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1.
Am J Epidemiol ; 193(3): 548-560, 2024 Feb 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37939113

RESUMO

In a recent systematic review, Bastos et al. (Ann Intern Med. 2021;174(4):501-510) compared the sensitivities of saliva sampling and nasopharyngeal swabs in the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection by assuming a composite reference standard defined as positive if either test is positive and negative if both tests are negative (double negative). Even under a perfect specificity assumption, this approach ignores the double-negative results and risks overestimating the sensitivities due to residual misclassification. In this article, we first illustrate the impact of double-negative results in the estimation of the sensitivities in a single study, and then propose a 2-step latent class meta-analysis method for reevaluating both sensitivities using the same published data set as that used in Bastos et al. by properly including the observed double-negative results. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare the performance of the proposed method with Bastos et al.'s method for varied levels of prevalence and between-study heterogeneity. The results demonstrate that the sensitivities are overestimated noticeably using Bastos et al.'s method, and the proposed method provides a more accurate evaluation with nearly no bias and close-to-nominal coverage probability. In conclusion, double-negative results can significantly impact the estimated sensitivities when a gold standard is absent, and thus they should be properly incorporated.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , SARS-CoV-2 , Resultados Negativos , Saliva , Nasofaringe
2.
BMC Med ; 22(1): 450, 2024 Oct 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39394146

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Trial registration aims to address potential bias from selective or non-reporting of findings, and therefore has a vital role in promoting transparency and accountability of clinical research. In this study, we aim to investigate the influence of trial registration on estimated harm effects in randomized controlled trials of medication interventions. METHODS: We searched PubMed for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomized trials on medication harms indexed between January 1, 2015, and January 1, 2020. To be included in the analyses, eligible meta-analyses should have at least five randomized trials with distinct registration statuses (i.e., prospectively registered, retrospectively registered, and non-registered) and 2 by 2 table data for adverse events for each trial. To control for potential confounding, trials in each meta-analysis were analyzed within confounder-harmonized groups (e.g., dosage) identified using the Directed Acyclic Graph method. The harm estimates arising from the trials with different registration statuses were compared within the confounder-harmonized groups using hierarchical linear regression. Results are shown as ratio of odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The dataset consists of 629 meta-analyses of harms with 10,069 trials. Of these trials, 74.3% were registered, and 23.9% were not registered, and for those registered, 70.6% were prospectively registered, while 26.3% were retrospectively registered. In comparison to prospectively registered trials, both non-registered trials (ratio of OR = 0.82, 95%CI 0.68 to 0.98, P = 0.03) and retrospectively registered trials (ratio of OR = 0.75, 95%CI 0.66 to 0.86, P < 0.01) had lower OR for harms based on 69 and 126 confounders-harmonized groups. The OR of harms did not differ between retrospectively registered and non-registered trials (ratio of OR = 1.02, 95%CI 0.85 to 1.23, P = 0.83) based on 76 confounders-harmonized groups. CONCLUSIONS: Medication-related harms may be understated in non-registered trials, and there was no obvious evidence that retrospective registration had a demonstrable benefit in reducing such selective or absent reporting. Prospective registration is highly recommended for future trials.


Assuntos
Efeitos Colaterais e Reações Adversas Relacionados a Medicamentos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Efeitos Colaterais e Reações Adversas Relacionados a Medicamentos/epidemiologia , Sistema de Registros
3.
BMC Med ; 22(1): 83, 2024 Mar 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38448992

