A Bayesian framework for virtual comparative trials and bioequivalence assessments.

Introduction: In virtual bioequivalence (VBE) assessments, pharmacokinetic models informed with in vitro data and verified with small clinical trials' data are used to simulate otherwise unfeasibly large trials. Simulated VBE trials are assessed in a frequentist framework as if they were real despite the unlimited number of virtual subjects they can use. This may adequately control consumer risk but imposes unnecessary risks on producers. We propose a fully Bayesian model-integrated VBE assessment framework that circumvents these limitations. Methods: We illustrate our approach with a case study on a hypothetical paliperidone palmitate (PP) generic long-acting injectable suspension formulation using a validated population pharmacokinetic model published for the reference formulation. BE testing, study power, type I and type II error analyses or their Bayesian equivalents, and safe-space analyses are demonstrated. Results: The fully Bayesian workflow is more precise than the frequentist workflow. Decisions about bioequivalence and safe space analyses in the two workflows can differ markedly because the Bayesian analyses are more accurate. Discussion: A Bayesian framework can adequately control consumer risk and minimize producer risk . It rewards data gathering and model integration to make the best use of prior information. The frequentist approach is less precise but faster to compute, and it can still be used as a first step to narrow down the parameter space to explore in safe-space analyses.

A guide to developing population files for physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling in the Simcyp Simulator.

The Simcyp Simulator is a software platform widely used in the pharmaceutical industry to conduct stochastic physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. This approach has the advantage of combining routinely generated in vitro data on drugs and drug products with knowledge of biology and physiology parameters to predict a priori potential pharmacokinetic changes in absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion for populations of interest. Combining such information with pharmacodynamic knowledge of drugs enables planning for potential dosage adjustment when clinical studies are feasible. Although the conduct of dedicated clinical studies in some patient groups (e.g., with hepatic or renal diseases) is part of the regulatory path for drug development, clinical studies for all permutations of covariates potentially affecting pharmacokinetics are impossible to perform. The role of PBPK in filling the latter gap is becoming more appreciated. This tutorial describes the different input parameters required for the creation of a virtual population giving robust predictions of likely changes in pharmacokinetics. It also highlights the considerations needed to qualify the models for such contexts of use. Two case studies showing the step-by-step development and application of population files for obese or morbidly obese patients and individuals with Crohn's disease are provided as the backbone of our tutorial to give some hands-on and real-world examples.

Mapping Interindividual Variability of Toxicodynamics Using High-Throughput Transcriptomics and Primary Human Hepatocytes from Fifty Donors.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the variability across the human population with respect to toxicodynamic responses after exposure to chemicals, such as environmental toxicants or drugs, is essential to define safety factors for risk assessment to protect the entire population. Activation of cellular stress response pathways are early adverse outcome pathway (AOP) key events of chemical-induced toxicity and would elucidate the estimation of population variability of toxicodynamic responses. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to map the variability in cellular stress response activation in a large panel of primary human hepatocyte (PHH) donors to aid in the quantification of toxicodynamic interindividual variability to derive safety uncertainty factors. METHODS: High-throughput transcriptomics of over 8,000 samples in total was performed covering a panel of 50 individual PHH donors upon 8 to 24 h exposure to broad concentration ranges of four different toxicological relevant stimuli: tunicamycin for the unfolded protein response (UPR), diethyl maleate for the oxidative stress response (OSR), cisplatin for the DNA damage response (DDR), and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) for NF-κB signaling. Using a population mixed-effect framework, the distribution of benchmark concentrations (BMCs) and maximum fold change were modeled to evaluate the influence of PHH donor panel size on the correct estimation of interindividual variability for the various stimuli. RESULTS: Transcriptome mapping allowed the investigation of the interindividual variability in concentration-dependent stress response activation, where the average of BMCs had a maximum difference of 864-, 13-, 13-, and 259-fold between different PHHs for UPR, OSR, DDR, and NF-κB signaling-related genes, respectively. Population modeling revealed that small PHH panel sizes systematically underestimated the variance and gave low probabilities in estimating the correct human population variance. Estimated toxicodynamic variability factors of stress response activation in PHHs based on this dataset ranged between 1.6 and 6.3. DISCUSSION: Overall, by combining high-throughput transcriptomics and population modeling, improved understanding of interindividual variability in chemical-induced activation of toxicity relevant stress pathways across the human population using a large panel of plated cryopreserved PHHs was established, thereby contributing toward increasing the confidence of in vitro-based prediction of adverse responses, in particular hepatotoxicity. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11891.