U-Th dating reveals regional-scale decline of branching Acropora corals on the Great Barrier Reef over the past century.

Hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is on a trajectory of decline. However, little is known about past coral mortality before the advent of long-term monitoring (circa 1980s). Using paleoecological analysis and high-precision uranium-thorium (U-Th) dating, we reveal an extensive loss of branching Acropora corals and changes in coral community structure in the Palm Islands region of the central GBR over the past century. In 2008, dead coral assemblages were dominated by large, branching Acropora and living coral assemblages by genera typically found in turbid inshore environments. The timing of Acropora mortality was found to be occasionally synchronous among reefs and frequently linked to discrete disturbance events, occurring in the 1920s to 1960s and again in the 1980s to 1990s. Surveys conducted in 2014 revealed low Acropora cover (<5%) across all sites, with very little evidence of change for up to 60 y at some sites. Collectively, our results suggest a loss of resilience of this formerly dominant key framework builder at a regional scale, with recovery severely lagging behind predictions. Our study implies that the management of these reefs may be predicated on a shifted baseline.

Palaeoecological evidence of a historical collapse of corals at Pelorus Island, inshore Great Barrier Reef, following European settlement.

The inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have undergone significant declines in water quality following European settlement (approx. 1870 AD). However, direct evidence of impacts on coral assemblages is limited by a lack of historical baselines prior to the onset of modern monitoring programmes in the early 1980s. Through palaeoecological reconstructions, we report a previously undocumented historical collapse of Acropora assemblages at Pelorus Island (central GBR). High-precision U-series dating of dead Acropora fragments indicates that this collapse occurred between 1920 and 1955, with few dates obtained after 1980. Prior to this event, our results indicate remarkable long-term stability in coral community structure over centennial scales. We suggest that chronic increases in sediment flux and nutrient loading following European settlement acted as the ultimate cause for the lack of recovery of Acropora assemblages following a series of acute disturbance events (SST anomalies, cyclones and flood events). Evidence for major degradation in reef condition owing to human impacts prior to modern ecological surveys indicates that current monitoring of inshore reefs on the GBR may be predicated on a significantly shifted baseline.

Seasonal to decadal scale influence of environmental drivers on Ba/Ca and Y/Ca in coral aragonite from the southern Great Barrier Reef.

Extensive catchment modification since European settlement on the eastern coast of Australia results in poor coastal water quality, which poses a major threat for near shore coral communities in the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Long lived inshore corals have the potential to provide long-term temporal records of changing water quality both pre- and post-anthropogenic modification. However, water quality proxies require more study and validation of the robustness of coral-hosted geochemical proxies for a specific site is critical. This study investigated the long-term (1958-2010) influence of environmental drivers on high-resolution Ba/Ca and Y/Ca proxies obtained from Porites sp. coral from Great Keppel Island, southern GBR, Australia. Geochemical proxy records were influenced by environmental change on a seasonal to decadal scale. Although seasonal oscillations of Ba/Ca and Y/Ca were related to rainfall and discharge from the Fitzroy River catchment, some uncorrelated anomalous peaks were evident throughout the time series. Regardless, the behaviour of these proxies was significantly consistent over the longer time scale. Most long-term drought-breaking floods, including one that occurred in winter, resulted in significant increase in the targeted elemental ratios owing to higher terrigenous sediment flux to the near shore marine environment from a catchment with reduced groundcover. Following this intense flushing event, elemental ratios were reduced in subsequent wet periods as a result of less sediment being available for transport to coastal seawater. Ba/Ca and Y/Ca proxies can be valuable tools in reconstructing multiyear variations in terrestrial runoff and associated inshore water quality. As these proxies and their regional and local controls are better understood they will aid our understanding of how reefs have responded and may respond to changing water conditions.

Prehistorical and historical declines in Caribbean coral reef accretion rates driven by loss of parrotfish.

Caribbean coral reefs have transformed into algal-dominated habitats over recent decades, but the mechanisms of change are unresolved due to a lack of quantitative ecological data before large-scale human impacts. To understand the role of reduced herbivory in recent coral declines, we produce a high-resolution 3,000 year record of reef accretion rate and herbivore (parrotfish and urchin) abundance from the analysis of sediments and fish, coral and urchin subfossils within cores from Caribbean Panama. At each site, declines in accretion rates and parrotfish abundance were initiated in the prehistorical or historical period. Statistical tests of direct cause and effect relationships using convergent cross mapping reveal that accretion rates are driven by parrotfish abundance (but not vice versa) but are not affected by total urchin abundance. These results confirm the critical role of parrotfish in maintaining coral-dominated reef habitat and the urgent need for restoration of parrotfish populations to enable reef persistence.

Historical photographs revisited: A case study for dating and characterizing recent loss of coral cover on the inshore Great Barrier Reef.

Long-term data with high-precision chronology are essential to elucidate past ecological changes on coral reefs beyond the period of modern-day monitoring programs. In 2012 we revisited two inshore reefs within the central Great Barrier Reef, where a series of historical photographs document a loss of hard coral cover between c.1890-1994 AD. Here we use an integrated approach that includes high-precision U-Th dating specifically tailored for determining the age of extremely young corals to provide a robust, objective characterisation of ecological transition. The timing of mortality for most of the dead in situ corals sampled from the historical photograph locations was found to coincide with major flood events in 1990-1991 at Bramston Reef and 1970 and 2008 at Stone Island. Evidence of some recovery was found at Bramston Reef with living coral genera similar to what was described in c.1890 present in 2012. In contrast, very little sign of coral re-establishment was found at Stone Island suggesting delayed recovery. These results provide a valuable reference point for managers to continue monitoring the recovery (or lack thereof) of coral communities at these reefs.