The Clade Replacement Theory: a framework to study age-dependent extinction.

There is no scientific consensus about whether and how species' evolutionary age, or the elapsed time since their origination, might affect their probability of going extinct. Different age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns have been proposed in theoretical and empirical studies, while the existence of a consistent and universal pattern across the tree of life remains debated. If evolutionary age predicts species extinction probability, then the study of ADE should comprise the elapsed time and the ecological process acting on species from their origin to their extinction or to the present for extant species. Additionally, given that closely related species share traits associated with fitness, evolutionary proximity could generate similar ADE patterns. Considering the historical context and extinction selectivity based on evolutionary relatedness, we build on previous theoretical work to formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) as a framework that considers the ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction probability to produce testable predictions on ADE patterns. CRT's domain is the diversification dynamics of two or more clades competing for environmental space throughout time, and its propositions or derived hypotheses are as follows: (i) incumbency effects by an early arriving clade that limit the colonization and the diversification of a younger clade leading to a negative ADE scenario (younger species more prone to extinction than older ones) and (ii) an ecological shift triggered by an environmental change that imposes a new selective regime over the environmental space and leads to a positive ADE scenario (extinction probability increasing with age). From these propositions, we developed the prediction that the ADE scenario would be defined by whether an ecological shift happens or not. We discuss how the CRT could be tested with empirical data and provide examples where it could be applied. We hope this article will provide a common ground to unify results from different fields and foster new empirical tests of the mechanisms derived here while providing insights into CRT theoretical structuration.

The neural correlates of value representation: From single items to bundles.

One of the core questions in Neuro-economics is to determine where value is represented. To date, most studies have focused on simple options and identified the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) as the common value region. We report the findings of an fMRI study in which we asked participants to make pairwise comparisons involving options of varying complexity: single items (Control condition), bundles made of the same two single items (Scaling condition) and bundles made of two different single items (Bundling condition). We construct a measure of choice consistency to capture how coherent the choices of a participant are with one another. We also record brain activity while participants make these choices. We find that a common core of regions involving the left VMPFC, the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), regions associated with complex visual processing and the left cerebellum track value across all conditions. Also, regions in the DLPFC, the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) and the cerebellum are differentially recruited across conditions. Last, variations in activity in VMPFC and DLPFC value-tracking regions are associated with variations in choice consistency. This suggests that value based decision-making recruits a core set of regions as well as specific regions based on task demands. Further, correlations between consistency and the magnitude of signal change with lateral portions of the PFC suggest the possibility that activity in these regions may play a causal role in decision quality.

Disproportionate extinction of South American mammals drove the asymmetry of the Great American Biotic Interchange.

The interchange between the previously disconnected faunas of North and South America was a massive experiment in biological invasion. A major gap in our understanding of this invasion is why there was a drastic increase in the proportion of mammals of North American origin found in South America. Four nonmutually exclusive mechanisms may explain this asymmetry: 1) Higher dispersal rate of North American mammals toward the south, 2) higher origination of North American immigrants in South America, 3) higher extinction of mammals with South American origin, and 4) similar dispersal rate but a larger pool of native taxa in North versus South America. We test among these mechanisms by analyzing ∼20,000 fossil occurrences with Bayesian methods to infer dispersal and diversification rates and taxonomic selectivity of immigrants. We find no differences in the dispersal and origination rates of immigrants. In contrast, native South American mammals show higher extinction. We also find that two clades with North American origin (Carnivora and Artiodactyla) had significantly more immigrants in South America than other clades. Altogether, the asymmetry of the interchange was not due to higher origination of immigrants in South America as previously suggested, but resulted from higher extinction of native taxa in southern South America. These results from one of the greatest biological invasions highlight how biogeographic processes and biotic interactions can shape continental diversity.

Pleistocene South American native ungulates (Notoungulata and Litopterna) of the historical Roth collections in Switzerland, from the Pampean Region of Argentina.

