Forecasting the number of future disabled elderly using Markovian and mathematical models.

The accuracy of forecasting the number of future disabled elderly people depends on the accuracy of projecting mortality rates and the rates of transition to and from functional disability. We describe a new two-step method for constructing mathematical models that project these future rates dynamically. (1) A Markovian model of elders' transitions between functional states is specified. (2) A mathematical model of the probability of each transition is created. We conducted pilot studies of the fundamental mathematical processes of this method using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging. First we constructed prototypic mathematical models of the probabilities of remaining functionally able and of making transitions to disability and to death within 2 years. Then we used these models to project hypothetical rates of transition for white women of selected ages, morbidity ratings and health statuses.

Managed primary care of nursing home residents.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the rates of hospital use and mortality of nursing homes residents who received their primary care from nurse practitioner-physician teams. DESIGN: A cohort study. SETTING: Thirty nursing homes in Southern California. PATIENTS: Older, long-term residents of nursing homes enrolled in a Medicare HMO (n = 307). INTERVENTION: Primary care by an accessible interdisciplinary team supported by clinical guidelines, continuous quality improvement techniques, and increased availability of clinical services at the nursing homes. RESULTS: The residents (mean age 83.5 years, 69.0% women) had a high prevalence of dementia (83.5%) and functional disability (87.2% were dependent in two or more activities of daily living). About half (50.8%) expressed a preference for "no hospitalization and no resuscitation." Compared with other nursing homes populations, this cohort experienced a lower annual rate of hospital use (518 days/1000 residents) and a similar rate of mortality (23.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Integration of the efforts of physicians, nurse practitioners, and nursing home staff can lead to low rates of hospital use by nursing home residents. The effects on residents' quality of life and mortality require further study.

Predictive validity of a questionnaire that identifies older persons at risk for hospital admission.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the predictive validity of a mailed questionnaire designed to measure older adults' risk of repeated hospitalization. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Ramsey County, Minnesota. PARTICIPANTS: Medicaid recipients aged 70 and older who completed the questionnaire. MEASUREMENTS: Responses were used to calculate the subjects' probability of repeated admission (Pra) to hospitals within 4 years. Subjects were classified as low-risk (Pra < 0.5) or high risk (Pra > or = 0.5). One year later, Medicaid claims data were analyzed to determine the subjects' actual use of hospitals. RESULTS: One-fifth of the respondents (20.6%) were classified as high-risk at baseline. During the following year, the high-risk subjects used hospitals at approximately twice the rate of the low-risk subjects (4.5 vs 2.4 days/person-year, P = .009). CONCLUSIONS: The instrument, which was previously found to be valid in a national sample of Medicare beneficiaries, appears to be valid also in a local sample of Medicaid beneficiaries. Older adults at risk of heavy hospital use can be identified prospectively through their responses to this brief, mailed, self-administered questionnaire. The instrument may be useful in targeting older persons for interventions designed to prevent the need for hospital care.

Factors affecting sample selection in a randomized trial of balance enhancement: the FICSIT Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine demographic, functional, and health-related factors that may have influenced the selection of older adults for a randomized trial of balance enhancement. DESIGN: Comparison of participants with nonparticipants at various stages of the recruiting process. SETTING: Northeastern suburban community. PARTICIPANTS: Registered voters aged 75 and older (n = 7191). MEASUREMENTS: Demographic, health-related, functional, balance, gait, and falling characteristics. RESULTS: The overall participation rate in the randomized trial was 1.5%. Compared with nonparticipants, participants were significantly more likely to be male, married, living with others, living in a house, highly educated, healthy, and physically active. CONCLUSION: Recruiting older subjects by mail to studies of rigorous interventions can produce significant selection biases that may limit the population to which results can be generalized.

Predictive validity of the Pra instrument among older recipients of managed care.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the validity of the Pra instrument in predicting the use of health-related services by older enrollees in a managed care plan. DESIGN: Cohort study. At baseline, a survey was administered by mail. Responses were entered into the Pra formula to estimate each person's probability of using health-related services heavily in the future. The subjects' use of services during the following year was monitored through claims submitted to their managed care organization. SETTING: Urban and suburban areas of Southern California. PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 65 years and older enrolled in a Medicare risk health plan (n = 6802). MEASUREMENTS: Baseline data included demographic, health-related, social, functional, and previous-use-of-service characteristics. Follow-up data included the use of and claims for payment for inpatient hospital care, emergency room services, nursing home services, home care, ambulance services, outpatient surgery, and durable medical equipment. RESULTS: High-risk subjects (highest quartile of Pra values) incurred hospital admissions and claims that were 2.5 and 2.7 times greater than those of low-risk subjects (lower three quartiles). CONCLUSIONS: The Pra formula is recommended for screening older adults enrolled in managed care organizations (as well as for screening those in the fee-for-service environment). It identifies older people who may benefit from interventions designed to avert health crises and the need for expensive care.

