Effect of Host-Switching on the Ecological and Evolutionary Patterns of Parasites.

Speciation via host-switching is a macroevolutionary process that emerges from a microevolutionary dynamic where individual parasites switch hosts, establish a new association, and reduce reproductive contact with the original parasite lineage. Phylogenetic distance and geographic distribution of the hosts have been shown to be determinants of the capacity and opportunity of the parasite to change hosts. Although speciation via host-switching has been reported in many host-parasite systems, its dynamic on the individual, population and community levels is poorly understood. Here we propose a theoretical model to simulate parasite evolution considering host-switching events on the microevolutionary scale, taking into account the macroevolutionary history of the hosts, to evaluate how host-switching can affect ecological and evolutionary patterns of parasites in empirical communities at regional and local scales. In the model, parasite individuals can switch hosts under variable intensity and have their evolution driven by mutation and genetic drift. Mating is sexual and only individuals that are sufficiently similar can produce offspring. We assumed that parasite evolution occurs at the same evolutionary time scale as their hosts, and that the intensity of host-switching decreases as the host species differentiate. Ecological and evolutionary patterns were characterized by the turnover of parasite species among host species, and parasite evolutionary tree imbalance respectively. We found a range of host-switching intensity that reproduces ecological and evolutionary patterns observed in empirical communities. Our results showed that turnover decreased as host-switching intensity increased, with low variation among the model replications. On the other hand, tree imbalance showed wide variation and non-monotonic tendency. We concluded that tree imbalance was sensitive to stochastic events, whereas turnover may be a good indicator of host-switching. We found that local communities corresponded to higher host-switching intensity when compared to regional communities, highlighting that spatial scale is a limitation for host-switching. [Dispersal of parasites, opportunity and capacity of interaction, phylogenetic conservatism, and community structure.].

Position of Polyclithrum within Gyrodactylidae (Monogenoidea): incongruences between morphological and molecular phylogenies.

This study aimed to enhance our understanding in monogenoid evolution by using morphological and molecular data to determine kinship relationships between species and changes in morphological structures over time. We focused on variations in characteristics among the organisms of the family Gyrodactylidae, concentrating on the phylogenetic position of Polyclithrum with other genera in the family. We collected specimens of Polyclithrum from the striped mullet, Mugil cephalus and Swingleus, and Fundulotrema specimens from mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus in estuarine systems of South Carolina, United States. In addition, we analyzed them and other genera (including e.g., Mormyrogyrodactylus, Gyrodactyloides, and Macrogyrodactylus) using both morphological and molecular (18S rDNA) approaches. We performed phylogenetic trees based on Maximum Parsymony, Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference, and constructed a character morphological matrix by Parsimony Reconstruction of Ancestral Character States method. Our results suggest a homoplastic origin with evolutionary convergences in characters, revealing that there is inconsistency between our data and previously published works based solely on morphological structures of the group. The homoplasy scenario found in Gyrodactylidae can be a result of the limited set of putative homologous morphological features. However, differences between the phylogenies based on morphology and those based on molecular data may arise from both databases. While morphology remains essential in understanding the evolution of this group, molecular data, otherwise, provide a less biased source of information for constructing phylogenetic hypotheses. Combining these data facilitates a better comprehension of the homologous status of morphological features and to understand Gyrodactylidae evolutionary history.

Hexabothriidae and Monocotylidae (Monogenoidea) from the gills of neonate hammerhead sharks (Sphyrnidae) Sphyrna gilberti, Sphyrna lewini and their hybrids from the western North Atlantic Ocean.

