Making the case for an International Decade of Radiocarbon.

Radiocarbon (14C) is a critical tool for understanding the global carbon cycle. During the Anthropocene, two new processes influenced 14C in atmospheric, land and ocean carbon reservoirs. First, 14C-free carbon derived from fossil fuel burning has diluted 14C, at rates that have accelerated with time. Second, 'bomb' 14C produced by atmospheric nuclear weapon tests in the mid-twentieth century provided a global isotope tracer that is used to constrain rates of air-sea gas exchange, carbon turnover, large-scale atmospheric and ocean transport, and other key C cycle processes. As we write, the 14C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 is dropping below pre-industrial levels, and the rate of decline in the future will depend on global fossil fuel use and net exchange of bomb 14C between the atmosphere, ocean and land. This milestone coincides with a rapid increase in 14C measurement capacity worldwide. Leveraging future 14C measurements to understand processes and test models requires coordinated international effort-a 'decade of radiocarbon' with multiple goals: (i) filling observational gaps using archives, (ii) building and sustaining observation networks to increase measurement density across carbon reservoirs, (iii) developing databases, synthesis and modelling tools and (iv) establishing metrics for identifying and verifying changes in carbon sources and sinks. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'.

Estimating US fossil fuel CO2 emissions from measurements of 14C in atmospheric CO2.

We report national scale estimates of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in the United States based directly on atmospheric observations, using a dual-tracer inverse modeling framework and CO2 and [Formula: see text] measurements obtained primarily from the North American portion of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. The derived US national total for 2010 is 1,653 ± 30 TgC yr-1 with an uncertainty ([Formula: see text]) that takes into account random errors associated with atmospheric transport, atmospheric measurements, and specified prior CO2 and 14C fluxes. The atmosphere-derived estimate is significantly larger ([Formula: see text]) than US national emissions for 2010 from three global inventories widely used for CO2 accounting, even after adjustments for emissions that might be sensed by the atmospheric network, but which are not included in inventory totals. It is also larger ([Formula: see text]) than a similarly adjusted total from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but overlaps EPA's reported upper 95% confidence limit. In contrast, the atmosphere-derived estimate is within [Formula: see text] of the adjusted 2010 annual total and nine of 12 adjusted monthly totals aggregated from the latest version of the high-resolution, US-specific "Vulcan" emission data product. Derived emissions appear to be robust to a range of assumed prior emissions and other parameters of the inversion framework. While we cannot rule out a possible bias from assumed prior Net Ecosystem Exchange over North America, we show that this can be overcome with additional [Formula: see text] measurements. These results indicate the strong potential for quantification of US emissions and their multiyear trends from atmospheric observations.

Quantifying the Impact of Atmospheric Transport Uncertainty on CO2 Surface Flux Estimates.

We show that transport differences between two commonly used global chemical transport models, GEOS-Chem and TM5, lead to systematic space-time differences in modeled distributions of carbon dioxide and sulfur hexafluoride. The distribution of differences suggests inconsistencies between the transport simulated by the models, most likely due to the representation of vertical motion. We further demonstrate that these transport differences result in systematic differences in surface CO2 flux estimated by a collection of global atmospheric inverse models using TM5 and GEOS-Chem and constrained by in situ and satellite observations. While the impact on inferred surface fluxes is most easily illustrated in the magnitude of the seasonal cycle of surface CO2 exchange, it is the annual carbon budgets that are particularly relevant for carbon cycle science and policy. We show that inverse model flux estimates for large zonal bands can have systematic biases of up to 1.7 PgC/year due to large-scale transport uncertainty. These uncertainties will propagate directly into analysis of the annual meridional CO2 flux gradient between the tropics and northern midlatitudes, a key metric for understanding the location, and more importantly the processes, responsible for the annual global carbon sink. The research suggests that variability among transport models remains the largest source of uncertainty across global flux inversion systems and highlights the importance both of using model ensembles and of using independent constraints to evaluate simulated transport.

The reduced net carbon uptake over Northern Hemisphere land causes the close-to-normal CO2 growth rate in 2021 La Niña.