The relation of dizziness to functional decline.

OBJECTIVE: to assess the effect of dizziness on the probability that an older person will die or become functionally disabled within 2 years. Dizziness is a common symptom for which the prognosis is uncertain. This report compares the prognoses for dizzy and not-dizzy older people in order to assist clinicians who diagnose and treat these patients. DESIGN: a prospective study of a representative sample of elderly (70+) non-institutionalized Americans. Elderly subjects (n = 3,798) in the Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA) were asked questions about the presence of dizziness, medical conditions, and functional disability in 1984. The cohort was reinterviewed about functional disability in 1986. OUTCOME MEASURE: transition from functional ability to disability after 2 years. RESULTS: Bivariate analyses showed that dizziness predicts functional decline but not mortality. Multivariate models revealed that age, race, sensory impairment, vascular disease, and other morbidity are independent predictors of becoming disabled. Controlling for these potential confounders, dizziness does not predict an increased probability of becoming disabled. CONCLUSION: Elderly people who are dizzy should be evaluated for the presence of these related conditions.

Test-retest reliability of a questionnaire that identifies elders at risk for hospital admission.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the test-retest reliability of a questionnaire designed to measure elderly persons' probability of repeated admission (P(ra)) to a hospital within 4 years. DESIGN: Participants received the test questionnaire by mail; respondents to the test questionnaire received the retest questionnaire 3 weeks later. PARTICIPANTS: Elderly (65+) community-dwelling enrollees in the Medical Assistance (Medicaid) program of Ramsey County, MN (n = 192). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The correlation (r) between the P(ra) values computed from the test-retest correlations (k) of the questionnaire's individual items were also measured. RESULTS: The response rate was 63% (121/192) for the test questionnaire and 69% (84/121) for the retest questionnaire. The test and retest values of P(ra) computed from responses to the questionnaires were highly correlated (r = 0.78, P < 0.0001). For the individual questionnaire items, the range of k values was 0.50-1.00 (P < 0.0001 for all items). Slightly higher values of r and k were obtained when the respondents were women and when the same person (either proxy or self) completed both questionnaires. Age was not consistently related to reliability. CONCLUSION: the test-retest reliability of individual items and of the computed P(ra) was high, suggesting that responses by elderly persons to mailed questionnaires pertaining to health status are stable over brief periods of time. The resulting P(ra) values may be useful in identifying elders at high risk for hospital admission.

The validity of nutritional status as a marker for future disability and depressive symptoms among high-risk older adults.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the validity of the DETERMINE Checklist as a marker for future functional disability, depressive symptoms, and mortality among high-risk older adults. DESIGN: A Cohort study. SETTING: An Urban-suburban Midwestern community. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries at high risk for hospital admission who received geriatric evaluation and management (GEM) (n = 251). MEASUREMENTS: Demographic, health-related, functional, psychosocial, survival, and nutritional data were collected through telephone and in-home interviews. RESULTS: GEM recipients with baseline Checklist scores of four or higher were found to be significantly more likely than those with lower scores to have functional disability or high levels of depressive symptoms a year later. Checklist scores did not predict mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The 10-item Checklist could be used as a secondary screen to identify older persons who, without treatment, are at especially high-risk to have disability or depression a year later.

The effect of case management on the costs of health care for enrollees in Medicare Plus Choice plans: a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the effects of case management on an older population's costs of health care. DESIGN: A 1-year randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Multiple sites of care in San Francisco, California. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 65 or older of primary care physicians in a large provider organization bearing financial risk for their care (n = 6409). INTERVENTION: Screening for high risk and provision of social work-based case management. OUTCOME MEASURES: Volume and cost of hospital, physician, case management, and other health-related services. RESULTS: The experimental group used more case management services than the control group (0.09 vs. 0.02 months per person, P<.001). The experimental group's average total payments for health care were slightly lower ($3148 vs $3277, P = .40). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides no statistically significant evidence that social work-oriented case management reduces the use or the cost of health care for high-risk older people. Other potentially favorable effects of this type of case management need to be evaluated, as do the effects of other types of case management.

