Large-sample-size assessment of socioeconomic predictors of community-level resource management occurrence.

Community-level resource management efforts are cornerstones in ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. Yet, understanding how community characteristics influence management practices remains contested. With a sample size of ≥725 communities, we assessed the effects of key community (i.e., socioeconomic) characteristics (human population size and density, market integration, and modernization) on the probability of occurrence of fisheries management practices, including gear, species, and spatial restrictions. The study was based in Solomon Islands, a Pacific Island country with a population that is highly dependent on coastal fisheries. People primarily dwell in small communities adjacent to the coastline dispersed across 6 island provinces and numerous smaller islands. We used nationally collected data in binomial logistic regression models to examine the likelihood of management occurrence, given socioeconomic context of communities. In contrast to prevailing views, we identified a positive and statistically significant association between both human population size and market integration and all 3 management practices. Human population density, however, had a statistically significant negative association and modernization a varied and limited association with occurrence of all management practices. Our method offers a way to remotely predict the occurrence of resource management practices based on key socioeconomic characteristics. It could be used to improve understanding of why some communities conduct natural resource management activities when statistical patterns suggest they are not likely to and thus improve understanding of how some communities of people beat the odds despite limited market access and high population density.

Los esfuerzos por manejar los recursos a nivel comunitario son pilares para garantizar el uso sustentable de los recursos naturales. Aun así, el conocimiento sobre cómo las características comunitarias influyen sobre las prácticas de manejo todavía está en discusión. Con un tamaño de muestra de ≥725 comunidades, evaluamos los efectos de las características (tamaño y densidad poblacional humana, integración del mercado y modernización) comunitarias (es decir, socioeconómicas) clave sobre la probabilidad de incidencia de las prácticas de manejo de las pesquerías, incluyendo el equipamiento, las especies y las restricciones espaciales. El estudio se ubicó en las Islas Salomón, un país isleño del Pacífico con una población altamente dependiente de las pesquerías costeras. En este país, las personas habitan principalmente en comunidades pequeñas adyacentes a la costa y dispersas en las seis provincias isleñas y en numerosas islas más pequeñas. Usamos datos recolectados en todo el país en unos modelos de regresión logística binomial para examinar la probabilidad de incidencia del manejo, dado el contexto socioeconómico de las comunidades. Contrario a las opiniones predominantes, identificamos una asociación positiva y estadísticamente significativa entre el tamaño poblacional humano y la integración del mercado y entre las tres prácticas de manejo. La densidad poblacional humana, sin embargo, tuvo una asociación negativa estadísticamente significativa y la modernización una asociación variada y limitada con la incidencia de las prácticas de manejo. Nuestro método ofrece una manera para predecir remotamente la incidencia de las prácticas de manejo de recursos con base en características socioeconómicas importantes. El método podría utilizarse para incrementar el conocimiento sobre cómo algunas comunidades llevan a cabo actividades de manejo de recursos naturales cuando los patrones estadísticos sugieren lo contrario y así mejorar el entendimiento de cómo algunas comunidades humanas superan todos los pronósticos a pesar del acceso limitado al mercado y la alta densidad poblacional. Evaluación de Muestras de Gran Tamaño de Pronosticadores Socioeconómicos de la Incidencia del Manejo de Recursos a Nivel Comunitario.

Food trade among Pacific Island countries and territories: implications for food security and nutrition.

BACKGROUND: There is growing attention to intra-regional trade in food. However, the relationship between such trade and food and nutrition is understudied. In this paper, we present an analysis of intra-regional food trade in the Pacific region, where there are major concerns regarding the nutritional implications of international food trade. Using a new regional database, we examine trends in food trade among Pacific Island Counties and Territories (PICTs) relative to extra-regional trade. RESULTS: Intra-regional trade represents a small, but increasing proportion of total imports. The major food group traded within the Pacific is cereal grains and flour, which represented 51% of total intra-regional food trade in 2018. Processed and prepared foods, sweetened or flavoured beverages, processed fish, and sugar and confectionary are also traded in large quantities among PICTs. Trade in root crops is negligible, and overall intra-regional trade of healthy foods is limited, both in terms of tonnage and relative to imports from outside the region. Fiji remains the main source of intra-regional imports into PICTs, particularly for non-traditional staple foods. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the growth in trade of staple foods intra-regionally, indicating a role for Fiji (in particular) in regional food security. Within this overall pattern, there is considerable opportunity to enhance intra-regional trade in traditional staple foods, namely root crops. Looking forward, the current food system disruption arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy measures has highlighted the long-term lack of investment in agriculture, and suggests an increased role for regional approaches in fostering trade in healthy foods.

