) in the Southwest of China. Then, we used Rock-Eval® thermal analysis results as input variables in the PARTYSOC machine learning model to estimate the initial stable SOC fraction (CS/C0) for the 14 LTEs where soil samples were available. The results showed that initializing the CS/C0 ratio using PARTYSOC combined with the optimized k0 further improved the accuracy of model simulations (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 0.25, d = 0.90). Combining average measured CS/C0 and k0 optimization across all 24 LTEs also improved the model predictive capability by 25% compared to using default parameterization, thus suggesting promising avenue for upscaling model applications at the regional level where only a few measurement data on SOC stability can be available. In conclusion, the new version of the AMG model developed in the Tuojiang River Basin context exhibits excellent performance. This result paves the way for further calibration and validation of the AMG model in a wider set of contexts, with the potential to significantly improve confidence in SOC predictions in croplands over regional scales.

Current controversies on mechanisms controlling soil carbon storage: implications for interactions with practitioners and policy-makers. A review.

There is currently an intense debate about the potential for additional organic carbon storage in soil, the strategies by which it may be accomplished and what the actual benefits might be for agriculture and the climate. Controversy forms an essential part of the scientific process, but on the topic of soil carbon storage, it may confuse the agricultural community and the general public and may delay actions to fight climate change. In an attempt to shed light on this topic, the originality of this article lies in its intention to provide a balanced description of contradictory scientific opinions on soil carbon storage and to examine how the scientific community can support decision-making despite the controversy. In the first part, we review and attempt to reconcile conflicting views on the mechanisms controlling organic carbon dynamics in soil. We discuss the divergent opinions about chemical recalcitrance, the microbial or plant origin of persistent soil organic matter, the contribution of particulate organic matter to additional organic carbon storage in soil, and the spatial and energetic inaccessibility of soil organic matter to decomposers. In the second part, we examine the advantages and limitations of big data management and modeling, which are essential tools to link the latest scientific theories with the actions taken by stakeholders. Finally, we show how the analysis and discussion of controversies can guide scientists in supporting stakeholders for the design of (i) appropriate trade-offs for biomass use in agriculture and forestry and (ii) climate-smart management practices, keeping in mind their still unresolved effects on soil carbon storage.

Topsoil organic matter build-up in glacier forelands around the world.

Since the last glacial maximum, soil formation related to ice-cover shrinkage has been one major sink of carbon accumulating as soil organic matter (SOM), a phenomenon accelerated by the ongoing global warming. In recently deglacierized forelands, processes of SOM accumulation, including those that control carbon and nitrogen sequestration rates and biogeochemical stability of newly sequestered carbon, remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the build-up of SOM during the initial stages (up to 410 years) of topsoil development in 10 glacier forelands distributed on four continents. We test whether the net accumulation of SOM on glacier forelands (i) depends on the time since deglacierization and local climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation); (ii) is accompanied by a decrease in its stability and (iii) is mostly due to an increasing contribution of organic matter from plant origin. We measured total SOM concentration (carbon, nitrogen), its relative hydrogen/oxygen enrichment, stable isotopic (13 C, 15 N) and carbon functional groups (C-H, C=O, C=C) compositions, and its distribution in carbon pools of different thermal stability. We show that SOM content increases with time and is faster on forelands experiencing warmer climates. The build-up of SOM pools shows consistent trends across the studied soil chronosequences. During the first decades of soil development, the low amount of SOM is dominated by a thermally stable carbon pool with a small and highly thermolabile pool. The stability of SOM decreases with soil age at all sites, indicating that SOM storage is dominated by the accumulation of labile SOM during the first centuries of soil development, and suggesting plant carbon inputs to soil (SOM depleted in nitrogen, enriched in hydrogen and in aromatic carbon). Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of SOM stocks from proglacial areas to decomposition and suggest that their durability largely depends on the relative contribution of carbon inputs from plants.

Microbial dynamics and soil physicochemical properties explain large-scale variations in soil organic carbon.