The fossil collections made by early explorers in South America have been fundamental to reveal the past diversity of extinct mammals and unravel their evolutionary history. One important early explorer in South America was the Swiss-Argentine palaeontologist Kaspar Jacob Roth, known as Santiago Roth (1850, Herisau, Switzerland-1924, Buenos Aires, Argentina), who made significant collections of fossil mammals that are housed in museums in Europe and Argentina. The important collections of Roth in Switzerland include iconic Pleistocene megafauna from the Pampean Region (Argentina). The palaeontological significance of the Pampean Region relies on its abundant record of fossil vertebrates that documents diversity dynamics and paleoenvironmental change in southern South America, serving as the basis for the South American biostratigraphical scale of the late Neogene and Quaternary. The South American native ungulates (SANUs) were hoofed placental mammals that radiated in South America. The clades Notoungulata and Litopterna include, among others, the last representatives of SANUs megafauna in the continent. We revise and describe for the first time the SANUs specimens from the Pampean Region of the Roth collections in Switzerland. The collections include two species of notoungulates (Toxodon cf. T. platensis and Mesotherium cristatum) and one litoptern species (Macrauchenia patachonica). The occurrences are restricted to the early and middle Pleistocene (pre-Lujanian Stages/Ages). Although the SANUs diversity in the Roth collections is low in comparison with other groups (e.g., xenarthrans), some of the specimens are very complete, including skulls and postcranial remains. The completeness of the Ma. patachonica material allows an update and reinterpretation of some of the details of the dentition and the postcranial skeleton of this iconic species. In addition to its historical importance, the SANU specimens from the Roth collections provide important information to study the paleobiology and evolution of South American megafauna and evaluate hypotheses about their extinction in the continent.

Las colecciones de fósiles realizadas por los primeros exploradores en América del Sur han sido fundamentales para revelar la diversidad pasada de los mamíferos sudamericanos y desentrañar su historia evolutiva. Un importante explorador en América del Sur fue el paleontólogo suizo-argentino Kaspar Jacob Roth, conocido como Santiago Roth (1850, Herisau, Suiza-1924, Buenos Aires, Argentina), quien realizó importantes colecciones de mamíferos fósiles que se encuentran en museos de Europa y Argentina. Las colecciones de Roth en Suiza incluyen la icónica megafauna del Pleistoceno de la Región Pampeana (Argentina). La importancia paleontológica de la Región Pampeana se basa en su abundante registro de vertebrados fósiles que documenta la diversidad y el cambio paleoambiental en el sur de Sudamérica, sirviendo como base para la escala bioestratigráfica sudamericana del Neógeno tardío y Cuaternario. Los ungulados nativos sudamericanos (SANUs, por sus siglas en inglés) eran mamíferos placentarios con pezuñas que radiaron en Sudamérica. Los clados Notoungulata y Litopterna incluyen, entre otros, los últimos representantes de la megafauna de SANUs en el continente. En este trabajo, revisamos y describimos por primera vez los SANUs de la Región Pampeana de las colecciónes de Roth en Suiza. Las colecciónes incluyen dos especies de notungulados (Toxodon cf. T. platensis y Mesotherium cristatum) y una especie de litopterna (Macrauchenia patachonica). Las ocurrencias están restringidas al Pleistoceno temprano y medio (Pisos/Edades anteriores al Lujanense). Aunque la diversidad de SANU en las colecciónes Roth es baja en comparación con otros grupos (por ejemplo, xenarthros), algunos de los especímenes son muy completos, e incluyen cráneos y restos poscraneales. Lo completo del material de Ma. patachonica permite una actualización y reinterpretación de algunos de los detalles de la dentición y el esqueleto poscraneal de esta icónica especie. Además de su importancia histórica, los SANUs de la colección Roth brindan información importante para estudiar la paleobiología y evolución de la megafauna sudamericana y evaluar hipótesis sobre su extinción en el continente.

Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon.

Amazonian environments are being degraded by modern industrial and agricultural activities at a pace far above anything previously known, imperiling its vast biodiversity reserves and globally important ecosystem services. The most substantial threats come from regional deforestation, because of export market demands, and global climate change. The Amazon is currently perched to transition rapidly from a largely forested to a nonforested landscape. These changes are happening much too rapidly for Amazonian species, peoples, and ecosystems to respond adaptively. Policies to prevent the worst outcomes are known and must be enacted immediately. We now need political will and leadership to act on this information. To fail the Amazon is to fail the biosphere, and we fail to act at our peril.

