Predicting Clinical Deterioration and Mortality at Differing Stages During Hospitalization: A Systematic Review of Risk Prediction Models in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

OBJECTIVE: To determine which risk prediction model best predicts clinical deterioration in children at different stages of hospital admission in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: For this systematic review, Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched, and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. The key search terms were "development or validation study with risk-prediction model" AND "deterioration or mortality" AND "age 0-18 years" AND "hospital-setting: emergency department (ED), pediatric ward (PW), or pediatric intensive care unit (PICU)" AND "low- and middle-income countries." The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used by two independent authors. Forest plots were used to plot area under the curve according to hospital setting. Risk prediction models used in two or more studies were included in a meta-analysis. RESULTS: We screened 9486 articles and selected 78 publications, including 67 unique predictive models comprising 1.5 million children. The best performing models individually were signs of inflammation in children that can kill (SICK) (ED), pediatric early warning signs resource limited settings (PEWS-RL) (PW), and Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) 3 as well as pediatric sequential organ failure assessment (pSOFA) (PICU). Best performing models after meta-analysis were SICK (ED), pSOFA and Pediatric Early Death Index for Africa (PEDIA)-immediate score (PW), and pediatric logistic organ dysfunction (PELOD) (PICU). There was a high risk of bias in all studies. CONCLUSIONS: We identified risk prediction models that best estimate deterioration, although these risk prediction models are not routinely used in low- and middle-income countries. Future studies should focus on large scale external validation with strict methodological criteria of multiple risk prediction models as well as study the barriers in the way of implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews: Prospero ID: CRD42021210489.

Outcome in Children Admitted to the First PICU in Malawi.

OBJECTIVES: Dedicated PICUs are slowly starting to emerge in sub-Saharan Africa. Establishing these units can be challenging as there is little data from this region to inform which populations and approaches should be prioritized. This study describes the characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to the first PICU in Malawi, with the aim to identify factors associated with increased mortality. DESIGN: Review of a prospectively constructed PICU database. Univariate analysis was used to assess associations between demographic, clinical and laboratory factors, and mortality. Univariate associations ( p < 0.1) for mortality were entered in two multivariable models. SETTING: A recently opened PICU in a public tertiary government hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. PATIENTS: Children admitted to PICU between August 1, 2017, and July 31, 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Of 531 included PICU admissions, 149 children died (28.1%). Mortality was higher in neonates (88/167; 52.7%) than older children (61/364; 16.8%; p ≤ 0.001). On univariate analysis, gastroschisis, trachea-esophageal fistula, and sepsis had higher PICU mortality, while Wilms tumor, other neoplasms, vocal cord papilloma, and foreign body aspiration had higher survival rates compared with other conditions. On multivariable analysis, neonatal age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.0; 95% CI, 2.0-8.3), decreased mental state (AOR, 5.8; 95 CI, 2.4-13.8), post-cardiac arrest (AOR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-8.0), severe hypotension (AOR, 6.3; 95% CI, 2.0-19.1), lactate greater than 5 mmol/L (AOR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.5-11.2), pH less than 7.2 (AOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.2-8.0), and platelets less than 150 × 10 9 /L (AOR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-5.2) were associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In the first PICU in Malawi, mortality was relatively high, especially in neonates. Surgical neonates and septic patients were identified as highly vulnerable, which stresses the importance of improvement of PICU care bundles for these groups. Several clinical and laboratory variables were associated with mortality in older children. In neonates, severe hypotension was the only clinical variable associated with increased mortality besides blood gas parameters. This stresses the importance of basic laboratory tests, especially in neonates. These data contribute to evidence-based approaches establishing and improving future PICUs in sub-Saharan Africa.

