Immune interactions and heterogeneity in transmission drives the pathogen-mediated invasion of grey squirrels in the UK.

Mathematical models highlighted the importance of pathogen-mediated invasion, with the replacement of red squirrels by squirrelpox virus (SQPV) carrying grey squirrels in the UK, a well-known example. In this study, we combine new epidemiological models, with a range of infection characteristics, with recent longitudinal field and experimental studies on the SQPV dynamics in red and grey squirrel populations to better infer the mechanistic basis of the disease interaction. A key finding is that a model with either partial immunity or waning immunity and reinfection, where individuals become seropositive on the second exposure to infection, that up to now has been shown in experimental data only, can capture the key aspects of the field study observations. By fitting to SQPV epidemic observations in isolated red squirrel populations, we can infer that SQPV transmission between red squirrels is significantly (4×) higher than the transmission between grey squirrels and as a result our model shows that disease-mediated replacement of red squirrels by greys is considerably more rapid than replacement in the absence of SQPV. Our findings recover the key results of the previous model studies, which highlights the value of simple strategic models that are appropriate when there are limited data, but also emphasise the likely complexity of immune interactions in wildlife disease and how models can help infer disease processes from field data.

Host lifespan and the evolution of resistance to multiple parasites.

Hosts are typically challenged by multiple parasites, but to date theory on the evolution of resistance has mainly focused on single infections. We develop a series of models that examine the impact of multiple parasites on the evolution of resistance under the assumption that parasites coexist at the host population scale as a consequence of superinfection. In this way, we are able to explicitly examine the impact of ecological dynamics on the evolutionary outcome. We use our models to address a key question of how host lifespan affects investment in resistance to multiple parasites. We show that investment in costly resistance depends on the specificity of the immune response and on whether or not the focal parasite leads to more acute infection than the co-circulating parasite. A key finding is that investment in resistance always increases as the immune response becomes more general independently of whether it is the focal or the co-circulating parasite that exploits the host most aggressively. Long-lived hosts always invest more than short-lived hosts in both general resistance and resistance that is specific to relatively acute focal parasites. However, for specific resistance to parasites that are less acute than co-circulating parasites it is the short-lived hosts that are predicted to invest most. We show that these results apply whatever the mode of defence, that is whether it is through avoidance or through increased recovery, with or without acquired immunity, or through acquired immunity itself. As a whole, our results emphasize the importance of considering multiple parasites in determining optimal immune investment in eco-evolutionary systems.

The epidemiological feedbacks critical to the evolution of host immunity.

We examine in detail how epidemiological feedbacks combine with costs and benefits to determine the evolution of resistance by systematically analysing continuously stable strategies (CSS) for different host-parasite frameworks. The mode of resistance (innate versus acquired), the nature of the host (i.e. life-history and immunological memory) and the nature of the disease (effects on fertility or mortality) all impact on the feedbacks that are critical to the evolution of resistance. By identifying relationships between CSS investment and the underlying epidemiological feedback for each mode of resistance in each framework, we distil complex feedbacks into simple combinations of selection pressures. When the parasite does not affect fertility, CSS investment reflects only the benefit of resistance and we explain why this is markedly different for innate and acquired resistance. If infection has no effect on host fertility, CSS investment in acquired immunity increases with the square of disease prevalence. While in contrast for evolving innate resistance, CSS investment is greatest at intermediate prevalence. When disease impacts fertility, only a fraction of the host population reproduce, and this introduces new ecological feedbacks to both the cost of resistance and the damage from infection. The multiple feedbacks in this case lead to the alternative result that the higher the abundance of infecteds, the higher the investment in innate resistance. A key insight is that maximal investment occurs at intermediate lifespans in a range of different host-parasite interactions, but for disparate reasons which can only be understood by a detailed analysis of the feedbacks. We discuss the extension of our approach to structured host populations and parasite community dynamics.

Spatial heterogeneity lowers rather than increases host-parasite specialization.

