RESUMO
In this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.
RESUMO
El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.
Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul , Mudança Climática , Clima Tropical , Movimentos da ÁguaRESUMO
Ordinal data are the most frequently encountered type of data in the social sciences. Many statistical methods can be used to process such data. One common method is to assign scores to the data, convert them into interval data, and further perform statistical analysis. There are several authors who have recently developed assigning score methods to assign scores to ordered categorical data. This paper proposes an approach that defines an assigning score system for an ordinal categorical variable based on underlying continuous latent distribution with interpretation by using three case study examples. The results show that the proposed score system is well for skewed ordinal categorical data.
Assuntos
Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/efeitos adversos , Coleta de Dados/classificação , Efeitos Tardios da Exposição Pré-Natal/classificação , Religião , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/epidemiologia , Coleta de Dados/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Gravidez , Efeitos Tardios da Exposição Pré-Natal/epidemiologia , Estudos ProspectivosRESUMO
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interseasonal-interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and substantial efforts have been dedicated to predicting its occurrence and variability because of its extensive global impacts. However, ENSO predictability has been reduced in the 21st century, and the impact of extratropical atmosphere on the tropics has intensified during the past 2 decades, making the ENSO more complicated and harder to predict. Here, by combining tropical preconditions/ocean-atmosphere interaction with extratropical precursors, we provide a novel approach to noticeably increase the ENSO prediction skill beyond the spring predictability barrier. The success of increasing the prediction skill results mainly from the longer lead-time of the extratropical-tropical ocean-to-atmosphere interaction process, especially for the first 2 decades of the 21st century.