Etiology, Pathophysiology and Mortality of Shock in Children in Low (Middle) Income Countries: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: Shock is a life-threatening condition in children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), with several controversies. This systematic review summarizes the etiology, pathophysiology and mortality of shock in children in LMIC. METHODS: We searched for studies reporting on children with shock in LMIC in PubMed, Embase and through snowballing (up to 1 October 2019). Studies conducted in LMIC that reported on shock in children (1 month-18 years) were included. We excluded studies only containing data on neonates, cardiac surgery patients or iatrogenic causes. We presented prevalence data, pooled mortality estimates and conducted subgroup analyses per definition, region and disease. Etiology and pathophysiology data were systematically collected. RESULTS: We identified 959 studies and included 59 studies of which six primarily studied shock. Definitions used for shock were classified into five groups. Prevalence of shock ranged from 1.5% in a pediatric hospital population to 44.3% in critically ill children. Pooled mortality estimates ranged between 3.9-33.3% for the five definition groups. Important etiologies included gastroenteritis, sepsis, malaria and severe anemia, which often coincided. The pathophysiology was poorly studied but suggests that in addition to hypovolemia, dissociative and cardiogenic shock are common in LMIC. CONCLUSIONS: Shock is associated with high mortality in hospitalized children in LMIC. Despite the importance few studies investigated shock and as a consequence limited data on etiology and pathophysiology of shock is available. A uniform bedside definition may help boost future studies unravelling shock etiology and pathophysiology in LMIC.

Neurologic sequelae of severe chikungunya infection in the first 6 months of life: a prospective cohort study 24-months post-infection.

BACKGROUND: Perinatally chikungunya infected neonates have been reported to have high rates of post-infection neurologic sequelae, mainly cognitive problems. In older children and adults chikungunya does not appear to have sequelae, but data on postnatally infected infants are lacking. METHODS: We performed a prospective, non-controlled, observational study of infants infected before the age of 6 months with a severe chikungunya infection during the 2014-2015 epidemic in Curaçao, Dutch Antilles. Two years post-infection cognitive and motor - (BSID-III) and social emotional assessments (ITSEA) were performed. RESULTS: Of twenty-two infected infants, two died and two were lost to follow up. Eighteen children were seen at follow-up and included in the current study. Of these, 13 (72%) had abnormal scores on the BSID-III (cognitive/motor) or ITSEA. CONCLUSION: In the first study aimed at postnatally infected infants, using an uncontrolled design, we observed a very high percentage of developmental problems. Further studies are needed to assess causality, however until these data are available preventive measure during outbreaks should also include young infants. Those that have been infected in early infancy should receive follow up.

High frequency and diversity of parechovirus A in a cohort of Malawian children.

Parechoviruses (PeVs) are highly prevalent viruses worldwide. Over the last decades, several studies have been published on PeV epidemiology in Europe, Asia and North America, while information on other continents is lacking. The aim of this study was to describe PeV circulation in a cohort of children in Malawi, Africa. A total of 749 stool samples obtained from Malawian children aged 6 to 60 months were tested for the presence of PeV by real-time PCR. We performed typing by phylogenetic and Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST) analysis. PeV was found in 57% of stool samples. Age was significantly associated with PeV positivity (p = 0.01). Typing by phylogenetic analysis resulted in 15 different types, while BLAST typing resulted in 14 different types and several indeterminate strains. In total, six strains showed inconsistencies in typing between the two methods. One strain, P02-4058, remained untypable by all methods, but appeared to belong to the recently reclassified PeV-A19 genotype. PeV-A1, -A2 and -A3 were the most prevalent types (26.8%, 13.8% and 9.8%, respectively). Both the prevalence and genetic diversity found in our study were remarkably high. Our data provide an important contribution to the scarce data available on PeV epidemiology in Africa.

