Risk Factors of Dengue Fever in Urban Areas of Rawalpindi District in Pakistan During 2017: A Case Control Study.

BACKGROUND: During August 2017, increased numbers of suspected dengue fever cases were reported in the hospitals of Rawalpindi district. A case control study was conducted to determine the risk factors among urban areas, dengue serotype, and recommend preventive measures. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the investigation was to determine the risk factors among urban areas, dengue serotype, and recommend preventive measures. METHODS: A case was defined as having acute febrile illness with one or more of the following symptoms: retro-orbital pain, headache, rash, myalgia, arthralgia, and hemorrhage. The cases were residents of Rawalpindi and were confirmed for dengue fever from August 30, 2017, to October 30, 2017. All NS1 confirmed cases from urban areas of Rawalpindi were recruited from tertiary care hospitals. Age- and sex-matched controls were selected from the same community with a 1:1 ratio. Frequency, univariate, and multivariate analyses were performed at 95% CI with P<.05 considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Totally 373 cases were recruited. The mean age was 36 (SD 2.9) years (range 10-69 years), and 280 cases (75%) were male. The most affected age group was 21-30 years (n=151, attack rate [AR] 40%), followed by 31-40 years (n=66, AR 23%). Further, 2 deaths were reported (case fatality rate of 0.53%). The most frequent signs or symptoms were fever (n=373, 100%), myalgia and headache (n=320, 86%), and retro-orbital pain (n=272, 73%). Serotype identification was carried out in 322 cases, and DEN-2 was the dominant serotype (n=126, 34%). Contact with a confirmed dengue case (odds ratio [OR] 4.27; 95% CI 3.14-5.81; P<.001), stored water in open containers at home (OR 2.04; 95% CI 1.53-2.73; P<.001), and travel to a dengue outbreak area (OR 2.88; 95% CI 2.12-3.92; P<.001) were the main reasons for the outbreak, whereas use of mosquito repellents (OR 0.12; 95% CI 0.09-0.18; P<.001) and regular water supply at home (OR 0.03; 95% CI 0.02-0.04; P<.001) showed protective effects. The geographical distribution of cases was limited to densely populated areas and all the 5 randomly collected water samples tested positive for dengue larvae. CONCLUSIONS: Stored water in containers inside houses and subsequent mosquito breeding were the most probable causes of this outbreak. Based on the study findings, undertaking activities to improve the use of mosquito repellents and removing sources of breeding (uncovered water stored indoors) are some recommendations for preventing dengue outbreaks.

An Epidemic of Pediatric HIV From Reuse of Infusion Equipment in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: From April to June 2019, a total of 909 new HIV infections were identified in Larkana, Pakistan; 86% was children younger than 15 years. To identify the possible transmission links in this outbreak, a case-control study was conducted in June 2019. METHODS: For cases, we selected a systematic random sample of 100 HIV-positive children from the screening list. We chose 2 age-matched and sex-matched controls from the neighborhood of each HIV-positive case. All selected children were tested using the World Health Organization-approved rapid diagnosis test algorithm. We interviewed the parents of each selected child about previous exposures to parenteral treatment and compared exposures of case and control children using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: The ages of the selected children ranged from 1 month to 10 years. More than 90% of both HIV+ and HIV- children had received outpatient health care from MBBS-qualified private physicians. Eighty-three percent of HIV+ children versus 46% of HIV- children had received health care from one private physician [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 29, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 10 to 79]. Intravenous infusions during the last outpatient visit were reported by 29% of case versus 7% of controls (aOR 57, 95% CI: 2.9 to >1000), whereas no case children and 17% of control children had received only intramuscular injections (aOR 0, 95% CI: 0 to 41). Among cases, 94% had been given infusions through a drip set compared with 85% of control children (aOR = 7.7, 95% CI: 2.3 to 26). Infusions had been administered with reused IV drip sets in 70% of cases compared with 8% of controls (aOR = 197, 95% CI: 16 to 2400). DISCUSSION: Private physicians reusing intravenous drip sets to treat outpatients seen in private practice were responsible for this HIV epidemic. Mapping and regulation of private practitioners were suggested.

Impact of environmental factors on COVID-19 cases and mortalities in major cities of Pakistan.

