The Influence of Weather on the Incidence of Primary Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Intracerebral hemorrhage has been associated with changes in various weather conditions. The primary aim of this study was to examine the collective influence of temperature, barometric pressure, and dew point temperature on the incidence of primary spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH). METHODS: Between January 2013 and December 2016, patients with sICH due to hypertension or amyloid angiopathy with a known time of onset were identified prospectively. Meteorological variables 6 hours prior to time of onset were obtained from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration via two weather stations. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation, random populations of meteorological conditions in a 6-hour time window during the same years were generated. The actual meteorological conditions 6-hours prior to sICH were compared to those from the randomly generated populations. The false discovery rate method was used to identify significant meteorological variables. RESULTS: Time of onset was identified in 455 of 603 (75.5%) patients. Distribution curves for change in temperature, mean barometric pressure, and change in barometric pressure 6-hours prior to hemorrhage ictus were found to be significantly different from the random populations. (FDR approach P < .05). For a given change in temperature associated with intracerebral hemorrhage, mean barometric pressure was higher (1018 millibar (mb) versus 1016 mb, P = .03). Barometric pressure data was not influenced by variations in temperature. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that barometric pressure primarily influences the incidence of intracerebral hemorrhage. The association described in the literature between temperature and intracerebral hemorrhage is likely confounded by variations in barometric pressure.

Bark beetle impacts on forest evapotranspiration and its partitioning.

Insect outbreaks affect forest structure and function and represent a major category of forest disturbance globally. However, the resulting impacts on evapotranspiration (ET), and especially hydrological partitioning between the abiotic (evaporation) and biotic (transpiration) components of total ET, are not well constrained. As a result, we combined remote sensing, eddy covariance, and hydrological modeling approaches to determine the effects of bark beetle outbreak on ET and its partitioning at multiple scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion (SRME), USA. At the eddy covariance measurement scale, 85 % of the forest was affected by beetles, and water year ET as a fraction of precipitation (P) decreased by 30 % relative to a control site, with 31 % greater reductions in growing season transpiration relative to total ET. At the ecoregion scale, satellite remote sensing masked to areas of >80 % tree mortality showed corresponding ET/P reductions of 9-15 % that occurred 6-8 years post-disturbance, and indicated that the majority of the total reduction occurred during the growing season; the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model showed an associated 9-18 % increase in the ecoregion runoff ratio. Long-term (16-18 year) ET and vegetation mortality datasets extend the length of previously published analyses and allowed for clear characterization of the forest recovery period. During that time, transpiration recovery outpaced total ET recovery, which was lagged in part due to persistently reduced winter sublimation, and there was associated evidence of increasing late summer vegetation moisture stress. Overall, comparison of three independent methods and two partitioning approaches demonstrated a net negative impact of bark beetles on ET, and a relatively greater negative impact on transpiration, following bark beetle outbreak in the SRME.

Combining Anthropometry and Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis to Predict Body Fat in Female Athletes.

CONTEXT: Accurate methods for predicting the percentage of body fat (%Fat) in female athletes are needed for those who lose weight before competition. Methods mandated by sport governing bodies for minimal weight determination in such athletes lack validation. OBJECTIVE: To (1) determine whether combining anthropometry using skinfold (SF) thicknesses and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) in a 3-compartment (3C) model would improve the prediction of %Fat in female athletes and (2) evaluate the Slaughter SF equation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Laboratory-based study during the preseason for collegiate sports. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 18 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I female athletes were recruited from swim and gymnastics teams. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): We measured %Fat based on a 4-compartment (4C) criterion incorporating body density (air-displacement plethysmography), total body water (D2O dilution), and bone mineral mass (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry) compared with predicted %Fat using SF alone (Slaughter equation), BIA (single frequency for total body water estimate), and combined SF and BIA (3C model). RESULTS: For the %Fat determined using the 4C criterion, the highest adjusted coefficient of determination and lowest prediction error (r2; ±standard error of estimate) were for the 3C model (r2 = 0.87; ±2.8%), followed by BIA (r2 = 0.80; ±3.5%) and SF (r2 = 0.76; ±3.8%; P values < .05 for all). Means differed for the %Fat determined using BIA (26.6% ± 7.5%) and the 3C (25.5% ± 7.2%) versus 4C model (23.5% ± 7.4%; analysis of variance and post hoc analyses: P values < .05). The SF estimate (24.0% ± 7.8%) did not differ from the 4C value. CONCLUSIONS: Combining SF and BIA might improve the prediction and lower the prediction error for determining the %Fat in female athletes compared with using SF or BIA separately. Regardless, the Slaughter equation for SF appeared to be accurate for determining the mean %Fat in these female athletes.

High sensitivity of Bering Sea winter sea ice to winter insolation and carbon dioxide over the last 5500 years.

Anomalously low winter sea ice extent and early retreat in CE 2018 and 2019 challenge previous notions that winter sea ice in the Bering Sea has been stable over the instrumental record, although long-term records remain limited. Here, we use a record of peat cellulose oxygen isotopes from St. Matthew Island along with isotope-enabled general circulation model (IsoGSM) simulations to generate a 5500-year record of Bering Sea winter sea ice extent. Results show that over the last 5500 years, sea ice in the Bering Sea decreased in response to increasing winter insolation and atmospheric CO2, suggesting that the North Pacific is highly sensitive to small changes in radiative forcing. We find that CE 2018 sea ice conditions were the lowest of the last 5500 years, and results suggest that sea ice loss may lag changes in CO2 concentrations by several decades.