Combining refuges with transgenic insect releases for the management of an insect pest with non-recessive resistance to Bt crops in agricultural landscapes.

Reinforcing the high-dose/refuge strategy with releases of transgenic insects has been suggested as a method for simultaneously managing agricultural pest populations and resistance to transgenic crops. Theoretical and empirical studies have shown that these approaches can work when deployed against closed populations and the assumptions of the HDR strategy are met. However, field-evolved resistance is often linked to non-recessive resistance or refuge non-compliance, and pest management regimes are likely to take place at the landscape-level. It is therefore important to understand how effective such strategies are when resistance is non-recessive, and how they could be employed in agricultural landscapes. We developed a spatially-explicit model to investigate the efficacy of strategies combining refuges with transgenic insect releases to manage a pest with non-recessive resistance in agricultural landscapes. We compared two release strategies, area-wide releases and localised releases targeted at population hotspots, and analysed the effects of refuge and release parameters on population and resistance dynamics. Area-wide releases reliably achieved landscape-level pest eradication. Localised releases also eradicated the pest when low release thresholds were combined with high release ratios, and maintained the pest at low densities when insufficient to achieve extinction. Reinforcing refuges with localised releases also greatly enhanced the probability of resistance extinction. However, when resistance remained in the population, localised releases prevented resistance from reaching fixation rather than greatly delaying or reversing resistance evolution. Our work indicates that combining refuges with simple release policies is effective for landscape-level pest suppression when the HDR assumptions are violated, but more nuanced release strategies may be required to enhance the benefits to resistance management.

Malnutrition in rural Solomon Islands: An analysis of the problem and its drivers.

Solomon Islands, like many Pacific Island nations, suffer from the burden of malnutrition. External drivers including population growth, declining agriculture and fisheries productivity and global food trade have contributed to the transition to greater reliance on imported foods. Globally, diets are recognized as both a cause of and solution to the burden of malnutrition. Using a mixed-method approach this study assessed nutritional status and key determinants of malnutrition among women and young children in rural Solomon Island communities. Quantitative 24-hour recall surveys identified diets of women and young children in these communities to be very limited in diversity. Typical daily diets comprised of fish, sweet potato (and/or rice) and slippery cabbage (a leafy green) usually boiled in coconut milk or baked. Participatory research using problem tree and biocultural approaches identified basic determinants of poor diets and opportunities to address these challenges. We highlight three domains of opportunity to improve diets across multiple scales; 1) improve nutrition-sensitive agriculture and fisheries to produce and distribute diverse, productive and nutrient rich foods; 2) nutrition education and empowerment, focusing on the first 1000 days of life, to influence and inform choices regarding food consumption; and 3) reducing the consumption of imported, energy-rich nutrient poor foods through national and regional policies. These multi-scale domains highlight that food system approaches that strengthen integrated policy and empower people are essential for healthy and sustainable diets in Solomon Islands and more broadly in the Pacific region.

An Updated Review of Ciguatera Fish Poisoning: Clinical, Epidemiological, Environmental, and Public Health Management.