Neonates of hammerhead sharks (Sphyrnidae), Sphyrna lewini (Griffith and Smith, 1834), the sympatric cryptic species, Sphyrna gilberti Quattro et al., 2013, and their hybrids were captured in the western North Atlantic, along the coast of South Carolina, USA, between 2018 and 2019 and examined for gill monogenoids. Parasites were identified and redescribed from the gills of 79 neonates, and DNA sequences from partial fragments of the nuclear 28S ribosomal RNA (rDNA) and cytochrome c oxidase I mitochondrial DNA (COI) genes were generated to confirm species identifications. Three species of monogenoids from Hexabothriidae Price, 1942 and Monocotylidae Taschenberg, 1879 were determined and redescribed. Two species of Hexabothriidae, Erpocotyle microstoma (Brooks, 1934) and Erpocotyle sphyrnae (MacCallum, 1931), infecting both species of Sphyrna and hybrids; and 1 species of Monocotylidae, Loimosina wilsoni Manter, 1944, infecting only S. lewini and hybrids. Loimosina wilsoni 28S rDNA sequences matched those of Loimosina sp. from the southern coast of Brazil. Based on limited morphological analysis, Loimosina parawilsoni is likely a junior synonym of L. wilsoni. This is the first taxonomic study of monogenoids infecting S. gilberti and hybrids of S. gilberti and S. lewini.

Neotropical Monogenoidea 64. Cosmetocleithrum falsunilatum sp. n. (Monogenoidea, Dactylogyridae) parasite of the gills of Megalodoras uranoscopus (Siluriformes, Doradidae) from the Solimões river, near Iquitos, Peru.

Megalodoras uranoscopus (Eigenmann & Eigenmann) (Siluriformes, Doradidae) (the giant-talking catfish or the giant-raphael catfish), from the Peruvian Amazon, hosts a new species of Cosmetocleithrum described herein as Cosmetocleithrum falsunilatum sp. n. The male copulatory organ of the new species closely resembles that of Unilatus spp. - with multiple tight loops and non-articulated accessory piece - which reveals its morphological uniqueness among members of Cosmetocleithrum. A phylogenetic analysis using 28S rDNA of available sequences suggests that Cosmetocleithrum is composed by two basal clades, one of them composed by sequences of the new species and C. trachydorasi.

The role of ecological opportunity in shaping host-parasite networks.

Despite the great interest to quantify the structure of host-parasite interaction networks, the real influence of some factors such as taxonomy, host body size and ecological opportunity remains poorly understood. In this paper, we investigate the general patterns of organization and structure of interactions in two anuran-parasite networks in the Brazilian Pantanal (seasonally flooded environment) and Atlantic Forest (non-flooded forest). We present theoretical models to test whether the structures of these host-parasite interaction networks are influenced by neutrality, host taxonomy and host body size. Subsequently, we calculated metrics of connectance, nestedness and modularity to characterize the network structure. We demonstrated the structure networks were influenced mainly by body size and taxonomy of the host. Moreover, our results showed that the seasonally flooded environment present networks with higher connectance/nestedness and lower modularity compared to the other environment. The results also suggest that seasonal floods may promote ecological opportunities for new species associations.

Rapid divergence, molecular evolution, and morphological diversification of coastal host-parasite systems from southern Brazil.

This study assessed the role of historical processes on the geographic isolation, molecular evolution, and morphological diversification of host-parasite populations from the southern Brazilian coast. Adult specimens of Scleromystax barbatus and Scleromystax macropterus were collected from the sub-basin of the Nhundiaquara River and the sub-basin of the Paranaguá Bay, state of Paraná, Brazil. Four species of Gyrodactylus were recovered from the body surface of both host species. Morphometric analysis of Gyrodactylus spp. and Scleromystax spp. indicated that subpopulations of parasites and hosts could be distinguished from different sub-basins and locations, but the degree of morphological differentiation seems to be little related to geographic distance between subpopulations. Phylogenetic relationships based on DNA sequences of Gyrodactylus spp. and Scleromystax spp. allowed distinguishing lineages of parasites and hosts from different sub-basins. However, the level of genetic structuring of parasites was higher in comparison to host species. Evidence of positive selection in mtDNA sequences is likely associated with local adaptation of lineages of parasites and hosts. A historical demographic analysis revealed that populations of Gyrodactylus and Scleromystax have expanded in the last 250 000 years. The genetic variation of parasites and hosts is consistent with population-specific selection, population expansions, and recent evolutionary co-divergence.

