Interprofessional collaboration and smartphone use as promising strategies to improve prenatal oral health care utilization among US underserved women: results from a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Data on barriers and facilitators to prenatal oral health care among low-income US women are lacking. The objective of this study was to understand barriers/facilitators and patient-centered mitigation strategies related to the use of prenatal oral health care among underserved US women. METHODS: We used community-based participatory research to conduct two focus groups with eight pregnant/parenting women; ten individual in-depth interviews with medical providers, dental providers and community/social workers; and one community engagement studio with five representative community stakeholders in 2018-2019. Using an interpretive description research design, we conducted semi-structured interviews and focus groups which were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed for thematic content. RESULTS: We identified individual and systemic barriers/facilitators to the utilization of prenatal oral health care by underserved US women. Strategies reported to improve utilization included healthcare system-wide changes to promote inter-professional collaborations, innovative educational programs to improve dissemination and implementation of prenatal oral health care guidelines, and specialized dental facilities providing prenatal oral health care to underserved women. Moreover, smartphones have the potential to be an innovative entry point to promote utilization of prenatal oral care at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS: Low-income women face multiple, addressable barriers to obtaining oral health care during pregnancy. Inter-professional collaboration holds strong promise for improving prenatal oral health care utilization.

Prenatal Oral Health Care and Early Childhood Caries Prevention: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Despite the advancement of early childhood caries (ECC) prediction and treatment, ECC remains a significant public health burden in need of more effective preventive strategies. Pregnancy is an ideal period to promote ECC prevention given the profound influence of maternal oral health and behaviors on children's oral health. However, studies have shown debatable results with respect to the effectiveness of ECC prevention by means of prenatal intervention. Therefore, this study systematically reviewed the scientific evidence relating to the association between prenatal oral health care, ECC incidence, and Streptococcus mutans carriage in children. Five studies (3 randomized control trials, 1 prospective cohort study, and 1 nested case-control study) were included for qualitative assessment. Tested prenatal oral health care included providing fluoride supplements, oral examinations/cleanings, oral health education, dental treatment referrals, and xylitol gum chewing. Four studies that assessed ECC incidence reduction were included in meta-analysis using an unconditional generalized linear mixed effects model with random study effects and age as a covariate. The estimated odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals suggested a protective effect of prenatal oral health care against ECC onset before 4 years of age: 0.12 (0.02, 0.77) at 1 year of age, 0.18 (0.05, 0.63) at 2 years of age, 0.25 (0.09, 0.64) at 3 years of age, and 0.35 (0.12, 1.00) at 4 years of age. Children's S. mutans carriage was also significantly reduced in the intervention group. Future studies should consider testing strategies that restore an expectant mother's oral health to a disease-free state during pregnancy.

Candida albicans and Early Childhood Caries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Oral Candida albicans has been detected in children with early childhood caries (ECC) and has demonstrated cariogenic traits in animal models of the disease. Conversely, other studies found no positive correlation between C. albicans and caries experience in children, while suggesting it may have protective effects as a commensal organism. Thus, this study aimed to examine whether oral C. albicans is associated with ECC. Seven electronic databases were searched. The data from eligible studies were extracted, and the risk of bias was evaluated. A fixed effects model (Mantel-Haenszel estimate) was used for meta-analysis, and the summary effect measure was calculated by odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Fifteen cross-sectional studies were included for the qualitative assessment and 9 studies for meta-analysis. Twelve studies revealed higher oral C. albicans prevalence in ECC children than in caries-free children, while 2 studies indicated an equivalent prevalence. A pooled estimate, with OR = 6.51 and 95% CI = 4.94-8.57, indicated a significantly higher ECC experience in children with oral C. albicans than those without C. albicans (p < 0.01). The odds of experiencing ECC in children with C. albicans versus children without C. albicans were 5.26 for salivary, 6.69 for plaque, and 6.3 for oral swab samples. This systematic review indicates that children with oral C. albicans have >5 times higher odds of having ECC compared to those without C. albicans. Further prospective cohort studies are needed to determine whether C. albicans could be a risk factor for ECC, and whether it is dependent on different sample sources (saliva/plaque).