Ciguatera Fish Poisoning (CFP) is the most frequently reported seafood-toxin illness in the world. It causes substantial human health, social, and economic impacts. The illness produces a complex array of gastrointestinal, neurological and neuropsychological, and cardiovascular symptoms, which may last days, weeks, or months. This paper is a general review of CFP including the human health effects of exposure to ciguatoxins (CTXs), diagnosis, human pathophysiology of CFP, treatment, detection of CTXs in fish, epidemiology of the illness, global dimensions, prevention, future directions, and recommendations for clinicians and patients. It updates and expands upon the previous review of CFP published by Friedman et al. (2008) and addresses new insights and relevant emerging global themes such as climate and environmental change, international market issues, and socioeconomic impacts of CFP. It also provides a proposed universal case definition for CFP designed to account for the variability in symptom presentation across different geographic regions. Information that is important but unchanged since the previous review has been reiterated. This article is intended for a broad audience, including resource and fishery managers, commercial and recreational fishers, public health officials, medical professionals, and other interested parties.

Scaling up food pricing policies in the Pacific: a guide to action.

There are calls for governments around the world to adopt pricing policies, including taxes, subsidies and price controls that ensure all people have access to, and can afford, healthy diets. Despite the strong potential of pricing policies to promote healthy diets and to support a post-COVID-19 recovery, there are gaps in evidence with regard to 'how' to design and apply effective food taxes in practice, and countries report challenges in navigating the different policy options.In this practice piece, we examine the global evidence for food taxes with a view to identifying practical lessons for policy design, adoption and implementation, using the Pacific Islands Region as a case study. We present a systematic resource that draws on locally generated evidence, and a Pacific conceptualisation of healthy diets, to address considerations in setting the tax base, rate and mechanisms, and to ensure tax targets are clearly identifiable within national tax and administrative systems. Health and Finance collaboration at the country level could ensure tax design addresses concerns for the impacts of food taxes on employment, economics and equity, as well as position food taxes as an opportunity to fund revenue shortfalls faced by governments following the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrate a need to review other policies for consistency with national health objectives to ensure that countries avoid inadvertently undermining health taxes, for example, by ensuring that foods with known non-communicable disease risk are not being price protected or promoted.

Sympatric speciation in mountain roses (Metrosideros) on an oceanic island.

Shifts in flowering time have the potential to act as strong prezygotic reproductive barriers in plants. We investigate the role of flowering time divergence in two species of mountain rose (Metrosideros) endemic to Lord Howe Island, Australia, a minute and isolated island in the Tasman Sea. Metrosideros nervulosa and M. sclerocarpa are sister species and have divergent ecological niches on the island but grow sympatrically for much of their range, and likely speciated in situ on the island. We used flowering time and population genomic analyses of population structure and selection, to investigate their evolution, with a particular focus on the role of flowering time in their speciation. Population structure analyses showed the species are highly differentiated and appear to be in the very late stages of speciation. We found flowering times of the species to be significantly displaced, with M. sclerocarpa flowering 53 days later than M. nervulosa. Furthermore, the analyses of selection showed that flowering time genes are under selection between the species. Thus, prezygotic reproductive isolation is mediated by flowering time shifts in the species, and likely evolved under selection, to drive the completion of speciation within a small geographical area. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards the completion of speciation: the evolution of reproductive isolation beyond the first barriers'.

How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach.

Countries around the world are in a state of lockdown to help limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, as the number of new daily confirmed cases begins to decrease, governments must decide how to release their populations from quarantine as efficiently as possible without overwhelming their health services. We applied an optimal control framework to an adapted Susceptible-Exposure-Infection-Recovery (SEIR) model framework to investigate the efficacy of two potential lockdown release strategies, focusing on the UK population as a test case. To limit recurrent spread, we find that ending quarantine for the entire population simultaneously is a high-risk strategy, and that a gradual re-integration approach would be more reliable. Furthermore, to increase the number of people that can be first released, lockdown should not be ended until the number of new daily confirmed cases reaches a sufficiently low threshold. We model a gradual release strategy by allowing different fractions of those in lockdown to re-enter the working non-quarantined population. Mathematical optimization methods, combined with our adapted SEIR model, determine how to maximize those working while preventing the health service from being overwhelmed. The optimal strategy is broadly found to be to release approximately half the population 2-4 weeks from the end of an initial infection peak, then wait another 3-4 months to allow for a second peak before releasing everyone else. We also modeled an "on-off" strategy, of releasing everyone, but re-establishing lockdown if infections become too high. We conclude that the worst-case scenario of a gradual release is more manageable than the worst-case scenario of an on-off strategy, and caution against lockdown-release strategies based on a threshold-dependent on-off mechanism. The two quantities most critical in determining the optimal solution are transmission rate and the recovery rate, where the latter is defined as the fraction of infected people in any given day that then become classed as recovered. We suggest that the accurate identification of these values is of particular importance to the ongoing monitoring of the pandemic.