Gyrodactylus lilianae n. sp. (Polyonchoinea: Gyrodactylidae) from Rhamdia quelen (Quoy & Gaimard) (Siluriformes: Heptapteridae) from southern Brazil: a potential nuisance for aquaculture.

Species of Monogenoidea (Platyhelminthes) are in its majority ectoparasites of marine and freshwater fishes. Many species of the group can promote great economic losses to fish production systems worldwide. The present study describes a new species, Gyrodactylus lilianae n. sp., from the body surface, fins and barbels of a captive South American catfish, Rhamdia quelen (Quoy & Gaimard) (Siluriformes: Heptapteridae) from southern Brazil. The new species is morphologically similar to Neotropical species of Gyrodactylus von Nordmann, 1832 from Siluriformes from which it differs most conspicuously by the morphology of the hook with a pronounced convex heel, somewhat depressed, slightly pointed toe, and a small distal bulb. The identity of the new species is also strongly supported by phylogenetic analysis based on cytochrome c oxidase subunit 2 mitochondrial gene (cox2) sequences and the rDNA fragment ITS1-5.8-ITS2. Infections with the new species in captive R. quelen juveniles were considered the main causative agent of observed mortalities. Tissue damage caused by G. lilianae n. sp. apparently facilitated the occurrence of secondary infections by protists (Ichthyophthirius multifiliis) and bacteria (Aeromonas hydrophila).

Is Marine Dispersion of the Lethargic Crab Disease Possible? Assessing the Tolerance of Exophiala cancerae to a Broad Combination of Salinities, Temperatures, and Exposure Times.

Since 1997, an emergent fungal disease named lethargic crab disease (LCD) has decimated stocks of the edible mangrove land crab Ucides cordatus (Linnaeus, 1763) (Brachyura: Ocypodidae) along the Brazilian coast, threatening the mangrove ecosystem and causing socioeconomic impacts. Evidence from a variety of sources suggests that the black yeast Exophiala cancerae (Herpotrichiellaceae, Chaetothyriales) has been responsible for such epizootic events. Based on the spatiotemporal patterns of the LCD outbreaks, the well-established surface ocean currents, and the range of ecological traits of Exophiala spp., a marine dispersal hypothesis may be proposed. Using in vitro experiments, we tested the survival and growth of E. cancerae CBS 120420 in a broad combination of salinities, temperatures, and exposure times. While variation in salinity did not significantly affect the growth of colony-forming units (CFUs) (P > 0.05), long exposure times visibly influenced an increase in CFUs growth (P < 0.05). However, higher temperature (30 °C) caused a reduction of about 1.2-fold in CFUs growth (P < 0.05). This result suggests that sea surface temperatures either above or below the optimum growth range of E. cancerae could play a key role in the apparent north-south limits in the geographical distribution of LCD outbreaks. In light of our results, we conclude that a fundamental step toward the understanding of LCD epidemiological dynamics should comprise a systematic screening of E. cancerae in estuarine and coastal waters.