Psychosocial Risk Exposure Limits Routine Pediatric Oral Health Care.

Introduction: This study aimed to identify social, psychological, and contextual factors that influenced attendance at routine oral health visits in a cohort of 189 preschool children who were followed over a 2-year period. Methods: Generalized estimating equation was used to examine the association between clinic attendance and the predictors. ORs and 95% CIs were reported in the multiple logistic regression models. The study was conducted in Rochester, New York, between February 2016 and February 2021. Results: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, the rate of canceled and no-show appointments was greater for routine clinic visits (20% and 24%, respectively) than for research visits (14% and 9%, respectively) for the same participants; these rates increased during the pandemic. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, the likelihood of a canceled or no-show appointment was associated with parental depression (OR=1.06, CI=1.03, 1.09), regardless of the type or occurrence of the visit. Conclusions: Findings from this study demonstrate that attendance to oral health care in young children is reliably reduced with parental depression and that this may provide one mechanism for early emerging health inequalities of oral health.

Comparative effectiveness study to assess two examination modalities used to detect dental caries in preschool urban children.

BACKGROUND: Dental caries affecting the primary dentition of U.S. children continues to be the most prevalent chronic childhood disease. Preventive screening for dental caries in toddlers by dental professionals is labor-intensive and costly. Studies are warranted to examine innovative screening modalities that reduce cost, are less labor-intensive, and have the potential to identify caries in high-risk children. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Two hundred ninety-one children were randomized into two groups: Group 1 received a traditional, visual tactile examination initially and follow up-examinations at 6 and 12 months, and Group 2 received a teledentistry examination initially and follow-up examinations at 6 and 12 months. The mean primary tooth decayed and filled surfaces (dfs) scores were calculated for all children at baseline and 6 and 12 months. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean dfs score for children examined by means of teledentistry was 2.19, and for the children examined by means of the traditional method, the mean was 1.27; the means were not significantly different. At the 12-month examination, the mean dfs score for the children examined by means of teledentistry was 3.02, and for the children examined by means of the clinical method, the mean dfs was 1.70; the means were not significantly different. At 12 months the mean fillings score for the children examined by means of teledentistry was 1.43 and for the children examined by means of the clinical method was 0.51; the means were statistically significantly different (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the teledentistry examinations were comparable to clinical examinations when screening for early childhood caries in preschool children. The data further showed that color printouts of teeth with cavities provided to parents of children who received teledentistry screenings promoted oral healthcare utilization, as children from the teledentistry study group received more dental care than children from the clinical study group.

Dental caries recurrence following clinical treatment for severe early childhood caries.

PURPOSE: To determine the relapse rate within one year for a cohort of children treated for severe early childhood caries (S-ECC). METHODS: In an earlier report, we assessed the suppressive effect of 10 percent povidone-iodine and the elimination of active caries on salivary mutans streptococci (MS) populations in 77 children with S-ECC; 49 children returned for a 6-month recall exam that occurred 5 to 12 months post dental surgery. Relapse declaration required at least one caries lesion needing a restoration. Contrasts of relapse (R) and non-relapse (NR) to the covariates of gender, race, ethnicity, age, surfaces available for relapse (SAR), time to appointment, and baseline salivary mutans streptococci (MS) counts were statistically evaluated. RESULTS: 19 children (39%) were declared R and 30 (61%) were NR. The 2 groups did not statistically differ on: gender, race, ethnicity, age, SAR, baseline salivary MS counts and time to recall appointment. Statistical analyses also showed the covariates had no significant effect on probability of relapse or time to relapse (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: None of the covariates were related to R. The R rate (39%) observed is consistent with earlier reports. Novel approaches are needed to improve relapse prevention.

Alternative Formulations of Trap Lures for Operational Detection, Population Monitoring, and Outbreak Forecasting of Southern Pine Beetle in the United States.

The southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) is a major destructive pest of Pinus L. In the southeastern United States, numbers of this species and a major predator, Thanasimus dubius (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Cleridae), captured during an annual springtime trapping survey are used to make forecasts of the likelihood and severity of an outbreak during the following summer. We investigated responses by both species to six lure formulations to evaluate their suitability for the survey and allow integration of historical data sets produced with differing lure compositions. Trapping trials were performed at four locations across three states (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama) during spring, and at these and one additional location (North Carolina) in fall 2016. All lures included the pheromone component frontalin. Southern pine beetle preferred lures that additionally included the pheromone component endo-brevicomin and turpentine as a source of host odors (rather than a 7:3 mixture of monoterpenes alpha- and beta-pinene). Thanasimus dubius displayed little discrimination among lure compositions. Lure preferences by southern pine beetle did not differ significantly among locations in spring but were influenced by season. Gas chromatography (GC)-electroantennographic detection analyses with southern pine beetle and GC-mass spectrometry identified numerous known and potential semiochemicals that distinguished volatiles released by the tested host odor devices. The lure combination that included endo-brevicomin and alpha/beta-pinene is recommended for the trapping survey because of its high sensitivity for southern pine beetle and potential for greater data integrity resulting from its reproducible composition.

Assessment of caries experience in 12-year-old adolescents in Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PURPOSE: The aim of the present study was to analyse the association between socioeconomic and behavioural factors and the presence of active non-cavitated caries lesions in 12-year-old adolescents in Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in 1001, 12-year-old adolescents who were selected by the cluster sampling method. A modified version of the World Health Organization criteria for identifying lesions including white lesions (WL) in enamel was used. Information on behavioural and socioeconomic factors was obtained using a semi-structured questionnaire. The outcome variables were DMFS, DMFS+WL and WL. The data obtained were analysed using the chi-square test and a logistic regression model. RESULTS: The mean DMFS was 1.87 (SD = 3.05) and DMFS+WL was 2.27 (SD = 3.66). The logistic regression model showed that income was statistically significantly associated with DMFS, DMFS+WL and WL, whereas educational level of the father, number of residents in the house and number of dental visits were associated with DMFS and DMFS+WL. The onset of toothbrushing was associated with WL. CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed that economic factors are associated with all stages of caries development. In addition to these factors, family size, number of dental visits, educational level of the father and onset of toothbrushing could be considered markers of dental health risk.

Effect of tobacco smoke on the oral health of U.S. women of childbearing age.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the oral health status of US women of childbearing age and to analyze the effect of tobacco smoke on their oral health. METHODS: Data from the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were evaluated for women 15-44 years of age. The association of exposure to tobacco smoke with untreated caries, mean DMFS, gingivitis, and periodontitis were examined in bivariate and regression analyses controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: The prevalence of untreated caries was 25%, for gingivitis 49%, and for periodontitis 6%. After adjusting for potential confounders, self-reported current smoking was a strong independent risk indicator for untreated caries, periodontitis, and to a lesser extent for greater DMFS count. Women with detectable cotinine levels below 15 ng/mL presented with an increased risk for gingivitis. Independent factors associated with increased risk for untreated caries were being Black, having less than a high school education, Medicaid or no health insurance, previous live births, and infrequent and episodic dental visits. Characteristics associated with gingivitis were being Mexican-American, obese, pregnant, and having infrequent dental visits. Older age, no insurance, and the last dental visit for treatment were independently associated with periodontitis. CONCLUSIONS: Dental caries and periodontitis were prevalent among certain subgroups of women of reproductive age. Smoking was found to be a significant risk indicator for various negative oral health outcomes. Barriers to accessing to dental care that were manifested by untreated caries among Black women, mothers, and Medicaid beneficiaries must be better understood.

Adjunctive chemotherapeutic suppression of mutans streptococci in the setting of severe early childhood caries: an exploratory study.