Bacterial co-infection of the respiratory tract in ventilated children with bronchiolitis; a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Viral bronchiolitis is the most common cause of respiratory failure requiring invasive ventilation in young children. Bacterial co-infections may complicate and prolong paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) stay. Data on prevalence, type of pathogens and its association with disease severity are limited though. These data are especially important as bacterial co-infections may be treated using antibiotics and could reduce disease severity and duration of PICU stay. We investigated prevalence of bacterial co-infection and its association with disease severity and PICU stay. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of the prevalence and type of bacterial co-infections in ventilated children performed in a 14-bed tertiary care PICU in The Netherlands. Children less than 2 years of age admitted between December 2006 and November 2014 with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis and requiring invasive mechanical ventilation were included. Tracheal aspirates (TA) and broncho-alveolar lavages (BAL) were cultured and scored based on the quantity of bacteria colony forming units (CFU) as: co-infection (TA > 10^5/BAL > 10^4 CFU), low bacterial growth (TA < 10^5/BAL < 10^4 CFU), or negative (no growth). Duration of mechanical ventilation and PICU stay were collected using medical records and compared against the presence of co-infection using univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Of 167 included children 63 (37.7%) had a bacterial co-infection and 67 (40.1%) low bacterial growth. Co-infections occurred within 48 h from intubation in 52 out 63 (82.5%) co-infections. H.influenza (40.0%), S.pneumoniae (27.1%), M.catarrhalis (22.4%), and S.aureus (7.1%) were the most common pathogens. PICU stay and mechanical ventilation lasted longer in children with co-infections than children with negative cultures (9.1 vs 7.7 days, p = 0.04 and 8.1vs 6.5 days, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In this large study, bacterial co-infections occurred in more than a third of children requiring invasive ventilation for bronchiolitis and were associated with longer PICU stay and mechanical ventilation. These findings support a clinical trial of antibiotics to test whether antibiotics can reduce duration of PICU stay.

High frequency of Polio-like Enterovirus C strains with differential clustering of CVA-13 and EV-C99 subgenotypes in a cohort of Malawian children.

Enteroviruses (EVs) are among the most commonly detected viruses infecting humans worldwide. Although the prevalence of EVs is widely studied, the status of EV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa remains largely unknown. The objective of our present study was therefore to increase our knowledge on EV circulation in sub-Saharan Africa. We obtained 749 fecal samples from a cross-sectional study conducted on Malawian children aged 6 to 60 months. We tested the samples for the presence of EVs using real time PCR, and typed the positive samples based on partial viral protein 1 (VP1) sequences. A large proportion of the samples was EV positive (89.9%). 12.9% of the typed samples belonged to EV species A (EV-A), 48.6% to species B (EV-B) and 38.5% to species C (EV-C). More than half of the EV-C strains (53%) belonged to subgroup C containing, among others, Poliovirus (PV) 1-3. The serotype most frequently isolated in our study was CVA-13, followed by EV-C99. The strains of CVA-13 showed a vast genetic diversity, possibly representing a new cluster, 'F'. The majority of the EV-C99 strains grouped together as cluster B. In conclusion, this study showed a vast circulation of EVs among Malawian children, with an EV prevalence of 89.9%. Identification of prevalences for species EV-C comparable to our study (38.5%) have only previously been reported in sub-Saharan Africa, and EV-C is rarely found outside of this region. The data found in this study are an important contribution to our current knowledge of EV epidemiology within sub-Saharan Africa.

Neutrophil subset responses in infants with severe viral respiratory infection.

Neutrophils are the predominant inflammatory cells recruited to the respiratory tract as part of the innate immune response to viral infections. Recent reports indicate the existence of distinct functional neutrophil subsets in the circulatory compartment of adults, following severe inflammatory conditions. Here, we evaluated the occurrence of neutrophil subsets in blood and broncho-alveolar lavage fluid during severe viral respiratory infection in infants based on CD16/CD62L expression. We show that during the course of severe respiratory infection infants may develop four heterogeneous neutrophil subsets in blood (mature, immature, progenitor, and suppressive neutrophils), each with distinct activation states. However, while isolated viral respiratory infection was characterized by a relative absence of suppressive neutrophils in both blood and lungs, only patients with bacterial co-infection were shown to produce suppressive neutrophils. These data suggest the occurrence of distinct and unique neutrophil subset responses during severe viral and (secondary) bacterial respiratory infection in infants.

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance results in virological failure and accumulation of additional resistance mutations in Ugandan children.