Postglacial expansion pathways of red mangrove, Rhizophora mangle, in the Caribbean Basin and Florida.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a period of massive range contraction. Post-LGM, water-dispersed coastal species, including the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle), expanded poleward as propagules were transported by ocean currents. We assessed postglacial marine expansion pathways for R. mangle within the Caribbean Basin and Florida. METHODS: Six microsatellite loci were used to genotype 237 individuals from nine R. mangle populations in the Caribbean, Florida, and Northwest Africa. We evaluated genetic variation, population structure, gene flow along alternative post-LGM expansion pathways to Florida, and potential long-distance dispersal (LDD) from West Africa to Caribbean islands. KEY RESULTS: These R. mangle populations had substantial genetic structure (FST = 0.37, P < 0.0001) with three discrete population clusters (Caribbean mainland, Caribbean islands, and Florida). Genetic connectivity along the mainland pathway (Caribbean mainland to Florida) vs. limited gene dispersal along the Antilles Island pathway (Caribbean islands to Florida) supported Florida recolonization from Caribbean mainland sources. Genetic similarity of Northwest Africa and two Caribbean islands provided evidence for trans-Atlantic LDD. We did not find a pattern of decreasing genetic diversity with latitude. CONCLUSIONS: We outline a complex expansion history for R. mangle, with discrete pathways of recolonization for Florida and Caribbean islands. Contrary to expectation, connectivity to putative Caribbean mainland refugial populations via ocean currents, and not latitude, appears to dictate genetic diversity within Caribbean island and Florida R. mangle. These findings provide a framework for further investigation of additional water-dispersed neotropical species, and insights for management initiatives.

Drivers of parasite sharing among Neotropical freshwater fishes.

Because host-parasite interactions are so ubiquitous, it is of primary interest for ecologists to understand the factors that generate, maintain and constrain these associations. Phylogenetic comparative studies have found abundant evidence for host-switching to relatively unrelated hosts, sometimes related to diversification events, in a variety of host-parasite systems. For Monogenoidea (Platyhelminthes) parasites, it has been suggested that the co-speciation model alone cannot explain host occurrences, hence host-switching and/or non-vicariant modes of speciation should be associated with the origins and diversification of several monogenoid taxa. The factors that shape broad patterns of parasite sharing were investigated using path analysis as a way to generate hypotheses about the origins of host-parasite interactions between monogenoid gill parasites and Neotropical freshwater fishes. Parasite sharing was assessed from an interaction matrix, and explanatory variables included phylogenetic relationships, environmental preferences, biological traits and geographic distribution for each host species. Although geographic distribution of hosts and host ecology are important factors to understand host-parasite interactions, especially within host lineages that share a relatively recent evolutionary history, phylogeny had the strongest overall direct effect on parasite sharing. Phylogenetic contiguity of host communities may allow a 'stepping-stone' mode of host-switching, which increases parasite sharing. Our results reinforce the importance of including evolutionary history in the study of ecological associations, including emerging infectious diseases risk assessment.

Two new species of Ergasilus Nordmann, 1832 (Copepoda: Ergasilidae) and a redescription of Ergasilus salmini Thatcher & Brazil-Sato, 2008 from Salminus brasiliensis Cuvier and S. franciscanus Lima & Britsky (Teleostei: Characidae) in Brazil.

Three species of Ergasilus Nordmann, 1832 are reported from the gills of Salminus spp. in Brazil. Ergasilus salmini Thatcher & Brazil-Sato, 2008 from Salminus brasiliensis Cuvier is redescribed, based on examination of paratypes. The study revealed morphological differences from the original description, especially in the morphology of the cephalothorax and the ornamentation of antenna, antennule and legs. Ergasilus lacusauratus n. sp. described from S. brasiliensis in lake Lagoa Dourada (Paraná) differs from the only known species from this host group, E. salmini, in the shape and size of the cephalothorax and the general morphology of the egg-sacs. Ergasilus sinefalcatus n. sp. from S. franciscanus Lima & Britsky in River São Francisco (Minas Gerais) closely resembles E. pitalicus, E. coatiarus and E. leporinidis in the lack of a pectinate seta on the first exopodal segment, a feature common in species of Ergasilus in the Neotropics. Ergasilus sinefalcatus n. sp. differs from these species in the presence of a spiniform process on the coxae of legs 2, 3 and 4, an ornament never reported from freshwater species of Ergasilus in South America.

Patterns of interaction between Neotropical freshwater fishes and their gill Monogenoidea (Platyhelminthes).