Madagascar's extraordinary biodiversity: Evolution, distribution, and use.

Madagascar's biota is hyperdiverse and includes exceptional levels of endemicity. We review the current state of knowledge on Madagascar's past and current terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by compiling and presenting comprehensive data on species diversity, endemism, and rates of species description and human uses, in addition to presenting an updated and simplified map of vegetation types. We report a substantial increase of records and species new to science in recent years; however, the diversity and evolution of many groups remain practically unknown (e.g., fungi and most invertebrates). Digitization efforts are increasing the resolution of species richness patterns and we highlight the crucial role of field- and collections-based research for advancing biodiversity knowledge and identifying gaps in our understanding, particularly as species richness corresponds closely to collection effort. Phylogenetic diversity patterns mirror that of species richness and endemism in most of the analyzed groups. We highlight humid forests as centers of diversity and endemism because of their role as refugia and centers of recent and rapid radiations. However, the distinct endemism of other areas, such as the grassland-woodland mosaic of the Central Highlands and the spiny forest of the southwest, is also biologically important despite lower species richness. The documented uses of Malagasy biodiversity are manifold, with much potential for the uncovering of new useful traits for food, medicine, and climate mitigation. The data presented here showcase Madagascar as a unique "living laboratory" for our understanding of evolution and the complex interactions between people and nature. The gathering and analysis of biodiversity data must continue and accelerate if we are to fully understand and safeguard this unique subset of Earth's biodiversity.

Madagascar's extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities.

Madagascar's unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar's terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevant threats, ex situ collections and programs, and the coverage and comprehensiveness of protected areas. The existing terrestrial protected area network in Madagascar covers 10.4% of its land area and includes at least part of the range of the majority of described native species of vertebrates with known distributions (97.1% of freshwater fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals combined) and plants (67.7%). The overall figures are higher for threatened species (97.7% of threatened vertebrates and 79.6% of threatened plants occurring within at least one protected area). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments and Bayesian neural network analyses for plants identify overexploitation of biological resources and unsustainable agriculture as the most prominent threats to biodiversity. We highlight five opportunities for action at multiple levels to ensure that conservation and ecological restoration objectives, programs, and activities take account of complex underlying and interacting factors and produce tangible benefits for the biodiversity and people of Madagascar.

A Pliocene-Pleistocene continental biota from Venezuela.

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in the Neotropics is poorly understood despite the major climatic changes that occurred at the onset of the Quaternary. The San Gregorio Formation, the younger unit of the Urumaco Sequence, preserves a fauna that documents this critical transition. We report stingrays, freshwater bony fishes, amphibians, crocodiles, lizards, snakes, aquatic and terrestrial turtles, and mammals. A total of 49 taxa are reported from the Vergel Member (late Pliocene) and nine taxa from the Cocuiza Member (Early Pleistocene), with 28 and 18 taxa reported for the first time in the Urumaco sequence and Venezuela, respectively. Our findings include the first fossil record of the freshwater fishes Megaleporinus, Schizodon, Amblydoras, Scorpiodoras, and the pipesnake Anilius scytale, all from Pliocene strata. The late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene ages proposed here for the Vergel and Cocuiza members, respectively, are supported by their stratigraphic position, palynology, nannoplankton, and 86Sr/88Sr dating. Mammals from the Vergel Member are associated with the first major pulse of the Great American Biotic Interchange. In contrast to the dry conditions prevailing today, the San Gregorio Formation documents mixed open grassland/forest areas surrounding permanent freshwater systems, following the isolation of the northern South American basin from western Amazonia. These findings support the hypothesis that range contraction of many taxa to their current distribution in northern South America occurred rapidly during at least the last 1.5 million years.

A Neuroeconomic Theory of Mental Time Travel.

We propose a theoretical model that places attention at the center of mental time travel (MTT) ability. This theory predicts that attention promotes a memory-based process that encodes memories of unexpected events, facilitates accurate recollection of information of such events during MTT, and optimizes subsequent decision-making. This process coexists with a habitual process that governs all other events and treats them equally. Our theory demonstrates that the memory-based process is useful when the environment features novel experiences that are likely to be relevant in future decision-making, hence worth remembering accurately. By contrast, the habitual process is optimal in environments that either do not change significantly, or have a small chance of being repeated in the future. This may explain why the ability to mentally travel in time has developed differently in humans than in other species. Implications are discussed in the context of decision-making.