Background: Pretreatment HIV drug resistance (PDR) can impair virological response to ART, jeopardizing effective treatment for children. Methods: Children aged ≤12 years initiated first-line ART in Uganda during 2010-11. Baseline and 6 monthly viral load (VL) and genotypic resistance testing if VL >1000 copies/mL was done. The 2015 IAS-USA mutation list and Stanford algorithm were used to score drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and susceptibility. Virological failure (VF) was defined as two consecutive VLs >1000 copies/mL or death after 6 months of ART. Factors associated with failure and acquired drug resistance (ADR) were assessed in a logistic regression analysis. Results: Among 317 children enrolled, median age was 4.9 years and 91.5% received NNRTI-based regimens. PDR was detected in 47/278 (16.9%) children, of whom 22 (7.9%) had resistance against their first-line regimen and were therefore on a partially active regimen. After 24 months of follow-up, 92/287 (32.1%) had experienced VF. Children with PDR had a higher risk of VF (OR 15.25, P < 0.001) and ADR (OR 3.58, P = 0.01). Conclusions: Almost one-third of children experienced VF within 24 months of NNRTI-based first-line treatment. PDR was the strongest predictor of VF and ADR, and therefore presents a major threat in children. There is a need for ART regimens that maximize effectiveness of first-line therapy for long-term treatment success in the presence of PDR or incorporation of routine VL testing to detect VF and change treatment in time, in order to prevent clinical deterioration and accumulation of additional drug resistance. Children ≤3 years should be initiated on a PI-based regimen as per WHO guidelines.

Early Fluid Overload Prolongs Mechanical Ventilation in Children With Viral-Lower Respiratory Tract Disease.

OBJECTIVES: Viral-lower respiratory tract disease is common in young children worldwide and is associated with high morbidity. Acute respiratory failure due to viral-lower respiratory tract disease necessitates PICU admission for mechanical ventilation. In critically ill patients in PICU settings, early fluid overload is common and associated with adverse outcomes such as prolonged mechanical ventilation and increased mortality. It is unclear, however, if this also applies to young children with viral-lower respiratory tract disease induced acute respiratory failure. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relation of early fluid overload with adverse outcomes in mechanically ventilated children with viral-lower respiratory tract disease in a retrospective dataset. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Single, tertiary referral PICU. PATIENTS: One hundred thirty-five children (< 2 yr old) with viral-lower respiratory tract disease requiring mechanical ventilation admitted to the PICU of the Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam between 2008 and 2014. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The cumulative fluid balance on day 3 of mechanical ventilation was compared against duration of mechanical ventilation (primary outcome) and daily mean oxygen saturation index (secondary outcome), using uni- and multivariable linear regression. In 132 children, the mean cumulative fluid balance on day 3 was + 97.9 (49.2) mL/kg. Higher cumulative fluid balance on day 3 was associated with a longer duration of mechanical ventilation in multivariable linear regression (ß = 0.166; p = 0.048). No association was found between the fluid status and oxygen saturation index during the period of mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: Early fluid overload is an independent predictor of prolonged mechanical ventilation in young children with viral-lower respiratory tract disease. This study suggests that avoiding early fluid overload is a potential target to reduce duration of mechanical ventilation in these children. Prospective testing in a clinical trial is warranted to support this hypothesis.

Second-line HIV Treatment in Ugandan Children: Favorable Outcomes and No Protease Inhibitor Resistance.

Background: Data on pediatric second-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes are scarce, but essential to evaluate second-line and design third-line regimens. Methods: Children ≤12 years switching to second-line ART containing a protease inhibitor (PI) in Uganda were followed for 24 months. Viral load (VL) was determined at switch to second-line and every 6 months thereafter; genotypic resistance testing was done if VL ≥ 1000 cps/ml. Results: 60 children were included in the analysis; all had ≥1 drug resistance mutations at switch. Twelve children (20.0%) experienced treatment failure; no PI mutations were detected. Sub-optimal adherence and underweight were associated with treatment failure. Conclusions: No PI mutations occurred in children failing second-line ART, which is reassuring as pediatric third-line is not routinely available in these settings. Poor adherence rather than HIV drug resistance is likely to be the main mechanism for treatment failure and should receive close attention in children on second-line ART.