Aquatic Foods and Nutrition in the Pacific.

National rates of aquatic food consumption in Pacific Island Countries and Territories are among the highest in the world, yet the region is suffering from extensive levels of diet-related ill health. The aim of this paper is to examine the variation in consumption patterns and in nutrient composition of aquatic foods in the Pacific, to help improve understanding of their contribution to food and nutrition security. For this examination we analysed nutrient composition data and trade data from two novel region-specific databases, as well as consumption data from national and village level surveys for two Melanesian case studies, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands. Results demonstrated that consumption depends on availability and the amount and type of aquatic food consumed, and its contribution to nutrition security varies within different geographic and socio-demographic contexts. More data is needed on locally relevant species and consumption patterns, to better inform dietary guidelines and improve public health both now and into the future. Advice on aquatic food consumption must consider the nutrient composition and quantity of products consumed, as well as accessibility through local food systems, to ensure they contribute to diverse and healthy diets.

COVID-19 and Pacific food system resilience: opportunities to build a robust response.

The unfolding COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of the Pacific food system to externalities and has had far-reaching impacts, despite the small number of COVID-19 cases recorded thus far. Measures adopted to mitigate risk from the pandemic have had severe impacts on tourism, remittances, and international trade, among other aspects of the political economy of the region, and are thus impacting on food systems, food security and livelihoods. Of particular concern will be the interplay between loss of incomes and the availability and affordability of local and imported foods. In this paper, we examine some of the key pathways of impact on food systems, and identify opportunities to strengthen Pacific food systems during these challenging times. The great diversity among Pacific Island Countries and Territories in their economies, societies, and agricultural potential will be an important guide to planning interventions and developing scenarios of alternative futures. Bolstering regional production and intraregional trade in a currently import-dependent region could strengthen the regional economy, and provide the health benefits of consuming locally produced and harvested fresh foods - as well as decreasing reliance on global supply chains. However, significant production, processing, and storage challenges remain and would need to be consistently overcome to influence a move away from shelf-stable foods, particularly during periods when human movement is restricted and during post-disaster recovery.

Ciguatera fish poisoning in the Pacific Islands (1998 to 2008).

BACKGROUND: Ciguatera is a type of fish poisoning that occurs throughout the tropics, particularly in vulnerable island communities such as the developing Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs). After consuming ciguatoxin-contaminated fish, people report a range of acute neurologic, gastrointestinal, and cardiac symptoms, with some experiencing chronic neurologic symptoms lasting weeks to months. Unfortunately, the true extent of illness and its impact on human communities and ecosystem health are still poorly understood. METHODS: A questionnaire was emailed to the Health and Fisheries Authorities of the PICTs to quantify the extent of ciguatera. The data were analyzed using t-test, incidence rate ratios, ranked correlation, and regression analysis. RESULTS: There were 39,677 reported cases from 17 PICTs, with a mean annual incidence of 194 cases per 100,000 people across the region from 1998-2008 compared to the reported annual incidence of 104/100,000 from 1973-1983. There has been a 60% increase in the annual incidence of ciguatera between the two time periods based on PICTs that reported for both time periods. Taking into account under-reporting, in the last 35 years an estimated 500,000 Pacific islanders might have suffered from ciguatera. CONCLUSIONS: This level of incidence exceeds prior ciguatera estimates locally and globally, and raises the status of ciguatera to an acute and chronic illness with major public health significance. To address this significant public health problem, which is expected to increase in parallel with environmental change, well-funded multidisciplinary research teams are needed to translate research advances into practical management solutions.