La Niña climate anomalies have historically been associated with substantial reductions in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. However, the 2021 La Niña exhibited a unique near-neutral impact on the CO2 growth rate. In this study, we investigate the underlying mechanisms by using an ensemble of net CO2 fluxes constrained by CO2 observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 in conjunction with estimates of gross primary production and fire carbon emissions. Our analysis reveals that the close-to-normal atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2021 was the result of the compensation between increased net carbon uptake over the tropics and reduced net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Specifically, we identify that the extreme drought and warm anomalies in Europe and Asia reduced the net carbon uptake and offset 72% of the increased net carbon uptake over the tropics in 2021. This study contributes to our broader understanding of how regional processes can shape the trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration under climate change.

Soil respiration-driven CO2 pulses dominate Australia's flux variability.

The Australian continent contributes substantially to the year-to-year variability of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. However, the scarcity of in situ observations in remote areas prevents the deciphering of processes that force the CO2 flux variability. In this study, by examining atmospheric CO2 measurements from satellites in the period 2009-2018, we find recurrent end-of-dry-season CO2 pulses over the Australian continent. These pulses largely control the year-to-year variability of Australia's CO2 balance. They cause two to three times larger seasonal variations compared with previous top-down inversions and bottom-up estimates. The pulses occur shortly after the onset of rainfall and are driven by enhanced soil respiration preceding photosynthetic uptake in Australia's semiarid regions. The suggested continental-scale relevance of soil-rewetting processes has substantial implications for our understanding and modeling of global climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators.

Humans have significantly altered the energy balance of the Earth's climate system mainly not only by extracting and burning fossil fuels but also by altering the biosphere and using halocarbons. The 3rd US National Climate Assessment pointed to a need for a system of indicators of climate and global change based on long-term data that could be used to support assessments and this led to the development of the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). Here we identify a representative set of key atmospheric indicators of changes in atmospheric radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and we evaluate atmospheric composition measurements, including non-CO2 GHGs for use as climate change indicators in support of the US National Climate Assessment. GHG abundances and their changes over time can provide valuable information on the success of climate mitigation policies, as well as insights into possible carbon-climate feedback processes that may ultimately affect the success of those policies. To ensure that reliable information for assessing GHG emission changes can be provided on policy-relevant scales, expanded observational efforts are needed. Furthermore, the ability to detect trends resulting from changing emissions requires a commitment to supporting long-term observations. Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds and related climate indicators used with a dimming/brightening index could provide a foundation for quantifying forcing and its attribution and reducing error in existing indicators that do not account for complicated cloud processes.

Regional impacts of COVID-19 on carbon dioxide detected worldwide from space.

Activity reductions in early 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic led to unprecedented decreases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Despite their record size, the resulting atmospheric signals are smaller than and obscured by climate variability in atmospheric transport and biospheric fluxes, notably that related to the 2019­2020 Indian Ocean Dipole. Monitoring CO2 anomalies and distinguishing human and climatic causes thus remain a new frontier in Earth system science. We show that the impact of short-term regional changes in fossil fuel emissions on CO2 concentrations was observable from space. Starting in February and continuing through May, column CO2 over many of the world's largest emitting regions was 0.14 to 0.62 parts per million less than expected in a pandemic-free scenario, consistent with reductions of 3 to 13% in annual global emissions. Current spaceborne technologies are therefore approaching levels of accuracy and precision needed to support climate mitigation strategies with future missions expected to meet those needs.

Global atmospheric CO2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate.

We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical (NET) vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid-Pacific in 2009-2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their broad latitudinal separation of land fluxes has converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom 3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80% since TransCom 3 and 70% since RECCAP. Most modeled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, specifically for the annual mean vertical gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical (T) annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives northern extratropical land uptake that is modest relative to previous estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013) and near-neutral tropical land uptake for 2009-2011. Given estimates of emissions from deforestation, this implies a continued uptake in intact tropical forests that is strong relative to historical estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013). The results from these models for other time periods (2004-2014, 2001-2004, 1992-1996) and reevaluation of the TransCom 3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirm that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean-land partitioning. The fossil fuel (FF) and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they currently limit our ability to assess regional-scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean-land partitioning from the model ensemble.