Using network analysis, we looked for broad patterns of distribution of Monogenoidea gill parasites on Neotropical freshwater fishes within a host phylogenetic framework. We analyzed a database of Monogenoidea parasitizing fishes from Neotropical rivers, from 23 watersheds, based on species descriptions published until 2011. Host-parasite interactions were organized into five matrices grouping species at different taxonomic levels. The network of interactions between host families and parasite genera was significantly modular and revealed that each fish order has a unique composition of parasite genera. Hence, interactions between lower taxa were analyzed separately for the largest fish orders (Perciformes, Siluriformes, and Characiformes). Networks tended to be loosely connected and organized in modules. Despite the putative high host specificity of monogenoids, some have a wider host range that includes distantly related host species. Among the hosts, the clade composed by the piranhas (Serrasalmus spp. and related species, Serrasalmidae) stands out in terms of parasite richness per host species, resulting in a more connected network. The history of the lineages of each host order within Neotropical freshwaters seems to have a great influence on the extent of parasite sharing. The observed modularity was influenced by both spatial structure and phylogenetic relatedness of species. In average, 37 % of modules of networks between host species and parasite genera were associated with a particular river basin and 63 % of modules were associated with a host family. Hence, spatial structure determines the co-occurrence of host and parasite species, but their evolutionary history is the main factor defining which interactions are possible.

Neotropical Monogenoidea. 58. Three new species of Gyrodactylus (Gyrodactylidae) from Scleromystax spp. (Callichthyidae) and the proposal of COII gene as an additional fragment for barcoding gyrodactylids.

Based on molecular markers (COII and ITS1-ITS2) and morphological data, we describe three new Neotropical species of Gyrodactylus von Nordmann, 1832 from Scleromystax barbatus (Quoy et Gaimard) and Scleromystax macropterus (Regan) from southern Brazil. The three new species can be distinguished from each other by sequences of both molecular markers and morphology of hooks and anchors. Gyrodactylus bueni sp. n. is characterised by having hook with shaft curved, heel straight, shelf straight, toe pointed, anchor with superficial root slender, elongate and male copulatory organ armed with two rows of spinelets. Gyrodactylus major sp. n. presents hook with shaft, point curved, proximal shaft straight, heel convex, shelf convex, toe concave, anchor with superficial root robust and male copulatory organ armed with two rows of spinelets. Gyrodactylus scleromystaci sp. n. presents hook with shaft, point recurved, heel convex, shelf convex, toe pointed, anchor with superficial root curved and male copulatory organ armed with two rows of spinelets. These species appear to be closely related to other species of Gyrodactylus known from other species of Callichthyidae. These new species, however, differ by the comparative morphology of the haptoral hard structures and molecular data. Comparative analysis of sequences from these species of Gyrodactylus suggests that the COII gene may represent an important marker for the taxonomy of species of Gyrodactylidae and, perhaps, for species of other lineages of Monogenoidea.

Neotropical Monogenoidea 59. Polyonchoineans from Characidium spp. (Characiformes: Crenuchidae) from southern Brazil.

Gyrodactylidae and Dactylogyridae (Monogenoidea) are described or reported from three species of Characidium Reinhardt (Crenuchidae), small species of Characiformes, from streams located in southern Brazilian states. Gyrodactylus carolinae sp. n. (Gyrodactylidae) is described from the body surface of Characidium lanei Travassos (type host), C. pterostictum Gomez, and Characidium sp. from streams in the states of Paraná and São Paulo. This new species closely resembles species of Gyrodactylus von Nordmann, 1832 described from species of Poeciliidae, from which it differs by the morphology of the hooks and nucleotide sequences of ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 rDNA. Gyrodactylus inesperatus sp. n. is described from the body surface of Characidium sp. from a stream in the State of São Paulo. The latter new species is characterised by lacking a shield on the superficial bar and by the morphology of the hooks, both unique characteristics for Neotropical species of Gyrodactylus. Marumbius gen. n. (Dactylogyridae) is proposed to accommodate two species, M. dorsivaginatus sp. n. from the gills of Characidium pterostictum (type host) and C. lanei, and M. amplexus sp. n. from the gills of C. lanei (all from the state of Paraná). Both species are characterised by having dorsal vagina, hook pairs 2-4, 6 and 7 composed by two subunits, hook pairs 1 and 5 lacking proximal subunit, and by the length of proximal subunits (when present) varying among hook pairs, completely or partially overlapping gonads, and male copulatory organ (MCO) represented by an incomplete coil of a sclerotized tube articulated to the accessory piece by a copulatory ligament. Cacatuocotyle paranaensis Boeger, Domingues et Kritsky, 1997 is reported from C. lanei at low prevalence in the Rio Marumbi (state of Paraná). The Monogenoidea that parasitize species of Characidium are members of several independent lineages, some of distant evolutionary relationships, suggesting a complex origin for this parasitic fauna.

