The Potential for Prevention Science in Middle and Late Adulthood: a Commentary on the Special Issue of Prevention Science.

This commentary on the special issue of Prevention Science, "Toward a Lifespan Prevention Science: A Focus on Middle and Late Adulthood" reviews the studies included in the issue, compares findings, and makes recommendations for future directions in this emerging field. Articles in this issue addressed a number of the key elements of prevention science, including identifying proximal and distal risk and protective factors that play a role in middle and late adult health and well-being, providing preliminary evidence for a preventive intervention to moderate stress reactivity, and proposing a theoretical approach to preventing substance misuse across the lifespan. Our commentary centers around three critical areas for mid and later life prevention science: the importance of theory building, a focus on alcohol and its role in midlife health, and health disparities. Each of the articles in this issue touched on at least one of these areas. We conclude that a focus on prevention in mid and later life has strong potential, and further research is needed.

Adolescent Antecedents of Young Adult Homelessness: a Cross-national Path Analysis.

Adolescent and young adult health, development, and behavior lay a foundation for future population health. Increasing rates of young adult homelessness mean there is a need for research which generates evidence to support a stronger focus on population-level prevention. Using longitudinal data from a population-based sample of young adults participating in the cross-nationally matched International Youth Development Study, we examined adolescent antecedents of young adult homelessness in Washington State in the USA and in Victoria, Australia. Participants were surveyed using a modified version of the Communities That Care youth survey. Analyses of prospective, longitudinal data from 1945 participants, recruited as state-representative secondary school samples at grade 7 (average age 13, 2002) and longitudinally compared at young adulthood (average age 25, 2014), showed that young adults in Washington State reported higher rates of past year homelessness (5.24%) compared to those in Victoria (3.25%). Path modeling showed less positive family management strategies at age 13 uniquely increased risk for age 25 homelessness. This effect remained after accounting for age 15 antecedents in peer-group, school, and community environments. Friends' drug use, school suspension, academic failure, and low neighborhood attachment at age 15 mediated the association between less positive family management strategies at age 13 and age 25 homelessness. Despite observing some cross-national differences in levels of family, peer-group, school, and community antecedents, we found that these factors equally increased risk for age 25 homelessness in both states, suggesting similar cross-national influences for young adult homelessness. The findings indicate cross-nationally common adolescent antecedents for young adult homelessness that could be targeted by prevention strategies across international settings.

Longitudinal Associations Between Early-Mid Adolescent Risk and Protective Factors and Young Adult Homelessness in Australia and the United States.

Homelessness is associated with a range of negative health and behavioral outcomes, yet life-course pathways to homelessness from adolescence to early adulthood are not well-documented. This study asks to what extent do early-mid adolescent risk and protective factors predict young adult homelessness, and whether the predictive nature of these factors is similar in Victoria, Australia, and Washington State in the USA. As part of the International Youth Development Study, adolescents were recruited as state representative secondary school samples at grade 7 (age 13, 2002) and longitudinally compared at average age 25. Higher rates of past year homelessness were reported by Washington State (5.24%), compared to Victorian young adults (3.25%). Although some cross-state differences in levels of adolescent demographic, individual, family, peer group, school, and community predictors were found, cross-state comparisons showed these factors were equally predictive of young adult homelessness in both states. In univariate analyses, most adolescent risk and protective factors were significant predictors. Unique multivariate adolescent predictors associated with young adult homelessness included school suspension (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.76) and academic failure (AOR = 1.94). No significant unique protective effects were found. Prevention and intervention efforts that support adolescents' academic engagement may help in addressing young adult homelessness. The similar cross-state profile of adolescent predictors suggests that programs seeking to support academic engagement may influence risk for homelessness into young adulthood in both states. The similarity in life-course pathways to homelessness suggests that the USA and Australia can profitably translate prevention and intervention efforts to reduce homelessness while continuing to identify modifiable predictors.

Neighborhood Structural Factors and Proximal Risk for Youth Substance Use.

