Predictors at Admission of Mechanical Ventilation and Death in an Observational Cohort of Adults Hospitalized With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) can cause severe illness and death. Predictors of poor outcome collected on hospital admission may inform clinical and public health decisions. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort investigation of 297 adults admitted to 8 academic and community hospitals in Georgia, United States, during March 2020. Using standardized medical record abstraction, we collected data on predictors including admission demographics, underlying medical conditions, outpatient antihypertensive medications, recorded symptoms, vital signs, radiographic findings, and laboratory values. We used random forest models to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for predictors of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and death. RESULTS: Compared with age <45 years, ages 65-74 years and ≥75 years were predictors of IMV (aORs, 3.12 [95% CI, 1.47-6.60] and 2.79 [95% CI, 1.23-6.33], respectively) and the strongest predictors for death (aORs, 12.92 [95% CI, 3.26-51.25] and 18.06 [95% CI, 4.43-73.63], respectively). Comorbidities associated with death (aORs, 2.4-3.8; P < .05) included end-stage renal disease, coronary artery disease, and neurologic disorders, but not pulmonary disease, immunocompromise, or hypertension. Prehospital use vs nonuse of angiotensin receptor blockers (aOR, 2.02 [95% CI, 1.03-3.96]) and dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (aOR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.03-3.55]) were associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for patient and clinical characteristics, older age was the strongest predictor of death, exceeding comorbidities, abnormal vital signs, and laboratory test abnormalities. That coronary artery disease, but not chronic lung disease, was associated with death among hospitalized patients warrants further investigation, as do associations between certain antihypertensive medications and death.

Characteristics and Clinical Outcomes of Adult Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 - Georgia, March 2020.

SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was first detected in the United States during January 2020 (1). Since then, >980,000 cases have been reported in the United States, including >55,000 associated deaths as of April 28, 2020 (2). Detailed data on demographic characteristics, underlying medical conditions, and clinical outcomes for persons hospitalized with COVID-19 are needed to inform prevention strategies and community-specific intervention messages. For this report, CDC, the Georgia Department of Public Health, and eight Georgia hospitals (seven in metropolitan Atlanta and one in southern Georgia) summarized medical record-abstracted data for hospitalized adult patients with laboratory-confirmed* COVID-19 who were admitted during March 2020. Among 305 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, 61.6% were aged <65 years, 50.5% were female, and 83.2% with known race/ethnicity were non-Hispanic black (black). Over a quarter of patients (26.2%) did not have conditions thought to put them at higher risk for severe disease, including being aged ≥65 years. The proportion of hospitalized patients who were black was higher than expected based on overall hospital admissions. In an adjusted time-to-event analysis, black patients were not more likely than were nonblack patients to receive invasive mechanical ventilation† (IMV) or to die during hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.35-1.13). Given the overrepresentation of black patients within this hospitalized cohort, it is important for public health officials to ensure that prevention activities prioritize communities and racial/ethnic groups most affected by COVID-19. Clinicians and public officials should be aware that all adults, regardless of underlying conditions or age, are at risk for serious illness from COVID-19.

Risks of miscarriage and inadvertent exposure to artemisinin derivatives in the first trimester of pregnancy: a prospective cohort study in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The artemisinin anti-malarials are widely deployed as artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). However, they are not recommended for uncomplicated malaria during the first trimester because safety data from humans are scarce. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of women of child-bearing age carried out in 2011-2013, evaluating the relationship between inadvertent ACT exposure during first trimester and miscarriage. Community-based surveillance was used to identify 1134 early pregnancies. Cox proportional hazard models with left truncation were used. RESULTS: The risk of miscarriage among pregnancies exposed to ACT (confirmed + unconfirmed) in the first trimester, or during the embryo-sensitive period (≥6 to <13 weeks gestation) was higher than among pregnancies unexposed to anti-malarials in the first trimester: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.70, 95 % CI (1.08-2.68) and HR = 1.61 (0.96-2.70). For confirmed ACT-exposures (primary analysis) the corresponding values were: HR = 1.24 (0.56-2.74) and HR = 0.73 (0.19-2.82) relative to unexposed women, and HR = 0.99 (0.12-8.33) and HR = 0.32 (0.03-3.61) relative to quinine exposure, but the numbers of quinine exposures were very small. CONCLUSION: ACT exposure in early pregnancy was more common than quinine exposure. Confirmed inadvertent artemisinin exposure during the potential embryo-sensitive period was not associated with increased risk of miscarriage. Confirmatory studies are needed to rule out a smaller than three-fold increase in risk.

Epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus infection in rural and urban Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Information on the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in Africa is limited for crowded urban areas and for rural areas where the prevalence of malaria is high. METHODS: At referral facilities in rural western Kenya and a Nairobi slum, we collected nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swab specimens from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and from asymptomatic controls. Polymerase chain reaction assays were used for detection of viral pathogens. We calculated age-specific ratios of the odds of RSV detection among patients versus the odds among controls. Incidence was expressed as the number of episodes per 1000 person-years of observation. RESULTS: Between March 2007 and February 2011, RSV was detected in 501 of 4012 NP/OP swab specimens (12.5%) from children and adults in the rural site and in 321 of 2744 NP/OP swab specimens (11.7%) from those in the urban site. Among children aged <5 years, RSV was detected more commonly among rural children with SARI (odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.3), urban children with SARI (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 3.1-23.6), and urban children with ILI (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2-9.6), compared with controls. The incidence of RSV disease was highest among infants with SARI aged <1 year (86.9 and 62.8 episodes per 1000 person-years of observation in rural and urban sites, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: An effective RSV vaccine would likely substantially reduce the burden of respiratory illness among children in rural and urban areas in Africa.

Respiratory syncytial virus circulation in seven countries with Global Disease Detection Regional Centers.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in young children globally, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries where the association between RSV activity and climate remains unclear. METHODS: Monthly laboratory-confirmed RSV cases and associations with climate data were assessed for respiratory surveillance sites in tropical and subtropical areas (Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Kenya, South Africa, and Thailand) during 2004-2012. Average monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation were calculated using daily local weather data from the US National Climatic Data Center. RESULTS: RSV circulated with 1-2 epidemic periods each year in site areas. RSV seasonal timing and duration were generally consistent within country from year to year. Associations between RSV and weather varied across years and geographic locations. RSV usually peaked in climates with high annual precipitation (Bangladesh, Guatemala, and Thailand) during wet months, whereas RSV peaked during cooler months in moderately hot (China) and arid (Egypt) regions. In South Africa, RSV peaked in autumn, whereas no associations with seasonal weather trends were observed in Kenya. CONCLUSIONS: Further understanding of RSV seasonality in developing countries and various climate regions will be important to better understand the epidemiology of RSV and for timing the use of future RSV vaccines and immunoprophylaxis in low- and middle-income countries.

Influenza and malaria coinfection among young children in western Kenya, 2009-2011.

BACKGROUND: Although children <5 years old in sub-Saharan Africa are vulnerable to both malaria and influenza, little is known about coinfection. METHODS: This retrospective, cross-sectional study in rural western Kenya examined outpatient visits and hospitalizations associated with febrile acute respiratory illness (ARI) during a 2-year period (July 2009-June 2011) in children <5 years old. RESULTS: Across sites, 45% (149/331) of influenza-positive patients were coinfected with malaria, whereas only 6% (149/2408) of malaria-positive patients were coinfected with influenza. Depending on age, coinfection was present in 4%-8% of outpatient visits and 1%-3% of inpatient admissions for febrile ARI. Children with influenza were less likely than those without to have malaria (risk ratio [RR], 0.57-0.76 across sites and ages), and children with malaria were less likely than those without to have influenza (RR, 0.36-0.63). Among coinfected children aged 24-59 months, hospital length of stay was 2.7 and 2.8 days longer than influenza-only-infected children at the 2 sites, and 1.3 and 3.1 days longer than those with malaria only (all P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Coinfection with malaria and influenza was uncommon but associated with longer hospitalization than single infections among children 24-59 months of age.

Sociodemographic and Clinical Characteristics Associated With Recent Incarceration Among People With HIV, United States, 2015-2017.