INTRODUCTION: Climate factors play an important role in the transmission of viruses, such as influenza viruses, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-1. This study aimed to determine the relationship between changes in temperature, humidity, rainfall, and SARS-CoV-2 contagion. Five ecologically and climatically distinct regions were considered-Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar, and Gilgit-Baltistan. METHOD: Data on daily COVID-19 cases and deaths were retrieved from government officials, while meteorological information was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department.. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 20 and the Spearman rank correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between the meteorological factors and COVID-19 cases and deaths. RESULT: Positive correlation of COVID-19 incidence was observed with all the temperature ranges (maximum, minimum and average) and negative correlation was seen with humidity, DTR and rainfall. COVID-19 deaths were positively associated with temperature and were negatively associated only with humidity. Linear regression showed that for every unit increase in humidity, there was a -3.345 daily significant decrease in COVID-19 cases, while in Karachi for every unit increase in humidity, there remained a 10.104 daily significant increase in cases. In Gilgit-Baltistan, for every unit increase in average temperature and rainfall respectively, significant increases of 0.534 and 1.286 in daily cases were found. CONCLUSION: This study signifies the effect of climate factors on COVID-19 incidence and mortality rate, but climate factors are not the only variable and several other interlinked factors enhance the spread of COVID-19. Hence, effective mitigation policies, enhancing testing capacities, and developing public attitudes toward adopting precautionary measures are important to overcome this overwhelming pandemic.

Morbidity and Mortality Associated with Typhoid Fever Among Hospitalized Patients in Hyderabad District, Pakistan, 2017-2018: Retrospective Record Review.

BACKGROUND: Hyderabad, Pakistan, was the first city to witness an outbreak of extensively drug resistant (XDR) typhoid fever. The outbreak strain is resistant to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, fluoroquinolones, and third-generation cephalosporin, thus greatly limiting treatment options. However, despite over 5000 documented cases, information on mortality and morbidity has been limited. OBJECTIVE: To address the existing knowledge gap, this study aimed to assess the morbidity and mortality associated with XDR and non-XDR Salmonella serovar Typhi infections in Pakistan. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of culture-confirmed typhoid cases in 5 hospitals in Hyderabad from October 1, 2016, to September 30, 2018. We recorded data on age, gender, onset of fever, physical examination, serological and microbiological test results, treatment before and during hospitalization, duration of hospitalization, complications, and deaths. RESULTS: A total of 1452 culture-confirmed typhoid cases, including 947 (66%) XDR typhoid cases and 505 (34%) non-XDR typhoid cases, were identified. Overall, ≥1 complications were reported in 360 (38%) patients with XDR typhoid and 89 (18%) patients with non-XDR typhoid (P<.001). Ileal perforation was the most commonly reported complication in both patients with XDR typhoid (n=210, 23%) and patients with non-XDR typhoid (n=71, 14%) (P<.001). Overall, mortality was documented among 17 (1.8%) patients with XDR S Typhi infections and 3 (0.6%) patients with non-XDR S Typhi infections (P=.06). CONCLUSIONS: As this first XDR typhoid outbreak continues to spread, the increased duration of illness before hospitalization and increased rate of complications have important implications for clinical care and medical costs and heighten the importance of prevention and control measures.

Risk Factors Associated with a Dengue Fever Outbreak in Islamabad, Pakistan: Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: On October 23, 2016, 79 dengue fever cases were reported from the Union Council Tarlai to Federal Disease Surveillance and Response Unit Islamabad. A team was established to investigate the suspected dengue outbreak. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the extent of the outbreak and identify the possible risk factors. METHODS: Active case finding was performed through a house-to-house survey. A case was defined as an acute onset of fever ≥38℃ in a resident of Tarlai from October 2 to November 11, 2016, with a positive dengue virus (nonstructural protein, NS-1) test and any of the two of following signs and symptoms: retroorbital/ocular pain, headache, rash, myalgia, arthralgia, and hemorrhagic manifestations. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Age- and sex-matched controls (1:1) were identified from residents in the same area as cases. Blood samples were taken and sent to the National Institute of Health for genotype identification. RESULTS: During the active case search, 145 cases of dengue fever were identified by surveying 928 houses from October 23 to November 11, 2016. The attack rate (AR) was 17.0/10,000. The mean age was 34.4 (SD 14.4) years. More than half of the cases were male (80/145, 55.2%). Among all cases, 29% belonged to the 25-34 years age group and the highest AR was found in the 35-44 years age group (35.6/10,000), followed by the 55-64 years age group (35.5/10,000). All five blood samples tested positive for NS-1 (genotype DENV-2). The most frequent presenting signs/symptoms were fever and headache (both 100%). Stagnant water around houses (odds ratio [OR] 4.86, 95% CI 2.94-8.01; P<.001), presence of flower pots in the home (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.67-4.45; P<.001), and open water containers (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.36-3.60; P<.001) showed higher odds among cases. Conversely, use of bed nets (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25-0.77; P=.003), insecticidal spray (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.22-0.55; P<.001), door screens (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.46; P<.001), mosquito coil/mat (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.16-0.44; P<.001), and cleanliness of the house (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.05-0.26; P<.001) showed significant protective effects. CONCLUSIONS: Stagnant water acting as breeding grounds for vectors was identified as the probable cause of spread of the dengue outbreak. Establishment of surveillance and an early reporting system along with use of protective measures against the vector are strongly recommended.