Abiotic environmental heterogeneity can promote the evolution of diverse resource specialists, which in turn may increase the degree of host-parasite specialization. We coevolved Pseudomonas fluorescens and lytic phage ϕ2 in spatially structured populations, each consisting of two interconnected subpopulations evolving in the same or different nutrient media (homogeneous and heterogeneous environments, respectively). Counter to the normal expectation, host-parasite specialization was significantly lower in heterogeneous compared with homogeneous environments. This result could not be explained by dispersal homogenizing populations, as this would have resulted in the heterogeneous treatments having levels of specialization equal to or greater than that of the homogeneous environments. We argue that selection for costly generalists is greatest when the coevolving species are exposed to diverse environmental conditions and that this can provide an explanation for our results. A simple coevolutionary model of this process suggests that this can be a general mechanism by which environmental heterogeneity can reduce rather than increase host-parasite specialization.

Mixed shift rotations, sleep, burnout and well-being in professions similar to radiographers: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Delivering 24 h healthcare requires rotational shift work from doctors and the medical imaging team, while contributing to safe and timely care of patients. Additional service pressure and staff shortfall leads to workload pressures, adjusted shift patterns and risk of burnout. Evidence should be sought to the effects of this work on staff. METHODS: This systematic review followed PRISMA reporting guidelines, using a convergent mixed methods approach according to Guidance from Joanna Briggs International. Quantitative trends and results were qualified in order to thematically analyse in conjunction with qualitative data and discussed together in context. Following initial searching, returned articles were screened by title and abstract. A team of 3 reviewers undertook blinded critical appraisal of those suitable, with quality assurance from a 4th team member. Papers passing a threshold of 75% on JBI appraisal tools were accepted for synthesis. Data extraction of appropriate articles retrieved was undertaken in parallel. RESULTS: Following screening and critical appraisal, 13 studies were returned focusing exclusively on Non Consultant Doctors. No studies investigated diagnostic radiographers. 85% (n = 11) reported negative association between shift work and the three themes of sleep/fatigue, burnout and wellbeing: including after the introduction of shift pattern control or adjusted shift patterns. The remainder showed no change, or any improvement nullified by countermeasures to maintain service delivery. CONCLUSION: Current working practices and shift plans in the target population showed detrimental effects on the participants - this can be suggested that Diagnostic Radiographers may suffer fatigue, burnout and poor mental health from stretched shift working patterns. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Further study into the effects of shift work on Diagnostic Radiographers and other allied health professionals is indicated - relating to the above themes in the context of errors and patient safety. Additional research into Non Consultant Doctors, shift work effects and the context of wider service delivery required; with suitable interventions and education to maximise understanding of legal working practices, monitoring and self-management of symptoms.

Seasonality selects for more acutely virulent parasites when virulence is density dependent.

Host condition is often likely to influence parasite virulence. Furthermore, condition may often be correlated with host density, and therefore, it is important to understand the role of density-dependent virulence (DDV). We examine the consequences of DDV to the evolution of parasites in both seasonal and non-seasonal environments. In particular, we consider seasonality in host birth rate that results in a fluctuating host density and therefore a variable virulence. We show that parasites are selected for lower exploitation, and therefore lower transmission and virulence as the strength of DDV increases without seasonality. This is an important insight from our models; DDV has the opposite effect on the evolution of parasites to that of higher baseline mortality. Our key result is that although seasonality does not affect the evolution of virulence in classical models, with DDV parasites in seasonal environments are predicted to evolve to be more acute. This suggests that in more seasonal environments wildlife disease is likely to be more rather than less virulent if DDV is widespread.

Optimal immune defence in the light of variation in lifespan.

There is good evidence for costs to both the uses of immune defences and their development and maintenance. The optimal defence will be a balance of these costs with the risk of infection and the virulence of the disease. It is therefore clear that the life-history characteristics of both host and parasite will impact the optimal level of defence, and that this may in part explain the variation in immune defence against different pathogens and parasites. For instance, it has traditionally been suggested that long-lived hosts should invest in immune memory. Ecological evolutionary theory can be used to examine in detail how different host characteristics will affect the optimal immune response that evolves. Here, we review theoretical studies on the impact of host lifespan on various immune defence characteristics including acquired immunity and highlight the importance of population-level epidemiological feedbacks on the outcome. In particular, we discuss when longer-lived hosts may invest less in acquired immunity and develop new theory to highlight the importance of the mechanism of host population regulation to the outcome. We finish by discussing where more theory is needed and how comparative and experimental studies may test the theory.