OBJECTIVES: This investigational study assessed the suppressive effect of 10 percent povidone iodine (PI) coupled with elimination of active carious lesions on salivary mutans streptococci (MS) populations in children with severe early childhood caries (S-ECC). METHODS: 77 children (38 females, 39 males) were treated for S- ECC in one session; a 0.2 ml PI solution was applied to the dentition after dental surgery was completed and immediately wiped off. The subjects aged from 2 to 5 years (mean = 3.78 years) at baseline. Whole nonstimulated saliva samples were obtained at baseline, 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days post dental surgery. Samples were placed on ice and processed within 2 hours. The MS level in each sample was expressed as colony forming units (CFUs) per ml of saliva. RESULTS: Approximately 50 percent of subjects had a >95 percent reduction in CFU/ml of saliva at each time point after baseline. The percentages of subjects with a >50 percent reduction in MS level were 85 percent at 30 days, 83 percent at 60 days, 84 percent at 90 days. The median (25th, 75th percentiles) CFUs/ml of saliva counts were 8.40 x 10(5) (1.49 x 10(5), 5.00 x 10(6)) at baseline (n= 77), 4.12 x 10(4) (8.40 x 10(3), 1.89 x 10(5)) at 30 days (n = 74), 4.62 x 10(4) (7.00 x 10(3), 1.36 x 10(5)) at 60 days (n = 70), and 5.09 x 10(4) (1.16 x 10(4), 1.00 x 10(5)) at 90 days (n = 70). The changes from baseline to 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days were statistically significant (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: PI coupled with dental surgery has a significant suppressive effect on salivary MS levels in the setting of S-ECC for at least 90 days. These data strongly suggest that treatment with PI may be an important adjunct to dental surgery for S-ECC.

Human genes influence the interaction between Streptococcus mutans and host caries susceptibility: a genome-wide association study in children with primary dentition.

Streptococcus mutans is a well-known cause of dental caries, due to its acidogenicity, aciduricity, and ability to synthesize exopolysaccharides in dental plaques. Intriguingly, not all children who carry S. mutans manifest caries, even with similar characteristics in oral hygiene, diet, and other environmental factors. This phenomenon suggests that host susceptibility potentially plays a role in the development of dental caries; however, the association between host genetics, S. mutans, and dental caries remains unclear. Therefore, this study examined the influence of host gene-by-S. mutans interaction on dental caries. Genome-wide association analyses were conducted in 709 US children (<13 years old), using the dbGap database acquired from the center for oral health research in appalachia (COHRA) and the Iowa Head Start programmes (GEIRS). A generalized estimating equation was used to examine the gene-by-S. mutans interaction effects on the outcomes (decayed and missing/filled primary teeth due to caries). Sequentially, the COHRA and GEIRS data were used to identify potential interactions and replicate the findings. Three loci at the genes interleukin 32 (IL32), galactokinase 2 (GALK2), and CUGBP, Elav-like family member 4 (CELF4) were linked to S. mutans carriage, and there was a severity of caries at a suggestive significance level among COHRA children (P < 9 × 10-5), and at a nominal significance level among GEIRS children (P = 0.047-0.001). The genetic risk score that combined the three loci also significantly interacted with S. mutans (P < 0.000 1). Functional analyses indicated that the identified genes are involved in the host immune response, galactose carbohydrate metabolism, and food-rewarding system, which could potentially be used to identify children at high risk for caries and to develop personalized caries prevention strategies.

Association of periodontal disease with depression and adverse birth outcomes: Results from the Perinatal database; Finger Lakes region, New York State.