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence suggests that lack of blinding may be associated with biased estimates of treatment benefit in randomized controlled trials, but the influence on medication-related harms is not well-recognized. We aimed to investigate the association between blinding and clinical trial estimates of medication-related harms. METHODS: We searched PubMed from January 1, 2015, till January 1, 2020, for systematic reviews with meta-analyses of medication-related harms. Eligible meta-analyses must have contained trials both with and without blinding. Potential covariates that may confound effect estimates were addressed by restricting trials within the comparison or by hierarchical analysis of harmonized groups of meta-analyses (therefore harmonizing drug type, control, dosage, and registration status) across eligible meta-analyses. The weighted hierarchical linear regression was then used to estimate the differences in harm estimates (odds ratio, OR) between trials that lacked blinding and those that were blinded. The results were reported as the ratio of OR (ROR) with its 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: We identified 629 meta-analyses of harms with 10,069 trials. We estimated a weighted average ROR of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.88, P < 0.01) among 82 trials in 20 meta-analyses where blinding of participants was lacking. With regard to lack of blinding of healthcare providers or outcomes assessors, the RORs were 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.87, P < 0.01 from 81 trials in 22 meta-analyses) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.94 to 1.07, P = 0.94 from 858 trials among 155 meta-analyses) respectively. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these findings are applicable to both objective and subjective outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of blinding of participants and health care providers in randomized controlled trials may underestimate medication-related harms. Adequate blinding in randomized trials, when feasible, may help safeguard against potential bias in estimating the effects of harms.


Assuntos
Pessoal de Saúde , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Revisões Sistemáticas como Assunto , Modelos Lineares
4.
Stat Med ; 43(10): 1905-1919, 2024 May 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38409859

RESUMO

A reference interval represents the normative range for measurements from a healthy population. It plays an important role in laboratory testing, as well as in differentiating healthy from diseased patients. The reference interval based on a single study might not be applicable to a broader population. Meta-analysis can provide a more generalizable reference interval based on the combined population by synthesizing results from multiple studies. However, the assumptions of normally distributed underlying study-specific means and equal within-study variances, which are commonly used in existing methods, are strong and may not hold in practice. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model with more flexible assumptions to extend random effects meta-analysis for estimating reference intervals. We illustrate through simulation studies and two real data examples the performance of our proposed approach when the assumptions of normally distributed study means and equal within-study variances do not hold.


Assuntos
Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Simulação por Computador , Tamanho da Amostra
5.
Stat Med ; 2024 Nov 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39489875

RESUMO

Sparse data bias, where there is a lack of sufficient cases, is a common problem in data analysis, particularly when studying rare binary outcomes. Although a two-step meta-analysis approach may be used to lessen the bias by combining the summary statistics to increase the number of cases from multiple studies, this method does not completely eliminate bias in effect estimation. In this paper, we propose a one-shot distributed algorithm for estimating relative risk using a modified Poisson regression for binary data, named ODAP-B. We evaluate the performance of our method through both simulation studies and real-world case analyses of postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children using data from 184 501 children across eight national academic medical centers. Compared with the meta-analysis method, our method provides closer estimates of the relative risk for all outcomes considered including syndromic and systemic outcomes. Our method is communication-efficient and privacy-preserving, requiring only aggregated data to obtain relatively unbiased effect estimates compared with two-step meta-analysis methods. Overall, ODAP-B is an effective distributed learning algorithm for Poisson regression to study rare binary outcomes. The method provides inference on adjusted relative risk with a robust variance estimator.

6.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 24(1): 251, 2024 Oct 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39462323

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Reference intervals, which define an interval in which a specific proportion of measurements from a healthy population are expected to fall, are commonly used in medical practice. Synthesizing information from multiple studies through meta-analysis can provide a more precise and representative reference interval than one derived from a single study. However, the current approaches for estimating the reference interval from a meta-analysis mainly rely on aggregate data and require parametric distributional assumptions that cannot always be checked. METHODS: With the availability of individual participant data (IPD), non-parametric methods can be used to estimate reference intervals without any distributional assumptions. Furthermore, patient-level covariates can be introduced to estimate personalized reference intervals that may be more applicable to specific patients. This paper introduces quantile regression as a method to estimate the reference interval from an IPD meta-analysis under the fixed effects model. RESULTS: We compared several non-parametric bootstrap methods through simulation studies to account for within-study correlation. Under fixed effects model, we recommend keeping the studies fixed and only randomly sampling subjects with replacement within each study. CONCLUSION: We proposed to use the quantile regression in the IPD meta-analysis to estimate the reference interval. Based on the simulation results, we identify an optimal bootstrap strategy for estimating the uncertainty of the estimated reference interval. An example of liver stiffness measurements, a clinically important diagnostic test without explicitly established reference range in children, is provided to demonstrate the use of quantile regression in estimating both overall and subject-specific reference intervals.