First-order organic matter decomposition models are used within most Earth System Models (ESMs) to project future global carbon cycling; these models have been criticized for not accurately representing mechanisms of soil organic carbon (SOC) stabilization and SOC response to climate change. New soil biogeochemical models have been developed, but their evaluation is limited to observations from laboratory incubations or few field experiments. Given the global scope of ESMs, a comprehensive evaluation of such models is essential using in situ observations of a wide range of SOC stocks over large spatial scales before their introduction to ESMs. In this study, we collected a set of in situ observations of SOC, litterfall and soil properties from 206 sites covering different forest and soil types in Europe and China. These data were used to calibrate the model MIMICS (The MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization model), which we compared to the widely used first-order model CENTURY. We show that, compared to CENTURY, MIMICS more accurately estimates forest SOC concentrations and the sensitivities of SOC to variation in soil temperature, clay content and litter input. The ratios of microbial biomass to total SOC predicted by MIMICS agree well with independent observations from globally distributed forest sites. By testing different hypotheses regarding (using alternative process representations) the physicochemical constraints on SOC deprotection and microbial turnover in MIMICS, the errors of simulated SOC concentrations across sites were further decreased. We show that MIMICS can resolve the dominant mechanisms of SOC decomposition and stabilization and that it can be a reliable tool for predictions of terrestrial SOC dynamics under future climate change. It also allows us to evaluate at large scale the rapidly evolving understanding of SOC formation and stabilization based on laboratory and limited filed observation.

Increase in soil stable carbon isotope ratio relates to loss of organic carbon: results from five long-term bare fallow experiments.

Changes in the (12)C/(13)C ratio (expressed as δ(13)C) of soil organic C (SOC) has been observed over long time scales and with depth in soil profiles. The changes are ascribed to the different reaction kinetics of (12)C and (13)C isotopes and the different isotopic composition of various SOC pool components. However, experimental verification of the subtle isotopic shifts associated with SOC turnover under field conditions is scarce. We determined δ(13)C and SOC in soil sampled during 1929-2009 in the Ap-horizon of five European long-term bare fallow experiments kept without C inputs for 27-80 years and covering a latitudinal range of 11°. The bare fallow soils lost 33-65% of their initial SOC content and showed a mean annual δ(13)C increase of 0.008-0.024‰. The (13)C enrichment could be related empirically to SOC losses by a Rayleigh distillation equation. A more complex mechanistic relationship was also examined. The overall estimate of the fractionation coefficient (ε) was -1.2 ± 0.3‰. This coefficient represents an important input to studies of long-term SOC dynamics in agricultural soils that are based on variations in (13)C natural abundance. The variance of ε may be ascribed to site characteristics not disclosed in our study, but the very similar kinetics measured across our five experimental sites suggest that overall site-specific factors (including climate) had a marginal influence and that it may be possible to isolate a general mechanism causing the enrichment, although pre-fallow land use may have some impact on isotope abundance and fractionation.

Higher temperature sensitivity for stable than for labile soil organic carbon--evidence from incubations of long-term bare fallow soils.

The impact of climate change on the stability of soil organic carbon (SOC) remains a major source of uncertainty in predicting future changes in atmospheric CO2 levels. One unsettled issue is whether the mineralization response to temperature depends on SOC mineralization rate. Long-term (>25 years) bare fallow experiments (LTBF) in which the soil is kept free of any vegetation and organic inputs, and their associated archives of soil samples represent a unique research platform to examine this issue as with increasing duration of fallow, the lability of remaining total SOC decreases. We retrieved soils from LTBF experiments situated at Askov (Denmark), Grignon (France), Ultuna (Sweden), and Versailles (France) and sampled at the start of the experiments and after 25, 50, 52, and 79 years of bare fallow, respectively. Soils were incubated at 4, 12, 20, and 35 °C and the evolved CO2 monitored. The apparent activation energy (Ea) of SOC was then calculated for similar loss of CO2 at the different temperatures. The Ea was always higher for samples taken at the end of the bare-fallow period, implying a higher temperature sensitivity of stable C than of labile C. Our results provide strong evidence for a general relationship between temperature sensitivity and SOC stability upon which significant improvements in predictive models could be based.

Stability of organic carbon in deep soil layers controlled by fresh carbon supply.

The world's soils store more carbon than is present in biomass and in the atmosphere. Little is known, however, about the factors controlling the stability of soil organic carbon stocks and the response of the soil carbon pool to climate change remains uncertain. We investigated the stability of carbon in deep soil layers in one soil profile by combining physical and chemical characterization of organic carbon, soil incubations and radiocarbon dating. Here we show that the supply of fresh plant-derived carbon to the subsoil (0.6-0.8 m depth) stimulated the microbial mineralization of 2,567 +/- 226-year-old carbon. Our results support the previously suggested idea that in the absence of fresh organic carbon, an essential source of energy for soil microbes, the stability of organic carbon in deep soil layers is maintained. We propose that a lack of supply of fresh carbon may prevent the decomposition of the organic carbon pool in deep soil layers in response to future changes in temperature. Any change in land use and agricultural practice that increases the distribution of fresh carbon along the soil profile could however stimulate the loss of ancient buried carbon.

A new approach to estimate soil organic carbon content targets in European croplands topsoils.