Suboptimal Viral Suppression Rates Among HIV-Infected Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The 90-90-90 goal to achieve viral suppression in 90% of all human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is especially challenging in children. Global estimates of viral suppression among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are lacking. METHODS: We searched for randomized controlled trials and observational studies and analyzed viral suppression rates among children started on ART during 3 time periods: early (2000-2005), intermediate (2006-2009), and current (2010 and later), using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Seventy-two studies, reporting on 51 347 children (aged <18 years), were included. After 12 months on first-line ART, viral suppression was achieved by 64.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 57.5-71.8) in the early, 74.2% (95% CI, 70.2-78.2) in the intermediate, and 72.7% (95% 62.6-82.8) in the current time period. Rates were similar after 6 and 24 months of ART. Using an intention-to-treat analysis, 42.7% (95% CI, 33.7-51.7) in the early, 45.7% (95% CI, 33.2-58.3) in the intermediate, and 62.5% (95% CI, 53.3-72.6) in the current period were suppressed. Long-term follow-up data were scarce. CONCLUSIONS: Viral suppression rates among children on ART in LMICs were low and considerably poorer than those previously found in adults in LMICs and children in high-income countries. Little progress has been made in improving viral suppression rates over the past years. Without increased efforts to improve pediatric HIV treatment, the 90-90-90 goal for children in LMIC will not be reached.

Accumulation of HIV-1 drug resistance after continued virological failure on first-line ART in adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Limited availability of viral load (VL) monitoring in HIV treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa can delay switching to second-line ART, leading to the accumulation of drug resistance mutations (DRMs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the accumulation of resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors after continued virological failure on first-line ART, among adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: HIV-1-positive adults and children on an NNRTI-based first-line ART were included. Retrospective VL and, if VL ≥1000 copies/mL, pol genotypic testing was performed. Among participants with continued virological failure (≥2 VL ≥1000 copies/mL), drug resistance was evaluated. RESULTS: At first virological failure, DRM(s) were detected in 87% of participants: K103N (38.7%), G190A (21.8%), Y181C (20.2%), V106M (8.4%), K101E (8.4%), any E138 (7.6%) and V108I (7.6%) associated with NNRTIs, and M184V (69.7%), any thymidine analogue mutation (9.2%), K65R (5.9%) and K70R (5.0%) associated with NRTIs. New DRMs accumulated with an average rate of 1.45 (SD 2.07) DRM per year; 0.62 (SD 1.11) NNRTI DRMs and 0.84 (SD 1.38) NRTI DRMs per year, respectively. The predicted susceptibility declined significantly after continued virological failure for all reverse transcriptase inhibitors (all P < 0.001). Acquired drug resistance patterns were similar in adults and children. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of drug resistance after virological failure on first-line ART are similar in adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa. Improved VL monitoring to prevent accumulation of mutations, and new drug classes to construct fully active regimens, are required.

An Evaluation of Alternative Markers to Guide Initiation of Anti-retroviral Therapy in HIV-Infected Children in Settings where CD4 Assays are not Available.

OBJECTIVES: In settings where CD4 testing is not available, alternative markers to start paediatric anti-retroviral therapy (ART) could be used. A comprehensive evaluation of these markers has not been performed. METHODS: Prospective cross-sectional study of HIV-infected Malawian children not eligible for ART based on clinical criteria. Associations between CD4 and alternative markers [haemoglobin, total lymphocyte count (TLC), serum albumin, thrombocytes and growth parameters] were analysed, and accuracy of existing and new cut-offs were evaluated. RESULTS: In all, 417 children were enrolled. Of 261 children aged ≥5 years, 155 (59%) qualified to start ART using CD4. In this group, only TLC was associated with CD4 (p < 0.001). Sensitivity for TLC was 21% (95% CI: 15-29%), using World Health Organization cut-offs. Improved cut-offs increased sensitivity to 73% (95% CI: 65-80%), specificity 62% (95% CI: 52-72%). CONCLUSION: Clinical staging alone is an unreliable strategy to start ART in children. TLC is the only alternative marker for CD4, cut-offs need to be revised though.