Assuntos
Metanálise como Assunto , Humanos , Valores de Referência , Análise de Regressão , Simulação por Computador , Modelos Estatísticos , Interpretação Estatística de Dados
7.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 24(1): 162, 2024 Jul 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39054412

RESUMO

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential tools in contemporary evidence-based medicine, synthesizing evidence from various sources to better inform clinical decision-making. However, the conclusions from different meta-analyses on the same topic can be discrepant, which has raised concerns about their reliability. One reason is that the result of a meta-analysis is sensitive to factors such as study inclusion/exclusion criteria and model assumptions. The arm-based meta-analysis model is growing in importance due to its advantage of including single-arm studies and historical controls with estimation efficiency and its flexibility in drawing conclusions with both marginal and conditional effect measures. Despite its benefits, the inference may heavily depend on the heterogeneity parameters that reflect design and model assumptions. This article aims to evaluate the robustness of meta-analyses using the arm-based model within a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we develop a tipping point analysis of the between-arm correlation parameter to assess the robustness of meta-analysis results. Additionally, we introduce some visualization tools to intuitively display its impact on meta-analysis results. We demonstrate the application of these tools in three real-world meta-analyses, one of which includes single-arm studies.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Medicina Baseada em Evidências , Metanálise como Assunto , Humanos , Medicina Baseada em Evidências/métodos , Medicina Baseada em Evidências/normas , Medicina Baseada em Evidências/estatística & dados numéricos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Revisões Sistemáticas como Assunto/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Algoritmos
8.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 24(1): 263, 2024 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39487397

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The current practice in guideline development is to use the control group event rate (CR) as a surrogate of baseline risk and to assume portability of the relative treatment effect across populations with low, moderate and high baseline risk. We sought to emulate this practice in a very large sample of meta-analyses. METHODS: We retrieved data from all meta-analyses published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2003-2020) that evaluated a binary outcome, reported 2 × 2 data for each individual study and included at least 4 studies. We excluded studies with no events. We conducted meta-analyses with odds ratios and relative risks and performed subgroup analyses based on tertiles of CR. In sensitivity analyses, we evaluated the use of total event rate (TR) instead of CR and using quartiles instead of tertiles. RESULTS: The analysis included 2,531 systematic reviews (27,692 meta-analyses, 226,975 studies, 25,669,783 patients).The percentages of meta-analyses with statistically significant interaction (P < 0.05) based on CR tertile or quartile ranged 12-18% across various sensitivity analyses. This percentage increased as the number of studies or range of CR per meta-analysis increased, reflecting increased power of the subgroup test. The percentages of meta-analyses with statistically significant interaction (P < 0.05) with TR quantiles were lower than those with CR but remained higher than expected by chance. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that when CR or TR are used as surrogates for baseline risk, relative treatment effects may not be portable across populations with varying baseline risks in many meta-analyses. Categroization of the continuous CR variable and not addressing measurement error limit inferences from such analyses and imply that CR is an undesirable source for baseline risk. Guideline developers and decision-makers should be provided with relative and absolute treatment effects that are conditioned on the baseline risk or derived from studies with similar baseline risk to their target populations.


