Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change.

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.

Combining multiple investigative approaches to unravel functional responses to global change in the understorey of temperate forests.

Plant communities are being exposed to changing environmental conditions all around the globe, leading to alterations in plant diversity, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. For herbaceous understorey communities in temperate forests, responses to global change are postulated to be complex, due to the presence of a tree layer that modulates understorey responses to external pressures such as climate change and changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition rates. Multiple investigative approaches have been put forward as tools to detect, quantify and predict understorey responses to these global-change drivers, including, among others, distributed resurvey studies and manipulative experiments. These investigative approaches are generally designed and reported upon in isolation, while integration across investigative approaches is rarely considered. In this study, we integrate three investigative approaches (two complementary resurvey approaches and one experimental approach) to investigate how climate warming and changes in nitrogen deposition affect the functional composition of the understorey and how functional responses in the understorey are modulated by canopy disturbance, that is, changes in overstorey canopy openness over time. Our resurvey data reveal that most changes in understorey functional characteristics represent responses to changes in canopy openness with shifts in macroclimate temperature and aerial nitrogen deposition playing secondary roles. Contrary to expectations, we found little evidence that these drivers interact. In addition, experimental findings deviated from the observational findings, suggesting that the forces driving understorey change at the regional scale differ from those driving change at the forest floor (i.e., the experimental treatments). Our study demonstrates that different approaches need to be integrated to acquire a full picture of how understorey communities respond to global change.

Directional turnover towards larger-ranged plants over time and across habitats.

Species turnover is ubiquitous. However, it remains unknown whether certain types of species are consistently gained or lost across different habitats. Here, we analysed the trajectories of 1827 plant species over time intervals of up to 78 years at 141 sites across mountain summits, forests, and lowland grasslands in Europe. We found, albeit with relatively small effect sizes, displacements of smaller- by larger-ranged species across habitats. Communities shifted in parallel towards more nutrient-demanding species, with species from nutrient-rich habitats having larger ranges. Because these species are typically strong competitors, declines of smaller-ranged species could reflect not only abiotic drivers of global change, but also biotic pressure from increased competition. The ubiquitous component of turnover based on species range size we found here may partially reconcile findings of no net loss in local diversity with global species loss, and link community-scale turnover to macroecological processes such as biotic homogenisation.

Forest understorey communities respond strongly to light in interaction with forest structure, but not to microclimate warming.

Forests harbour large spatiotemporal heterogeneity in canopy structure. This variation drives the microclimate and light availability at the forest floor. So far, we do not know how light availability and sub-canopy temperature interactively mediate the impact of macroclimate warming on understorey communities. We therefore assessed the functional response of understorey plant communities to warming and light addition in a full factorial experiment installed in temperate deciduous forests across Europe along natural microclimate, light and macroclimate gradients. Furthermore, we related these functional responses to the species' life-history syndromes and thermal niches. We found no significant community responses to the warming treatment. The light treatment, however, had a stronger impact on communities, mainly due to responses by fast-colonizing generalists and not by slow-colonizing forest specialists. The forest structure strongly mediated the response to light addition and also had a clear impact on functional traits and total plant cover. The effects of short-term experimental warming were small and suggest a time-lag in the response of understorey species to climate change. Canopy disturbance, for instance due to drought, pests or logging, has a strong and immediate impact and particularly favours generalists in the understorey in structurally complex forests.

Soil seed bank responses to edge effects in temperate European forests.

Aim: The amount of forest edges is increasing globally due to forest fragmentation and land-use changes. However, edge effects on the soil seed bank of temperate forests are still poorly understood. Here, we assessed edge effects at contrasting spatial scales across Europe and quantified the extent to which edges can preserve the seeds of forest specialist plants. Location: Temperate European deciduous forests along a 2,300-km latitudinal gradient. Time period: 2018-2021. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants. Methods: Through a greenhouse germination experiment, we studied how edge effects alter the density, diversity, composition and functionality of forest soil seed banks in 90 plots along different latitudes, elevations and forest management types. We also assessed which environmental conditions drive the seed bank responses at the forest edge versus interior and looked at the relationship between the seed bank and the herb layer species richness. Results: Overall, 10,108 seedlings of 250 species emerged from the soil seed bank. Seed density and species richness of generalists (species not only associated with forests) were higher at edges compared to interiors, with a negative influence of C : N ratio and litter quality. Conversely, forest specialist species richness did not decline from the interior to the edge. Also, edges were compositionally, but not functionally, different from interiors. The correlation between the seed bank and the herb layer species richness was positive and affected by microclimate. Main conclusions: Our results underpin how edge effects shape species diversity and composition of soil seed banks in ancient forests, especially increasing the proportion of generalist species and thus potentially favouring a shift in community composition. However, the presence of many forest specialists suggests that soil seed banks still play a key role in understorey species persistence and could support the resilience of our fragmented forests.

