Skilful precipitation nowcasting using deep generative models of radar.

Precipitation nowcasting, the high-resolution forecasting of precipitation up to two hours ahead, supports the real-world socioeconomic needs of many sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision-making1,2. State-of-the-art operational nowcasting methods typically advect precipitation fields with radar-based wind estimates, and struggle to capture important non-linear events such as convective initiations3,4. Recently introduced deep learning methods use radar to directly predict future rain rates, free of physical constraints5,6. While they accurately predict low-intensity rainfall, their operational utility is limited because their lack of constraints produces blurry nowcasts at longer lead times, yielding poor performance on rarer medium-to-heavy rain events. Here we present a deep generative model for the probabilistic nowcasting of precipitation from radar that addresses these challenges. Using statistical, economic and cognitive measures, we show that our method provides improved forecast quality, forecast consistency and forecast value. Our model produces realistic and spatiotemporally consistent predictions over regions up to 1,536 km × 1,280 km and with lead times from 5-90 min ahead. Using a systematic evaluation by more than 50 expert meteorologists, we show that our generative model ranked first for its accuracy and usefulness in 89% of cases against two competitive methods. When verified quantitatively, these nowcasts are skillful without resorting to blurring. We show that generative nowcasting can provide probabilistic predictions that improve forecast value and support operational utility, and at resolutions and lead times where alternative methods struggle.

Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold.

Proteins are essential to life, and understanding their structure can facilitate a mechanistic understanding of their function. Through an enormous experimental effort1-4, the structures of around 100,000 unique proteins have been determined5, but this represents a small fraction of the billions of known protein sequences6,7. Structural coverage is bottlenecked by the months to years of painstaking effort required to determine a single protein structure. Accurate computational approaches are needed to address this gap and to enable large-scale structural bioinformatics. Predicting the three-dimensional structure that a protein will adopt based solely on its amino acid sequence-the structure prediction component of the 'protein folding problem'8-has been an important open research problem for more than 50 years9. Despite recent progress10-14, existing methods fall far short of atomic accuracy, especially when no homologous structure is available. Here we provide the first computational method that can regularly predict protein structures with atomic accuracy even in cases in which no similar structure is known. We validated an entirely redesigned version of our neural network-based model, AlphaFold, in the challenging 14th Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP14)15, demonstrating accuracy competitive with experimental structures in a majority of cases and greatly outperforming other methods. Underpinning the latest version of AlphaFold is a novel machine learning approach that incorporates physical and biological knowledge about protein structure, leveraging multi-sequence alignments, into the design of the deep learning algorithm.

Highly accurate protein structure prediction for the human proteome.

Protein structures can provide invaluable information, both for reasoning about biological processes and for enabling interventions such as structure-based drug development or targeted mutagenesis. After decades of effort, 17% of the total residues in human protein sequences are covered by an experimentally determined structure1. Here we markedly expand the structural coverage of the proteome by applying the state-of-the-art machine learning method, AlphaFold2, at a scale that covers almost the entire human proteome (98.5% of human proteins). The resulting dataset covers 58% of residues with a confident prediction, of which a subset (36% of all residues) have very high confidence. We introduce several metrics developed by building on the AlphaFold model and use them to interpret the dataset, identifying strong multi-domain predictions as well as regions that are likely to be disordered. Finally, we provide some case studies to illustrate how high-quality predictions could be used to generate biological hypotheses. We are making our predictions freely available to the community and anticipate that routine large-scale and high-accuracy structure prediction will become an important tool that will allow new questions to be addressed from a structural perspective.

AlphaFold Protein Structure Database: massively expanding the structural coverage of protein-sequence space with high-accuracy models.

The AlphaFold Protein Structure Database (AlphaFold DB, https://alphafold.ebi.ac.uk) is an openly accessible, extensive database of high-accuracy protein-structure predictions. Powered by AlphaFold v2.0 of DeepMind, it has enabled an unprecedented expansion of the structural coverage of the known protein-sequence space. AlphaFold DB provides programmatic access to and interactive visualization of predicted atomic coordinates, per-residue and pairwise model-confidence estimates and predicted aligned errors. The initial release of AlphaFold DB contains over 360,000 predicted structures across 21 model-organism proteomes, which will soon be expanded to cover most of the (over 100 million) representative sequences from the UniRef90 data set.

Applying and improving AlphaFold at CASP14.

We describe the operation and improvement of AlphaFold, the system that was entered by the team AlphaFold2 to the "human" category in the 14th Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP14). The AlphaFold system entered in CASP14 is entirely different to the one entered in CASP13. It used a novel end-to-end deep neural network trained to produce protein structures from amino acid sequence, multiple sequence alignments, and homologous proteins. In the assessors' ranking by summed z scores (>2.0), AlphaFold scored 244.0 compared to 90.8 by the next best group. The predictions made by AlphaFold had a median domain GDT_TS of 92.4; this is the first time that this level of average accuracy has been achieved during CASP, especially on the more difficult Free Modeling targets, and represents a significant improvement in the state of the art in protein structure prediction. We reported how AlphaFold was run as a human team during CASP14 and improved such that it now achieves an equivalent level of performance without intervention, opening the door to highly accurate large-scale structure prediction.

Fluorescence and phosphorescence lifetime imaging reveals a significant cell nuclear viscosity and refractive index changes upon DNA damage.

Cytoplasmic viscosity is a crucial parameter in determining rates of diffusion-limited reactions. Changes in viscosity are associated with several diseases, whilst nuclear viscosity determines gene integrity, regulation and expression. Yet how drugs including DNA-damaging agents affect viscosity is unknown. We demonstrate the use of a platinum complex, Pt[L]Cl, that localizes efficiently mostly in the nucleus as a probe for nuclear viscosity. The phosphorescence lifetime of Pt[L]Cl is sensitive to viscosity and provides an excellent tool to investigate the impact of DNA damage. We show using Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging (FLIM) that the lifetime of both green and red fluorescent proteins (FP) are also sensitive to changes in cellular viscosity and refractive index. However, Pt[L]Cl proved to be a more sensitive viscosity probe, by virtue of microsecond phosphorescence lifetime versus nanosecond fluorescence lifetime of FP, hence greater sensitivity to bimolecular reactions. DNA damage was inflicted by either a two-photon excitation, one-photon excitation microbeam and X-rays. DNA damage of live cells causes significant increase in the lifetime of either Pt[L]Cl (HeLa cells, 12.5-14.1 µs) or intracellularly expressed mCherry (HEK293 cells, 1.54-1.67 ns), but a decrease in fluorescence lifetime of GFP from 2.65 to 2.29 ns (in V15B cells). These values represent a viscosity change from 8.59 to 20.56 cP as well as significant changes in the refractive index (RI), according to independent calibration. Interestingly DNA damage localized to a submicron region following a laser microbeam induction showed a whole cell viscosity change, with those in the nucleus being greater than the cytoplasm. We also found evidence of a by-stander effect, whereby adjacent un-irradiated cells also showed nuclear viscosity change. Finally, an increase in viscosity following DNA damage was also observed in bacterial cells with an over-expressed mNeonGreen FP, evidenced by the change in its lifetime from 2.8 to 2.4 ns.