High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Management of Congenital Heart Disease in Newborns and Infants.

BACKGROUND: Early cardiac interventions in newborns and infants suspected for congenital heart disease (CHD) decrease morbidity and mortality. After updating current evidence on the use of cardiac troponins (cTn) in the context of CHD for risk stratification at early ages, we discuss relevant issues, starting from the evidence that only the measurement of the cTnT form is useful in this population. CONTENT: In newborns/infants with CHD, the cTnT concentration increase is correlated with: (a) cardiac stress and hemodynamic parameters, but not with the type of CHD; (b) volume overload/right ventricular pressure overload; (c) postoperative hypoperfusion injury and mortality; and (d) effects of cardioprotective strategies. For infants with CHD, high-sensitivity cTnT (hs-cTnT) concentrations >25 ng/L are an independent predictor of poor outcomes. Transitioning from cTnT to hs-cTnT in newborns/infants improves the identification of: (a) physiopathological mechanisms and factors that increased hs-cTnT early after birth; (b) myocardial injury, even when subclinical; (c) identification of patients requiring immediate therapeutic interventions; and (d) 99th percentile upper reference limits (URLs). However, no reliable URLs are currently available to allow the detection of myocardial injury associated with CHD in newborns/infants. SUMMARY: Additional data evaluating the clinical value of hs-cTnT in the risk stratification of newborns/infants with CHD who may suffer myocardial injury is needed. Validating the measurement, possibly in amniotic fluid samples, and improving the interpretation of hs-cTnT concentrations in the prenatal period, at birth and within 1 year of age are crucial to change CHD mortality/morbidity trends in the pediatric population.

Striving for a pragmatic contribution of biomarkers results to lifelong health care.

BACKGROUND: The increased role of preventive medicine in healthcare and the rapid technological advancements, have deeply changed the landscape of laboratory medicine. In particular, increased investments in newborn screening tests and policies have been observed. Aim of this paper is to characterize how laboratory professionals engaged in clinical chemistry or newborn screening, in collaboration with experts in econometric, bioinformatics, and biostatistics may address a pragmatic use of laboratory results in the decision-making process oriented toward improvement of health care outcomes. CONTENT: The effectiveness of biomarkers on healthcare depends on several factors such as analytical performance, prevalence of the disease, integration of the test within the diagnostic algorithm, associated costs, and social/economic impact of false positive and false negative results. Cost-effectiveness analysis needs to be performed and reliability achieved, by overcoming analytical pitfalls and by improving interpretative criteria. These are challenging issues common to clinical chemistry and newborn screening tests. Following the experience in clinical chemistry, one of the main issues to be approached in newborn screening tests, is the lack of harmonization of results obtained by different methods and the limited healthcare effectiveness. SUMMARY: The focus on prevention is a crucial opportunity for laboratory medicine to change how to approach the effectiveness of biomarkers on healthcare. The consolidation within clinical laboratories of professionals with different technical and methodological expertise coupled with the need to produce and manage large sets of data, require the cooperation of professionals from other disciplines to characterize the impact of the tests on epidemiological outcomes for health care policy making process.

Managing the impact of inter-method bias of prostate specific antigen assays on biopsy referral: the key to move towards precision health in prostate cancer management.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the inter-method bias of total (tPSA) and free (fPSA) prostate-specific antigen (PSA) immunoassays to establish if tPSA-based risk thresholds for advanced prostate cancer (PCa), obtained from one method (Roche) can be converted into the corresponding concentrations assayed by other methods. Then we evaluated the impact of the bias of tPSA and fPSA on the estimation of the %f/tPSA ratio and performed a re-calibration of the proposed thresholds for the %f/tPSA ratio according to the assay used. METHODS: tPSA and fPSA were measured in 135 and 137 serum samples, respectively by Abbott Alinity i, Beckman Access Dxl, Roche Cobas e801, and Siemens Atellica IM analytical platforms. Scatterplots, Bland-Altman diagrams, Passing-Bablok (PB) were used to inspect and estimate the systematic and proportional bias between the methods. The linear equations with confidence intervals of the parameter estimates were used to transform the tPSA risk thresholds for advanced PCa into the corresponding concentrations measurable by the other analytical methods. To construct a correction coefficient for converting the %f/tPSA ratio from one method to the other, PB and non-parametric boostrapping were used. RESULTS: The inter-method bias is not constant but strictly linear allowing the conversion of PSA results obtained from Roche into the other assays, which underestimate tPSA vs. Roche. Siemens and Abbott vs. Roche and Beckman assays, being characterized by a positive and a negative proportional bias for tPSA and fPSA measurements, tend to overestimate the %f/tPSA ratio. CONCLUSIONS: There is a consistent risk to miss advanced PCa, if appropriate conversion factors are not applied.

