Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 1. The Burdens of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To provide contemporary estimates of the burdens (costs and mortality) associated with acute inpatient Medicare beneficiary admissions for sepsis. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excluding federally operated hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Total inpatient hospital and skilled nursing facility admission counts, costs, and mortality over time. From calendar year (CY)2012-CY2018, the total number of Medicare Part A/B (fee-for-service) beneficiaries with an inpatient hospital admission associated with an explicit sepsis code rose from 811,644 to 1,136,889. The total cost of inpatient hospital admission including an explicit sepsis code for those beneficiaries in those calendar years rose from $17,792,657,303 to $22,439,794,212. The total cost of skilled nursing facility care in the 90 days subsequent to an inpatient hospital discharge that included an explicit sepsis code for Medicare Part A/B rose from $3,931,616,160 to $5,623,862,486 over that same interval. Precise costs are not available for Medicare Part C (Medicare Advantage) patients. Using available federal data sources, we estimated the aggregate cost of inpatient admissions and skilled nursing facility admissions for Medicare Advantage patients to have risen from $6.0 to $13.4 billion over the CY2012-CY2018 interval. Combining data for fee-for-service beneficiaries and estimates for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, we estimate the total inpatient admission sepsis cost and any subsequent skilled nursing facility admission for all (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage) Medicare patients to have risen from $27.7 to $41.5 billion. Contemporary 6-month mortality rates for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with a sepsis inpatient admission remain high: for septic shock, approximately 60%; for severe sepsis, approximately 36%; for sepsis attributed to a specific organism, approximately 31%; and for unspecified sepsis, approximately 27%. CONCLUSION: Sepsis remains common, costly to treat, and presages significant mortality for Medicare beneficiaries.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 2. The Trajectories of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To distinguish characteristics of Medicare beneficiaries who will have an acute inpatient admission for sepsis from those who have an inpatient admission without sepsis, and to describe their further trajectories during and subsequent to those inpatient admissions. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient hospital admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Prevalent diagnoses in the year prior to the inpatient admission; healthcare contacts in the week prior to the inpatient admission; discharges, transfers, readmissions, and deaths (trajectories) for 6 months following discharge from the inpatient admission. Beneficiaries with no sepsis inpatient hospital admission for a year prior to an index hospital admission for sepsis were nearly indistinguishable by accumulated diagnostic codes from beneficiaries who had an index hospital admission without sepsis. Although the timing of healthcare services in the week prior to inpatient hospital admission was similar among beneficiaries who would be admitted for sepsis versus those whose inpatient admission did not include a sepsis code, the setting differed: beneficiaries destined for a sepsis admission were more likely to have received skilled nursing or unskilled nursing (e.g., nursing aide for activities of daily living) care. In contrast, comparing beneficiaries who had been free of any inpatient admission for an entire year and then required an inpatient admission, acute inpatient stays that included a sepsis code led to more than three times as many deaths within 1 week of discharge, with more admissions to skilled nursing facilities and fewer discharges to home. Comparing all beneficiaries who were admitted to a skilled nursing facility after an inpatient hospital admission, those who had sepsis coded during the index admission were more likely to die in the skilled nursing facility; more likely to be readmitted to an acute inpatient hospital and subsequently die in that setting; or if they survive to discharge from the skilled nursing facility, they are more likely to go next to a custodial nursing home. CONCLUSIONS: Although Medicare beneficiaries destined for an inpatient hospital admission with a sepsis code are nearly indistinguishable by other diagnostic codes from those whose admissions will not have a sepsis code, their healthcare trajectories following the admission are worse. This suggests that an inpatient stay that included a sepsis code not only identifies beneficiaries who were less resilient to infection but also signals increased risk for worsening health, for mortality, and for increased use of advanced healthcare services during and postdischarge along with an increased likelihood of an inpatient hospital readmission.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 3. The Methods, Models, and Forecasts of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of sepsis, age, and comorbidities on death following an acute inpatient admission and to model and forecast inpatient and skilled nursing facility costs for Medicare beneficiaries during and subsequent to an acute inpatient sepsis admission. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project (CMS) and leveraging the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Part A/B (fee-for-service) Medicare beneficiaries with an acute inpatient admission in 2017 and who had no inpatient sepsis admission in the prior year. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Logistic regression models to determine covariate risk contribution to death following an acute inpatient admission; conventional regression to predict Medicare beneficiary sepsis costs. Using the Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model to illuminate influence of illness on outcome of inpatient admissions, representative odds ratios (with 95% CIs) for death within 6 months of an admission (referenced to beneficiaries admitted but without the characteristic) are as follows: septic shock, 7.27 (7.19-7.35); metastatic cancer and acute leukemia (Hierarchical Condition Category 8), 6.76 (6.71-6.82); all sepsis, 2.63 (2.62-2.65); respiratory arrest (Hierarchical Condition Category 83), 2.55 (2.35-2.77); end-stage liver disease (Hierarchical Condition Category 27), 2.53 (2.49-2.56); and severe sepsis without shock, 2.48 (2.45-2.51). Models of the cost of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries forecast arise approximately 13% over 2 years owing the rising enrollments in Medicare offset by the cost of care per admission. CONCLUSIONS: A sepsis inpatient admission is associated with marked increase in risk of death that is comparable to the risks associated with inpatient admissions for other common and serious chronic illnesses. The aggregate costs of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries will continue to increase.