This study examined associations of neighborhood structural factors (census-based measures, socioeconomic disadvantage, and residential stability); self-reported measures of general and substance use-specific risk factors across neighborhood, school, peer, and family domains; and sociodemographic factors with substance use among 9th grade students. Data drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project, a theory-driven longitudinal study originating in Seattle, WA, were used to estimate associations between risk factors and past month cigarette smoking, binge drinking, marijuana use, and polysubstance use among students (N = 766). Results of logistic regression models adjusting for neighborhood clustering and including all domains of risk factors simultaneously indicated that neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and polysubstance use, but not marijuana use. In fully controlled models, substance use-specific risk factors across neighborhood, school, peer, and family domains were also associated with increased likelihood of substance use and results differed by the outcome considered. Results highlight substance-specific risk factors as an intervention target for reducing youth substance use and suggest that further research is needed examining mechanisms linking neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and youth substance use.

Identifying and predicting criminal career profiles from adolescence to age 39.

Few longitudinal studies are capable of identifying criminal career profiles using both self-report and official court data beyond the 30s. The current study aims to identify criminal career profiles across three developmental periods using self-report data, validate these profiles with official court records and determine early childhood predictors. Data came from the Seattle Social Development Project (n = 808). Latent Class Analysis was used to examine criminal careers from self-reported data during adolescence (aged 14-18), early adulthood (aged 21-27) and middle adulthood (aged 30-39). Official court records were used to validate the classes. Childhood risk and promotive factors measured at ages 11-12 were used to predict classes. Findings revealed four career classes: non-offending (35.6%), adolescence-limited (33.2%), adult desister (18.3%) and life-course/persistent (12.9%). Official court records are consistent with the description of the classes. Early life school and family environments as well as having antisocial beliefs and friends differentiate membership across the classes. The results of this study, with a gender-balanced and racially diverse sample, bolster the current criminal career knowledge by examining multiple developmental periods into the 30s using both self-report and official court data.

Prevalence of homelessness and co-occurring problems: A comparison of young adults in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, United States.

Homelessness is associated with various co-occurring health and social problems yet; few contemporary international studies have examined these problems in young adulthood. This descriptive study presents cross-state comparison of the prevalence of young adult homelessness in Washington State, USA and Victoria, Australia using state representative samples from the International Youth Development Study (IYDS; n = 1,945, 53% female). Associations between young adult homelessness and a range of co-occurring problems were examined using a modified version of the Communities That Care youth survey. Results showed significantly higher rates of past year homelessness were reported by young adults in Washington State (5.24% vs. 3.25% in Victoria). Cross-state differences were evident in levels of friends' drug use, antisocial behavior, weekly income and support from peers. Unemployment (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 2.67), antisocial behavior (AOR = 3.54) and victimization (AOR = 3.37) were more likely among young adults reporting homelessness in both states. Young adults with higher weekly income were less likely to report homelessness (AOR = .69) in both states. No significant association between mental health problem symptoms, substance use, family conflict or interaction with antisocial peers and homelessness were found in either state. Rates of violent behavior were more strongly related to young adult homelessness in Washington State than Victoria. The current findings suggest that programs that enable young adults to pursue income and employment, reduce antisocial behavior and include services for those who have been victimized, may help to mitigate harm among young adults experiencing homelessness.

The Interplay Between Marijuana-Specific Risk Factors and Marijuana Use Over the Course of Adolescence.

Permissive attitudes and norms about marijuana use and perceptions of low harm from use are considered risk factors for adolescent marijuana use. However, the relationship between risk and use may be reciprocal and vary across development and socializing domains. We examined the bidirectional relationships between marijuana-specific risk factors in individual, parent, peer, and community domains and adolescent marijuana use. Longitudinal data came from a sample of 2002 adolescents in 12 communities. Controlling for sociodemographic covariates and communities in which the individuals resided, autoregressive cross-lagged models examined predictive associations between the risk factors and marijuana use. After accounting for concurrent relationships between risk and use and stability in behavior over time, early adolescence and the transition to high school were particularly salient developmental time points. Specifically, higher risk in all four domains in grades 7 and 9 predicted greater use 1 year later. Moreover, youth's perception of lax community enforcement of laws regarding adolescent use at all time points predicted increases in marijuana use at the subsequent assessment, and perceived low harm from use was a risk factor that prospectively predicted more marijuana use at most of the time points. Finally, greater frequency of marijuana use predicted higher levels of risk factors at the next time point in most socializing domains throughout adolescence. Prevention programs should take into account developmental transitions, especially in early adolescence and during the transition to high school. They also should focus on the reciprocal relationships between use and risk across multiple socializing domains.