Reference intervals for thyroid biomarkers to enhance the assessment of thyroid status in childhood and adolescence.

OBJECTIVES: The determination of assay-dependent upper and lower reference limits (URL, LRL) of free triiodothyronine (FT3), free thyroxine (FT4), and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) during childhood and adolescence, is challenging. METHODS: Thyroid hormones were measured via the Abbott Alinity system in 502 euthyroid children partitioned in the following age groups: ≤2, 2.1-10, and 10.1-18 years. The 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles (URL and LRL) were derived according to CLSI EP28- A3c guidelines. Quantile regression models were used to assess: (a) 90% confidence intervals of the URL and LRL, (b) the effect of age on URL and LRL within each age class and on overall age range, (c) the difference between the URLs and LRLs estimated for each age partition with an estimate of the confidence interval divided by the reference interval being derived (CI/RI). RESULTS: The CI/RI for the LRLs are smaller as compared to the URLs, except for FT4 for the 2.1-10 years age group. Considering the CI/RI and the overlap between CIs across the three age groups, one single LRL might be considered for TSH, FT3 and FT4 between 0 and 18 years. However, for the URL, there was a noticeable decrease in the URL over the 3 age groups for all three biomarkers, with there being no overlap in CIs for the URL between the ≤2 vs. the 10.1-19 years age groups. CONCLUSIONS: A common LRL for TSH, FT4 and FT3 for patients aged ≤18 years may be utilized when these biomarkers are measured with the Alinity system. For the URLs the use of age-specific URLs for these biomarkers is recommended.

Individual risk prediction of high grade prostate cancer based on the combination between total prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and free to total PSA ratio.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical practice guidelines endorse the stratification of prostate cancer (PCa) risk according to individual total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) values and age to enhance the individual risk-benefit ratio. We defined two nomograms to predict the individual risk of high and low grade PCa by combining the assay of tPSA and %free/tPSA (%f/tPSA) in patients with a pre-biopsy tPSA between 2 and 10 µg/L. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 662 patients that had fPSA, tPSA, and a biopsy performed (41.3% with a final diagnosis of PCa). Logistic regression including age, tPSA and %f/tPSA was used to model the probability of having high or low grade cancer by defining 3 outcome levels: no PCa, low grade (International Society of Urological Pathology grade, ISUP<3) and high grade PCa (ISUP≥3). RESULTS: The nomogram identifying patients with: (a) high vs. those with low grade PCa and without the disease showed a good discriminating capability (∼80%), but the calibration showed a risk of underestimation for predictive probabilities >30% (a considerable critical threshold of risk), (b) ISUP<3 vs. those without the disease showed a discriminating capability of 63% and overestimates predictive probabilities >50%. In ISUP 5 a possible loss of PSA immunoreactivity has been observed. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated risk of high or low grade PCa by the nomograms may be of aid in the decision-making process, in particular in the case of critical comorbidities and when the digital rectal examinations are inconclusive. The improved characterization of the risk of ISUP≥3 might enhance the use for magnetic resonance imaging in this setting.

Health Technology Assessment to assess value of biomarkers in the decision-making process.

Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) on screening, surveillance, and treatment of several diseases recommend the selective use of biomarkers with central role in clinical decision-making and move towards including patients in this process. To this aim we will clarify the multidisciplinary interactions required to properly measure the cost-effectiveness of biomarkers with regard to the risk-benefit of the patients and how Health Technology Assessment (HTA) approach may assess value of biomarkers integrated within the decision-making process. HTA through the interaction of different skills provides high-quality research information on the effectiveness, costs, and impact of health technologies, including biomarkers. The biostatistical methodology is relevant to HTA but only meta-analysis is covered in depth, whereas proper approaches are needed to estimate the benefit-risk balance ratio. Several biomarkers underwent HTA evaluation and the final reports have pragmatically addressed: 1) a redesign of the screening based on biomarker; 2) a de-implementation/replacement of the test in clinical practice; 3) a selection of biomarkers with potential predictive ability and prognostic value; and 4) a stronger monitoring of the appropriateness of test request. The COVID-19 pandemic has disclosed the need to create a robust and sustainable system to urgently deal with global health concerns and the HTA methodology enables rapid cost-effective implementation of diagnostic tests allowing healthcare providers to make critical patient-management decisions.