OBJECTIVES: We examined sociodemographic, clinical, and behavioral factors associated with previous incarceration among people with diagnosed HIV to inform HIV care efforts for this population. METHODS: We used 2015-2017 data from a cross-sectional, nationally representative sample of US adults with diagnosed HIV (N = 11 739). We computed weighted percentages and 95% CIs to compare the characteristics of people with HIV incarcerated in the past 12 months (ie, recently) with people with HIV not recently incarcerated. We used adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) with predicted marginal means to examine associations between selected factors and incarceration status. RESULTS: Adults with HIV who were recently incarcerated, when compared with those who were not, were more likely to be aged 18-29 years (prevalence ratio [PR] = 2.51), non-Hispanic Black (PR = 1.39), less educated (

Healthcare-seeking behaviour for common infectious disease-related illnesses in rural Kenya: a community-based house-to-house survey.

Community surveys of healthcare-use determine the proportion of illness episodes not captured by health facility-based surveillance, the methodology used most commonly to estimate the burden of disease in Africa. A cross-sectional survey of households with children aged less than five years was conducted in 35 of 686 census enumeration areas in rural Bondo district, western Kenya. Healthcare sought for acute episodes of diarrhoea or fever in the past two weeks or pneumonia in the past year was evaluated. Factors associated with healthcare-seeking were analyzed by logistic regression accounting for sample design. In total, 6,223 residents of 981 households were interviewed. Of 1,679 children aged less than five years, 233 (14%) had diarrhoea, and 736 (44%) had fever during the past two weeks; care at health facilities was sought for one-third of these episodes. Pneumonia in the past year was reported for 64 (4%) children aged less than five years; 88% sought healthcare at any health facility and 48% at hospitals. Seeking healthcare at health facilities was more likely for children from households with higher socioeconomic status and with more symptoms of severe illness. Health facility and hospital-based surveillance would underestimate the burden of disease substantially in rural western Kenya. Seeking healthcare at health facilities and hospitals varied by syndrome, severity of illness, and characteristics of the patient.

COVID-19 Clinical Phenotypes: Presentation and Temporal Progression of Disease in a Cohort of Hospitalized Adults in Georgia, United States.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological features and outcomes of hospitalized adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been described; however, the temporal progression and medical complications of disease among hospitalized patients require further study. Detailed descriptions of the natural history of COVID-19 among hospitalized patients are paramount to optimize health care resource utilization, and the detection of different clinical phenotypes may allow tailored clinical management strategies. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 305 adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in 8 academic and community hospitals. Patient characteristics included demographics, comorbidities, medication use, medical complications, intensive care utilization, and longitudinal vital sign and laboratory test values. We examined laboratory and vital sign trends by mortality status and length of stay. To identify clinical phenotypes, we calculated Gower's dissimilarity matrix between each patient's clinical characteristics and clustered similar patients using the partitioning around medoids algorithm. RESULTS: One phenotype of 6 identified was characterized by high mortality (49%), older age, male sex, elevated inflammatory markers, high prevalence of cardiovascular disease, and shock. Patients with this severe phenotype had significantly elevated peak C-reactive protein creatinine, D-dimer, and white blood cell count and lower minimum lymphocyte count compared with other phenotypes (P < .01, all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Among a cohort of hospitalized adults, we identified a severe phenotype of COVID-19 based on the characteristics of its clinical course and poor prognosis. These findings need to be validated in other cohorts, as improved understanding of clinical phenotypes and risk factors for their development could help inform prognosis and tailored clinical management for COVID-19.

Socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in the incidence of bacteremic pneumonia among US adults.

OBJECTIVES: We examined associations between the socioeconomic characteristics of census tracts and racial/ethnic disparities in the incidence of bacteremic community-acquired pneumonia among US adults. METHODS: We analyzed data on 4870 adults aged 18 years or older with community-acquired bacteremic pneumonia identified through active, population-based surveillance in 9 states and geocoded to census tract of residence. We used data from the 2000 US Census to calculate incidence by age, race/ethnicity, and census tract characteristics and Poisson regression to estimate rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During 2003 to 2004, the average annual incidence of bacteremic pneumonia was 24.2 episodes per 100 000 Black adults versus 10.1 per 100 000 White adults (RR = 2.40; 95% CI = 2.24, 2.57). Incidence among Black residents of census tracts with 20% or more of persons in poverty (most impoverished) was 4.4 times the incidence among White residents of census tracts with less than 5% of persons in poverty (least impoverished). Racial disparities in incidence were reduced but remained significant in models that controlled for age, census tract poverty level, and state. CONCLUSIONS: Adults living in impoverished census tracts are at increased risk of bacteremic pneumonia and should be targeted for prevention efforts.