Effects of Social Development Intervention in Childhood on Adult Life at Ages 30 to 39.

Elementary schools can be effective sites for universal preventive interventions. Less is known about how long effects of intervention in elementary grades last. Can they improve outcomes in adulthood? To test effects of a social developmental intervention in the elementary grades on adult life through the 30s, the Seattle Social Development Project, a nonrandomized controlled trial, followed all consenting 5th-grade students (N = 808) from 18 Seattle public elementary schools from age 10 (in 1985) to age 39 (in 2014), with 88% retention. The sample was gender balanced and ethnically and economically diverse. The full intervention, called Raising Healthy Children, continued from Grades 1 through 6 and consisted of teacher in-service training in classroom management and instructional methods; cognitive, social, and refusal skills training for children; and parent workshops in child behavior monitoring and management, academic support, and anticipatory guidance. Using structural equation modeling, we examined intervention effects from age 30 to age 39 across 9 constructs indicating 3 domains of adult life: health behavior, positive functioning, and adult health and success. An omnibus test across all 9 constructs indicated a significant positive overall intervention-control difference. Examined individually, significant intervention effects included better health maintenance behavior, mental health, and overall adult health and success. Significant effects were not found on substance use disorder symptoms, sex-risk behaviors, or healthy close relationships in the 30s. Results indicate that sustained, theory-based, multicomponent intervention in the elementary grades can produce lasting changes in health maintenance, mental health, and adult functioning through the 30s.

Optimizing Assessment of Risk and Protection for Diverse Adolescent Outcomes: Do Risk and Protective Factors for Delinquency and Substance Use Also Predict Risky Sexual Behavior?

Assessments of youth risk and protective factors (RPFs) for substance use, delinquency, and violence have been used by communities to identify priorities and target them with prevention interventions. These same RPFs may also predict other youth problems. This study examined the strength and consistency of relationships of 41 ecological RPFs that predict antisocial behavior and substance use with sexual behavior outcomes in a sample of 2150 urban youth in 10th and 12th grade. After adjusting for controls, findings identify significant associations among the majority of community, school, family, peer, and individual risk factors, and family, peer, and individual protective factors, with sexual behavior outcomes, specifying unique associations among multiple factors with risky sex relative to both safe sex and not being sexually active. Prevention programming that targets common predictors for multiple problems may address a broad array of outcomes, including sexual health risk behaviors.

Neighborhood, Family, and Peer Factors Associated with Early Adolescent Smoking and Alcohol Use.

There is broad agreement that neighborhood contexts are important for adolescent development, but there is less consensus about their association with adolescent smoking and alcohol use. Few studies have examined associations between neighborhood socioeconomic contexts and smoking and alcohol use while also accounting for differences in family and peer risk factors for substance use. Data drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project (N = 808), a gender-balanced (female = 49%), multiethnic, theory-driven longitudinal study originating in Seattle, WA, were used to estimate trajectories of smoking and alcohol use from 5th to 9th grade. Time-varying measures of neighborhood socioeconomic, family, and peer factors were associated with smoking and alcohol use at each wave after accounting for average growth in smoking and alcohol use over time and demographic differences. Results indicated that living in more socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods, lower family income, lower family general functioning, more permissive family smoking environments, and affiliation with deviant peers were independently associated with increased smoking. Lower family functioning, more permissive family alcohol use environments, and deviant peers were independently associated with increased alcohol use. The effect of neighborhood disadvantage on smoking was mediated by family income and deviant peers while the effect of neighborhood disadvantage on alcohol use was mediated by deviant peers alone. Family functioning and family substance use did not mediate associations between neighborhood disadvantage and smoking or alcohol use. The results highlight the importance of neighborhood, family, and peer factors in early adolescent smoking and alcohol use. Future studies should examine the unique association of neighborhood disadvantage with adolescent smoking net of family socioeconomics, functioning, and substance use, as well as peer affiliations. Better understanding of the role of contextual factors in early adolescent smoking and alcohol use can help bolster efforts to prevent both short and long harms from substance use.