Fibroblast growth factor 23: translating analytical improvement into clinical effectiveness for tertiary prevention in chronic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVES: Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) plays a key role in the pathophysiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and of the associated cardiovascular diseases, ranking on the crossroads of several evolving areas with a relevant impact on the health-care system (ageing, treatment of CKD and prevention from cardiovascular and renal events). In this review, we will critically appraise the overall issues concerning the clinical usefulness of FGF23 determination in CKD, focusing on the analytical performances of the methods, aiming to assess whether and how the clinical introduction of FGF23 may promote cost-effective health care policies in these patients. CONTENT: Our comprehensive critical appraisal of the literature revealed that we are currently unable to establish the clinical usefulness of FGF23 measured by ELISA in CKD, as stability issues and suboptimal analytical performances are the major responsible for the release of misleading results. The meta-analytical approach has failed to report unambiguous evidence in face of the wide heterogeneity of the results from single studies. SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK: Our review has largely demonstrated that the clinical usefulness depends on a thorough analytical validation of the assay. The recent introduction of chemiluminescent intact-FGF23 (iFGF23) assays licensed for clinical use, after passing a robust analytical validation, has allowed the actual assessment of preliminary risk thresholds for cardiovascular and renal events and is promising to capture the iFGF23 clinically relevant changes as a result of a therapeutic modulation. In this perspective, the analytical optimization of FGF23 determination may allow a marriage between physiology and epidemiology and a merging towards clinical outcomes.

Diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 in children: accuracy of nasopharyngeal swab compared to nasopharyngeal aspirate.

The tests currently used for the identification of SARS-CoV-2 include specimens taken from the upper and lower respiratory tract. Although recommendations from the World Health Organization prioritise the usage of a nasopharyngeal swab (NS), nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) are thought to be superior in identifying SARS-CoV-2 in children. To our knowledge, however, no paediatric study has been published on the subject. The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performances of NS referred to NPA for SARS-CoV-2 in children. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of the NS referred to the NPA of the whole sample and considered both age and collection period as covariates in different analyses. We collected 300 paired samples. The NS had a specificity of 97.7% and a sensitivity of 58.1%. We found similar results for the group of subjects ≥ 6 years old, while for subjects < 6 years old, the sensitivity was 66.7% and the specificity 97.8%. Considering period as a covariate, the sensitivity and specificity for patients hospitalised in March (31 patients, 52 records) were 70.0% and 97.6%, while for patients involved in the follow-up (16 patients, 57 records), they were 57.2% and 89.7%. The NS has a low sensitivity in detecting SARS-CoV-2 in children when referred to the NPA, whereas its specificity is high. Our results suggest that in children under 6 years of age, NSs should be preferred whenever possible. Though statistically not significant, the sensitivity of the NS rises when performed before the NPA.

Undefined/non-malignant hepatic nodules are associated with early occurrence of HCC in DAA-treated patients with HCV-related cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIM: An unexpected early increase in incidence, recurrence and clinical aggressiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been reported (and refuted) in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis following direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. To address this controversy, we performed a prospective multicenter study on consecutively enrolled cirrhotic patients, with or without a history of HCC, undergoing DAA therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 1,161 HCC-free cirrhotics (group 1) and 124 cirrhotics who had received a curative treatment for an HCC (group 2) were enrolled. Clinical features, including presence of undefined/non-malignant liver nodules (UNMNs), were analyzed with respect to HCC incidence and recurrence. RESULTS: During a median study time of 17 months in group 1 and 16 months in group 2, de novo HCC developed in 48 patients (yearly incidence 3.1/100 patient-years, 75% BCLC 0-A) and recurred in 40 (mean yearly incidence 29.9/100 patient-years, 83% BCLC 0-A). A peak of HCC instant incidence was observed at 4.2 months in group 1 patients with UNMNs, and at 7.7 months in group 2. By multivariable Cox regression models, UNMNs (hazard ratio [HR] 3.11; 95% CI 1.47-6.57: p = 0.003), ascites detected any time before enrolment (HR 3.04; 95% CI 1.23-7.51; p = 0.02), and alpha-fetoprotein log-value (HR 1.90; 95% CI 1.05-3.44; p = 0.03) were the variables independently associated with the incidence of de novo HCC, while history of alcohol abuse (HR 2.10; 95% CI 1.08-4.09; p = 0.03) and history of recurrence of HCC (HR 2.87; 95% CI 1.35-6.09; p = 0.006) were associated with HCC recurrence. CONCLUSION: An early high incidence of both de novo HCC, in patients with UNMNs, and recurrent HCC was observed in DAA-treated patients; this was not accompanied by increased tumor aggressiveness. LAY SUMMARY: This prospective study focuses on the risk of developing de novo or recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment in patients with hepatitis C-related cirrhosis. We found that DAA treatment was associated with an early high HCC incidence in patients with undefined or non-malignant nodules, as well as in those with a history of complete response to HCC treatment. Whether this is related to the presence of clinically undetectable nests of cancer cells or to precancerous lesions that may progress to overt HCC upon DAA treatment remains unanswered. No evidence of increased clinical aggressiveness was reported in de novo or recurrent HCC.