Temperature effects on forest understorey plants in hedgerows: a combined warming and transplant experiment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hedgerows have been shown to improve forest connectivity, leading to an increased probability of species tracking the shifting bioclimatic envelopes. However, it is still unknown how species in hedgerows respond to temperature changes, and whether effects differ compared with those in nearby forests. We aimed to elucidate how ongoing changes in the climate system will affect the efficiency of hedgerows in supporting forest plant persistence and migration in agricultural landscapes. METHODS: Here we report results from the first warming experiment in hedgerows. We combined reciprocal transplantation of plants along an 860-km latitudinal transect with experimental warming to assess the effects of temperature on vegetative growth and reproduction of two common forest herbs (Anemone nemorosa and Geum urbanum) in hedgerows versus forests. KEY RESULTS: Both species grew taller and produced more biomass in forests than in hedgerows, most likely due to higher competition with ruderals and graminoids in hedgerows. Adult plant performance of both species generally benefitted from experimental warming, despite lower survival of A. nemorosa in heated plots. Transplantation affected the species differently: A. nemorosa plants grew taller, produced more biomass and showed higher survival when transplanted at their home site, indicating local adaptation, while individuals of G. urbanum showed greater height, biomass, reproductive output and survival when transplanted northwards, likely owing to the higher light availability associated with increasing photoperiod during the growing season. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that some forest herbs can show phenotypic plasticity to warming temperatures, potentially increasing their ability to benefit from hedgerows as ecological corridors. Our study thus provides novel insights into the impacts of climate change on understorey plant community dynamics in hedgerows, and how rising temperature can influence the efficiency of these corridors to assist forest species' persistence and colonization within and beyond their current distribution range.

Earlier onset of flowering and increased reproductive allocation of an annual invasive plant in the north of its novel range.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It remains unclear whether invasive species can maintain both high biomass and reproductive output across their invaded range. Along latitudinal gradients, allocation theory predicts that faster flowering onset at high latitudes results in maturation at smaller size and thus reduced reproductive output. For annual invasive plants, more favourable environmental conditions at low latitudes probably result in stronger competition of co-occurring species, potentially driving selection for higher investment in vegetative biomass, while harsher climatic conditions and associated reproductive uncertainty at higher latitudes could reduce selection for vegetative biomass and increased selection for high reproductive investment (stress-gradient hypothesis). Combined, these drivers could result in increased or constant reproductive allocation with increasing latitude. METHODS: We quantified life-history traits in the invasive annual plant Impatiens glandulifera along a latitudinal gradient in Europe. By growing two successive glasshouse generations, we assessed genetic differentiation in vegetative growth and reproductive output across six populations, and tested whether onset of flowering drives this divergence. KEY RESULTS: Trait variation was mainly caused by genetic differentiation. As expected, flowering onset was progressively earlier in populations from higher latitudes. Plant height and vegetative biomass also decreased in populations from higher latitudes, as predicted by allocation theory, but their variation was independent of the variation in flowering onset. Reproductive output remained constant across latitudes, resulting in increased reproductive allocation towards higher latitudes, supporting the stress-gradient hypothesis. We also observed trait genetic differentiation among populations that was independent of latitude. CONCLUSIONS: We show that an annual invasive plant evolved several life-history traits across its invaded range in ~150 years. The evolution of vegetative and reproductive traits seems unconstrained by evolution of flowering onset. This genetic decoupling between vegetative and reproductive traits possibly contributes to the invasion success of this species.

Environmental drivers interactively affect individual tree growth across temperate European forests.