Population structure of the mosquito Aedes aegypti (Stegomyia aegypti) in Pakistan.

Eleven microsatellite markers were used to determine the genetic population structure and spread of Aedes aegypti (Stegomyia aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) in Pakistan using mosquitoes collected from 13 different cities. There is a single genetic cluster of Ae. aegypti in Pakistan with a pattern of isolation by distance within the population. The low level of isolation by distance suggests the long-range passive dispersal of this mosquito, which may be facilitated by the tyre trade in Pakistan. A decrease in genetic diversity from south to north suggests a recent spread of this mosquito from Karachi. A strong negative correlation between genetic distance and the quality of road connections shows that populations in cities connected by better road networks are less differentiated, which suggests the human-aided passive dispersal of Ae. aegypti in Pakistan. Dispersal on a large spatial scale may facilitate the strategy of introducing transgenic Ae. aegypti or intracellular bacteria such as Wolbachia to control the spread of dengue disease in Pakistan, but it also emphasizes the need for simple measures to control container breeding sites.

A review of dengue as an emerging disease in Pakistan.

The presence of dengue virus has been detected using neutralization and haemagglutination inhibition antibodies in local populations in Pakistan since the 1960s. However, the first epidemic was not reported until 1994. This was followed by some cases in 1995, but the disease was confined to the port city of Karachi. Since 2006, dengue epidemics have occurred every year and the range has extended to most cities in Pakistan. Dengue now affects thousands of people and has caused hundreds of deaths. It has become a major health problem in Pakistan, and it is likely to become an even greater health problem in the coming years. This review gives an insight into the dengue situation from the early 1960s to the most recent epidemics in Pakistan, and also describes the primary vector of this disease (Aedes aegypti) in Pakistan. As such, it provides the first comprehensive review of the emergence of this important public health problem.

Maintenance of host variation in tolerance to pathogens and parasites.

Tolerance and resistance provide hosts with two distinct defense strategies against parasitism. In resistance the hosts "fight" the parasite directly, whereas in tolerance the hosts fight the disease by ameliorating the damage that infection causes. There is increasing recognition that the two mechanisms may exhibit very different evolutionary behaviors. Although empirical work has often noted considerable variance in tolerance within hosts, theory has predicted the fixation of tolerance due to positive frequency dependence through a feedback with disease prevalence. Here we reconcile these findings through a series of dynamic game theoretical models. We emphasize that there is a crucial distinction between tolerance to the effects of disease-induced mortality and tolerance to the effect of the disease-induced reductions in fecundity. Only mortality tolerance has a positive effect on parasite fitness, whereas sterility tolerance is neutral and may therefore result in polymorphisms. The nature of the costs to defense and their relationship to trade-offs between resistance and tolerance are crucial in determining the likelihood of variation, whereas the co-evolution of the parasite will not affect diversity. Our findings stress that it is important to measure the effects of different mechanisms on characteristics that affect the epidemiology of the parasite to completely understand the evolutionary dynamics of defense.

The evolution of host-parasite range.

Understanding the coevolution of hosts and parasites is one of the key challenges for evolutionary biology. In particular, it is important to understand the processes that generate and maintain variation. Here, we examine a coevolutionary model of hosts and parasites where infection does not depend on absolute rates of transmission and defense but is approximately all-or-nothing, depending on the relative levels of defense and infectivity of the host and the parasite. We show that considerable diversity can be generated and maintained because of epidemiological feedbacks, with strains differing in the range of host and parasite types they can respectively infect or resist. Parasites with broad and narrow ranges therefore coexist, as do broadly and narrowly resistant hosts, but this diversity occurs without the assumption of highly specific gene interactions. In contrast to gene-for-gene models, cycling in strain types is found only under a restrictive set of circumstances. The generation of diversity in both hosts and parasites is dependent on the shape of the trade-off relationships but is more likely in long-lived hosts and chronic disease with long infectious periods. Overall, our model shows that significant diversity in infectivity and resistance range can evolve and be maintained from initially monomorphic populations.