Rotavirus disease burden and impact and cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccination program in kenya.

BACKGROUND: The projected impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination are important for supporting rotavirus vaccine introduction in Africa, where limited health intervention funds are available. METHODS: Hospital records, health utilization surveys, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance data on diarrheal disease were used to determine rotavirus-specific rates of hospitalization, clinic visits, and deaths due to diarrhea among children <5 years of age in Nyanza Province, Kenya. Rates were extrapolated nationally with use of province-specific data on diarrheal illness. Direct medical costs were estimated using record review and World Health Organization estimates. Household costs were collected through parental interviews. The impact of vaccination on health burden and on the cost-effectiveness per disability-adjusted life-year and lives saved were calculated. RESULTS: Annually in Kenya, rotavirus infection causes 19% of hospitalizations and 16% of clinic visits for diarrhea among children <5 years of age and causes 4471 deaths, 8781 hospitalizations, and 1,443,883 clinic visits. Nationally, rotavirus disease costs the health care system $10.8 million annually. Routine vaccination with a 2-dose rotavirus vaccination series would avert 2467 deaths (55%), 5724 hospitalizations (65%), and 852,589 clinic visits (59%) and would save 58 disability-adjusted life-years per 1000 children annually. At $3 per series, a program would cost $2.1 million in medical costs annually; the break-even price is $2.07 per series. CONCLUSIONS: A rotavirus vaccination program would reduce the substantial burden of rotavirus disease and the economic burden in Kenya.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus central line-associated bloodstream infections in US intensive care units, 1997-2007.

CONTEXT: Concerns about rates of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) health care-associated infections have prompted calls for mandatory screening or reporting in efforts to reduce MRSA infections. OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in the incidence of MRSA central line-associated bloodstream infections (BSIs) in US intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data reported by hospitals to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 1997-2007 were used to calculate pooled mean annual central line-associated BSI incidence rates for 7 types of adult and non-neonatal pediatric ICUs. Percent MRSA was defined as the proportion of S aureus central line-associated BSIs that were MRSA. We used regression modeling to estimate percent changes in central line-associated BSI metrics over the analysis period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rate of central line-associated BSIs per 1000 central line days; percent MRSA among S. aureus central line-associated BSIs. RESULTS: Overall, 33,587 central line-associated BSIs were reported from 1684 ICUs representing 16,225,498 patient-days of surveillance; 2498 reported central line-associated BSIs (7.4%) were MRSA and 1590 (4.7%) were methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA). Of evaluated ICU types, surgical, nonteaching-affiliated medical-surgical, cardiothoracic, and coronary units experienced increases in MRSA central line-associated BSI incidence in the 1997-2001 period; however, medical, teaching-affiliated medical-surgical, and pediatric units experienced no significant changes. From 2001 through 2007, MRSA central line-associated BSI incidence declined significantly in all ICU types except in pediatric units, for which incidence rates remained static. Declines in MRSA central line-associated BSI incidence ranged from -51.5% (95% CI, -33.7% to -64.6%; P < .001) in nonteaching-affiliated medical-surgical ICUs (0.31 vs 0.15 per 1000 central line days) to -69.2% (95% CI, -57.9% to -77.7%; P < .001) in surgical ICUs (0.58 vs 0.18 per 1000 central line days). In all ICU types, MSSA central line-associated BSI incidence declined from 1997 through 2007, with changes in incidence ranging from -60.1% (95% CI, -41.2% to -73.1%; P < .001) in surgical ICUs (0.24 vs 0.10 per 1000 central line days) to -77.7% (95% CI, -68.2% to -84.4%; P < .001) in medical ICUs (0.40 vs 0.09 per 1000 central line days). Although the overall proportion of S. aureus central line-associated BSIs due to MRSA increased 25.8% (P = .02) in the 1997-2007 period, overall MRSA central line-associated BSI incidence decreased 49.6% (P < .001) over this period. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of MRSA central line-associated BSI has been decreasing in recent years in most ICU types reporting to the CDC. These trends are not apparent when only percent MRSA is monitored.