The interaction between malaria and human immunodeficiency virus infection in severely anaemic Malawian children: a prospective longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: Malaria and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are co-prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa and cause severe anaemia in children. Interactions between these infections occur in adults, although these are less clear in children. The aim of study was to determine their interaction in a cohort of severely anaemic children. METHODS: Severely anaemic Malawian children were enrolled, tested for HIV and malaria, transfused and followed for 18 months for malaria incidence. Antiretrovirals were not widely available in Malawi during the study period. RESULTS: Of 381 children (haemoglobin <5 g/dl), 357 consented for HIV testing, 12.6% were HIV-infected, and 59.5% had malaria parasitaemia. At enrolment, HIV-infected children had similar malaria parasitaemia prevalence (59.1% vs. 58.7%; P = 0.96) and parasite density (geometric mean [parasites/µl] 6903 vs. 12417; P = 0.18) as HIV-negative children. There were no differences in mean CD4%, or prevalence of severe immunosuppression, between those with and without malaria parasitaemia. Plasma viral load correlated negatively with log parasitaemia (r = -0.78; P = 0.01). During follow-up, HIV-infected children did not experience more frequent parasitaemias or symptomatic malaria episodes. Adjusted risk estimates (95% CI) for malaria parasitaemia in HIV-infected children at 6 and 18 months follow-up were 0.39 (0.13-1.14) and 0.40 (0.11-1.51), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Severely anaemic HIV-infected children showed no increased susceptibility to asymptomatic or symptomatic malaria during or following their anaemic episode, although all experienced lower parasite prevalence during follow-up. This contrasts with data in adults and may relate to the malaria immunity of young children which is insufficiently developed to be impaired by HIV. The negative correlation between viral load and malaria parasitaemia remains unexplained.

Prevalence, mortality, and aetiology of paediatric shock in a tertiary hospital in Malawi: A cohort study.

Shock is considered one of the most important mechanisms of critical illness in children. However, data on paediatric shock in sub-Saharan Africa is limited, which constrains development of effective treatment strategies. We aimed to describe the prevalence, mortality, and aetiology of paediatric shock in a tertiary hospital in Malawi. Children aged two months to 16 years presenting with shock (FEAST criteria; respiratory distress and/or impaired consciousness, and at least one sign of impaired circulation; capillary refill>3 seconds, cold extremities, weak pulse, or severe tachycardia) to the emergency department were included and followed-up prospectively using routinely collected data between February 2019 and January 2020. Prevalence, mortality and aetiology of shock were reported for both the FEAST criteria and World Health Organization (WHO) definition. The association between aetiology and mortality was assessed with univariable analysis. Of all screened admissions (N = 12,840), 679 (5.3%) children presented with shock using FEAST criteria and the mortality was 79/663 (11.9%). WHO-defined shock applied to 16/12,840 (0.1%) and the mortality was 9/15 (60.0%). Main diagnoses were viral/reactive airway diseases (40.4%), severe pneumonia (14.3%), gastroenteritis (11.3%) and presumed sepsis (5.7%). Children diagnosed with presumed sepsis and gastroenteritis had the highest odds of dying (OR 11.3; 95%-CI:4.9-25.8 and OR 4.4; 95%-CI:2.4-8.2). Considering the high mortality, prevalence of paediatric shock (FEAST and WHO definitions) in Malawi is high. Sepsis and gastroenteritis are diagnoses associated with poor outcome in these children. Consensus on a clinical meaningful definition for paediatric shock is essential to boost future studies.

Identifying critically ill children in Malawi: A modified qSOFA score for low-resource settings.