A controlled trial of outpatient geriatric evaluation and management.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of targeted outpatient geriatric evaluation and management (GEM). DESIGN: Controlled clinical trial. Elderly persons were identified as being at high risk for hospital admission on the basis of their responses to a short, mailed, self-administered questionnaire. The high-risk elders who chose to participate in the GEM program were compared to those who continued to receive usual care. SETTING: Outpatient GEM clinic at an urban university hospital. SUBJECTS: Elderly Medicaid recipients whose probability of repeated hospital admission (Pra) within 4 years was calculated as 40% or greater (Pra > or = 0.40). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality, use of institutional services, satisfaction. RESULTS: Of the 1210 persons who were sent questionnaires, 624 responded (response rate = 51.6%), of whom 154 (24.7%) were deemed to be a high risk for hospitalization. Of these, 43 received GEM (experimental subjects); 111 received usual care (controls). At baseline, the experimental and control groups' demographic and health-related characteristics did not differ significantly. The average experimental subject was 76.5 years old, had 9.6 significant medical problems, and took 6.7 significant long-term prescription medications. During the program's first 17 months of follow-up, the experimental subjects had lower annual rates of mortality (2.9% vs 19.2%, P = 0.03) and emergency room use (0.6 vs 1.0 visits, P = 0.01) than did the controls. The experimental subjects also tended to use nursing homes, but not hospitals, at a lower rate than the controls. All of the experimental subjects rated the program as either excellent (81.0%) or good (19.0%); 100% said they would recommend it to others. Their established primary physicians rated the GEM services as appropriate and helpful. CONCLUSION: Targeted outpatient GEM was associated with reduced mortality, reduced use of emergency rooms, and a trend toward reduced use of nursing homes.

A randomized clinical trial of outpatient geriatric evaluation and management.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the effects of outpatient geriatric evaluation and management (GEM) on high-risk older persons' functional ability and use of health services. DESIGN: Randomized clinical trial. SETTING: Ambulatory clinic in a community hospital. PARTICIPANTS: A population-based sample of community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries age 70 and older who were at high risk for hospital admission in the future (N = 568). INTERVENTION: Comprehensive assessment followed by interdisciplinary primary care. MEASUREMENTS: Functional ability, restricted activity days, bed disability days, depressive symptoms, mortality, Medicare payments, and use of health services. Interviewers were blinded to participants' group status. RESULTS: Intention-to-treat analysis showed that the experimental participants were significantly less likely than the controls to lose functional ability (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.47-0.99), to experience increased health-related restrictions in their daily activities (aOR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.37-0.96), to have possible depression (aOR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.20-0.94), or to use home healthcare services (aOR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.37-0.92) during the 12 to 18 months after randomization. Mortality, use of most health services, and total Medicare payments did not differ significantly between the two groups. The intervention cost $1,350 per person. CONCLUSION: Targeted outpatient GEM slows functional decline.

Screening elders for risk of hospital admission.

OBJECTIVE: To define a set of screening criteria that identifies elders who are at high risk for repeated hospital admission in the future. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. Logistic regression analysis of data from half of the subjects was used to identify risk factors for repeated hospital admission. The ability of these risk factors to identify elders who are at high risk for repeated hospitalization in the future was then tested using data from the other half of the subjects. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: A subsample (n = 5876) of a multistage probability sample of all non-institutionalized U.S. civilians who were 70 years or older in 1984. MEASUREMENTS: At baseline (1984), elderly subjects were asked about their demographic, socioeconomic, medical, and functional characteristics and about their recent use of health services. Their subsequent hospital admissions and mortality were then monitored through the records of the Medicare program and the National Death Index (1985-88). RESULTS: Among the subjects in the first half of the sample, eight factors emerged as risk factors for repeated admission: older age, male sex, poor self-rated general health, availability of an informal caregiver, having ever had coronary artery disease, and having had, during the previous year, a hospital admission, more than six doctor visits, or diabetes. Based on the presence or absence of these factors in 1984, 7.2% of the subjects in the second half of the sample were estimated to have a high probability of repeated admission (Pra > or = 0.5) during 1985-1988. In comparison with subjects estimated to have a low risk (Pra < 0.5), this high-risk group's actual experiences during 1985-1988 included a higher cumulative incidence of repeated admission (41.8% vs 26.2%, P < 0.0001), a higher cumulative rate of mortality (44.2% vs 19.0%, P < 0.0001), more hospital days per person-year survived (5.2 vs 2.6), and higher hospital charges per person-year survived ($3731 vs $1841). CONCLUSION: Eight easily ascertained risk factors affect elders' probability of being hospitalized repeatedly within four years. In the future, brief surveys about the presence of these factors could be used to estimate elders' risk of future hospitalization and, thereby, to identify some of those who may derive the greatest benefit from interventions designed to avert the need for hospitalization.