Epidemiology of tuberculosis among children and adolescents in the USA, 2007-17: an analysis of national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Understanding tuberculosis epidemiology among children and adolescents informs treatment and prevention efforts, and efforts to eliminate disparities in tuberculosis incidence and mortality. We sought to describe the epidemiology of children and adolescents with tuberculosis disease in the USA, including tuberculosis incidence rates by parental country of birth and for US territories and freely associated states, which have not been previously described. METHODS: We analysed data for children aged younger than 15 years and adolescents aged 15-17 years with tuberculosis disease reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System during 2007-17, and calculated tuberculosis incidence rates using population estimates from the US Census Bureau. FINDINGS: During 2010-17, 6072 tuberculosis cases occurred among children and adolescents; of these, 5175 (85%) of 6072 occurred in the 50 US states or the District of Columbia and 897 (15%) of 6072 in US-affiliated islands. In US states, 3520 (68%) of 5175 cases occurred among US-born people overall, including 2977 (76%) of 3896 children and 543 (42%) of 1279 adolescents. The incidence rate among children and adolescents was 1·0 per 100 000 person-years during 2007-17 and declined 47·8% (95% CI -51·4 to -44·1) during this period. We observed disproportionately high tuberculosis rates among children and adolescents of all non-white racial or ethnic groups, people living in US-affiliated islands, and children born in or with parents from tuberculosis-endemic countries. INTERPRETATION: Overall, tuberculosis incidence among children and adolescents in the USA is low and steadily declining, but additional efforts are needed to eliminate disparities in incidence and mortality. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Group a streptococcal disease in long-term care facilities: descriptive epidemiology and potential control measures.

Group A streptococci (GAS) are an important cause of severe, life-threatening illness among the elderly population, particularly those individuals residing in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Outbreaks of GAS infection are potentially devastating in this vulnerable population and often require large-scale control efforts involving LTCF staff, public health officials, and infectious diseases practitioners. Although multiple outbreaks of GAS infection in LTCFs have been described in the medical literature, this topic has not been reviewed for 15 years, and there is a need for updated guidance on how to approach GAS infection outbreak control. We reviewed published documents on GAS infection in LTCFs to describe the current understanding of the disease's epidemiology in this setting, identify techniques for outbreak investigation and prevention, and expose areas where additional research is needed. We highlight well-accepted prevention and control strategies that can be employed during investigation and control of GAS infection outbreaks in LTCFs.

Weekly miscarriage rates in a community-based prospective cohort study in rural western Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: Information on adverse pregnancy outcomes is important to monitor the impact of public health interventions. Miscarriage is a challenging end point to ascertain and there is scarce information on its rate in low-income countries. The objective was to estimate the background rate and cumulative probability of miscarriage in rural western Kenya. DESIGN: This was a population-based prospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Women of childbearing age were followed prospectively to identify pregnancies and ascertain their outcomes in Siaya County, western Kenya. The cohort study was carried out in 33 adjacent villages under health and demographic surveillance. OUTCOME MEASURE: Miscarriage. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2013, among 5536 women of childbearing age, 1453 pregnancies were detected and 1134 were included in the analysis. The cumulative probability was 18.9%. The weekly miscarriage rate declined steadily with increasing gestation until approximately 20 weeks. Known risk factors for miscarriage such as maternal age, gravidity, occupation, household wealth and HIV infection were confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of weekly miscarriage rates in a rural African setting in the context of high HIV and malaria prevalence. Future studies should consider the involvement of community health workers to identify the pregnancy cohort of early gestation for better data on the actual number of pregnancies and the assessment of miscarriage.

Risk of Injection-Site Abscess among Infants Receiving a Preservative-Free, Two-Dose Vial Formulation of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Kenya.