Spatiotemporal patterns of malaria incidence in northern Thailand.

We present a detailed analysis of long-term time series of malaria incidence in northern Thailand. Positive cases for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax have been recorded monthly from 1977-2002 at 13 provinces in the region. Time series statistical methods are used to examine the long-term trends and seasonal dynamics of malaria incidence at regional and provincial scales. Both malarial types are declining throughout the region, except in the two provinces that share a large border with Myanmar. The rate of decline in P. vivax has decreased across the region since the end of the 1980s, and this may be a signal of developing resistance or changing vector potential. Both species display a two-peak annual seasonality that may be attributed to patterns of vector occurrence, farming practice and migration of individuals across international borders. In a number of provinces, the importance of the first seasonal peak has grown in recent years, possibly owing to increases in vector densities. The medium-term fluctuations of both species exhibit a clear spatial organisation. There is some evidence of a subtle close to 4-year super annual cycle in P. falciparum, which we suggest is driven by extrinsic factors relating to the climate of the region.

Deformed wing virus is a recent global epidemic in honeybees driven by Varroa mites.

Deformed wing virus (DWV) and its vector, the mite Varroa destructor, are a major threat to the world's honeybees. Although the impact of Varroa on colony-level DWV epidemiology is evident, we have little understanding of wider DWV epidemiology and the role that Varroa has played in its global spread. A phylogeographic analysis shows that DWV is globally distributed in honeybees, having recently spread from a common source, the European honeybee Apis mellifera. DWV exhibits epidemic growth and transmission that is predominantly mediated by European and North American honeybee populations and driven by trade and movement of honeybee colonies. DWV is now an important reemerging pathogen of honeybees, which are undergoing a worldwide manmade epidemic fueled by the direct transmission route that the Varroa mite provides.

The evolution of oscillatory behavior in age-structured species.

A major challenge in ecology is to explain why so many species show oscillatory population dynamics and why the oscillations commonly occur with particular periods. The background environment, through noise or seasonality, is one possible driver of these oscillations, as are the components of the trophic web with which the species interacts. However, the oscillation may also be intrinsic, generated by density-dependent effects on the life history. Models of structured single-species systems indicate that a much broader range of oscillatory behavior than that seen in nature is theoretically possible. We test the hypothesis that it is selection that acts to constrain the range of periods. We analyze a nonlinear single-species matrix model with density dependence affecting reproduction and with trade-offs between reproduction and survival. We show that the evolutionarily stable state is oscillatory and has a period roughly twice the time to maturation, in line with observed patterns of periodicity. The robustness of this result to variations in trade-off function and density dependence is tested.

Synthesis and biological evaluation of sparsomycin analogues.

Three series of sparsomycin analogues were prepared and examined for their ability to inhibit DNA or protein synthesis in bone marrow, P388 lymphocytic leukemia, and P815 mastocytoma cells. The compounds of series I and II, distinguished by the inclusion or exclusion of a hydroxymethyl functional group, were designed to elucidate the effect on activity of replacing the oxodithioacetal side chain of sparsomycin with 4-substituted benzyl groups. The series III analogues, which excluded the hydroxymethyl group and replaced the oxodithioacetal moiety of sparsomycin with a benzyl amide group, were designed to investigate the potential interaction of an amide oxygen in contrast to the sulfoxide oxygen of sparsomycin. Overall, the bromobenzyl-substituted analogues imparted the greatest inhibitory activity in the protein synthesis assay, while the methoxybenzyl-substituted analogues displayed the least. The methylbenzyl and the unsubstituted benzyl compounds were intermediate in inhibitory potential. The activity in the protein synthesis assay may correspond to the lipophilic and electronic characteristics of the substituents on the benzyl moiety of the analogues. All of the compounds were inactive in the DNA synthesis assay.