Enhanced North American carbon uptake associated with El Niño.

Long-term atmospheric CO2 mole fraction and δ13CO2 observations over North America document persistent responses to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We estimate these responses corresponded to 0.61 (0.45 to 0.79) PgC year-1 more North American carbon uptake during El Niño than during La Niña between 2007 and 2015, partially offsetting increases of net tropical biosphere-to-atmosphere carbon flux around El Niño. Anomalies in derived North American net ecosystem exchange (NEE) display strong but opposite correlations with surface air temperature between seasons, while their correlation with water availability was more constant throughout the year, such that water availability is the dominant control on annual NEE variability over North America. These results suggest that increased water availability and favorable temperature conditions (warmer spring and cooler summer) caused enhanced carbon uptake over North America near and during El Niño.

Transforming complex multistability to controlled monostability.

Multistability, a commonly observed feature among nonlinear systems, could be inconvenient under various circumstances. We demonstrate that a control in the form of slow and weak periodic parameter modulation can be effectively applied to transform a complex multistable system to a controlled monostable one. For the representative of a nonlinear system, we choose the Hénon map as the standard model. The number of coexisting stable states is known to increase as the dissipativity reduces. We show that even in the low dissipative limit, when the number of coexisting states could be arbitrarily large, the periodic parameter modulation can destroy the states coexisting with stable period 1. Thus, the system can be brought from any other branch to period-1 branch, leading to controlled monostability. This method works in the presence of noise as well.

Self-similar organization of Gavrilov-Silnikov-Newhouse sinks.

The numerical analyses of the Hénon map suggest the following features. As we increase the value of the control parameter around each stable period of the period-1 branch, an infinitely large series of period n-tupled saddle nodes appears in the following sequence (n= ...,5,4,3). The limit of each series is the infinitely large set of homoclinic points, created at the homoclinic tangency for the respective flip saddle (boundary saddle in the case of period 1). These observations are in good agreement with the predictions of Gavrilov, Silnikov, and Robinson. Each newly created sink, referred to as Gavrilov-Silnikov (GS) sink, later constitutes a first-order secondary cascade. The flip (boundary) saddles of these cascades also exhibit homoclinic tangency. Past such tangency, around the respective GS sink, an infinitely large series of period n-tupled saddle nodes (n= ...,5,4,3) seems to appear in a similar manner. The newly created GS sinks later constitute second-order secondary cascades. These phenomena, comprised of the homoclinic tangency of a flip (boundary) saddle, followed by the sequential appearance of an infinitely large sequence of period n-tupled saddle nodes around the respective GS sink, appear to recur in a self-similar manner, creating higher-order and further higher-order GS sinks and the associated secondary cascades. Each secondary cascade survives within a small subinterval of the control parameter window where the respective GS sink from the immediate lower-order secondary cascade exists. These processes appear to continue ad infinitum. Therefore, in the limiting conditions, an infinitely large sequence of sinks may simultaneously coexist in the phase space for an infinitely large number of control parameter values. These observations are in good agreement with the predictions of Newhouse. Thus, the GS sinks may be identified as Gavrilov-Silnikov-Newhouse (GSN) sinks that are organized in a self-similar manner in the phase and parameter space. These features are very similar to those we recently observed in a periodically forced, damped Toda oscillator [B. K. Goswami, Phys. Rev. E 62, 2068 (2000)]. Since, the Hénon map and Toda oscillator are standard models (one from the maps and the other from the oscillators), our observations may provide some strong evidences towards universality in the self-similar organization of GSN sinks in the low-dissipative limit.

Final-state effects in the radio frequency spectrum of strongly interacting fermions.

We model the impact of final-state interactions on the radio frequency spectrum of a strongly interacting two-component superfluid Fermi gas. In addition to a broad asymmetric peak coming from the breakup of Cooper pairs, we find that, for appropriate parameters, one can observe a sharp symmetric "bound-bound" spectral line coming from the conversion of Cooper pairs in one channel to pairs or molecules in another.