Outpatient geriatric evaluation and management.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the development and operation of a practical model of outpatient geriatric evaluation and management (GEM) for high-risk, community-dwelling older adults. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries age 70 years and older who were medically stable but had a high probability of repeated admission to hospitals (P(ra) > .40) in the future (n = 248). INTERVENTION: Outpatient GEM. MEASUREMENTS: Demographic, clinical, and use-of-hospital characteristics of patients; nature and quantity of GEM services; satisfaction of patients and their established primary physicians. RESULTS: At enrollment, the average patient was 78.7 years old, took 5.0 long-term prescription medications and was unable to perform 0.5 (of six) activities of daily living (ADL) and 1.4 (of seven) instrumental ADL. Many patients (71.3%) reported hospital days during the previous year. Each of three interdisciplinary teams (geriatrician, gerontological nurse practitioner, nurse and social worker) performed comprehensive assessments and then provided primary care and case management to a case load of 45 to 52 patients. On average, GEM required 6 months, during which patients visited the GEM clinic 7.4 times, had 10.4 active problems addressed, spoke to GEM staff members weekly by telephone, and were referred to two other providers. Most patients (94.4%) completed the GEM program; 66.7% completed advance directives. Satisfaction with GEM was high among the patients and their established primary physicians. The cost of the GEM personnel averaged about $1540 per patient treated. CONCLUSIONS: This model of outpatient GEM provided 6 months of targeted intensive care at a reasonable cost. The satisfaction ratings of patients and their primary physicians were high.

Soliciting defined populations to recruit samples of high-risk older adults.

BACKGROUND: Generalizable research on high-risk older persons requires samples that are both large enough for adequate statistical power and similar enough to community populations that its results can be generalized to them. We tested the effectiveness and efficiency of mixed-mode (mail-telephone) solicitation of a defined population as a method for recruiting a large, representative sample for a randomized trial of outpatient geriatric evaluation and management (GEM). METHODS: Fee-for-service, community-dwelling older Medicare beneficiaries were mailed a short self-administered screening questionnaire. Eligible respondents were called to assess eligibility and willingness to give consent; consenters were called again for baseline data. Information about nonrespondents, ineligibles, and refusers was obtained from the Health Care Financing Administration. RESULTS: The response rate to the screening questionnaire was 61.1%. Of the respondents, 13.2% were eligible for the study and, of those, 34.4% agreed to participate. Response rates appeared to be influenced by small financial incentives and by subjects' age, race, sex, location of residence, and use of hospitals in the previous year. Consent rates were influenced by age and sex. The final sample (N = 522) was representative of community high-risk respondents in racial composition, previous use of hospitals, and probability of repeated admission (Pre) in the future, but it was slightly younger and contained a higher percentage of men. Recruitment costs averaged $286.92 per consenting person. CONCLUSIONS: Mixed-mode solicitation of defined populations can produce, at reasonable cost, large samples whose representativeness of community high-risk populations can be determined. Procedures that may enhance the success of this approach include: advance communication with members of the target population and their families and physicians; provision of medical and small financial incentives; continuous monitoring of recruitment results; and attention to subjects' needs for convenience, time, transportation, and reassurance.

Integrating healthcare for older populations.