Meeting the Challenges of Sepsis in Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Call to Arms.

Sepsis is a life-threatening organ dysfunction that is caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. Sepsis may be caused by bacterial, fungal, or viral pathogens. The clinical manifestations exhibited by patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related sepsis overlap with those exhibited by patients with sepsis from secondary bacterial or fungal infections and can include an altered mental status, dyspnea, reduced urine output, tachycardia, and hypotension. Critically ill patients hospitalized with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections have increased risk for secondary bacterial and fungal infections. The same risk factors that may predispose to sepsis and poor outcome from bloodstream infections (BSIs) converge in patients with severe COVID-19. Current diagnostic standards for distinguishing between (1) patients who are critically ill, septic, and have COVID-19 and (2) patients with sepsis from other causes leave healthcare providers with 2 suboptimal choices. The first choice is to empirically administer broad-spectrum, antimicrobial therapy for what may or may not be sepsis. Such treatment may not only be ineffective and inappropriate, but it also has the potential to cause harm. The development of better methods to identify and characterize antimicrobial susceptibility will guide more accurate therapeutic interventions and reduce the evolution of new antibiotic-resistant strains. The ideal diagnostic test should (1) be rapid and reliable, (2) have a lower limit of detection than blood culture, and (3) be able to detect a specific organism and drug sensitivity directly from a clinical specimen. Rapid direct detection of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens would allow targeted therapy and result in improved outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 and sepsis.

Pathogenesis of emerging avian influenza viruses in mammals and the host innate immune response.

SUMMARY: Influenza A viruses of avian origin represent an emerging threat to human health as the progenitors of the next influenza pandemic. In recent years, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses have caused unprecedented epizootics on three continents and rare but highly fatal disease among humans exposed to diseased birds. Avian viruses of the H7 and H9 subtypes have also infected humans but generally resulted in far milder disease, yet they too should be considered as possible pandemic threats. Influenza virus infection elicits a complex network of host immune responses that, in uncomplicated influenza, results in effective control of the virus and the development of long-term memory responses. However, fatal avian H5N1 virus infection in both humans and experimental mammalian models is characterized by a high viral load in the respiratory tract, peripheral leukopenia and lymphopenia, a massive infiltration of macrophages into the lung, and dysregulation of cytokine and chemokine responses. This review focuses on avian influenza viruses as a pandemic threat, their induction of host innate immune responses in mammalian species, and the contribution of these responses to the disease process.

Adjuvanted recombinant hemagglutinin H7 vaccine to highly pathogenic influenza A(H7N9) elicits high and sustained antibody responses in healthy adults.

An unprecedented number of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) in the fifth epidemic wave during the winter of 2016-2017 in China and their antigenic divergence from the viruses that emerged in 2013 prompted development of updated vaccines for pandemic preparedness. We report on the findings of a clinical study in healthy adults designed to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of three dose levels of recombinant influenza vaccine derived from highly pathogenic A/Guangdong/17SF003/2016 (H7N9) virus adjuvanted with AS03 or MF59 oil-in water emulsions. Most of the six study groups meet the FDA CBER-specified vaccine licensure criterion of 70% seroprotection rate (SPR) for hemagglutination inhibition antibodies to the homologous virus. A substantial proportion of subjects show high cross-reactivity to antigenically distinct heterologous A(H7N9) viruses from the first epidemic wave of 2013. These results provide critical information to develop a pandemic response strategy and support regulatory requirements for vaccination under Emergency Use Authorization.