Assuntos
Estudos Epidemiológicos , Humanos , Grupos Controle , Resultado do Tratamento , Metanálise como Assunto , Revisões Sistemáticas como Assunto/métodos , Razão de Chances
9.
J Wound Ostomy Continence Nurs ; 51(1): 53-60, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38215298

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Although maternal depression is associated with adverse outcomes in women and children, its relationship with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) in offspring is less well-characterized. We examined the association between prenatal and postpartum maternal depression and LUTS in primary school-age daughters. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The sample comprised 7148 mother-daughter dyads from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. METHOD: Mothers completed questionnaires about depressive symptoms at 18 and 32 weeks' gestation and 21 months postpartum and their children's LUTS (urinary urgency, nocturia, and daytime and nighttime wetting) at 6, 7, and 9 years of age. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between maternal depression and LUTS in daughters. RESULTS: Compared to daughters of mothers without depression, those born to mothers with prenatal and postpartum depression had higher odds of LUTS, including urinary urgency (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] range = 1.99-2.50) and nocturia (aOR range = 1.67-1.97) at 6, 7, and 9 years of age. Additionally, daughters born to mothers with prenatal and postpartum depression had higher odds of daytime wetting (aOR range = 1.81-1.99) and nighttime wetting (aOR range = 1.63-1.95) at 6 and 7 years of age. Less consistent associations were observed for depression limited to the prenatal or postpartum periods only. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to maternal depression in the prenatal and postpartum periods was associated with an increased likelihood of LUTS in daughters. This association may be an important opportunity for childhood LUTS prevention. Prevention strategies should reflect an understanding of potential biological and environmental mechanisms through which maternal depression may influence childhood LUTS.


Assuntos
Depressão Pós-Parto , Sintomas do Trato Urinário Inferior , Noctúria , Gravidez , Criança , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Depressão Pós-Parto/complicações , Depressão Pós-Parto/epidemiologia , Estudos Longitudinais , Depressão/complicações , Depressão/epidemiologia , Núcleo Familiar , Noctúria/complicações , Noctúria/epidemiologia , Sintomas do Trato Urinário Inferior/complicações , Sintomas do Trato Urinário Inferior/epidemiologia , Instituições Acadêmicas
10.
Am J Obstet Gynecol ; 228(3): 276-282, 2023 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36084702

RESUMO

The fragility index has been increasingly used to assess the robustness of the results of clinical trials since 2014. It aims at finding the smallest number of event changes that could alter originally statistically significant results. Despite its popularity, some researchers have expressed several concerns about the validity and usefulness of the fragility index. It offers a comprehensive review of the fragility index's rationale, calculation, software, and interpretation, with emphasis on application to studies in obstetrics and gynecology. This article presents the fragility index in the settings of individual clinical trials, standard pairwise meta-analyses, and network meta-analyses. Moreover, this article provides worked examples to demonstrate how the fragility index can be appropriately calculated and interpreted. In addition, the limitations of the traditional fragility index and some solutions proposed in the literature to address these limitations were reviewed. In summary, the fragility index is recommended to be used as a supplemental measure in the reporting of clinical trials and a tool to communicate the robustness of trial results to clinicians. Other considerations that can aid in the fragility index's interpretation include the loss to follow-up and the likelihood of data modifications that achieve the loss of statistical significance.


Assuntos
Probabilidade , Humanos , Metanálise em Rede , Metanálise como Assunto , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto
11.
Biometrics ; 79(1): 358-367, 2023 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34587296

RESUMO

Meta-regression is widely used in systematic reviews to investigate sources of heterogeneity and the association of study-level covariates with treatment effectiveness. Existing meta-regression approaches are successful in adjusting for baseline covariates, which include real study-level covariates (e.g., publication year) that are invariant within a study and aggregated baseline covariates (e.g., mean age) that differ for each participant but are measured before randomization within a study. However, these methods have several limitations in adjusting for post-randomization variables. Although post-randomization variables share a handful of similarities with baseline covariates, they differ in several aspects. First, baseline covariates can be aggregated at the study level presumably because they are assumed to be balanced by the randomization, while post-randomization variables are not balanced across arms within a study and are commonly aggregated at the arm level. Second, post-randomization variables may interact dynamically with the primary outcome. Third, unlike baseline covariates, post-randomization variables are themselves often important outcomes under investigation. In light of these differences, we propose a Bayesian joint meta-regression approach adjusting for post-randomization variables. The proposed method simultaneously estimates the treatment effect on the primary outcome and on the post-randomization variables. It takes into consideration both between- and within-study variability in post-randomization variables. Studies with missing data in either the primary outcome or the post-randomization variables are included in the joint model to improve estimation. Our method is evaluated by simulations and a real meta-analysis of major depression disorder treatments.


