Clinical utility of the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in biopsy-confirmed coeliac disease.

BACKGROUND: People with coeliac disease (CD) are at increased risk of osteoporosis and fractures. Currently, baseline dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is recommended for all patients with newly diagnosed CD. We aimed to determine the prevalence of osteoporosis and the clinical utility of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) in predicting major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) in patients with biopsy-proven CD. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data for consecutive adult patients with biopsy-proven CD between 2001 and 2015 who underwent DXA scanning within 1 year of diagnosis and were followed up for a minimum of 7 years. Fracture risk was assessed using FRAX scores, and the incidence of major osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period was analysed. RESULTS: A total of 593 patients (median age 45.0 years, 68.5% female) were included. The prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis were 32.3% and 14.5%, respectively. Increasing age (OR 1.06, p < .0001), decreasing BMI (OR 0.90, p = .003), and higher baseline immunoglobulin A-tissue tissue transglutaminase titre (OR 1.04, p = .03) were significantly associated with increased risk of osteoporosis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the FRAX tool to predict MOF were 21.2%, 91.3%, 16.3%, 93.5%, respectively. A higher risk of fractures was associated with ongoing gluten exposure (OR 1.86, p = .02), previous fractures (OR 2.69, p = .005), and older age (OR 1.03, p < .0001). CONCLUSION: Osteoporosis is a common finding in patients with CD. The FRAX tool showed high specificity in predicting osteoporotic fractures and could be used to aid with patient selection for DXA scanning in some cases.

Computer model for the cardiovascular system: development of an e-learning tool for teaching of medical students.

BACKGROUND: This study combined themes in cardiovascular modelling, clinical cardiology and e-learning to create an on-line environment that would assist undergraduate medical students in understanding key physiological and pathophysiological processes in the cardiovascular system. METHODS: An interactive on-line environment was developed incorporating a lumped-parameter mathematical model of the human cardiovascular system. The model outputs were used to characterise the progression of key disease processes and allowed students to classify disease severity with the aim of improving their understanding of abnormal physiology in a clinical context. Access to the on-line environment was offered to students at all stages of undergraduate training as an adjunct to routine lectures and tutorials in cardiac pathophysiology. Student feedback was collected on this novel on-line material in the course of routine audits of teaching delivery. RESULTS: Medical students, irrespective of their stage of undergraduate training, reported that they found the models and the environment interesting and a positive experience. After exposure to the environment, there was a statistically significant improvement in student performance on a series of 6 questions based on cardiovascular medicine, with a 33% and 22% increase in the number of questions answered correctly, p < 0.0001 and p < 0.001 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Considerable improvement was found in students' knowledge and understanding during assessment after exposure to the e-learning environment. Opportunities exist for development of similar environments in other fields of medicine, refinement of the existing environment and further engagement with student cohorts. This work combines some exciting and developing fields in medical education, but routine adoption of these types of tool will be possible only with the engagement of all stake-holders, from educationalists, clinicians, modellers to, most importantly, medical students.

A framework for different levels of integration of computational models into web-based virtual patients.

BACKGROUND: Virtual patients are increasingly common tools used in health care education to foster learning of clinical reasoning skills. One potential way to expand their functionality is to augment virtual patients' interactivity by enriching them with computational models of physiological and pathological processes. OBJECTIVE: The primary goal of this paper was to propose a conceptual framework for the integration of computational models within virtual patients, with particular focus on (1) characteristics to be addressed while preparing the integration, (2) the extent of the integration, (3) strategies to achieve integration, and (4) methods for evaluating the feasibility of integration. An additional goal was to pilot the first investigation of changing framework variables on altering perceptions of integration. METHODS: The framework was constructed using an iterative process informed by Soft System Methodology. The Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) initiative has been used as a source of new computational models. The technical challenges associated with development of virtual patients enhanced by computational models are discussed from the perspectives of a number of different stakeholders. Concrete design and evaluation steps are discussed in the context of an exemplar virtual patient employing the results of the VPH ARCH project, as well as improvements for future iterations. RESULTS: The proposed framework consists of four main elements. The first element is a list of feasibility features characterizing the integration process from three perspectives: the computational modelling researcher, the health care educationalist, and the virtual patient system developer. The second element included three integration levels: basic, where a single set of simulation outcomes is generated for specific nodes in the activity graph; intermediate, involving pre-generation of simulation datasets over a range of input parameters; advanced, including dynamic solution of the model. The third element is the description of four integration strategies, and the last element consisted of evaluation profiles specifying the relevant feasibility features and acceptance thresholds for specific purposes. The group of experts who evaluated the virtual patient exemplar found higher integration more interesting, but at the same time they were more concerned with the validity of the result. The observed differences were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: This paper outlines a framework for the integration of computational models into virtual patients. The opportunities and challenges of model exploitation are discussed from a number of user perspectives, considering different levels of model integration. The long-term aim for future research is to isolate the most crucial factors in the framework and to determine their influence on the integration outcome.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence following the first pandemic wave in UK healthcare workers in a large NHS Foundation Trust.