Forecasting the growth of tree species to future environmental changes requires a better understanding of its determinants. Tree growth is known to respond to global-change drivers such as climate change or atmospheric deposition, as well as to local land-use drivers such as forest management. Yet, large geographical scale studies examining interactive growth responses to multiple global-change drivers are relatively scarce and rarely consider management effects. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of three global-change drivers (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition) on individual tree growth of three study species (Quercus robur/petraea, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus excelsior). We sampled trees along spatial environmental gradients across Europe and accounted for the effects of management for Quercus. We collected increment cores from 267 trees distributed over 151 plots in 19 forest regions and characterized their neighbouring environment to take into account potentially confounding factors such as tree size, competition, soil conditions and elevation. We demonstrate that growth responds interactively to global-change drivers, with species-specific sensitivities to the combined factors. Simultaneously high levels of precipitation and deposition benefited Fraxinus, but negatively affected Quercus' growth, highlighting species-specific interactive tree growth responses to combined drivers. For Fagus, a stronger growth response to higher temperatures was found when precipitation was also higher, illustrating the potential negative effects of drought stress under warming for this species. Furthermore, we show that past forest management can modulate the effects of changing temperatures on Quercus' growth; individuals in plots with a coppicing history showed stronger growth responses to higher temperatures. Overall, our findings highlight how tree growth can be interactively determined by global-change drivers, and how these growth responses might be modulated by past forest management. By showing future growth changes for scenarios of environmental change, we stress the importance of considering multiple drivers, including past management and their interactions, when predicting tree growth.

No genetic erosion after five generations for Impatiens glandulifera populations across the invaded range in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The observation that many alien species become invasive despite low genetic diversity has long been considered the 'genetic paradox' in invasion biology. This paradox is often resolved through the temporal buildup genetic diversity through multiple introduction events. These temporal dynamics in genetic diversity are especially important for annual invasive plants that lack a persistent seed bank, for which population persistence is strongly dependent on consecutive seed 're-establishment' in each growing season. Theory predicts that the number of seeds during re-establishment, and the levels of among-population gene flow can strongly affect recolonization dynamics, resulting in either an erosion or build-up of population genetic diversity through time. This study focuses on temporal changes in the population genetic structure of the annual invasive plant Impatiens glandulifera across Europe. We resampled 13 populations in 6 regions along a 1600 km long latitudinal gradient from northern France to central Norway after 5 years, and assessed population genetic diversity with 9 microsatellite markers. RESULTS: Our study suggests sufficiently high numbers of genetically diverse founders during population re-establishment, which prevent the erosion of local genetic diversity. We furthermore observe that I. glandulifera experiences significant among-population gene flow, gradually resulting in higher genetic diversity and lower overall genetic differentiation through time. Nonetheless, moderate founder effects concerning population genetic composition (allele frequencies) were evident, especially for smaller populations. Despite the initially low genetic diversity, this species seems to be successful at persisting across its invaded range, and will likely continue to build up higher genetic diversity at the local scale.

Seasonal drivers of understorey temperature buffering in temperate deciduous forests across Europe.

AIM: Forest understorey microclimates are often buffered against extreme heat or cold, with important implications for the organisms living in these environments. We quantified seasonal effects of understorey microclimate predictors describing canopy structure, canopy composition and topography (i.e., local factors) and the forest patch size and distance to the coast (i.e., landscape factors). LOCATION: Temperate forests in Europe. TIME PERIOD: 2017-2018. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Woody plants. METHODS: We combined data from a microclimate sensor network with weather-station records to calculate the difference, or offset, between temperatures measured inside and outside forests. We used regression analysis to study the effects of local and landscape factors on the seasonal offset of minimum, mean and maximum temperatures. RESULTS: The maximum temperature during the summer was on average cooler by 2.1 °C inside than outside forests, and the minimum temperatures during the winter and spring were 0.4 and 0.9 °C warmer. The local canopy cover was a strong nonlinear driver of the maximum temperature offset during summer, and we found increased cooling beneath tree species that cast the deepest shade. Seasonal offsets of minimum temperature were mainly regulated by landscape and topographic features, such as the distance to the coast and topographic position. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Forest organisms experience less severe temperature extremes than suggested by currently available macroclimate data; therefore, climate-species relationships and the responses of species to anthropogenic global warming cannot be modelled accurately in forests using macroclimate data alone. Changes in canopy cover and composition will strongly modulate the warming of maximum temperatures in forest understories, with important implications for understanding the responses of forest biodiversity and functioning to the combined threats of land-use change and climate change. Our predictive models are generally applicable across lowland temperate deciduous forests, providing ecologically important microclimate data for forest understories.