1-(4-Aminobenzyl)-and 1-(4-aminophenyl)isoquinoline derivatives: synthesis and evaluation as potential irreversible cyclic nucleotide phosphodiesterase inhibitors.

In an effort to increase the specificity of the potent phosphodiesterase inhibitor papaverine, we synthesized two series of novel 1-(4-aminobenzyl)- and 1-(4-aminophenyl)isoquinoline derivatives, incorporating alkylating moieties on the amine substituents. These compounds were evaluated for their inhibitory action on phosphodiesterase preparations from bovine heart and rat cerebral cortex. Studies were also conducted to determine whether these compounds were reacting with the enzymes in an irreversible manner. The compounds were potent inhibitors of the phosphodiesterases; however, no evidence was found for an irreversible inhibition.

Mesoionic purinone analogues as inhibitors of cyclic-AMP phosphodiesterase: a comparison of several ring systems.

Several simple alkyl and aralkyl derivatives of mesoionic thiazolopyrimidines (1) and mesoionic 1,3,4-thiadiazolopyrimidines (2) were found to possess theophylline-like activity as inhibitors of cyclic-AMP phosphodiesterase (PDE). Reduction of the C2-C3 double bond of 1 or replacement of the sulfur atom of 1 or 2 with an N-methyl group nearly abolishes activity. Optimal activity appears to be associated with a hydrophobic substituent at the N8 position. The five-membered ring of 1 can be replaced by a pyridine or isoquinoline nucleus without untoward effects. Preliminary kinetic data suggest that the type of enzyme inhibition produced by the mesoionic derivatives is similar to that observed for theophylline. Thus, several novel mesoionic ring systems display activity as inhibitors of cyclic-AMP PDE and can serve as lead compounds for further investigation.

'Small worlds' and the evolution of virulence: infection occurs locally and at a distance.

Why are some discases more virulent than others? Vector-borne diseases such as malaria and water-borne diseases such as cholera are generally more virulent than diseases spread by direct contagion. One factor that characterizes both vector- and water-borne diseases is their ability to spread over long distances, thus causing infection of susceptible individuals distant from the infected individual. Here we show that this ability of the pathogen to infect distant individuals in a spatially structured host population leads to the evolution of a more virulent pathogen. We use a lattice model in which reproduction is local but infection can vary between completely local to completely global. With completely global infection the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is the same as in mean-field models while a lower virulence is predicted as infection becomes more local. There is characteristically a period of relatively moderate increase in virulence followed by a more rapid rise with increasing proportions of global infection as we move beyond a 'critical connectivity'. In the light of recent work emphasizing the existence of 'small world' networks in human populations, our results suggests that if the world is getting 'smaller'--as populations become more connected--diseases may evolve higher virulence.

Life-history trade-offs and the evolution of pathogen resistance: competition between host strains.

The dynamics of a 'resistant' and a 'susceptible' strain of a self-regulated host species, in the presence of a directly transmitted pathogen, is investigated. The two strains trade off differences in pathogen transmissibility (as an aspect of pathogen resistance) against differences in birth rate and/or resistance to crowding. Depending on parameter values, either strain may be eliminated, or the two may coexist (along with the pathogen). Coexistence (polymorphism), unsurprisingly, requires an appropriate balance between the different advantages possessed by the two strains. The probability of coexistence through such a balance, however, varies nonlinearly with the degree of difference between the strains: coexistence is least likely between two very similar strains. Resistance is most likely to evolve in hosts with the characteristics of many insect pests. Moreover, with highly pathogenic pathogens, a 'susceptible' strain may exclude a 'resistant' strain because its higher growth rate is more effective against the pathogen than reduced transmissibility. 'Resistance' can reside in parameters other than those directly associated with the pathogen. Although no cycles arise and no chaotic behaviour is found, an oscillatory approach to equilibrium is commonly observed, signalling the possibility of observable oscillations in strain frequency in the (more variable) real world.