Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's glaciers.

Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people, and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change at similar rates to those seen elsewhere. In the Paris Agreement of 2015, 195 nations agreed on the aspiration to limit the level of global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius ( °C) above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not known what an increase of 1.5 °C would mean for the glaciers in HMA. Here we show that a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C will lead to a warming of 2.1 ± 0.1 °C in HMA, and that 64 ± 7 per cent of the present-day ice mass stored in the HMA glaciers will remain by the end of the century. The 1.5 °C goal is extremely ambitious and is projected by only a small number of climate models of the conservative IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 ensemble. Projections for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 reveal that much of the glacier ice is likely to disappear, with projected mass losses of 49 ± 7 per cent, 51 ± 6 per cent and 64 ± 5 per cent, respectively, by the end of the century; these projections have potentially serious consequences for regional water management and mountain communities.

The multitarget fecal immunochemical test versus the fecal immunochemical test for programmatic colorectal cancer screening: a cross-sectional intervention study with paired design.

BACKGROUND: Many screening programs for colorectal cancer (CRC) use the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) to triage individuals for colonoscopy. Although these programs reduce CRC incidence and CRC-related mortality, the detection of advanced precursor lesions (advanced adenomas and advanced serrated polyps) by FIT could be improved. As an alternative for FIT, the antibody-based multitargetFIT (mtFIT) has been proposed. The mtFIT measures three protein markers: hemoglobin, calprotectin, and serpin family F member 2. In a retrospective diagnostic accuracy study in a large colonoscopy-controlled series (n = 1284), mtFIT showed increased sensitivity for advanced neoplasia (AN), at equal specificity, compared to FIT (42.9% versus 37.3%; p = 0.025). This increase was mainly due to a higher sensitivity of mtFIT for advanced adenomas (37.8% versus 28.1% for FIT; p = 0.006). The present mtFIT study aims to prospectively validate these findings in the context of the Dutch national CRC screening program. METHOD: The mtFIT study is a cross-sectional intervention study with a paired design. Eligible subjects for the Dutch FIT-based national CRC screening program are invited to perform mtFIT in addition to FIT. Samples are collected at home, from the same bowel movement, and are shipped to a central laboratory by postal mail. If either one or both tests are positive, participants are referred for colonoscopy. Detailed colonoscopy and pathology data are centrally stored in a national screening database (ScreenIT; Topicus, Deventer, the Netherlands) that is managed by the screening organization, and will be retrieved for this study. We aim to determine the relative sensitivity for AN, comprising of CRC, advanced adenomas and advanced serrated polyps, of mtFIT compared to FIT at an equal positivity rate. Additionally, we will use the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer model to predict lifetime health effects and costs for programmatic mtFIT- versus FIT-based screening. The target sample size is 13,131 participants. DISCUSSION: The outcome of this study will inform on the comparative clinical utility of mtFIT versus FIT in the Dutch national CRC screening program and is an important step forward in the development of a new non-invasive stool test for CRC screening. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov ; NCT05314309, registered April 6th 2022, first inclusions March 25th 2022 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=NCT05314309&cntry=&state=&city=&dist =.

Assessment of the optimal time interval for repeated soil surveys at intensively monitored forest plots.

Statistical methods were developed to assess required changes in the contents and pools of major nutrients and exchangeable base cations in the organic layer and the mineral soil of European forest soils, to derive significant differences. Furthermore a simple element retention model is described and applied to assess the variation time periods, as a function of site and soil characteristics and atmospheric inputs, that are needed before repeating soil surveys in order to assess significant differences in element pools. Time periods that are needed to assess a significant difference have been limited to N in the organic layer and base cations in the mineral layer, since those pools are liable to change caused by nitrogen or acid deposition. Results showed that a time interval of 10 years, which is generally considered for a repetition of the soil survey, might give a significant difference in N and exchangeable base cation pools for approximately 25% and 10% of the plots, only.

Global potential for the growth of fresh groundwater resources with large beach nourishments.

Whether a coastal area is suitable for beach nourishments and can induce a growth in fresh groundwater resources depends on the appropriateness of the intended site for beach nourishments, and the attainable growth in fresh groundwater resources. In this study we presume that all eroding sandy beaches are suitable for large beach nourishments, and focus on the impact of these nourishments on fresh groundwater in various coastal settings. The growth in fresh groundwater resources - as a consequence of the construction of a beach nourishment - was quantified with 2-D variable-density groundwater models, for a global range in geological parameters and hydrological processes. Our simulation results suggest that large beach nourishments will likely lead to a (temporary) increase of fresh groundwater resources in most settings. However, for a substantial growth in fresh groundwater, the coastal site should receive sufficient groundwater recharge, consist of sediment with a low to medium hydraulic conductivity, and be subject to a limited number of land-surface inundations. Our global analysis shows that 17% of shorelines may consist of erosive sandy beaches, and of these sites 50% have a high potential suitability. This shows a considerable potential worldwide to combine coastal protection with an increase in fresh groundwater resources.

