Long-term follow-up of HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals in rural Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the effect of HIV on survival in rural Africa. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study with more than 10 years follow-up. METHODS: Individuals with known HIV status in the 1980s were identified from previous population surveys in Karonga District, northern Malawi. Follow-up studies were conducted in 1998-2000 to trace 197 HIV-positive and 396 age-sex-matched HIV-negative individuals and their spouses. RESULTS: Information was obtained on all but 11 index individuals. Half (302) were found and the others were reported to have died (161) or to be alive outside the district (119). Ten year survival was 36% in the HIV-positive cohort and 90% in the initially HIV-negative cohort. The death rate was 93.3 per 1000 person-years in the HIV-positive individuals, and 11.3 in the initially HIV-negative individuals. Survival time since the initial test in HIV-positive individuals decreased with age, but relative survival, compared with HIV-negative individuals, was similar across age groups. The effect of HIV on survival was similar in men and women. Spouses of HIV-positive individuals had four times the mortality rate, and among survivors, four times the HIV prevalence, of spouses of initially HIV-negative individuals. CONCLUSION: HIV-infected individuals had very high mortality rates, but one-third were still alive at 10 years. This is consistent with median survival from seroconversion being similar to that found in developed countries before antiretroviral therapy. Mortality rates in HIV-positive individuals increased with age, but relative mortality changed little with age.

Kinetics of delayed-type hypersensitivity to tuberculin induced by bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination in northern Malawi.

During 1986-1989, a bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine trial was carried out in northern Malawi. The effects of age, sex, and prevaccination delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) on the time course of the DTH response over 1-36 months after vaccination were studied in 2418 persons. DTH response increased rapidly, to peak at 31-90 days after vaccination, when most persons had a measurable response. This was followed by a marked decline by 181-365 days, particularly in those <15 years old at vaccination, followed by a more gradual decline. Prevaccination DTH was the single best predictor of postvaccination DTH. BCG-induced DTH responsiveness appears to decline more rapidly in tropical than in temperate environments. This may reflect high prevalence of exposure to other infections, which induce a Th2 bias or compete for "space" within the T lymphocyte compartment. The inability of some persons to mount a persistent DTH response probably reflects genetic background and/or environmental exposure history.

Early evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype C epidemic in rural Malawi.

We have tracked the early years of the evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic in a rural district of central east Africa from the first documented introductions of subtypes A, D, and C to the present predominance of subtype C. The earliest subtype C sequences ever reported are described. Blood samples were collected on filter papers from 1981 to 1984 and from 1987 to 1989 from more than 44,000 individuals living in two areas of Karonga District, Malawi. These samples included HIV-1-positive samples from 200 people. In 1982 to 1984, HIV-1 subtypes A, C, and D were all present, though in small numbers. By 1987 to 1989, 152 (90%) of a total of 168 sequences were subtype C and AC, AD, and DC recombinants had emerged. Four of the subtype C sequences from 1983 to 1984 were closely related and were found at the base of a large cluster of low diversity that by the late 1980s accounted for 40% of C sequences. The other two early C sequences fell into a separate and more diverse cluster. Three other clusters containing sequences from the late 1980s were identified. Each cluster contained at least one sample from a person who had recently arrived in the district. From 18 HIV-1-positive spouse pairs, 12 very closely related pairs of sequences were identified. We conclude that there were multiple introductions of HIV-1 with limited spread, followed by explosive growth of a subtype C cluster, probably arising from a single introduction in or before 1983.

BCG-induced increase in interferon-gamma response to mycobacterial antigens and efficacy of BCG vaccination in Malawi and the UK: two randomised controlled studies.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of BCG vaccines against pulmonary tuberculosis varies between populations, showing no protection in Malawi but 50-80% protection in the UK. To investigate the mechanism underlying these differences, randomised controlled studies were set up to measure vaccine-induced immune responsiveness to mycobacterial antigens in both populations. METHODS: 483 adolescents and young adults in Malawi and 180 adolescents in the UK were tested for interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) response to M tuberculosis purified protein derivative (PPD) in a whole blood assay, and for delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) skin test response to tuberculin PPD, before and 1 year after receiving BCG (Glaxo 1077) vaccination or placebo or no vaccine. FINDINGS: The percentages of the randomised individuals who showed IFN-gamma and DTH responses were higher in Malawi than in the UK pre-vaccination-ie, 61% (331/546) versus 22% (47/213) for IFN-gamma and 46% (236/517) versus 13% (27/211) for DTH. IFN-gamma responses increased more in the UK than in Malawi, with 83% (101/122) and 78% (251/321) respectively of the vaccinated groups responding, with similar distributions in the two populations 1 year post-vaccination. The DTH response increased following vaccination in both locations, but to a greater extent in the UK than Malawi. The IFN-gamma and DTH responses were strongly associated, except among vaccinees in Malawi. INTERPRETATION: The magnitude of the BCG-attributable increase in IFN-gamma responsiveness to M tuberculosis PPD, from before to 1 year post-vaccination, correlates better with the known levels of protection induced by immunisation with BCG than does the absolute value of the IFN-gamma or DTH response after vaccination. It is likely that differential sensitisation due to exposure to environmental mycobacteria is the most important determinant of the observed differences in protection by BCG between populations.

Gamma interferon responses induced by a panel of recombinant and purified mycobacterial antigens in healthy, non-mycobacterium bovis BCG-vaccinated Malawian young adults.

We have previously shown that young adults living in a rural area of northern Malawi showed greater gamma interferon (IFN-gamma) responses to purified protein derivatives (PPD) prepared from environmental mycobacteria than to PPD from Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In order to define the mycobacterial species to which individuals living in a rural African population have been exposed and sensitized, we tested T-cell recognition of recombinant and purified antigens from M. tuberculosis (38 kDa, MPT64, and ESAT-6), M. bovis (MPB70), M. bovis BCG (Ag85), and M. leprae (65 kDa, 35 kDa, and 18 kDa) in >600 non-M. bovis BCG-vaccinated young adults in the Karonga District of northern Malawi. IFN-gamma was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in day 6 supernatants of diluted whole-blood cultures. The recombinant M. leprae 35-kDa and 18-kDa and purified native M. bovis BCG Ag85 antigens induced the highest percentages of responders, though both leprosy and bovine tuberculosis are now rare in this population. The M. tuberculosis antigens ESAT-6 and MPT64 and the M. bovis antigen MPB70 induced the lowest percentages of responders. One of the subjects subsequently developed extrapulmonary tuberculosis; this individual had a 15-mm-diameter reaction to the Mantoux test and responded to M. tuberculosis PPD, Ag85, MPT64, and ESAT-6 but not to any of the leprosy antigens. We conclude that in this rural African population, exposure to M. tuberculosis or M. bovis is much less frequent than exposure to environmental mycobacteria such as M. avium, which have antigens homologous to the M. leprae 35-kDa and 18-kDa antigens. M. tuberculosis ESAT-6 showed the strongest association with the size of the Mantoux skin test induration, suggesting that among the three M. tuberculosis antigens tested it provided the best indication of exposure to, or infection with, M. tuberculosis.