Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in select countries - volume 2.

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection disease burden - volume 2.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 2.

Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Height and surfacing as risk factors for injury in falls from playground equipment: a case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite the widespread promotion of safety standards no epidemiological studies have adequately evaluated their effectiveness in preventing injury in falls from playground equipment. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the height and surfacing requirements of the New Zealand standard for playgrounds and playground equipment. SETTING: Early childhood education centres and schools in two major cities in the South Island of New Zealand. METHODS: Data were collected on 300 children aged 14 years or less who had fallen from playground equipment. Of these, 110 (cases) had sustained injury and received medical attention, while 190 (controls) had not sustained injury requiring medical attention. RESULTS: Logistic regression models fitted to the data indicated that the risk of injury being sustained in a fall was increased if the equipment failed to comply with the maximum fall height (odds ratio (OR) = 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7 to 13.1), surfacing (OR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.0 to 5.0), or safe fall height (OR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.1 to 4.0) requirements. Falls from heights in excess of 1.5 metres increased the risk of injury 4.1 times that of falls from 1.5 metres or less and it was estimated that a 45% reduction in children attending emergency departments could be achieved if the maximum fall height was lowered to 1.5 metres. CONCLUSIONS: Although the height and surfacing requirements of the New Zealand standard are effective in preventing injury in falls from playground equipment, consideration should be given to lowering the maximum permissible fall height to 1.5 metres.