Seasonal influenza vaccination is associated with reduced risk of death among Medicare beneficiaries☆.

BACKGROUND: Influenza causes substantial mortality, especially among older persons. Influenza vaccines are rarely more than 50% effective and rarely reach more than half of the US Medicare population, which is primarily an aged population. We wished to estimate the association between vaccination and mortality reduction. METHOD: We used the US Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) DataLink Project to determine vaccination status and timing during the 2017-2018 influenza season for more than 26 million Medicare enrollees. Patient-level demographic, health, co-morbidity, hospitalization, vaccination, and healthcare utilization claims data were supplied as covariates to general linear models in order to isolate and estimate the association between participation in the vaccination program and relative risk of death. FINDINGS: The 2017-2018 seasonal influenza vaccine reduced (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] 0.936 [95% CI = 0.918-0.954]) the risk of all-cause death among beneficiaries following a hospitalization for sepsis and moreover the risk of death without a prior hospitalization during the 2.5-month outcome window (RRR 0.870 [95% CI = 0.853-0.887]). We estimate the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent a death in the ten-week outcome window is between 1,515 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,351-1,754; derived from the average treatment effect of augmented inverse probability weighting) and 1,960 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,695-2,381; derived from the average marginal effect of logistic regression). Among beneficiaries requiring hospitalization, the greatest death risk reduction accrued to those 85 + years of age who were hospitalized with sepsis, RRR 0.92 [95% CI = 0.89-0.95]. No apparent benefit was realized by beneficiaries who required custodial (nursing home) care. INTERPRETATION: Seasonal influenza immunization is associated with relative reduction of death risk among non-institutionalized Medicare beneficiaries. FUNDING: All authors are full-time or contractual employees of the United States Federal Government, Department of Health and Human Services, the funding agency.

Detection of molecular markers of antiviral resistance in influenza A (H5N1) viruses using a pyrosequencing method.

Resistance of influenza viruses to antiviral drugs can emerge following medication or may result from natural variation. Two classes of anti-influenza virus drugs targeting either the M2 protein (amantadine and rimantadine) or neuraminidase (NA; oseltamivir and zanamivir) are currently licensed. These drugs are expected to be important in controlling the early stages of a potential pandemic. In the present study, we describe how a pyrosequencing method can be used to rapidly detect established molecular markers of resistance to M2 blockers and NA inhibitors in influenza A (H5N1) viruses. The residues L26, V27, A30, S31, and G34 in the M2 protein were targeted for pyrosequencing. The NA residues for pyrosequencing analysis included the established markers of drug resistance (H274 and N294), as well as residues of less certain relevance (V116, I117, Q136, K150, and I222). A single pair of pyro-reverse transcription (RT)-PCR primers was designed to allow amplification of an approximately 600-nucleotide-long amplicon of the NA genes of H5N1 viruses from various clades/subclades associated with infections in humans. The sensitivity of the assay was demonstrated by the successful pyrosequencing of RNA extracted from samples of serially diluted (10(-5) to 10(-7)) virus stocks with initial concentrations ranging from 10(5) to 10(8) PFU/ml. The markers of resistance were detected in samples with threshold cycle values ranging from 32 to 37, as determined by real-time RT-PCR. The pyrosequencing approach may provide a valuable tool for rapid detection of markers of drug resistance in H5N1 viruses and facilitate the elucidation of the role of such changes in natural and acquired drug resistance.

Safety and immunogenicity of influenza A(H5N1) vaccine stored up to twelve years in the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile (NPIVS).

