Performances of HEART score to predict 6-month prognostic of emergency department patients with chest pain: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Chest pain is a frequent cause of patient admissions in emergency departments (EDs). Clinical scores can help in the management of chest pain patients with an undefined impact on the appropriateness of hospitalization or discharge when compared to usual care. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the performances of the HEART score to predict the 6-month prognostic of patients presenting to the ED of a tertiary referral university hospital with non-traumatic chest pain. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: From 7040 patients presenting with chest pain from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017, after applying exclusion criteria (ST-segment elevation >1 mm, shock, absence of telephone number) we selected a sample of 20% chosen randomly. We retrospectively assessed the clinical course, definitive diagnosis, and HEART score according to ED final report. Follow-up was made by telephone interview with discharged patients. In hospitalized patients, clinical records were analyzed to evaluate major adverse cardiac events (MACE) incidence. OUTCOME MEASURE AND ANALYSIS: The primary endpoint was MACE, comprising cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or unscheduled revascularization at 6 months. We assessed the diagnostic performance of the HEART score in ruling out MACE at 6 months. We also assessed the performance of ED usual care in the management of chest pain patients. RESULTS: Of 1119 screened, 1099 were included for analysis after excluding patients lost to follow-up; 788 patients (71.70%) had been discharged and 311 (28.30%) were hospitalized. Incident MACE was 18.3% ( n  = 205). The HEART score was retrospectively calculated in 1047 patients showing increasing MACE incidence according to risk category (0.98% for low risk, 38.02% for intermediate risk, and 62.21% for high risk). Low-risk category allowed to safely exclude MACE at 6 months with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99%. Usual care diagnostic performance showed 97.38% sensitivity, 98.24% specificity, 95.5% positive predictive value, and 99% NPV, with an overall accuracy of 98.00%. CONCLUSIONS: In ED patients with chest pain, a low HEART score is associated with a very low risk of MACE at 6 months.

The influence of local factors on the prediction of fumonisin contamination in maize.

BACKGROUND: Contamination by mycotoxins is a major concern to the maize industry in north-east Italy where maize grain is often spoiled by Fusarium spp. In this work, fumonisins, deoxynivalenol and zearalenone were determined and an artificial neural network (ANN) model suitable for predicting mycotoxin contamination of maize at harvest time was developed. RESULTS: The occurrence of deoxynivalenol and zearalenone was very limited, while fumonisins concentration ranged from 163 and to 3663 µg kg(-1) in 2007, and from 333 to 11473 µg kg(-1) in 2008. Statistical data analysis of factors affecting fumonisins concentration revealed that irrigation, chemical treatment against the European corn borer and harvest date significantly affected the level of contamination (P < 0.05), although the relevance of the factors was different in 2007 and 2008. The neural network approach showed a significant correlation between ascertained values and predictions based on agronomic data. CONCLUSION: This is the first time that an artificial neural network has been used to predict fumonisin accumulation in maize: the prediction has been shown to have the potential for the development of a new approach for the rapid cataloging of grain lots.

Role of cardiological specialistic evaluation in patients with chest pain presenting in the emergency department.

AIMS: Aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of cardiological and echocardiographic evaluation in addition to a standard clinical and instrumental approach on diagnostic and prognostic accuracy in patients presenting in the emergency department (ED) with chest pain (CP). Acute coronary syndromes, pulmonary embolism and acute aortic syndromes (AAS) (triple-rule-out/TRO) were considered. METHODS: From 7040 patients presenting with CP from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017, we randomly selected a sample of 1119. We retrospectively evaluated the clinical course and definitive diagnosis according to the ED final report. A 6-month follow-up to assess incident acute cardiovascular events was made by telephone interview in discharged patients; in hospitalized patients, clinical records were analyzed to evaluate the appropriateness of admissions. Diagnostic and prognostic accuracy wasd estimated through sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, according to the presence or absence of cardiological and echocardiographic consultation. RESULTS: Complete information of 1099 patients out of 1119 was retrieved. Seven hundred and eighty-eight patients (71.70%) had been discharged, eight inappropriately (0.73%). Three hundred eleven (28.30%) had been hospitalized, 14 (1.27%) inappropriately. Diagnostic performance showed 97.38% sensitivity, 98.24% specificity, 95.5% PPV and 99% NPV, with an overall accuracy of 98.00%. In patients evaluated by the cardiologist in addition to the ED physician (n = 387) we observed an improvement of sensitivity and NPV at the expense of specificity. Among improperly discharged patients, 7/8 had normal troponin, 7/8 normal ECG and only 1 was evaluated by a cardiologist. Only one inappropriately hospitalized patient was not evaluated by a cardiologist. CONCLUSIONS: Early consultation with a cardiologist and echocardiography improves clinical judgment in doubtful cases of CP, increasing diagnostic performance mainly by reducing inappropriate patient discharge and guaranteeing a low rate of inappropriate hospitalizations.