Defining and achieving permanency among older youth in foster care.

Permanency is a key child welfare system goal for the children they serve. This study addresses three key research questions: (1) How do older youth in foster care define their personal permanency goals? (2) How much progress have these youth made in achieving their personal permanency goals and other aspects of relational permanency, and how does this vary by gender, race, and age? and (3) What transition-related outcomes are associated with relational permanency achievement? Surveys were conducted with 97 youth between the ages of 14 and 20 currently in care. Over three-fourths of participants had an informal/relational permanency goal; however, only 6.7% had achieved their goal. Of eight additional conceptualizations of relational permanency assessed, the one associated with achievement of the highest number of key transition outcomes was Sense of Family Belonging. The transition outcomes with the most associations with permanency achievement were physical health and mental health. Relational permanency is a highly personal part of the transition process for youth in care, warranting personalized supports to ensure individual youths' goals are being addressed in transition planning. Permanency achievement may also provide a foundation for supporting youth in achieving other key transition outcomes.

Time-varying effects of families and peers on adolescent marijuana use: Person-environment interactions across development.

Studies have demonstrated that the effects of two well-known predictors of adolescent substance use, family monitoring and antisocial peers, are not static but change over the course of adolescence. Moreover, these effects may differ for different groups of youth. The current study uses time-varying effect modeling to examine the changes in the association between family monitoring and antisocial peers and marijuana use from ages 11 to 19, and to compare these associations by gender and levels of behavioral disinhibition. Data are drawn from the Raising Healthy Children study, a longitudinal panel of 1,040 youth. The strength of association between family monitoring and antisocial peers and marijuana use was mostly steady over adolescence, and was greater for girls than for boys. Differences in the strength of the association were also evident by levels of behavioral disinhibition: youth with lower levels of disinhibition were more susceptible to the influence of parents and peers. Stronger influence of family monitoring on girls and less disinhibited youth was most evident in middle adolescence, whereas the stronger effect of antisocial peers was significant during middle and late adolescence. Implications for the timing and targeting of marijuana preventive interventions are discussed.

Influence of Early Onset of Alcohol Use on the Development of Adolescent Alcohol Problems: a Longitudinal Binational Study.

This study examined cross-national similarities in a developmental model linking early age of alcohol use onset to frequent drinking and heavy drinking and alcohol problems 1 and 2 years later in a binational sample of 13-year-old students from two states: Washington State, USA and Victoria, Australia (N = 1833). A range of individual, family, school, and peer influences was included in analyses to investigate their unique and shared contribution to development of early and more serious forms of alcohol use and harms from misuse. Data were collected annually over a 3-year period from ages 13 to 15. Analyses were conducted using multiple-group structural equation modeling. For both states, early use of alcohol predicted frequent drinking, which predicted alcohol problems. Family protective influences had neither direct effects on heavy drinking nor effects on alcohol harm in either state, whereas school protection directly reduced the risk of heavy drinking in both states. Exposure to antisocial peers and siblings predicted a higher likelihood of heavy drinking and alcohol harm for students in both Washington and Victoria. Implications for the prevention of adolescent alcohol problems are discussed.

An Examination of Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms and Neighborhood Disorganization from Age 21 to 39.

Living in disorganized neighborhoods characterized by high levels of poverty, crime, violence, and deteriorating buildings has been associated with increased alcohol consumption and mental health problems. Data drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project (N = 790), a theory-driven longitudinal study originating in Seattle, WA, were used to estimate trajectories of Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) symptoms from age 21 to 39. Time-varying measures of neighborhood disorganization, psychological distress, and sociodemographic factors were associated with deviations from average AUD symptoms at each wave. Results indicated that, on average, AUD symptoms decreased as individuals got older. Living in more disorganized neighborhoods and experiencing psychological distress was associated with increased AUD symptoms after accounting for average reductions from AUD symptoms over time and time-varying measures of relevant sociodemographic factors. Results of mediation analysis suggested that psychological distress is a mechanism by which disorganized neighborhoods increased risk of AUD from age 21 to 39.

