Predictors of Mortality in Pulmonary Hypertension-Associated Chronic Lung Disease.

Background/Objectives: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) often accompanies chronic lung diseases. Several chronic lung diseases with PH portends unfavorable outcomes. We investigated which variables in this cohort of patients with chronic lung disease and PH predicts mortality. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of patients with chronic lung disease and PH at a single tertiary, academic center. The underlying lung disease included were COPD, IPF, other fibrotic ILD, non-fibrotic ILD, fibrotic sarcoidosis, and CPFE. All patients had right heart catheterization diagnostic of PH as well as pulmonary function testing data including 6 min walk testing. Univariable and multivariate Cox regression was performed to identify variables associated with mortality. Results: We identified 793 patients with chronic lung disease and PH. In total, 144 patients died prior to potential lung transplant. In multivariable Cox regression IPF, other fibrotic ILD, non-fibrotic ILD, and CPFE were significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality. Severe PH (PVR > 5 WU), FEV1 < 30% predicted, FVC < 40% predicted, 6 min walk distance < 150 m were also significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality. Conclusions: Carrying a diagnosis of IPF, CPFE, fibrotic ILD, or non-fibrotic ILD with PH has an increased risk of mortality as compared to COPD with PH. Hemodynamic, PVR > 5 WU, 6 min walk test less than 150 m, as well as spirometric data including FEV1 < 30% and FVC < 40% predicted were independently associated with an increased risk of death.

Inter-rater reliability and prognostic value of baseline Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) scores in observational cohort studies of inpatients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: To reliably quantify the radiographic severity of COVID-19 pneumonia with the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score on clinical chest X-rays among inpatients and examine the prognostic value of baseline RALE scores on COVID-19 clinical outcomes. SETTING: Hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in dedicated wards and intensive care units from two different hospital systems. PARTICIPANTS: 425 patients with COVID-19 in a discovery data set and 415 patients in a validation data set. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: We measured inter-rater reliability for RALE score annotations by different reviewers and examined for associations of consensus RALE scores with the level of respiratory support, demographics, physiologic variables, applied therapies, plasma host-response biomarkers, SARS-CoV-2 RNA load and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Inter-rater agreement for RALE scores improved from fair to excellent following reviewer training and feedback (intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.85 vs 0.93, respectively). In the discovery cohort, the required level of respiratory support at the time of CXR acquisition (supplemental oxygen or non-invasive ventilation (n=178); invasive-mechanical ventilation (n=234), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (n=13)) was significantly associated with RALE scores (median (IQR): 20.0 (14.1-26.7), 26.0 (20.5-34.0) and 44.5 (34.5-48.0), respectively, p<0.0001). Among invasively ventilated patients, RALE scores were significantly associated with worse respiratory mechanics (plateau and driving pressure) and gas exchange metrics (PaO2/FiO2 and ventilatory ratio), as well as higher plasma levels of IL-6, soluble receptor of advanced glycation end-products and soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 (p<0.05). RALE scores were independently associated with 90-day survival in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted HR 1.04 (1.02-1.07), p=0.002). We replicated the significant associations of RALE scores with baseline disease severity and mortality in the independent validation data set. CONCLUSIONS: With a reproducible method to measure radiographic severity in COVID-19, we found significant associations with clinical and physiologic severity, host inflammation and clinical outcomes. The incorporation of radiographic severity assessments in clinical decision-making may provide important guidance for prognostication and treatment allocation in COVID-19.

Trajectories of Host-Response Subphenotypes in Patients With COVID-19 Across the Spectrum of Respiratory Support.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 follow heterogeneous clinical trajectories, requiring different levels of respiratory support and experiencing diverse clinical outcomes. Differences in host immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection may account for the heterogeneous clinical course, but we have limited data on the dynamic evolution of systemic biomarkers and related subphenotypes. Improved understanding of the dynamic transitions of host subphenotypes in COVID-19 may allow for improved patient selection for targeted therapies. RESEARCH QUESTION: We examined the trajectories of host-response profiles in severe COVID-19 and evaluated their prognostic impact on clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In this prospective observational study, we enrolled 323 inpatients with COVID-19 receiving different levels of baseline respiratory support: (1) low-flow oxygen (37%), (2) noninvasive ventilation (NIV) or high-flow oxygen (HFO; 29%), (3) invasive mechanical ventilation (27%), and (4) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (7%). We collected plasma samples on enrollment and at days 5 and 10 to measure host-response biomarkers. We classified patients by inflammatory subphenotypes using two validated predictive models. We examined clinical, biomarker, and subphenotype trajectories and outcomes during hospitalization. RESULTS: IL-6, procalcitonin, and angiopoietin 2 persistently were elevated in patients receiving higher levels of respiratory support, whereas soluble receptor of advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) levels displayed the inverse pattern. Patients receiving NIV or HFO at baseline showed the most dynamic clinical trajectory, with 24% eventually requiring intubation and exhibiting worse 60-day mortality than patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline (67% vs 35%; P < .0001). sRAGE levels predicted NIV failure and worse 60-day mortality for patients receiving NIV or HFO, whereas IL-6 levels were predictive in all patients regardless of level of support (P < .01). Patients classified to a hyperinflammatory subphenotype at baseline (< 10%) showed worse 60-day survival (P < .0001) and 50% of them remained classified as hyperinflammatory at 5 days after enrollment. INTERPRETATION: Longitudinal study of the systemic host response in COVID-19 revealed substantial and predictive interindividual variability influenced by baseline levels of respiratory support.

Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) Scores are Highly Reproducible and Prognostic of Clinical Outcomes for Inpatients with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Chest imaging is necessary for diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia, but current risk stratification tools do not consider radiographic severity. We quantified radiographic heterogeneity among inpatients with COVID-19 with the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score on Chest X-rays (CXRs). METHODS: We performed independent RALE scoring by ≥2 reviewers on baseline CXRs from 425 inpatients with COVID-19 (discovery dataset), we recorded clinical variables and outcomes, and measured plasma host-response biomarkers and SARS-CoV-2 RNA load from subjects with available biospecimens. RESULTS: We found excellent inter-rater agreement for RALE scores (intraclass correlation co-efficient=0.93). The required level of respiratory support at the time of baseline CXRs (supplemental oxygen or non-invasive ventilation [n=178]; invasive-mechanical ventilation [n=234], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [n=13]) was significantly associated with RALE scores (median [interquartile range]: 20.0[14.1-26.7], 26.0[20.5-34.0] and 44.5[34.5-48.0], respectively, p<0.0001). Among invasively-ventilated patients, RALE scores were significantly associated with worse respiratory mechanics (plateau and driving pressure) and gas exchange metrics (PaO2/FiO2 and ventilatory ratio), as well as higher plasma levels of IL-6, sRAGE and TNFR1 levels (p<0.05). RALE scores were independently associated with 90-day survival in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted hazard ratio 1.04[1.02-1.07], p=0.002). We validated significant associations of RALE scores with baseline severity and mortality in an independent dataset of 415 COVID-19 inpatients. CONCLUSION: Reproducible assessment of radiographic severity revealed significant associations with clinical and physiologic severity, host-response biomarkers and clinical outcome in COVID-19 pneumonia. Incorporation of radiographic severity assessments may provide prognostic and treatment allocation guidance in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Trajectories of host-response biomarkers and inflammatory subphenotypes in COVID-19 patients across the spectrum of respiratory support.

Purpose: Enhanced understanding of the dynamic changes in the dysregulated inflammatory response in COVID-19 may help improve patient selection and timing for immunomodulatory therapies. Methods: We enrolled 323 COVID-19 inpatients on different levels of baseline respiratory support: i) Low Flow Oxygen (37%), ii) Non-Invasive Ventilation or High Flow Oxygen (NIV_HFO, 29%), iii) Invasive Mechanical Ventilation (IMV, 27%), and iv) Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO, 7%). We collected plasma samples upon enrollment and days 5 and 10 to measure host-response biomarkers. We classified subjects into inflammatory subphenotypes using two validated predictive models. We examined clinical, biomarker and subphenotype trajectories and outcomes during hospitalization. Results: IL-6, procalcitonin, and Angiopoietin-2 were persistently elevated in patients at higher levels of respiratory support, whereas sRAGE displayed the inverse pattern. Patients on NIV_HFO at baseline had the most dynamic clinical trajectory, with 26% eventually requiring intubation and exhibiting worse 60-day mortality than IMV patients at baseline (67% vs. 35%, p<0.0001). sRAGE levels predicted NIV failure and worse 60-day mortality for NIV_HFO patients, whereas IL-6 levels were predictive in IMV or ECMO patients. Hyper-inflammatory subjects at baseline (<10% by both models) had worse 60-day survival (p<0.0001) and 50% of them remained classified as hyper-inflammatory on follow-up sampling at 5 days post-enrollment. Receipt of combined immunomodulatory therapies (steroids and anti-IL6 agents) was associated with markedly increased IL-6 and lower Angiopoietin-2 levels (p<0.05). Conclusions: Longitudinal study of systemic host responses in COVID-19 revealed substantial and predictive inter-individual variability, influenced by baseline levels of respiratory support and concurrent immunomodulatory therapies.

Beyond race and place: distal sociological determinants of HIV disparities.

Informed behavior change as an HIV prevention tool has yielded unequal successes across populations. Despite decades of HIV education, some individuals remain at high risk. The mainstream media often portrays these risk factors as products of race and national borders; however, a rich body of recent literature proposes a host of complex social factors that influence behavior, including, but not limited to: poverty, income inequality, stigmatizing social institutions and health care access. We examined the relationship between numerous social indicators and HIV incidence across eighty large U.S. cities in 1990 and 2000. During this time, major correlating factors included income inequality, poverty, educational attainment, residential segregation and marriage rates. However, these ecological factors were weighted differentially across risk groups (e.g. heterosexual, intravenous drug use, men who have sex with men (MSM)). Heterosexual risk rose significantly with poor economic indicators, while MSM risk depended more heavily on anti-homosexual stigma (as measured by same-sex marriage laws). HIV incidence among black individuals correlated significantly with numerous economic factors but also with segregation and imbalances in the male:female ratio (often an effect of mass incarceration). Our results support an overall model of HIV ecology where poverty, income inequality and social inequality (in the form of institutionalized racism and anti-homosexual stigma) have over time developed into synergistic drivers of disease transmission in the U.S., inhibiting information-based prevention efforts. The relative weights of these distal factors vary over time and by HIV risk group. Our testable model may be more generally applicable within the U.S. and beyond.