Adopting land management practices that increase the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands is widely promoted as a win-win strategy to enhance soil health and mitigate climate change. In this context, the definition of reference SOC content and stock values is needed to provide reliable targets to farmers, policymakers, and stakeholders. In this study, we used the LUCAS dataset to compare different methods for evaluating reference SOC content and stock values in European croplands topsoils (0-20 cm depth). Methods gave generally similar estimates although being built on very different assumptions. In the absence of an objective criterion to establish which approach is the most suitable to determine SOC reference values, we propose an ensemble modelling approach that consists in extracting the estimates using different relevant methods and retaining the median value among them. Interestingly, this approach led us to select values from the three different approaches with similar frequencies. Using estimated bulk density values, we obtained a first rough estimate of 3.5 Gt C of SOC storage potential in the cropland topsoils that we interpret as a long-term aspirational target that would be reachable only under extreme changes in agricultural practices. The use of additional methods in the ensemble modelling approach and more valid statistical spatial estimates may further refine our approach designed for the estimation of SOC reference values for croplands.

Bioenergetic control of soil carbon dynamics across depth.

Soil carbon dynamics is strongly controlled by depth globally, with increasingly slow dynamics found at depth. The mechanistic basis remains however controversial, limiting our ability to predict carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Here we combine radiocarbon and thermal analyses with long-term incubations in absence/presence of continuously 13C/14C-labelled plants to show that bioenergetic constraints of decomposers consistently drive the depth-dependency of soil carbon dynamics over a range of mineral reactivity contexts. The slow dynamics of subsoil carbon is tightly related to both its low energy density and high activation energy of decomposition, leading to an unfavourable 'return-on-energy-investment' for decomposers. We also observe strong acceleration of millennia-old subsoil carbon decomposition induced by roots ('rhizosphere priming'), showing that sufficient supply of energy by roots is able to alleviate the strong energy limitation of decomposition. These findings demonstrate that subsoil carbon persistence results from its poor energy quality together with the lack of energy supply by roots due to their low density at depth.

Generic parameters of first-order kinetics accurately describe soil organic matter decay in bare fallow soils over a wide edaphic and climatic range.

The conventional soil organic matter (SOM) decay paradigm considers the intrinsic quality of SOM as the dominant decay limitation with the result that it is modelled using simple first-order decay kinetics. This view and modelling approach is often criticized for being too simplistic and unreliable for predictive purposes. It is still under debate if first-order models can correctly capture the variability in temporal SOM decay observed between different agroecosystems and climates. To address this question, we calibrated a first-order model (Q) on six long-term bare fallow field experiments across Europe. Following conventional SOM decay theory, we assumed that parameters directly describing SOC decay (rate of SOM quality change and decomposer metabolism) are thermodynamically constrained and therefore valid for all sites. Initial litter input quality and edaphic interactions (both local by definition) and microbial efficiency (possibly affected by nutrient stoichiometry) were instead considered site-specific. Initial litter input quality explained most observed kinetics variability, and the model predicted a convergence toward a common kinetics over time. Site-specific variables played no detectable role. The decay of decades-old SOM seemed mostly influenced by OM chemistry and was well described by first order kinetics and a single set of general kinetics parameters.

National estimation of soil organic carbon storage potential for arable soils: A data-driven approach coupled with carbon-landscape zones.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for its contributions to agricultural production, food security, and ecosystem services. Increasing SOC stocks can contribute to mitigate climate change by transferring atmospheric CO2 into long-lived soil carbon pools. The launch of the 4 per 1000 initiative has resulted in an increased interest in developing methods to quantity the additional SOC that can be stored in soil under different management options. In this work, we have made a first attempt to estimate SOC storage potential of arable soils using a data-driven approach based on the French National Soil Monitoring Network. The data-driven approach was used to determine the maximum SOC stocks of arable soils for France. We first defined different carbon-landscape zones (CLZs) using clustering analysis. We then computed estimates of the highest possible values using percentile of 0.8, 0.85, 0.9 and 0.95 of the measured SOC stocks within these CLZs. The SOC storage potential was calculated as the difference between the maximum SOC stocks and current SOC stocks for topsoil and subsoil. The percentile used to determine highest possible SOC had a large influence on the estimates of French national SOC storage potential. When the percentile increased from 0.8 to 0.95, the national SOC storage potential increased by two to three-fold, from 336 to 1020 Mt for topsoil and from 165 to 433 Mt for subsoil, suggesting a high sensitivity of this approach to the selected percentile. Nevertheless, we argue that this approach can offer advantages from an operational point of view, as it enables to set targets of SOC storage taking into account both policy makers' and farmers' considerations about their feasibility. Robustness of the estimates should be further assessed using complementary approaches such as mechanistic modelling.