Sexual behaviour in early adolescence: a cross-national comparison of Australian and United States youth.

OBJECTIVE: This study used matched samples from schools in the states of Victoria, Australia and Washington, United States (US), to compare sexual behaviour in early adolescence. It was hypothesised that the contrasting dominant policy objectives of harm minimisation in Australia and abstinence in the US would result in state differences for markers of sexual risk, mirroring prior cross-national findings in substance use. METHOD: A two-stage cluster sampling approach was used to recruit students from the two states. Self-reported sexual behaviour was examined for 1,596 students in annual surveys from Grade 7 in 2002 to Grade 9 in 2004. Prevalence estimates were derived for each measure of sexual behaviour, and comparisons were made between gender groups in each state. RESULTS: State differences were found for girls' first sex, with significantly more girls in Washington than Victoria having had sex by Grade 7. By Grade 9, significantly more girls in Victoria reported sex in the last year and more sexual partners than girls in Washington. A large proportion of Grade 9 students across both states reported inconsistent contraception use. CONCLUSIONS: Contradicting the abstinence policy objective, first sex by Grade 7 was more prevalent in Washington than Victoria. Whilst sexual behaviour was more prevalent in Grade 9 in Victoria, the sexually active showed no clear cross-national differences in markers of risk such as contraception use and pregnancy outcomes. Findings demonstrate few cross-national differences in adolescent sexual behaviour despite the different policy contexts of Victoria, Australia and Washington, US.

HIV/Sexually Transmitted Infection Prevention Messaging: Targeting Root Causes of Sexual Risk Behavior.

INTRODUCTION: Sexual risk behaviors (SRBs) often lead to sexually transmitted infections (STI), yet little is known about what drives SRB and whether this differs by sex. METHOD: Participants (n = 920; 75% white) were drawn from the Raising Healthy Children study, enrolled in 1993 and 1994 in grades 1 to 2, and followed up through age 24/25 years. Lifetime STI diagnosis was defined by self-report or seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis or herpes simplex virus 2. Multivariable models assessed individual (social skills, behavioral disinhibition) and environmental factors (family involvement, school bonding, antisocial friends) predictive of STI diagnosis as mediated by 3 proximal SRB (sex under the influence of drugs or alcohol, condom use, lifetime number of sex partners). RESULTS: Twenty-five percent of participants had ever had an STI. All SRBs differed by sex (P < 0.001), and female participants were more likely to have had an STI (P < 0.001). Behavioral disinhibition and antisocial friends in adolescence were associated with more SRB for both sexes, whereas social skills were associated with less SRB in female but more in male participants. Considering SRB and individual and environmental factors together, lifetime number of sex partners (adjusted relative risk [ARR], 1.04per partner; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.05) and inconsistent condom use (ARR, 1.10per year; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16) were associated with increased risk of STI, whereas social skills were associated with decreased risk of STI (ARR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.93). Behavioral disinhibition seemed to drive SRB, but family involvement mitigated this in several cases. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent environmental influences and individual characteristics drive some SRB and may be more effective targets for STI/HIV prevention interventions than proximal risk behaviors.

A Test-Replicate Approach to Candidate Gene Research on Addiction and Externalizing Disorders: A Collaboration Across Five Longitudinal Studies.