Assuntos
Distribuição Aleatória , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Revisões Sistemáticas como Assunto , Resultado do Tratamento
12.
Stat Med ; 42(28): 5085-5099, 2023 Dec 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37724773

RESUMO

When evaluating a diagnostic test, it is common that a gold standard may not be available. One example is the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection using saliva sampling or nasopharyngeal swabs. Without a gold standard, a pragmatic approach is to postulate a "reference standard," defined as positive if either test is positive, or negative if both are negative. However, this pragmatic approach may overestimate sensitivities because subjects infected with SARS-CoV-2 may still have double-negative test results even when both tests exhibit perfect specificity. To address this limitation, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for simultaneously estimating sensitivity, specificity, and disease prevalence in the absence of a gold standard. The proposed model allows adjusting for study-level covariates. We evaluate the model performance using an example based on a recently published meta-analysis on the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and extensive simulations. Compared with the pragmatic reference standard approach, we demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian method provides a more accurate evaluation of prevalence, specificity, and sensitivity in a meta-analytic framework.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Teorema de Bayes , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina/métodos , Teste para COVID-19
13.
CMAJ ; 195(27): E925-E931, 2023 07 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37460126

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Sensitivity and specificity are characteristics of a diagnostic test and are not expected to change as the prevalence of the target condition changes. We sought to evaluate the association between prevalence and changes in sensitivity and specificity. METHODS: We retrieved data from meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2003-2020). We used mixed-effects random-intercept linear regression models to evaluate the association between prevalence and logit-transformed sensitivity and specificity. The model evaluated all meta-analyses as nested within each systematic review. RESULTS: We analyzed 6909 diagnostic test accuracy studies from 552 meta-analyses that were included in 92 systematic reviews. For sensitivity, compared with the lowest quartile of prevalence, the second, third and fourth quartiles were associated with significantly higher odds of identifying a true positive case (odds ratio [OR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.26; OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.23-1.41; OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.37-1.58; respectively). For specificity, compared with the lowest quartile of prevalence, the second, third and fourth quartiles were associated with significantly lower odds of identifying a true negative case (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.69-0.80; OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.60-0.70; OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.44-0.51; respectively). Pooled regression coefficients from bivariate models conducted within each meta-analysis showed that prevalence was positively associated with sensitivity and negatively associated with specificity. Findings were consistent across subgroups. INTERPRETATION: In this large sample of diagnostic studies, higher prevalence was associated with higher estimated sensitivity and lower estimated specificity. Clinicians should consider the implications of disease prevalence and spectrum when interpreting the results from studies of diagnostic test accuracy.


Assuntos
Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , Humanos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Revisões Sistemáticas como Assunto , Metanálise como Assunto
14.
Am J Epidemiol ; 191(5): 948-956, 2022 03 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35102410

RESUMO

Clinicians frequently must decide whether a patient's measurement reflects that of a healthy "normal" individual. Thus, the reference range is defined as the interval in which some proportion (frequently 95%) of measurements from a healthy population is expected to fall. One can estimate it from a single study or preferably from a meta-analysis of multiple studies to increase generalizability. This range differs from the confidence interval for the pooled mean and the prediction interval for a new study mean in a meta-analysis, which do not capture natural variation across healthy individuals. Methods for estimating the reference range from a meta-analysis of aggregate data that incorporates both within- and between-study variations were recently proposed. In this guide, we present 3 approaches for estimating the reference range: one frequentist, one Bayesian, and one empirical. Each method can be applied to either aggregate or individual-participant data meta-analysis, with the latter being the gold standard when available. We illustrate the application of these approaches to data from a previously published individual-participant data meta-analysis of studies measuring liver stiffness by transient elastography in healthy individuals between 2006 and 2016.