Black yeast biota in the mangrove, in search of the origin of the lethargic crab disease (LCD).

Knowledge of natural ecology is essential for a better understanding of pathogenicity and opportunism in black yeast-like fungi. Although etiological agents of diseases caused by these fungi are supposed to originate from the environment, their isolation from nature is difficult. This is probably due to their oligotrophic nature, low competitive ability, and, overall, insufficient data on their natural habitat. We obtained environmental samples from mangrove areas where mortalities by lethargic crab disease (LCD) are reported and areas without disease recorded. Isolation of chaetothyrialean black yeasts and relatives was performed using a highly selective protocol. Species-specific primers were used to determine if these isolates represented Exophiala cancerae or Fonsecaea brasiliensis, two proven agents of LCD, in order to test hypotheses about the origin of the disease. Isolates, identified by morphology as Fonsecaea- or Exophiala-like, were tested specific diagnostic markers for the fungi associated with LCD. Although several black fungi were isolated, the main causative agent of the LCD, E. cancerae, was not found. Molecular markers for F. brasiliensis revealed 10 positive bands for isolates from biofilms on mangrove leaves, branches, and aerial roots, of which four were confirmed by ITS sequencing. The absence of E. cancerae in environmental samples suggests that the species is dependent on the crab, as a genuine pathogen, different from F. brasiliensis, which is probably not dependent on the host species, U. cordatus. However, we did not attempt isolation from the marine water, which may represent the pathway of dispersion of the black yeast species between neighbor mangroves.

Neotropical Monogenoidea. 57. Revision and phylogenetic position of Scleroductus Jara & Cone, 1989 (Gyrodactylidae), with descriptions of new species from the Guatemalan chulin Rhamdia guatemalensis (Günther) (Siluriformes: Heptapteridae) in Mexico and the barred sorubim Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum (Linnaeus) (Siluriformes: Pimelodidae) in Brazil.

The diagnosis of Scleroductus Jara & Cone, 1989 (Gyrodactylidae) is amended to include viviparous species having a large spine associated with the ejaculatory duct within the male copulatory organ, two band-like projections originating from the posterior margin of the superficial bar and hooks evenly distributed along the haptoral margins. Two new species of Scleroductus are described from the external surfaces of siluriform fishes of Mexico and Brazil: Scleroductus lyrocleithrum n. sp. from the Guatemalan chulin Rhamdia guatemalensis (Günther) (Heptapteridae) in a cenote on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico; and Scleroductus angularis n. sp. from the barred sorubim Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum (Linnaeus) (Pimelodidae) in the Rio Tocantins, Tocantins, Brazil. Scleroductus sp. is recorded from the jundiá Rhamdia quelen (Quoy & Gaimard) (Heptapteridae) in the Iguaçu drainage of southern Brazil. Phylogenetic analyses of 18S rDNA suggest that Scleroductus (represented in the analyses by Scleroductus sp. from R. quelen), Ieredactylus Schelkle, Paladini, Shinn, King, Johnson, van Oosterhout, Mohammed & Cable, 2011 (represented by its type-species) and Gyrodactyloides Bychowsky, 1947 (represented by G. bychowskii Al'bova, 1948) comprise the sister taxon to the remaining viviparous gyrodactylids, with Scleroductus serving as the sister group to Ieredactylus + Gyrodactyloides. The clade containing the three taxa is supported by two putative synapomorphic features: two band-like projections (R1 sclerites) originating from the posterior margin of the superficial bar and a large spine associated with the ejaculatory duct within the male copulatory organ.