BACKGROUND: As part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Pandemic Influenza Plan preparedness and response strategy, the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile (NPIVS) program was established by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) in 2005 with the goal of building and maintaining a stockpile of vaccines for influenza viruses with pandemic potential to vaccinate 20 million people in the critical workforce in the event of a pandemic. The NPIVS program continuously monitors the integrity of influenza vaccine antigens and adjuvants stored within the stockpile. In addition to monitoring physical and chemical properties in stability studies, it is important to regularly assess the safety and immunogenicity of stockpiled vaccines and adjuvants to maintain preparedness for use in the event of an influenza pandemic. METHODS: BARDA conducted a randomized, double-blinded Phase 2 clinical study with the oldest stockpiled influenza A(H5N1) antigen, stored over the previous 10-12 years administered with or without MF59® adjuvant, stored over the previous 2-7 years at the time of vaccination. RESULTS: Stockpiled vaccines were well-tolerated, adverse events were generally mild, and there was no drop in immunogenicity to the oldest stockpiled A(H5N1) vaccine. Compared to unadjuvanted vaccine, greater peak antibody responses were observed in subjects who were vaccinated with MF59-adjuvanted vaccines, regardless of antigen dose. Vaccination with the A(H5N1) vaccine antigen also results in cross-reactive antibody responses to contemporary circulating strains of A(H5) influenza viruses. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency, type, and severity of AEs observed during this study are similar to historical clinical study data with A(H5N1) vaccines and MF59 adjuvant indicating that a stockpiled A(H5N1) vaccine appears to remain safe and tolerable. The vaccines were immunogenic when administered as a two-dose vaccine regimen in healthy adults, despite extended storage of HA antigen or MF59 adjuvant within the NPIVS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02680002.

Clinical Development of Therapeutic Agents for Hospitalized Patients With Influenza: Challenges and Innovations.

BACKGROUND: Since 1999, the US Food and Drug Administration approved neuraminidase and endonuclease inhibitors to treat uncomplicated outpatient influenza but not severe hospitalized influenza. After the 2009 pandemic, several influenza hospital-based clinical therapeutic trials were unsuccessful, possibly due to certain study factors. Therefore, in 2014, the US Health and Human Services agencies formed a Working Group (WG) to address related clinical challenges. METHODS: Starting in 2014, the WG obtained retrospective data from failed hospital-based influenza therapeutic trials and nontherapeutic hospital-based influenza studies. These data allowed the WG to identify factors that might improve hospital-based therapeutic trials. These included primary clinical endpoints, increased clinical site enrollment, and appropriate baseline enrollment criteria. RESULTS: During 2018, the WG received retrospective data from a National Institutes of Health hospital-based influenza therapeutic trial that demonstrated time to resolution of respiratory status, which was not a satisfactory primary endpoint. The WG statisticians examined these data and believed that ordinal outcomes might be a more powerful primary endpoint. Johns Hopkins' researchers provided WG data from an emergency-department (ED) triage study to identify patients with confirmed influenza using molecular testing. During the 2013-2014 influenza season, 4 EDs identified 1074 influenza-patients, which suggested that triage testing should increase enrollment by hospital-based clinical trial sites. In 2017, the WG received data from Northwestern Memorial Hospital researchers regarding 703 influenza inpatients over 5 seasons. The WG applied National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at patient baseline to identify appropriate criteria to enroll patients into hospital-based therapeutic trials. CONCLUSIONS: Data received by the WG indicated that hospital-based influenza therapeutic trials could use ordinal outcome analyses, ED triage to identify influenza patients, and NEWS for enrollment criteria.

Surveillance for neuraminidase inhibitor resistance among human influenza A and B viruses circulating worldwide from 2004 to 2008.

The surveillance of seasonal influenza virus susceptibility to neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors was conducted using an NA inhibition assay. The 50% inhibitory concentration values (IC(50)s) of 4,570 viruses collected globally from October 2004 to March 2008 were determined. Based on mean IC(50)s, A(H3N2) viruses (0.44 nM) were more sensitive to oseltamivir than A(H1N1) viruses (0.91 nM). The opposite trend was observed with zanamivir: 1.06 nM for A(H1N1) and 2.54 nM for A(H3N2). Influenza B viruses exhibited the least susceptibility to oseltamivir (3.42 nM) and to zanamivir (3.87 nM). To identify potentially resistant viruses (outliers), a threshold of a mean IC(50) value + 3 standard deviations was defined for type/subtype and drug. Sequence analysis of outliers was performed to identify NA changes that might be associated with reduced susceptibility. Molecular markers of oseltamivir resistance were found in six A(H1N1) viruses (H274Y) and one A(H3N2) virus (E119V) collected between 2004 and 2007. Some outliers contained previously reported mutations (e.g., I222T in the B viruses), while other mutations [e.g., R371K and H274Y in B viruses and H274N in A(H3N2) viruses) were novel. The R371K B virus outlier exhibited high levels of resistance to both inhibitors (>100 nM). A substantial variance at residue D151 was observed among A(H3N2) zanamivir-resistant outliers. The clinical relevance of newly identified NA mutations is unknown. A rise in the incidence of oseltamivir resistance in A(H1N1) viruses carrying the H274Y mutation was detected in the United States and in other countries in the ongoing 2007 to 2008 season. As of March 2008, the frequency of resistance among A(H1N1) viruses in the United States was 8.6% (50/579 isolates). The recent increase in oseltamivir resistance among A(H1N1) viruses isolated from untreated patients raises public health concerns and necessitates close monitoring of resistance to NA inhibitors.