Assuntos
Projetos de Pesquisa , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Valores de Referência
15.
Am J Epidemiol ; 191(1): 220-229, 2022 01 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34564720

RESUMO

Noncompliance, a common problem in randomized clinical trials (RCTs), can bias estimation of the effect of treatment receipt using a standard intention-to-treat analysis. The complier average causal effect (CACE) measures the effect of an intervention in the latent subpopulation that would comply with their assigned treatment. Although several methods have been developed to estimate the CACE in analyzing a single RCT, methods for estimating the CACE in a meta-analysis of RCTs with noncompliance await further development. This article reviews the assumptions needed to estimate the CACE in a single RCT and proposes a frequentist alternative for estimating the CACE in a meta-analysis, using a generalized linear latent and mixed model with SAS software (SAS Institute, Inc.). The method accounts for between-study heterogeneity using random effects. We implement the methods and describe an illustrative example of a meta-analysis of 10 RCTs evaluating the effect of receiving epidural analgesia in labor on cesarean delivery, where noncompliance varies dramatically between studies. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.


Assuntos
Viés , Simulação por Computador , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Adesão à Medicação/estatística & dados numéricos , Analgesia Epidural/métodos , Cesárea/métodos , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto
16.
J Gen Intern Med ; 37(2): 308-317, 2022 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34505983

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Meta-analysis is increasingly used to synthesize proportions (e.g., disease prevalence). It can be implemented with widely used two-step methods or one-step methods, such as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Existing simulation studies have shown that GLMMs outperform the two-step methods in some settings. It is, however, unclear whether these simulation settings are common in the real world. We aim to compare the real-world performance of various meta-analysis methods for synthesizing proportions. METHODS: We extracted datasets of proportions from the Cochrane Library and applied 12 two-step and one-step methods to each dataset. We used Spearman's ρ and the Bland-Altman plot to assess their results' correlation and agreement. The GLMM with the logit link was chosen as the reference method. We calculated the absolute difference and fold change (ratio of estimates) of the overall proportion estimates produced by each method vs. the reference method. RESULTS: We obtained a total of 43,644 datasets. The various methods generally had high correlations (ρ > 0.9) and agreements. GLMMs had computational issues more frequently than the two-step methods. However, the two-step methods generally produced large absolute differences from the GLMM with the logit link for small total sample sizes (< 50) and crude event rates within 10-20% and 90-95%, and large fold changes for small total event counts (< 10) and low crude event rates (< 20%). CONCLUSIONS: Although different methods produced similar overall proportion estimates in most datasets, one-step methods should be considered in the presence of small total event counts or sample sizes and very low or high event rates.


Assuntos
Projetos de Pesquisa , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Modelos Lineares , Tamanho da Amostra
17.
Stat Med ; 41(3): 500-516, 2022 02 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34796539

RESUMO

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are principal tools to synthesize evidence from multiple independent sources in many research fields. The assessment of heterogeneity among collected studies is a critical step when performing a meta-analysis, given its influence on model selection and conclusions about treatment effects. A common-effect (CE) model is conventionally used when the studies are deemed homogeneous, while a random-effects (RE) model is used for heterogeneous studies. However, both models have limitations. For example, the CE model produces excessively conservative confidence intervals with low coverage probabilities when the collected studies have heterogeneous treatment effects. The RE model, on the other hand, assigns higher weights to small studies compared to the CE model. In the presence of small-study effects or publication bias, the over-weighted small studies from a RE model can lead to substantially biased overall treatment effect estimates. In addition, outlying studies may exaggerate between-study heterogeneity. This article introduces penalization methods as a compromise between the CE and RE models. The proposed methods are motivated by the penalized likelihood approach, which is widely used in the current literature to control model complexity and reduce variances of parameter estimates. We compare the existing and proposed methods with simulated data and several case studies to illustrate the benefits of the penalization methods.