There is a theoretical risk of adverse events following immunization with a preservative-free, 2-dose vial formulation of 10-valent-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We set out to measure this risk. Four population-based surveillance sites in Kenya (total annual birth cohort of 11,500 infants) were used to conduct a 2-year post-introduction vaccine safety study of PCV10. Injection-site abscesses occurring within 7 days following vaccine administration were clinically diagnosed in all study sites (passive facility-based surveillance) and, also, detected by caregiver-reported symptoms of swelling plus discharge in two sites (active household-based surveillance). Abscess risk was expressed as the number of abscesses per 100,000 injections and was compared for the second vs first vial dose of PCV10 and for PCV10 vs pentavalent vaccine (comparator). A total of 58,288 PCV10 injections were recorded, including 24,054 and 19,702 identified as first and second vial doses, respectively (14,532 unknown vial dose). The risk ratio for abscess following injection with the second (41 per 100,000) vs first (33 per 100,000) vial dose of PCV10 was 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-4.06). The comparator vaccine was changed from a 2-dose to 10-dose presentation midway through the study. The matched odds ratios for abscess following PCV10 were 1.00 (95% CI 0.12-8.56) and 0.27 (95% CI 0.14-0.54) when compared to the 2-dose and 10-dose pentavalent vaccine presentations, respectively. In Kenya immunization with PCV10 was not associated with an increased risk of injection site abscess, providing confidence that the vaccine may be safely used in Africa. The relatively higher risk of abscess following the 10-dose presentation of pentavalent vaccine merits further study.

High burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in young children in rural western Kenya, 2010-2011.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in children <5 years of age. OBJECTIVES: To facilitate evaluation of the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction in western Kenya, we estimated baseline rates of rotavirus-associated hospitalization and mortality among children <5 years of age. METHODS: From January 2010 to December 2011, we collected demographic, clinical and laboratory data for children <5 years of age seeking care at the district hospital and 2 outpatient facilities within a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). Children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE), defined as ≥3 loose stools and/or ≥1 episode of unexplained vomiting followed by loose stool within a 24-hour period, were asked to provide a stool sample for rotavirus ELISA testing. Rates of rotavirus-associated hospitalization and mortality were estimated using time of residence in the HDSS to calculate person-years of observation. To estimate the rotavirus-associated mortality rate, we applied the percentage positive for rotavirus among AGE hospitalizations to verbal autopsy estimates of diarrhea deaths in the HDSS. RESULTS: There were 4991 hospitalizations of children <5 years of age; 1134 (23%) were for AGE and stool specimens were obtained from 790 (70%). Rotavirus was detected in 211 (27%) specimens. Among 4951 <5 outpatient sick visits, 608 (12%) were for AGE; 320 (51%) provided specimens and 62 (20%) were positive for rotavirus. Rotavirus AGE accounted for 501 <5 hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years of observation. Rotavirus-associated <5 mortality was 136 deaths per 100,000 person-years of observation. CONCLUSIONS: Continued surveillance of rotavirus AGE will provide timely data on the population-level impact of rotavirus vaccine following its likely introduction in 2014.

Use of population-based surveillance to determine the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis in an urban slum and a rural setting in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus gastroenteritis is a major cause of mortality among children <2 years of age. Disease burden data are important for introducing and sustaining new rotavirus vaccines in immunization programs. METHODS: We analyzed population-based infectious disease surveillance data from 2007 to 2010 from Kenyan sites in rural and urban slum areas. Stool specimens were collected from patients of all ages presenting to study clinics with diarrheal disease and tested for rotavirus by enzyme immunoassay. Incidence rates were adjusted using data on healthcare utilization (from biweekly home visits) and proportion of stools collected at study clinics from patients meeting case definitions. RESULTS: Rotavirus was detected in 285 (9.0%) of 3174 stools tested, including 122 (11.9%) from children <5 years of age and 162 (7.6%) from participants ≥5 years of age. Adjusted incidence rates for infants were 13,419 and 12,135 per 100,000 person-years of observation in rural and urban areas, respectively. Adjusted incidence rates were high in adults across age ranges. The rates suggest that annually, among children <5 years of age, there are >54,500 cases of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis in rural Nyanza Province and >16,750 cases in Nairobi urban slums. CONCLUSIONS: Community-based surveillance in urban and rural Kenya suggests that rotavirus plays an important role as a cause of acute gastroenteritis in adults, as well as in children. In addition to substantially preventing illness and complications from diarrheal disease in children, rotavirus infant immunization has the potential of indirectly preventing diarrheal disease in older children and adults, assuming children are the predominant sources of transmission.