Interpreting Breast Cancer Survival Data by the Hazard Function: Remarkable Findings from Event Dynamics.

The report addresses the role of the hazard function in the analysis of disease-free survival data in breast cancer. An investigation on local recurrences after mastectomy provided evidence that uninterrupted growth is inconsistent with clinical findings and that tumor dormancy could be assumed as working hypothesis to understand the clinical course of the disease. Additionally, it was deemed that the lag-time between primary tumor removal and tumor recurrence is dynamically dependent on the subclinical metastasis development within the host-tumor system and, therefore, may be informative about the biology of the disease. Accordingly, the hazard function, which estimates the event risk pattern through the time, was adopted to analyze survival data. The multipeak pattern of the hazard function suggested that the process metastasis development has discontinuous features. A new paradigm of breast cancer metastatic development was proposed, involving the notions of tumor homeostasis, tumor quiescence in specific metastatic microscopic phases and surgery-related acceleration of the metastatic process. All analyses by prognostic factors (e.g., by menopausal status) or treatment modalities (e.g., by adjuvant chemotherapy) or other parameters (e.g., site of metastasis), provided coherent data in agreement with the model. The hazard rate function allowed addressing several clinical questions including meaning of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR), oncologic effect of delayed breast reconstruction, surgery related metastasis acceleration, possible role of anti-inflammatory drugs and body mass index (BMI) to modulate the recurrence risk. We conclude that the hazard function is a powerful tool to investigate the post-surgical course of early breast cancer and other operable tumors and to make inferences on their biology.

Distant metastasis dynamics following subsequent surgeries after primary breast cancer removal.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the research was to separate the distant metastasis (DM) enhancing effect due to breast tumour removal from that due to surgical manoeuvre by itself. METHODS: DM dynamics following surgery for ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR), contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and delayed reconstruction (REC), which was performed after the original breast cancer surgical removal, was analysed. A total of 338 patients with IBTR, 239 with CBC and 312 with REC were studied. RESULTS: The DM dynamics following IBTR, CBC and REC, when assessed with time origin at their surgical treatment, is similar to the analogous pattern following primary tumour removal, with a first major peak at about 18 months and a second lower one at about 5 years from surgery. The time span between primary tumour removal and the second surgery is influential on DM risk levels for IBTR and CBC patients, not for REC patients. CONCLUSIONS: The role of breast tumour removal is different from the role of surgery by itself. Our findings suggest that the major effect of reconstructive surgery is microscopic metastasis acceleration, while breast tumour surgical removal (either primary or IBTR or CBC) involves both tumour homeostasis interruption and microscopic metastasis growth acceleration. The removal of a breast tumour would eliminate its homeostatic restrains on metastatic foci, thus allowing metastasis development, which, in turn, would be supported by the forwarding action of the mechanisms triggered by the surgical wounding.