Half a century of multiple anthropogenic stressors has altered northern forest understory plant communities.

Boreal forests form the largest and least disturbed forest biome in the northern hemisphere. However, anthropogenic pressure from intensified forest management, eutrophication, and climate change may alter the ecosystem functions of understory vegetation and services boreal forests provide. Swedish forests span long gradients of climate, nitrogen deposition, and management intensity. This makes them ideal to study how the species composition and functions of other, more pristine, boreal forests might change under increased anthropogenic pressure. Moreover, the National Forest Inventory (NFI) has collected systematic data on Swedish forest vegetation since the mid-20th century. We use this data to quantify changes in vegetation types between two periods, 1953-1962 and 2003-2012. The results show changes in forest understory vegetation since the 1950s at scales not previously documented in the boreal biome. The spatial extent of most vegetation types changed significantly. Shade-adapted and nutrient-demanding species (those with high specific leaf area) have become more common at the expense of light-demanding and nutrient-conservative (low specific leaf area) species. The cover of ericaceous dwarf shrubs decreased dramatically. These effects were strongest where anthropogenic impacts were greatest, suggesting links to drivers such as nitrogen deposition and land-use change. These changes may impact ecosystem functions and services via effects on higher trophic levels and faster plant litter decomposition in the expanding vegetation types. This, in turn, may influence nutrient dynamics, and consequently ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration.

Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies.

The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land-use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey-resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites' contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change.

Peatland plant communities under global change: negative feedback loops counteract shifts in species composition.

Mires (bogs and fens) are nutrient-limited peatland ecosystems, the vegetation of which is especially sensitive to nitrogen deposition and climate change. The role of mires in the global carbon cycle, and the delivery of different ecosystem services can be considerably altered by changes in the vegetation, which has a strong impact on peat-formation and hydrology. Mire ecosystems are commonly open with limited canopy cover but both nitrogen deposition and increased temperatures may increase the woody vegetation component. It has been predicted that such an increase in tree cover and the associated effects on light and water regimes would cause a positive feed-back loop with respect to the ground vegetation. None of these effects, however, have so far been confirmed in large-scale spatiotemporal studies. Here we analyzed data pertaining to mire vegetation from the Swedish National Forest Inventory collected from permanent sample plots over a period of 20 yr along a latitudinal gradient covering 14°. We hypothesized that the changes would be larger in the southern parts as a result of higher nitrogen deposition and warmer climate. Our results showed an increase in woody vegetation with increases in most ericaceous dwarf-shrubs and in the basal area of trees. These changes were, in contrast to our expectations, evenly distributed over most of the latitudinal gradient. While nitrogen deposition is elevated in the south, the increase in temperatures during recent decades has been larger in the north. Hence, we suggest that different processes in the north and south have produced similar vegetation changes along the latitudinal gradient. There was, however, a sharp increase in compositional change at high deposition, indicating a threshold effect in the response. Instead of a positive feed-back loop caused by the tree layer, an increase in canopy cover reduced the changes in composition of the ground vegetation, whereas a decrease in canopy cover lead to larger changes. Increased natural disturbances of the tree layer due to, for example, pathogens or climate is a predicted outcome of climate change. Hence, these results may have important implications for predictions of long-term effects of increased temperature on peatland vegetation.

Phosphorus and nitrogen co-limitation of forest ground vegetation under elevated anthropogenic nitrogen deposition.