Development of adenoviral-vector-based pandemic influenza vaccine against antigenically distinct human H5N1 strains in mice.

INTRODUCTION: Avian H5N1 influenza viruses currently circulating in southeast Asia could potentially cause the next pandemic. However, currently licensed human vaccines are subtype-specific and do not protect against these H5N1 viruses. We aimed to develop an influenza vaccine and assessed its immunogenicity and efficacy to confer protection in BALB/c mice. METHODS: We developed an egg-independent strategy to combat the avian influenza virus, because the virus is highly lethal to chickens and the maintenance of a constant supply of embryonated eggs would be difficult in a pandemic. We used a replication-incompetent, human adenoviral-vector-based, haemagglutinin subtype 5 influenza vaccine (HAd-H5HA), which induces both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses against avian H5N1 influenza viruses isolated from people. FINDINGS: Immunisation of mice with HAd-H5HA provided effective protection from H5N1 disease, death, and primary viral replication (p<0.0001) against antigenically distinct strains of H5N1 influenza viruses. Unlike the recombinant H5HA vaccine, which is based on a traditional subunit vaccine approach, HAd-H5HA vaccine induced a three-fold to eight-fold increase in HA-518-epitope-specific interferon-gamma-secreting CD8 T cells (p=0.01). INTERPRETATION: Our findings highlight the potential of an Ad-vector-based delivery system, which is both egg-independent and adjuvant-independent and offers stockpiling options for the development of a pandemic influenza vaccine.

Polygenic virulence factors involved in pathogenesis of 1997 Hong Kong H5N1 influenza viruses in mice.

Virulence factors of influenza A (H5N1) viruses collected in 1997 from mammalian hosts were examined using a BALB/c mouse model. Fifteen amino acid (aa) residues in four influenza virus genes which correlated with high- and low-pathogenic phenotypes in mice were identified by analyzing sequence alignments. In addition to these specific residues, the effects of aa residue 627 of the PB2 gene, and the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes were also investigated using a reverse genetics system established with representative viruses of low (A/Hong Kong/486/97) and high (A/Hong Kong/483/97) pathogenicity for mice. None of 15 aa residues alone had any effect on virulence. The HA and NA genes had a synergistic effect on virulence and the absence of a glycosylation site at aa154 in the HA gene also increased virulence of virus. Multiple genes are involved in virulence of Hong Kong H5N1 influenza A viruses for mice with the presence of lysine at aa627 in the PB2 gene exhibiting a significantly larger effect than the HA and NA genes.

Incidence of adamantane resistance among influenza A (H3N2) viruses isolated worldwide from 1994 to 2005: a cause for concern.

BACKGROUND: Adamantanes have been used to treat influenza A virus infections for many years. Studies have shown a low incidence of resistance to these drugs among circulating influenza viruses; however, their use is rising worldwide and drug resistance has been reported among influenza A (H5N1) viruses isolated from poultry and human beings in Asia. We sought to assess adamantane resistance among influenza A viruses isolated during the past decade from countries participating in WHO's global influenza surveillance network. METHODS: We analysed data for influenza field isolates that were obtained worldwide and submitted to the WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention between Oct 1, 1994, and Mar 31, 2005. We used pyrosequencing, confirmatory sequence analysis, and phenotypic testing to detect drug resistance among circulating influenza A H3N2 (n=6524), H1N1 (n=589), and H1N2 (n=83) viruses. FINDINGS: More than 7000 influenza A field isolates were screened for specific aminoacid substitutions in the M2 gene known to confer drug resistance. During the decade of surveillance a significant increase in drug resistance was noted, from 0.4% in 1994-1995 to 12.3% in 2003-2004. This increase in the proportion of resistant viruses was weighted heavily by those obtained from Asia with 61% of resistant viruses isolated since 2003 being from people in Asia. INTERPRETATION: Our data raise concerns about the appropriate use of adamantanes and draw attention to the importance of tracking the emergence and spread of drug-resistant influenza A viruses.