Demonstrating trend reversal of groundwater quality in relation to time of recharge determined by 3H/3He.

Recent EU legislation is directed to reverse the upward trends in the concentrations of agricultural pollutants in groundwater. However, uncertainty of the groundwater travel time towards the screens of the groundwater quality monitoring networks complicates the demonstration of trend reversal. We investigated whether trend reversal can be demonstrated by relating concentrations of pollutants in groundwater to the time of recharge, instead of the time of sampling. To do so, we used the travel time to monitoring screens in sandy agricultural areas in the Netherlands, determined by (3)H/(3)He groundwater dating. We observed that concentrations of conservative pollutants increased in groundwater recharged before 1985 and decreased after 1990. Thereby, we demonstrated trend reversal of groundwater quality. From this research we concluded that (3)H/(3)He dating can be used to facilitate (re)interpretation of existing groundwater quality data. The presented approach is widely applicable in areas with unconsolidated granular aquifers and large agricultural pressures on groundwater resources.

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

A putative mechanism for bog patterning.

The surface of bogs commonly shows various spatial vegetation patterning. Typical are "string patterns" consisting of regular densely vegetated bands oriented perpendicular to the slope. Here, we report on regular "maze patterns" on flat ground, consisting of bands densely vegetated by vascular plants in a more sparsely vegetated matrix of nonvascular plant communities. We present a model reproducing these maze and string patterns, describing how nutrient-limited vascular plants are controlled by, and in turn control, both hydrology and solute transport. We propose that the patterns are self-organized and originate from a nutrient accumulation mechanism. In the model, this is caused by the convective transport of nutrients in the groundwater toward areas with higher vascular plant biomass, driven by differences in transpiration rate. In a numerical bifurcation analysis we show how the maze patterns originate from the spatially homogeneous equilibrium and how this is affected by changes in rainfall, nutrient input, and plant properties. Our results confirm earlier model results, showing that redistribution of a limiting resource may lead to fine-scale facilitative and coarse-scale competitive plant interactions in different ecosystems. Self-organization in ecosystems may be a more general phenomenon than previously thought, which can be mechanistically linked to scale-dependent facilitation and competition.

Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas.

The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future development of the glaciers and the runoff using an ensemble of downscaled climate model data in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. The analysis shows that both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase which results in a steady decline of the glacier area. The river flow is projected to increase significantly due to the increased precipitation and ice melt and the transition towards a rain river. Rain runoff and base flow will increase at the expense of glacier runoff. However, as the melt water peak coincides with the monsoon peak, no shifts in the hydrograph are expected.

Direct measurements of the tile drain and groundwater flow route contributions to surface water contamination: From field-scale concentration patterns in groundwater to catchment-scale surface water quality.

Enhanced knowledge of water and solute pathways in catchments would improve the understanding of dynamics in water quality and would support the selection of appropriate water pollution mitigation options. For this study, we physically separated tile drain effluent and groundwater discharge from an agricultural field before it entered a 43.5-m ditch transect. Through continuous discharge measurements and weekly water quality sampling, we directly quantified the flow route contributions to surface water discharge and solute loading. Our multi-scale experimental approach allowed us to relate these measurements to field-scale NO(3) concentration patterns in shallow groundwater and to continuous NO(3) records at the catchment outlet. Our results show that the tile drains contributed 90-92% of the annual NO(3) and heavy metal loads. Considering their crucial role in water and solute transport, enhanced monitoring and modeling of tile drainage are important for adequate water quality management.

Travel time distributions derived from particle tracking in models containing weak sinks.

A travel time distribution based on a particle-tracking analysis in a ground water model containing weak sinks is often uncertain because whether a particle is discharged or allowed to pass through a weak sink is unresolved by particle-tracking theory. We present a probability-based method to derive an objective travel time distribution in models containing weak sinks. The method discharges a fraction of the particle at the weak sink and allows the remaining fraction to pass through the weak sink. The weight of the discharged fraction depends on the ratio of the sink flux to the influx into the weak sink cell. We tested this approach on a coarse (100 x 100 m) and a fine (25 x 25 m) horizontal resolution regional scale ground water model (34.5 x 24 km). We compared the travel time distributions in a small subcatchment derived from particle-tracking analysis with one derived from a transport model. We found that the particle-tracking analysis with the coarse model underestimated the travel time distribution of the catchment compared to the transport solution or a particle-tracking analysis with the fine model. The underestimation of travel times with the coarse model was a result of a large area covered by sink cells in this model and the more accurate flow patterns simulated by the fine model. The probability-based method presented here compares favorably with a solute transport solution and provides an accurate travel time distribution when used with a fine-resolution ground water model.