Plant growth in northern forest ecosystems is considered to be primarily nitrogen limited. Nitrogen deposition is predicted to change this towards co-limitation/limitation by other nutrients (e.g., phosphorus), although evidence of such stoichiometric effects is scarce. We utilized two forest fertilization experiments in southern Sweden to analyze single and combined effects of nitrogen and phosphorus on the productivity, composition, and diversity of the ground vegetation. Our results indicate that the productivity of forest ground vegetation in southern Sweden is co-limited by nitrogen and phosphorus. Additionally, the combined effect of nitrogen and phosphorus on the productivity was larger than when applied solely. No effects on species richness of any of these two nutrients were observed when applied separately, while applied in combination, they increased species richness and changed species composition, mainly by promoting more mesotrophic species. All these effects, however, occurred only for the vascular plants and not for bryophytes. The tree layer in a forest has a profound impact on the productivity and diversity of the ground vegetation by competing for both light and nutrients. This was confirmed in our study where a combination of nitrogen and high tree basal area reduced cover of the ground vegetation compared to all the other treatments where basal area was lower after stand thinning. During the past decades, nitrogen deposition may have further increased this competition from the trees for phosphorus and gradually reduced ground vegetation diversity. Phosphorus limitation induced by nitrogen deposition may, thus, contribute to ongoing changes in forest ground vegetation.

Biotic and abiotic drivers of intraspecific trait variation within plant populations of three herbaceous plant species along a latitudinal gradient.

BACKGROUND: The importance of intraspecific trait variation (ITV) is increasingly acknowledged among plant ecologists. However, our understanding of what drives ITV between individual plants (ITVBI) at the population level is still limited. Contrasting theoretical hypotheses state that ITVBI can be either suppressed (stress-reduced plasticity hypothesis) or enhanced (stress-induced variability hypothesis) under high abiotic stress. Similarly, other hypotheses predict either suppressed (niche packing hypothesis) or enhanced ITVBI (individual variation hypothesis) under high niche packing in species rich communities. In this study we assess the relative effects of both abiotic and biotic niche effects on ITVBI of four functional traits (leaf area, specific leaf area, plant height and seed mass), for three herbaceous plant species across a 2300 km long gradient in Europe. The study species were the slow colonizing Anemone nemorosa, a species with intermediate colonization rates, Milium effusum, and the fast colonizing, non-native Impatiens glandulifera. RESULTS: Climatic stress consistently increased ITVBI across species and traits. Soil nutrient stress, on the other hand, reduced ITVBI for A. nemorosa and I. glandulifera, but had a reversed effect for M. effusum. We furthermore observed a reversed effect of high niche packing on ITVBI for the fast colonizing non-native I. glandulifera (increased ITVBI), as compared to the slow colonizing native A. nemorosa and M. effusum (reduced ITVBI). Additionally, ITVBI in the fast colonizing species tended to be highest for the vegetative traits plant height and leaf area, but lowest for the measured generative trait seed mass. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that stress can both reduce and increase ITVBI, seemingly supporting both the stress-reduced plasticity and stress-induced variability hypotheses. Similarly, niche packing effects on ITVBI supported both the niche packing hypothesis and the individual variation hypothesis. These results clearly illustrates the importance of simultaneously evaluating both abiotic and biotic factors on ITVBI. This study adds to the growing realization that within-population trait variation should not be ignored and can provide valuable ecological insights.

Environmental drivers of Ixodes ricinus abundance in forest fragments of rural European landscapes.

BACKGROUND: The castor bean tick (Ixodes ricinus) transmits infectious diseases such as Lyme borreliosis, which constitutes an important ecosystem disservice. Despite many local studies, a comprehensive understanding of the key drivers of tick abundance at the continental scale is still lacking. We analyze a large set of environmental factors as potential drivers of I. ricinus abundance. Our multi-scale study was carried out in deciduous forest fragments dispersed within two contrasting rural landscapes of eight regions, along a macroclimatic gradient stretching from southern France to central Sweden and Estonia. We surveyed the abundance of I. ricinus, plant community composition, forest structure and soil properties and compiled data on landscape structure, macroclimate and habitat properties. We used linear mixed models to analyze patterns and derived the relative importance of the significant drivers. RESULTS: Many drivers had, on their own, either a moderate or small explanatory value for the abundance of I. ricinus, but combined they explained a substantial part of variation. This emphasizes the complex ecology of I. ricinus and the relevance of environmental factors for tick abundance. Macroclimate only explained a small fraction of variation, while properties of macro- and microhabitat, which buffer macroclimate, had a considerable impact on tick abundance. The amount of forest and the composition of the surrounding rural landscape were additionally important drivers of tick abundance. Functional (dispersules) and structural (density of tree and shrub layers) properties of the habitat patch played an important role. Various diversity metrics had only a small relative importance. Ontogenetic tick stages showed pronounced differences in their response. The abundance of nymphs and adults is explained by the preceding stage with a positive relationship, indicating a cumulative effect of drivers. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the ecosystem disservices of tick-borne diseases, via the abundance of ticks, strongly depends on habitat properties and thus on how humans manage ecosystems from the scale of the microhabitat to the landscape. This study stresses the need to further evaluate the interaction between climate change and ecosystem management on I. ricinus abundance.