Comprehensive evaluation of methods to assess overall and cell-specific immune infiltrates in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) immune infiltrates play a critical role in tumor progression and response to treatment. Besides stromal tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) which have recently reached level 1B evidence as a prognostic marker in triple negative BC, a plethora of methods to assess immune infiltration exists, and it is unclear how these compare to each other and if they can be used interchangeably. METHODS: Two experienced pathologists scored sTIL, intra-tumoral TIL (itTIL), and 6 immune cell types (CD3+, CD4+, CD8+, CD20+, CD68+, FOXP3+) in the International Cancer Genomics Consortium breast cancer cohort using hematoxylin and eosin-stained (n = 243) and immunohistochemistry-stained tissue microarrays (n = 254) and whole slides (n = 82). The same traits were evaluated using transcriptomic- and methylomic-based deconvolution methods or signatures. RESULTS: The concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) between pathologists for sTIL was very good (0.84) and for cell-specific immune infiltrates slightly lower (0.63-0.66). Comparison between tissue microarray and whole slide pathology scores revealed systematically higher values in whole slides (ratio 2.60-5.98). The Spearman correlations between microscopic sTIL and transcriptomic- or methylomic-based assessment of immune infiltrates were highly variable (r = 0.01-0.56). Similar observations were made for cell type-specific quantifications (r = 0.001-0.54). We observed a strong inter-method variability between the omics-derived estimations, which is further cell type dependent. Finally, we demonstrated that most methods more accurately identify highly infiltrated (sTIL ≥ 60%; area under the curve, AUC, 0.64-0.99) as compared to lowly infiltrated tumors (sTIL ≤ 10%; AUC 0.52-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: There is a lower inter-pathologist concordance for cell-specific quantification as compared to overall infiltration quantification. Microscopic assessments are underestimated when considering small cores (tissue microarray) instead of whole slides. Results further highlight considerable differences between the microscopic-, transcriptomic-, and methylomic-based methods in the assessment of overall and cell-specific immune infiltration in BC. We therefore call for extreme caution when assessing immune infiltrates using current methods and emphasize the need for standardized immune characterization beyond TIL.

Modeling the covariates effects on the hazard function by piecewise exponential artificial neural networks: an application to a controlled clinical trial on renal carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In exploring the time course of a disease to support or generate biological hypotheses, the shape of the hazard function provides relevant information. For long follow-ups the shape of hazard function may be complex, with the presence of multiple peaks. In this paper we present the use of a neural network extension of the piecewise exponential model to study the shape of the hazard function in time in dependence of covariates. The technique is applied to a dataset of 247 renal cell carcinoma patients from a randomized clinical trial. RESULTS: An interaction effect of treatment with number of metastatic lymph nodes but not with pathologic T-stage is highlighted. CONCLUSIONS: Piecewise Exponential Artificial Neural Networks demonstrate a clinically useful and flexible tool in assessing interaction or time-dependent effects of the prognostic factors on the hazard function.

Correction to: Observational study on the prognostic value of testosterone and adiposity in postmenopausal estrogen receptor positive breast cancer patients.

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors reported that the affiliation of author Annalisa Orenti was omitted.

Observational study on the prognostic value of testosterone and adiposity in postmenopausal estrogen receptor positive breast cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Despite the clear endocrine-metabolic relationship between androgenic activity and adiposity, the role of androgens in breast cancer prognosis according to patient's adiposity is scarcely explored. Here, we aimed at investigating the prognostic value of circulating testosterone in association with patient's body mass index (BMI). METHODS: Circulating testosterone and BMI were evaluated at breast cancer diagnosis in 460 estrogen receptor (ER)-positive postmenopausal patients. Local relapse, distant metastasi(e)s and contralateral breast cancer were considered recurrence events. The Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to evaluate if testosterone levels differed within subgroups of categorical tumour characteristics. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted to estimate the impact of standard prognostic factors on relapse-specific hazard ratio (HR). After backward selection, a model including continuous testosterone level, BMI categories (< 25, normal-weight; =25-30, overweight; ≥30 kg/m2, obese), tumour size and lymph nodes number was fitted. Furthermore, Cox models provided the relapse-specific HRs for median, third quartile and 95th percentile compared to the first quartile of testosterone levels, stratified by BMI categories. RESULTS: During a median follow up of 6.3 years, 45 patients relapsed. Testosterone levels significantly increased across BMI categories (p = 0.001). Both circulating testosterone and BMI were positively associated with disease free survival (p = 0.005 and p = 0.021, respectively). A significant interaction was found between testosterone and BMI (p = 0.006). For normal-weight women, testosterone concentration around median (0.403 ng/mL) or third quartile (0.532 ng/mL) showed a high significant HR of relapse (5.52; 95% CI:1.65-18.49 and 4.55; 95% CI:1.09-18.98, respectively). Overweight patients showed increased HR at increasing testosterone levels, reaching a significant high HR (4.68; 95% CI:1.39-15.70) for testosterone values of 0.782 ng/mL (95th percentile). For obese patients HR decreased (not significantly) at increased testosterone concentrations, explaining the interaction between testosterone levels and BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: In ER-positive postmenopausal breast cancer patients, high testosterone levels are associated with worse prognosis in normal-weight and overweight women, whereas in obese seems to be associated with a better outcome. Although the results require further validation, they suggest that assessment of circulating testosterone and BMI could help to identify postmenopausal ER-positive patients at higher risk of relapse and potentially open new therapeutic strategies.