Assuntos
Funções Verossimilhança , Humanos
18.
Stat Med ; 41(18): 3466-3478, 2022 08 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35574857

RESUMO

In research synthesis, publication bias (PB) refers to the phenomenon that the publication of a study is associated with the direction and statistical significance of its results. Consequently, it may lead to biased (commonly optimistic) estimates of treatment effects. Visualization tools such as funnel plots have been widely used to investigate PB in univariate meta-analyses. The trim and fill procedure is a nonparametric method to identify and adjust for PB. It is popular among applied scientists due to its simplicity. However, most visualization tools and PB correction methods focus on univariate outcomes. For a meta-analysis with multiple outcomes, the conventional univariate trim and fill method can only account for different outcomes separately and thus may lead to inconsistent conclusions. In this article, we propose a bivariate trim and fill procedure to simultaneously account for PB in the presence of two outcomes that are possibly associated. Based on a recently developed galaxy plot for bivariate meta-analysis, the proposed procedure uses a data-driven imputation algorithm to detect and adjust PB. The method relies on the symmetry of the galaxy plot and assumes that some studies are suppressed based on a linear combination of outcomes. The method projects bivariate outcomes along a particular direction, uses the univariate trim and fill method to estimate the number of trimmed and filled studies, and yields consistent conclusions about PB. The proposed approach is validated using simulated data and is applied to a meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of antidepressant drugs.


Assuntos
Viés de Publicação , Humanos
19.
Stat Med ; 41(12): 2276-2290, 2022 05 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35194829

RESUMO

Individual participant data meta-analysis is a frequently used method to combine and contrast data from multiple independent studies. Bayesian hierarchical models are increasingly used to appropriately take into account potential heterogeneity between studies. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for individual participant data generated from the Cigarette Purchase Task (CPT). Data from the CPT details how demand for cigarettes varies as a function of price, which is usually described as an exponential demand curve. As opposed to the conventional random-effects meta-analysis methods, Bayesian hierarchical models are able to estimate both the study-specific and population-level parameters simultaneously without relying on the normality assumptions. We applied the proposed model to a meta-analysis with baseline CPT data from six studies and compared the results from the proposed model and a two-step conventional random-effects meta-analysis approach. We conducted extensive simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed approach and discussed the benefits of using the Bayesian hierarchical model for individual participant data meta-analysis of demand curves.


Assuntos
Produtos do Tabaco , Teorema de Bayes , Análise de Dados , Humanos
20.
J Prosthet Dent ; 2022 Apr 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35410705

RESUMO

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: The use of dense polytetrafluoroethylene (dPTFE) membranes in alveolar ridge preservation may help reduce the risk of bacterial contamination and infection, maintaining the soft-tissue anatomy. However, systematic reviews on their efficacy in postextraction sites are lacking. PURPOSE: The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the efficacy of alveolar ridge preservation with dPTFE membranes when used alone or in combination with bone grafting materials in postextraction sites. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic search up to February 2021 was conducted by using PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library to detect studies using dPTFE membranes in postextraction sites. An additional manual search was performed in relevant journals. Clinical and radiographic dimensional changes of the alveolar ridge, histomorphometric, microcomputed tomography, implant-related findings, and rate of complications were recorded. One-dimensional meta-analysis was performed to calculate the overall means and 95% confidence intervals (α=.05). RESULTS: A total of 23 studies, 14 randomized controlled trials, 4 retrospective cohort studies, 3 case series, and 2 prospective nonrandomized clinical trials, met the inclusion criteria. Five studies were included in the quantitative analysis. The meta-analysis revealed that the use of dPTFE membranes resulted in a statistically significant (P=.042) increase in clinical keratinized tissue of 3.49 mm (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16, 6.83) when compared with extraction alone. Metaregression showed that the difference of 1.10 mm (95% CI: -0.14, 2.35) in the radiographic horizontal measurements was not significant (P=.082), but the difference of 1.06 mm (95% CI: 0.51, 1.62) in the radiographic vertical dimensional change between dPTFE membranes+allograft and extraction alone was statistically significant (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: The use of dPTFE membranes was better than extraction alone in terms of keratinized tissue width and radiographic vertical bone loss.

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