Role of climate in the rise and fall of the Neo-Assyrian Empire.

Northern Iraq was the political and economic center of the Neo-Assyrian Empire (c. 912 to 609 BCE)-the largest and most powerful empire of its time. After more than two centuries of regional dominance, the Neo-Assyrian state plummeted from its zenith (c. 670 BCE) to complete political collapse (c. 615 to 609 BCE). Earlier explanations for the Assyrian collapse focused on the roles of internal politico-economic conflicts, territorial overextension, and military defeat. Here, we present a high-resolution and precisely dated speleothem record of climate change from the Kuna Ba cave in northern Iraq, which suggests that the empire's rise occurred during a two-centuries-long interval of anomalously wet climate in the context of the past 4000 years, while megadroughts during the early-mid seventh century BCE, as severe as recent droughts in the region but lasting for decades, triggered a decline in Assyria's agrarian productivity and thus contributed to its eventual political and economic collapse.

A global database of water vapor isotopes measured with high temporal resolution infrared laser spectroscopy.

The isotopic composition of water vapour provides integrated perspectives on the hydrological histories of air masses and has been widely used for tracing physical processes in hydrological and climatic studies. Over the last two decades, the infrared laser spectroscopy technique has been used to measure the isotopic composition of water vapour near the Earth's surface. Here, we have assembled a global database of high temporal resolution stable water vapour isotope ratios (δ18O and δD) observed using this measurement technique. As of March 2018, the database includes data collected at 35 sites in 15 Köppen climate zones from the years 2004 to 2017. The key variables in each dataset are hourly values of δ18O and δD in atmospheric water vapour. To support interpretation of the isotopologue data, synchronized time series of standard meteorological variables from in situ observations and ERA5 reanalyses are also provided. This database is intended to serve as a centralized platform allowing researchers to share their vapour isotope datasets, thus facilitating investigations that transcend disciplinary and geographic boundaries.

Stable isotopes in the atmospheric marine boundary layer water vapour over the Atlantic Ocean, 2012-2015.

The water vapour isotopic composition (1H216O, H218O and 1H2H16O) of the Atlantic marine boundary layer has been measured from 5 research vessels between 2012 and 2015. Using laser spectroscopy analysers, measurements have been carried out continuously on samples collected 10-20 meter above sea level. All the datasets have been carefully calibrated against the international VSMOW-SLAP scale following the same protocol to build a homogeneous dataset covering the Atlantic Ocean between 4°S to 63°N. In addition, standard meteorological variables have been measured continuously, including sea surface temperatures using calibrated Thermo-Salinograph for most cruises. All calibrated observations are provided with 15-minute resolution. We also provide 6-hourly data to allow easier comparisons with simulations from the isotope-enabled Global Circulation Models. In addition, backwards trajectories from the HYSPLIT model are supplied every 6-hours for the position of our measurements.

Surface-atmosphere decoupling limits accumulation at Summit, Greenland.

Despite rapid melting in the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant area (~40%) of the ice sheet rarely experiences surface melting. In these regions, the controls on annual accumulation are poorly constrained owing to surface conditions (for example, surface clouds, blowing snow, and surface inversions), which render moisture flux estimates from myriad approaches (that is, eddy covariance, remote sensing, and direct observations) highly uncertain. Accumulation is partially determined by the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure, which influences the maximum humidity of air parcels reaching the ice sheet interior. However, independent proxies for surface temperature and accumulation from ice cores show that the response of accumulation to temperature is variable and not generally consistent with a purely thermodynamic control. Using three years of stable water vapor isotope profiles from a high altitude site on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we show that as the boundary layer becomes increasingly stable, a decoupling between the ice sheet and atmosphere occurs. The limited interaction between the ice sheet surface and free tropospheric air reduces the capacity for surface condensation to achieve the rate set by the humidity of the air parcels reaching interior Greenland. The isolation of the surface also acts to recycle sublimated moisture by recondensing it onto fog particles, which returns the moisture back to the surface through gravitational settling. The observations highlight a unique mechanism by which ice sheet mass is conserved, which has implications for understanding both past and future changes in accumulation rate and the isotopic signal in ice cores from Greenland.

Trends and oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia.

Observations show that summer rainfall over large parts of South Asia has declined over the past five to six decades. It remains unclear, however, whether this trend is due to natural variability or increased anthropogenic aerosol loading over South Asia. Here we use stable oxygen isotopes in speleothems from northern India to reconstruct variations in Indian monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia. We find that within the long-term context of our record, the current drying trend is not outside the envelope of monsoon's oscillatory variability, albeit at the lower edge of this variance. Furthermore, the magnitude of multi-decadal oscillatory variability in monsoon rainfall inferred from our proxy record is comparable to model estimates of anthropogenic-forced trends of mean monsoon rainfall in the 21st century under various emission scenarios. Our results suggest that anthropogenic-forced changes in monsoon rainfall will remain difficult to detect against a backdrop of large natural variability.