Background: We aimed to measure SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in a cohort of healthcare workers (HCWs) during the first UK wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, explore risk factors associated with infection, and investigate the impact of antibody titres on assay sensitivity. Methods: HCWs at Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust were prospectively enrolled and sampled at two time points. We developed an in-house ELISA for testing participant serum for SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA reactivity against Spike and Nucleoprotein. Data were analysed using three statistical models: a seroprevalence model, an antibody kinetics model, and a heterogeneous sensitivity model. Results: Our in-house assay had a sensitivity of 99·47% and specificity of 99·56%. We found that 24·4% (n=311/1275) of HCWs were seropositive as of 12th June 2020. Of these, 39·2% (n=122/311) were asymptomatic. The highest adjusted seroprevalence was measured in HCWs on the Acute Medical Unit (41·1%, 95% CrI 30·0-52·9) and in Physiotherapists and Occupational Therapists (39·2%, 95% CrI 24·4-56·5). Older age groups showed overall higher median antibody titres. Further modelling suggests that, for a serological assay with an overall sensitivity of 80%, antibody titres may be markedly affected by differences in age, with sensitivity estimates of 89% in those over 60 years but 61% in those ≤30 years. Conclusions:  HCWs in acute medical units and those working closely with COVID-19 patients were at highest risk of infection, though whether these are infections acquired from patients or other staff is unknown. Current serological assays may underestimate seroprevalence in younger age groups if validated using sera from older and/or more severe COVID-19 cases.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence following the first pandemic wave in UK healthcare workers in a large NHS Foundation Trust.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to measure SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in a cohort of healthcare workers (HCWs) during the first UK wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, explore risk factors associated with infection, and investigate the impact of antibody titres on assay sensitivity. METHODS: HCWs at Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (STH) were prospectively enrolled and sampled at two time points. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were tested using an in-house assay for IgG and IgA reactivity against Spike and Nucleoprotein (sensitivity 99·47%, specificity 99·56%). Data were analysed using three statistical models: a seroprevalence model, an antibody kinetics model, and a heterogeneous sensitivity model. FINDINGS: As of 12th June 2020, 24·4% (n=311/1275) HCWs were seropositive. Of these, 39·2% (n=122/311) were asymptomatic. The highest adjusted seroprevalence was measured in HCWs on the Acute Medical Unit (41·1%, 95% CrI 30·0-52·9) and in Physiotherapists and Occupational Therapists (39·2%, 95% CrI 24·4-56·5). Older age groups showed overall higher median antibody titres. Further modelling suggests that, for a serological assay with an overall sensitivity of 80%, antibody titres may be markedly affected by differences in age, with sensitivity estimates of 89% in those over 60 years but 61% in those ≤30 years. INTERPRETATION: HCWs in acute medical units working closely with COVID-19 patients were at highest risk of infection, though whether these are infections acquired from patients or other staff is unknown. Current serological assays may underestimate seroprevalence in younger age groups if validated using sera from older and/or more symptomatic individuals. RESEARCH IN CONTEXT: Evidence before this study: We searched PubMed for studies published up to March 6th 2021, using the terms "COVID", "SARS-CoV-2", "seroprevalence", and "healthcare workers", and in addition for articles of antibody titres in different age groups against coronaviruses using "coronavirus", "SARS-CoV-2, "antibody", "antibody tires", "COVID" and "age". We included studies that used serology to estimate prevalence in healthcare workers. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence has been shown to be greater in healthcare workers working on acute medical units or within domestic services. Antibody levels against seasonal coronaviruses, SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were found to be higher in older adults, and patients who were hospitalised.Added value of this study: In this healthcare worker seroprevalence modelling study at a large NHS foundation trust, we confirm that those working on acute medical units, COVID-19 "Red Zones" and within domestic services are most likely to be seropositive. Furthermore, we show that physiotherapists and occupational therapists have an increased risk of COVID-19 infection. We also confirm that antibody titres are greater in older individuals, even in the context of non-hospitalised cases. Importantly, we demonstrate that this can result in age-specific sensitivity in serological assays, where lower antibody titres in younger individuals results in lower assay sensitivity.Implications of all the available evidence: There are distinct occupational roles and locations in hospitals where the risk of COVID-19 infection to healthcare workers is greatest, and this knowledge should be used to prioritise infection prevention control and other measures to protect healthcare workers. Serological assays may have different sensitivity profiles across different age groups, especially if assay validation was undertaken using samples from older and/or hospitalised patients, who tend to have higher antibody titres. Future seroprevalence studies should consider adjusting for age-specific assay sensitivities to estimate true seroprevalence rates.

A fourier fingerprint-based method for protein surface representation.

A crucial enabling technology for structural genomics is the development of algorithms that can predict the putative function of novel protein structures: the proposed functions can subsequently be experimentally tested by functional studies. Testable assignments of function can be made if it is possible to attribute a putative, or indeed probable, function on the basis of the shapes of the binding sites on the surface of a protein structure. However the comparison of the surfaces of 3D protein structures is a computationally demanding task. Here we present four surface representations that can be used locally to describe the global shape of specifically bounded local region models. The most successful of these representations is obtained by a Fourier analysis of the distribution of surface curvature on concentric spheres around a surface point and summarizes a 24 A diameter spherically clipped region of protein surface by a fingerprint of 18 Fourier amplitude values. Searching experiments using these fingerprints on a set of 366 proteins demonstrate that this provides an effective and an efficient technique for the matching of protein surfaces.