Trait variations of ground flora species disentangle the effects of global change and altered land-use in Swedish forests during 20 years.

Northern forest ecosystems are exposed to a range of anthropogenic processes including global warming, atmospheric deposition, and changing land-use. The vegetation of northern forests is composed of species with several functional traits related to these processes, whose effects may be difficult to disentangle. Here, we combined analyses of spatio-temporal dynamics and functional traits of ground flora species, including morphological characteristics, responses to macro- and microclimate, soil conditions, and disturbance. Based on data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, we compared changes in occurrence of a large number of ground flora species during a 20-year period (1994-2013) in boreal and temperate Sweden respectively. Our results show that a majority of the common ground flora species have changed their overall frequency. Comparisons of functional traits between increasing and declining species, and of trends in mean trait values of sample plots, indicate that current floristic changes are caused by combined effects of climate warming, nitrogen deposition and changing land-use. Changes and their relations with plant traits were generally larger in temperate southern Sweden. Nutrient-demanding species with mesotrophic morphology were favored by ongoing eutrophication due to nitrogen deposition in the temperate zone, while dwarf shrubs with low demands on nitrogen decreased in frequency. An increase of species with less northern and less eastern distribution limits was also restricted to temperate Sweden, and indicates effects of a moister and milder macroclimate. A trend toward dense plantation forests is mirrored by a decrease of light-demanding species in both vegetation zones, and a decrease of grassland species in the temperate zone. Although denser tree canopies may buffer effects of a warmer climate and of nitrogen deposition to some extent, traits related to these processes were weakly correlated in the group of species with changing frequency. Hence, our results indicate specific effects of these often confounded anthropogenic processes.

Combining community resurvey data to advance global change research.

More and more ecologists have started to resurvey communities sampled in earlier decades to determine long-term shifts in community composition and infer the likely drivers of the ecological changes observed. However, to assess the relative importance of, and interactions among, multiple drivers joint analyses of resurvey data from many regions spanning large environmental gradients are needed. In this paper we illustrate how combining resurvey data from multiple regions can increase the likelihood of driver-orthogonality within the design and show that repeatedly surveying across multiple regions provides higher representativeness and comprehensiveness, allowing us to answer more completely a broader range of questions. We provide general guidelines to aid implementation of multi-region resurvey databases. In so doing, we aim to encourage resurvey database development across other community types and biomes to advance global environmental change research.

Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming.

Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass--e.g., for bioenergy--may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.

Drivers of temporal changes in temperate forest plant diversity vary across spatial scales.

Global biodiversity is affected by numerous environmental drivers. Yet, the extent to which global environmental changes contribute to changes in local diversity is poorly understood. We investigated biodiversity changes in a meta-analysis of 39 resurvey studies in European temperate forests (3988 vegetation records in total, 17-75 years between the two surveys) by assessing the importance of (i) coarse-resolution (i.e., among sites) vs. fine-resolution (i.e., within sites) environmental differences and (ii) changing environmental conditions between surveys. Our results clarify the mechanisms underlying the direction and magnitude of local-scale biodiversity changes. While not detecting any net local diversity loss, we observed considerable among-site variation, partly explained by temporal changes in light availability (a local driver) and density of large herbivores (a regional driver). Furthermore, strong evidence was found that presurvey levels of nitrogen deposition determined subsequent diversity changes. We conclude that models forecasting future biodiversity changes should consider coarse-resolution environmental changes, account for differences in baseline environmental conditions and for local changes in fine-resolution environmental conditions.