Serum levels of testosterone and SHBG in association with body mass index improve the predictive capability of consolidate tumor biomarkers in pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer patients.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the contribution of serum levels of testosterone (TS) and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) in association with body mass index (BMI) as a surrogate marker of obesity, to the predictive capability of tumor size (T), lymph node (N) and estrogen receptor (ER) status and proliferative activity (TLI). METHODS: We investigated 120 women with primary breast cancer and median follow-up of 138 months. Serum levels of TS and SHBG and patient's BMI were evaluated before surgery. The contribution of TS, SHBG, their ratio (TS/SHBG) and BMI to the predictive capability of tumor-specific biomarkers was investigated by Harrell's c statistic. RESULTS: TS alone did not affect prognosis, whereas SHBG was protective in postmenopausal patients, in which BMI was associated with a progressive increase in the relapse-specific hazard ratio (HR). When in combination, TS, SHBG and BMI, affected prognosis in different ways depending on menopausal status. The best predictive capability (c = 0.78) was observed in postmenopausal patients when at the basic model (N + TLI) were added TS, BMI, TS * BMI interaction, with or without SHBG. In premenopause subgroup, the best predictive capability (c = 0.67) was provided by the basic model (N + TLI) plus TS and SHBG or their ratio, BMI and TS * BMI or TS/SHBG * BMI interaction. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-associated features such as BMI and serum levels of TS and SHBG can improve the predictive capability of consolidate tumor-specific biomarkers in both pre- and postmenopause, thus providing a relevant contribution to the decision-making process.

Reliability of tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte and tertiary lymphoid structure assessment in human breast cancer.

The presence of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), reflecting host immune activity, is frequently correlated with better clinical outcomes, particularly in HER2-positive and triple-negative breast cancer. Recent findings suggest that organization of immune infiltrates in tertiary lymphoid structures also has a beneficial effect on survival. This study investigated inter- and intra-observer variation in TIL assessment using conventional hematoxylin-eosin versus immunohistochemical staining to identify immune cells. Global, intratumoral, and stromal TIL, as well as tertiary lymphoid structures were scored independently by experienced pathologists on full-face tumor sections (n=124). The fidelity of scoring infiltrates in core biopsies compared to surgical specimens, and pathological assessment compared to quantitative digital analysis was also evaluated. The inter-observer concordance correlation coefficient was 0.80 for global, 0.72 for intratumoral, and 0.71 for stromal TIL, while the intra-observer concordance correlation coefficient was 0.90 for global, 0.77 for intratumoral, and 0.89 for stromal TIL using immunohistochemical stains. Correlations were lower with hematoxylin-eosin stains, particularly for intratumoral TIL, while global scores had the highest concordance correlation coefficients. Our study concluded that tertiary lymphoid structures are accurately and consistently scored using immunohistochemical but not hematoxylin-eosin stains. A strong association was observed between TIL in core biopsies and surgical samples (R2=0.74) but this did not extend to tertiary lymphoid structures (R2=0.26). TIL scored by pathologists and digital analysis were correlated but our analysis reveals a constant bias between these methods. These data challenge current criteria for TIL and tertiary lymphoid structure assessment in breast cancer and recommend that how pathologists evaluate immune infiltrates be reexamined for future studies.

Tumor dormancy and frailty models: A novel approach.

Frailty models are here proposed in the tumor dormancy framework, in order to account for possible unobservable dependence mechanisms in cancer studies where a non-negligible proportion of cancer patients relapses years or decades after surgical removal of the primary tumor. Relapses do not seem to follow a memory-less process, since their timing distribution leads to multimodal hazards. From a biomedical perspective, this behavior may be explained by tumor dormancy, i.e., for some patients microscopic tumor foci may remain asymptomatic for a prolonged time interval and, when they escape from dormancy, micrometastatic growth results in a clinical disease appearance. The activation of the growth phase at different metastatic states would explain the occurrence of metastatic recurrences and mortality at different times (multimodal hazard). We propose a new frailty model which includes in the risk function a random source of heterogeneity (frailty variable) affecting the components of the hazard function. Thus, the individual hazard rate results as the product of a random frailty variable and the sum of basic hazard rates. In tumor dormancy, the basic hazard rates correspond to micrometastatic developments starting from different initial states. The frailty variable represents the heterogeneity among patients with respect to relapse, which might be related to unknown mechanisms that regulate tumor dormancy. We use our model to estimate the overall survival in a large breast cancer dataset, showing how this improves the understanding of the underlying biological process.