The complex array of needs posed by older adults has frequently produced fragmentation of care in traditional fee-for-service systems. Integration of care components in newer health systems will maximize patient benefits and organizational efficiency. This article outlines the major issues involved in integration of care for older populations. A health system must integrate its care of older adults in many ways: among providers, both in primary care and specialty services; with community-based sources of care; and across sites of care (clinic, hospital, emergency department, and nursing home). Integrating reimbursement structures for various services will serve to create a client-oriented system, as opposed to a finance-centered system, thereby enhancing coordination of care. The extent to which two experimental comprehensive systems, PACE (Program of All-inclusive Care of the Elderly) and SHMO II (Social Health Maintenance Organization), have achieved clinical and financial integration are discussed in detail. Healthcare organizations are encouraged to create integrated models of care and to study the effects of integration on patient outcomes.

Innovative healthcare for chronically ill older persons: results of a national survey.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the origin, scope, operations, funding, and outcomes of innovative healthcare programs for chronically ill older persons. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. METHODS: A national expert panel nominated chronic illness programs they believed to be innovative and field tested. The directors of the 31 eligible programs provided descriptive information in 60-minute semistructured telephone interviews. RESULTS: The innovative programs we surveyed tended to target their services to high-risk patients, use teams of providers to deliver care, designate providers to coordinate multiple components of complex care plans, and shift care from higher- to lower-cost environments and/or redesign the delivery of primary care. CONCLUSIONS: Recent innovations in healthcare programs hold considerable promise for improving the outcomes of chronic care, but most have yet to be rigorously evaluated.

Identification and assessment of high-risk seniors. HMO Workgroup on Care Management.

CONTEXT: Many older adults with chronic illnesses and multidimensional needs are at high risk of adverse health outcomes, poor quality of life, and heavy use of health-related services. Modern proactive care of older populations includes identification of such high-risk individuals, assessment of their health-related needs, and interventions designed both to meet those needs and to prevent undesirable outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This paper outlines an approach to the tasks of identifying and assessing high-risk seniors. Intervention identification of high-risk seniors (also called case finding) is accomplished through a combination of periodic screening, recognition of high-risk seniors by clinicians, and analysis of administrative databases. Once identified, potentially high-risk individuals undergo on initial assessment in eight domains: cognition, medical conditions, medications, access to care, functional status, social situation, nutrition, and emotional status. The initial assessment is accomplished in a 30- to 45-minute interview conducted by a skilled professional--usually one with a background in nursing. The data are used to link some high-risk persons with appropriate services and to identify others who require more detailed assessments. Detailed assessment is often performed by interdisciplinary teams of various compositions and methods of operation, depending on local circumstances. CONCLUSION: The rapid growth in Medicare managed care is presenting many opportunities for developing more effective strategies for the proactive care for older populations. Identification and assessment of high-risk individuals are important initial steps in this process, paving the way for testing of interventions designed to reduce adverse health consequences and to improve the quality of life.

A method for increasing elders' use of advance directives.

Most published studies report that few elderly people have recorded advance directives (AD). We studied the effectiveness of an interdisciplinary intervention designed to help ambulatory frail elders to record AD. In collaboration with physicians and a trained lay volunteer, a social worker provided information and counseling to the elderly subjects, to their families, and to their proxies in a series of visits to a geriatric evaluation and management (GEM) clinic. Seventy-one percent of the subjects recorded AD. Of these, 96% named a proxy, and 83% recorded specific treatment preferences.

The effects of outpatient geriatric evaluation and management on caregiver burden.

This study investigated the effects of outpatient geriatric evaluation and management (GEM) on informal caregivers' sense of burden. We randomized 568 high-risk, community-dwelling older adults to receive either GEM or usual care for 6 months. At baseline and one year later, we assessed the burden experienced by their informal caregivers (N = 88). Compared with caregivers of participants in the usual care group, caregivers of participants in the GEM group were less than half as likely to report increased burden during the one-year follow-up period (16.7% vs 38.5%, p = .034). The findings suggest that GEM helps protect the informal caregivers of high-risk older people from the increases in burden that often accompany advancing age.

Satisfaction with outpatient geriatric evaluation and management (GEM).

The purpose of this study was to evaluate high-risk older adults' satisfaction with outpatient geriatric evaluation and management (GEM). Community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries (n = 522) age 70 years and older who had a high probability of repeated admission to hospitals (Pra > .40) were randomly assigned to receive either usual care or GEM for six months. Despite the stresses imposed by outpatient GEM (e.g., new relationships with providers, frequent office visits and changes in treatments), the mean satisfaction scores of the recipients of GEM were 9% higher than those of the recipients of usual care (4.31 vs 3.96, p < .001). The primary physicians of GEM recipients were also highly satisfied with GEM care.