The determinants of strategic thinking in preschool children.

Strategic thinking is an essential component of rational decision-making. However, little is known about its developmental aspects. Here we show that preschoolers can reason strategically in simple individual decisions that require anticipating a limited number of future decisions. This ability is transferred only partially to solve more complex individual decision problems and to efficiently interact with others. This ability is also more developed among older children in the classroom. Results indicate that while preschoolers potentially have the capacity to think strategically, it does not always translate into the ability to behave strategically.

Shark and ray diversity in the Tropical America (Neotropics)-an examination of environmental and historical factors affecting diversity.

We present the first comprehensive review of the present and past shark and ray diversity in marine waters of Tropical America, examining the patterns of distribution in the Eastern Central Pacific (EP) and Western Central Atlantic (WA) realms. We identified the major regions of diversity and of endemism, and explored the relations to physical variables. We found a strong relationship between shark and ray diversity with area and coastal length of each province. The Tropical Northwestern Atlantic Province is characterized by high diversity and greater occurrence of endemic species, suggesting this province as the hotspot of sharks and rays in Tropical America. The historical background for the current biogeography is explored and analyzed. Referential data from 67 geological units in 17 countries, from both shallow and deep-water habitats, across five time-clusters from the Miocene to the Pleistocene were studied. New data include 20 new assemblages from six countries. The most diverse Neogene and extant groups of shark and ray are Carcharhiniformes and Myliobatiformes, respectively. The differentiation between Pacific and Atlantic faunas goes to at least the middle Miocene, probably related with the increasing closure of the Central American Seaway acting as a barrier. The highest faunal similarity between the assemblages from the EP and the WA at the early Miocene could be related to the lack of a barrier back then, but increased sampling is needed to substantiate this hypothesis.

Stress Induces Contextual Blindness in Lotteries and Coordination Games.

In this paper, we study how stress affects risk taking in three tasks: individual lotteries, Stag Hunt (coordination) games, and Hawk-Dove (anti-coordination) games. Both control and stressed subjects take more risks in all three tasks when the value of the safe option is decreased and in lotteries when the expected gain is increased. Also, subjects take longer to take decisions when stakes are high, when the safe option is less attractive and in the conceptually more difficult Hawk-Dove game. Stress (weakly) increases reaction times in those cases. Finally, our main result is that the behavior of stressed subjects in lotteries, Stag Hunt and Hawk-Dove are all highly predictive of each other (p-value < 0.001 for all three pairwise correlations). Such strong relationship is not present in our control group. Our results illustrate a "contextual blindness" caused by stress. The mathematical and behavioral tensions of Stag Hunt and Hawk-Dove games are axiomatically different, and we should expect different behavior across these games, and also with respect to the individual task. A possible explanation for the highly significant connection across tasks in the stress condition is that stressed subjects habitually rely on one mechanism to make a decision in all contexts whereas unstressed subjects utilize a more cognitively flexible approach.

Neotropical mammal diversity and the Great American Biotic Interchange: spatial and temporal variation in South America's fossil record.

The vast mammal diversity of the Neotropics is the result of a long evolutionary history. During most of the Cenozoic, South America was an island continent with an endemic mammalian fauna. This isolation ceased during the late Neogene after the formation of the Isthmus of Panama, resulting in an event known as the Great American Biotic Interchange (GABI). In this study, we investigate biogeographic patterns in South America, just before or when the first immigrants are recorded and we review the temporal and geographical distribution of fossil mammals during the GABI. We performed a dissimilarity analysis which grouped the faunal assemblages according to their age and their geographic distribution. Our data support the differentiation between tropical and temperate assemblages in South America during the middle and late Miocene. The GABI begins during the late Miocene (~10-7 Ma) and the putative oldest migrations are recorded in the temperate region, where the number of GABI participants rapidly increases after ~5 Ma and this trend continues during the Pleistocene. A sampling bias toward higher latitudes and younger records challenges the study of the temporal and geographic patterns of the GABI.