Preterm and low birth weight infants are at greater risk for mortality and a variety of health and developmental problems. Data from the Finger Lakes Perinatal Data System database on 316,956 deliveries occurring between 2004-2014 and pregnancy outcomes were analyzed to assess the association of periodontal (gum) disease with depression, other maternal factors and adverse birth outcomes. Adjusted effects of periodontal disease and depression on adverse birth outcomes were estimated using multiple logistic regression models and path analysis. Having preterm delivery was associated significantly with depression (OR = 1.177; 95% CI: [1.146, 1.208]), having adequate health care (OR = 1.638; 95% CI: [1.589, 1.689]), smoking during pregnancy (OR = 1.259; 95% CI: [1.220, 1.300]), and being less educated (OR = 1.214; 95% CI: [1.174, 1.256]). Having low birth weight was significantly associated with depression (OR = 1.206; 95% CI: [1.170, 1.208]), smoking during pregnancy (OR = 1.855; 95% CI: [1.793, 1.919]), and being less educated (OR = 1.322; 95% CI: [1.275, 1.370]). Periodontal disease was significantly associated with alcohol use during pregnancy (OR = 1.314; 95% CI: [1.227, 1.407]) and white race (OR = 1.192; 95% CI: [1.167, 1.217]). Depression was significantly associated with periodontal disease (OR = 1.762; 95% CI: [1.727, 1.797]) and alcohol use during pregnancy (OR = 1.470; 95% CI: [1.377, 1.570]). We concluded that a positive association existed between depression during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes, and that depression served as a mediator in the association of periodontal disease with adverse birth outcomes.

Temperature extremes, density dependence, and southern pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in east Texas.

Previous studies of the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm., established that its population in east Texas responds to a delayed density-dependent process, whereas no clear role of climate has been determined. We tested two biological hypotheses for the influence of extreme temperatures on annual southern pine beetle population growth in the context of four alternative hypotheses for density-dependent population regulation. The significance of climate variables and their interaction with population regulation depended on the model of density dependence. The best model included both direct and delayed density dependence of a cubic rather than linear form. Population growth declined with the number of days exceeding 32 degrees C, temperatures previously reported to reduce brood survival. Density dependence also changed with the number of hot days. Growth was highest in years with average minimum winter temperatures. Severely cold winters may reduce survival, whereas warm winters may reduce the efficiency of spring infestation formation. Whereas most previous studies have incorporated climate as an additive effect on growth, we found that the form of delayed density dependence changed with the number of days >32 degrees C. The interaction between temperature and regulation, a potentially common phenomenon in ecology, may explain why southern pine beetle outbreaks do not occur at perfectly regular intervals. Factors other than climate, such as forest management and direct suppression, may have contributed significantly to the timing, severity, and eventual cessation of outbreaks since the mid-1950s.

Prevalence of dental caries in Early Head Start children as diagnosed using teledentistry.

PURPOSE: This study's purpose was to assess caries prevalence by means of teledentistry in 12- to 60-month old children enrolled in Early Head Start inner-city child core centers. METHODS: Images of the primary dentition were obtained by trained telehealth assistants using on intraoral camera. Images were entered into a Web-based storage and retrieval program. They were transmitted to a secure, remote-site computer and evaluated by a calibrated pediatric dentist. RESULTS: Of 162 children screened, 93 were caries free and 69 had early childhood caries (ECC). Of these, 28 had severe early childhood caries (S-ECC). The mean dfs score for all 162 children was 1.88. The mean dfs score for the 69 ECC children was 4.42. The mean dfs for the subgroup of 28 S-ECC children was 7.61. Caries scores of S-ECC children were statistically significantly different from caries scores of the entire cohort and from caries scores of the ECC children. CONCLUSIONS: This study's results show that: (1) almost half of the preschoolers enrolled in the study were affected by dental caries; (2) only a few children had ever had a dental visit; and (3) teledentistry offers a potentially efficient means of screening high-risk preschool children for signs of early childhood caries.

Advancement Of Teledentistry At The University Of Rochester's Eastman Institute For Oral Health.

Dental caries is the most prevalent infectious disease among US children. National surveys have shown that poor and minority-group children are not only disproportionately affected by dental caries but also have limited access to oral health care. Following successful exploratory applications of both synchronous and asynchronous models at the Eastman Institute for Oral Health, teledentistry has been demonstrated to be a practical and cost-effective way to improve oral health care for rural and disadvantaged children. These models support the role of teledentistry in reducing the costs of and barriers to accessing oral health care, improving oral health outcomes, increasing use of oral health care resources, and leading to the establishment of a dental home for underserved children. The advancement of teledentistry underscores the need for its integration with local, regional, and national telehealth programs and the role of policy makers in establishing a balanced framework for teledentistry within the overarching health care system.

Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis.

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by approximately 1-4 degrees C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3 degrees C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3 degrees C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.

Dental screening of preschool children using teledentistry: a feasibility study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility and reliability of using intraoral cameras and telehealth communication technology to screen preschool children for oral disease, in particular early childhood caries (ECC). METHODS: The authors used the existing infrastructure of the Health-e-Access telehealth Network to: (1) assess the diagnostic quality of dental images using the Dr. Camscope intraoral camera; and (2) compare the resulting images to a traditional oral examination. A calibrated dental examiner observed 50 preschool children 4 to 6 years old who were enrolled in an inner-city childcare center. Following the oral examination, images of the children's teeth were obtained by a trained telehealth assistant and transmitted to the remote site computer; identifiers were removed and the images were randomized. After a 2-week washout period, the images were read by the same examiner. RESULTS: A complete set of dental images was obtained from all 50 children in the study. A greater proportion of children examined using the intraoral camera were observed to have caries (42%) compared to children examined visually (28%). Furthermore, a greater number of carious teeth were detected from the images than from the visual examinations. The mean teledentistry dfs score was 2.10, and the oral examination 1.50 (P > .05). The kappa agreement was 61 (kappa = 0.61; 95% CI = 039-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: There was no statistically significant difference between a visual examination and an examination using an intraoral camera, thus suggesting that the intraoral camera is a feasible and potentially cost-effective alternative to a visual oral examination for caries screening, especially early childhood caries, in preschool children attending childcare centers.

Teledentistry in inner-city child-care centres.

In Rochester, NY, telehealth centres were established in six inner-city elementary schools and seven child-care centres. The teledentistry project complemented the existing telehealth model. Using an intraoral camera, telehealth assistants record digital images of children's teeth (768 x 494 pixels) and send the images to a computer at the expert dental site (the Eastman Department of Dentistry at the University of Rochester). The paediatric dentist at the expert site reviews the images, and provides referral and treatment recommendations. Subsequently, the telehealth assistant contacts the child's parents or guardians and assists them to obtain appropriate dental care for their child. In the pilot study, we screened 50 children. In the first nine months of 2005, we screened 123 children. The results of our initial teledental screenings of children aged 12-48 months attending inner-city child-care centres revealed that almost 40% had active dental caries, mainly early childhood caries (ECC). For the first time, many children attending inner-city child-care centres have had their teeth examined at an early age and been given prompt feedback on the need for dental care.

A longitudinal study of caries onset in initially caries-free children and baseline salivary mutans streptococci levels: a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To apply survival analysis to a longitudinal study of the relationship between salivary mutans streptococci (MS) levels at baseline in initially caries-free children and caries onset in deciduous, mixed, and permanent dentition. METHODS: The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis method was used to compare survival times to caries onset for initially caries-free children with low levels of MS at baseline with survival times to caries onset for initially caries-free children with high levels of MS at baseline. RESULTS: Data from a 6-year longitudinal study of caries risk in initially caries-free children in Rochester and the Finger Lakes Region of western New York were utilized for this study. Of 464 children analyzed, 327 had a low level of MS and 137 had a high level of MS at baseline. Survival analyses showed that children with a low level of MS at baseline remained caries-free for a longer period than children with a high level of MS at baseline. Statistically significant relationships [hazard ratios (HR)] with onset of caries in deciduous, mixed and permanent teeth were found with high and low levels of salivary MS. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our analysis, we concluded that children who were caries-free at baseline and who had high salivary MS levels at baseline would be at greater risk, i.e. more susceptible to caries onset, at any given time than caries-free children who had low salivary MS levels at baseline. Survival functions for deciduous, mixed and permanent dentitions with their 95% confidence limits have been calculated. Survival analysis for the exploration of longitudinal caries studies has an advantage over traditional statistical methods, as it takes into account censored observations and incorporates the concept of risk over time. Hence, survival analysis is well suited for studying transitions from one health state to another, in this case, from a caries-free state to a caries-active state.