This study presents results from a collaboration across five longitudinal studies seeking to test and replicate models of gene-environment interplay in the development of substance use and externalizing disorders (SUDs, EXT). We describe an overview of our conceptual models, plan for gene-environment interplay analyses, and present main effects results evaluating six candidate genes potentially relevant to SUDs and EXT (MAOA, 5-HTTLPR, COMT, DRD2, DAT1, and DRD4). All samples included rich longitudinal and phenotypic measurements from childhood/adolescence (ages 5-13) through early adulthood (ages 25-33); sample sizes ranged from 3487 in the test sample, to ~600-1000 in the replication samples. Phenotypes included lifetime symptom counts of SUDs (nicotine, alcohol and cannabis), adult antisocial behavior, and an aggregate externalizing disorder composite. Covariates included the first 10 ancestral principal components computed using all autosomal markers in subjects across the data sets, and age at the most recent assessment. Sex, ancestry, and exposure effects were thoroughly evaluated. After correcting for multiple testing, only one significant main effect was found in the test sample, but it was not replicated. Implications for subsequent gene-environment interplay analyses are discussed.

Understanding the interplay of individual and social-developmental factors in the progression of substance use and mental health from childhood to adulthood.

This study examines the interplay between individual and social-developmental factors in the development of positive functioning, substance use problems, and mental health problems. This interplay is nested within positive and negative developmental cascades that span childhood, adolescence, the transition to adulthood, and adulthood. Data are drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project, a gender-balanced, ethnically diverse community sample of 808 participants interviewed 12 times from ages 10 to 33. Path modeling showed short- and long-term cascading effects of positive social environments, family history of depression, and substance-using social environments throughout development. Positive family social environments set a template for future partner social environment interaction and had positive influences on proximal individual functioning, both in the next developmental period and long term. Family history of depression adversely affected mental health functioning throughout adulthood. Family substance use began a cascade of substance-specific social environments across development, which was the pathway through which increasing severity of substance use problems flowed. The model also indicated that adolescent, but not adult, individual functioning influenced selection into positive social environments, and significant cross-domain effects were found in which substance-using social environments affected subsequent mental health.

Peer Group Patterns of Alcohol-Using Behaviors Among Early Adolescents in Victoria, Australia, and Washington State, United States.

The goal of this study was to examine and cross-nationally compare the peer group patterns of alcohol-drinking behaviors among cohorts of early adolescents (ages 11-14 years) in Victoria, Australia, and Washington State, United States. Latent transition analysis revealed that after 1 year, transitions congruent with peer influence (whereby non-drinking adolescents initiated alcohol use in the presence of drinking peers) and reverse peer influence were observed in both states; however, transitions congruent with peer selection (whereby drinking adolescents self-selected into drinking peer groups) were only observed among Victorian early adolescents. Findings were interpreted to suggest that Australian family and cultural norms that more commonly allow early adolescent alcohol use lead to a higher rate of peer selection.

Evaluation of Community-Level Effects of Communities That Care on Adolescent Drug Use and Delinquency Using a Repeated Cross-Sectional Design.

The Communities That Care (CTC) prevention system has shown effects on reducing incidence and prevalence of problem behaviors among a panel of youth followed from 5th through 12th grade. The present report examines whether similar intervention effects could be observed using a repeated cross-sectional design in the same study. Data were from a community-randomized trial of 24 US towns. Cross-sectional samples of sixth, eighth, and tenth graders were surveyed at four waves. Two-stage ANCOVA analyses estimated differences between CTC and control communities in community-level prevalence of problem behaviors for each grade, adjusting for baseline prevalence. No statistically significant reductions in prevalence of problem behaviors were observed at any grade in CTC compared to control communities. Secondary analyses examined intervention effects within a "pseudo cohort" where cross-sectional data were used from sixth graders at baseline and tenth graders 4 years later. When examining effects within the pseudo cohort, CTC compared to control communities showed a significantly slower increase from sixth to tenth grade in lifetime smokeless tobacco use but not for other outcomes. Exploratory analyses showed significantly slower increases in lifetime problem behaviors within the pseudo cohort for CTC communities with high, but not low, prevention program saturation compared to control communities. Although CTC demonstrated effects in a longitudinal panel from the same community-randomized trial, we did not find similar effects on problem behaviors using a repeated cross-sectional design. These differences may be due to a reduced ability to detect effects because of potential cohort effects, accretion of those who were not exposed, and attrition of those who were exposed to CTC programming in the repeated cross-sectional sample.