Two new species of protogyrodactylus (Monogenoidea: Dactylogyridae) from the gills of Gerres nigri (Teleostei: Gerreidae) from Senegal.

Protogyrodactylus ethiopicus sp. n. and P. kritskyi sp. n. are described from the gills of Gerres nigri Günther (Gerreidae, Perciformes) captured from the estuary of the Sine-Saloum River (Senegal, West Africa). These new species differ from previously described species within the genus by a mid- or dextro-ventral vaginal opening (dextral in all other species). They are part of a morphological species group within Protogyrodactylus Johnston et Tiegs, 1922 that has the tip of the superficial root of the ventral anchor resembling a hook and two anterior projections on the anterior margin of the ventral bar. Protogyrodactylus ethiopicus differs from the remaining species in this group mainly by the morphology of the base of the male copulatory organ (MCO), which is disk-shaped, and the shape of the anterior projections of the ventral bar (round in the new species and relatively elongate in the other species of the group). The other new species, P. kritskyi, differs from all others in the same morphological group in having a MCO with a greatly expanded base that bears a heel-like subterminal sclerotization.

'Accidents waiting to happen'-Insights from a simple model on the emergence of infectious agents in new hosts.

This study evaluates through modelling the possible individual and combined effect of three populational parameters of pathogens (reproduction rate; rate of novelty emergence; and propagule size) on the colonization of new host species-putatively the most fundamental process leading to the emergence of new infectious diseases. The results are analysed under the theoretical framework of the Stockholm Paradigm using IBM simulations to better understand the evolutionary dynamics of the pathogen population and the possible role of Ecological Fitting. The simulations suggest that all three parameters positively influence the success of colonization of new hosts by a novel parasite population, but contrary to the prevailing belief, the rate of novelty emergence (e.g. mutations) is the least important factor. Maximization of all parameters results in a synergetic facilitation of the colonization and emulates the expected scenario for pathogenic microorganisms. The simulations also provide theoretical support for the retention of the capacity of fast-evolving lineages to retro-colonize their previous host species/lineage by ecological fitting. Capacity is, thus, much larger than we can anticipate. Hence, the results support the empirical observations that opportunity of encounter (i.e. the breakdown in mechanisms for ecological isolation) is a fundamental determinant to the emergence of new associations-especially Emergent Infectious Diseases-and the dynamics of host exploration, as observed in SARS-CoV-2. Insights on the dynamics of Emergent Infectious Diseases derived from the simulations and from the Stockholm Paradigm are discussed.

Emerging infectious disease: An underappreciated area of strategic concern for food security.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) increasingly threaten global food security and public health. Despite technological breakthroughs, we are losing the battle with (re)emerging diseases as treatment costs and production losses rise. A horizon scan of diseases of crops, livestock, seafood and food-borne illness suggests these costs are unsustainable. The paradigm of coevolution between pathogens and particular hosts teaches that emerging diseases occur only when pathogens evolve specific capacities that allow them to move to new hosts. EIDs ought to be rare and unpredictable, so crisis response is the best we can do. Alternatively, the Stockholm Paradigm suggests that the world is full of susceptible but unexposed hosts that pathogens could infect, given the opportunity. Global climate change, globalized trade and travel, urbanization and land-use changes (often associated with biodiversity loss) increase those opportunities, making EID frequent. We can, however, anticipate their arrival in new locations and their behaviour once they have arrived. We can 'find them before they find us', mitigating their impacts. The DAMA (Document, Assess, Monitor, Act) protocol alters the current reactive stance and embodies proactive solutions to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of EID, extending human and material resources and buying time for development of new vaccinations, medications and control measures.