In low-resource settings, a reliable bedside score for timely identification of children at risk of dying, could help focus resources and improve survival. The rapid bedside Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA) uses clinical parameters only and performed well in United Kingdom cohorts. A similarly quick clinical assessment-only score has however not yet been developed for paediatric populations in sub-Saharan Africa. In a development cohort of critically ill children in Malawi, we calculated the LqSOFA scores using age-adjusted heart rate and respiratory rate, capillary refill time and Blantyre Coma Scale, and evaluated its prognostic performance for mortality. An improved score, the Blantyre qSOFA (BqSOFA), was developed (omitting heart rate, adjusting respiratory rate cut-off values and adding pallor), subsequently validated in a second cohort of Malawian children, and compared with an existing score (FEAST-PET). Prognostic performance for mortality was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Mortality was 15.4% in the development (N = 493) and 22.0% in the validation cohort (N = 377). In the development cohort, discriminative ability (AUC) of the LqSOFA to predict mortality was 0.68 (95%-CI: 0.60-0.76). The BqSOFA and FEAST-PET yielded AUCs of 0.84 (95%-CI:0.79-0.89) and 0.83 (95%-CI:0.77-0.89) in the development cohort, and 0.74 (95%-CI:0.68-0.79) and 0.76 (95%-CI:0.70-0.82) in the validation cohort, respectively. We developed a simple prognostic score for Malawian children based on four clinical parameters which performed as well as a more complex score. The BqSOFA might be used to promptly identify critically ill children at risk of dying and prioritize hospital care in low-resource settings.

Severe anemia in Malawian children.

BACKGROUND: Severe anemia is a major cause of sickness and death in African children, yet the causes of anemia in this population have been inadequately studied. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of 381 preschool children with severe anemia (hemoglobin concentration, <5.0 g per deciliter) and 757 preschool children without severe anemia in urban and rural settings in Malawi. Causal factors previously associated with severe anemia were studied. The data were examined by multivariate analysis and structural equation modeling. RESULTS: Bacteremia (adjusted odds ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6 to 10.9), malaria (adjusted odds ratio, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 3.3), hookworm (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.0 to 11.8), human immunodeficiency virus infection (adjusted odds ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.8), the G6PD(-202/-376) genetic disorder (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 4.4), vitamin A deficiency (adjusted odds ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to 5.8), and vitamin B12 deficiency (adjusted odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.6) were associated with severe anemia. Folate deficiency, sickle cell disease, and laboratory signs of an abnormal inflammatory response were uncommon. Iron deficiency was not prevalent in case patients (adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.60) and was negatively associated with bacteremia. Malaria was associated with severe anemia in the urban site (with seasonal transmission) but not in the rural site (where malaria was holoendemic). Seventy-six percent of hookworm infections were found in children under 2 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: There are multiple causes of severe anemia in Malawian preschool children, but folate and iron deficiencies are not prominent among them. Even in the presence of malaria parasites, additional or alternative causes of severe anemia should be considered.

Severe anaemia complicating HIV in Malawi; Multiple co-existing aetiologies are associated with high mortality.

BACKGROUND: Severe anaemia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults living in resource-limited countries. Comprehensive data on the aetiology are lacking but are needed to improve outcomes. METHODS: HIV-infected adults with severe (haemoglobin ≤70g/l) or very severe anaemia (haemoglobin ≤ 50 g/l) were recruited at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi. Fifteen potential causes and associations with anaemia severity and mortality were explored. RESULTS: 199 patients were enrolled: 42.2% had very severe anaemia and 45.7% were on ART. More than two potential causes for anaemia were present in 94% of the patients including iron deficiency (55.3%), underweight (BMI<20: 49.7%), TB infection (41.2%) and unsuppressed HIV infection (viral load >1000 copies/ml) (73.9%). EBV/CMV co-infection (16.5%) was associated with very severe anaemia (OR 2.8 95% CI 1.1-6.9). Overall mortality was high (53%; 100/199) with a median time to death of 17.5 days (IQR 6-55) days. Death was associated with folate deficiency (HR 2.2; 95% CI 1.2-3.8) and end stage renal disease (HR 3.2; 95% CI 1.6-6.2). CONCLUSION: Mortality among severely anaemic HIV-infected adults is strikingly high. Clinicians should be aware of the urgent need for a multifactorial approach including starting or optimising HIV treatment, considering TB treatment, nutritional support and optimising renal management.