A visual analytics approach to understanding spatiotemporal hotspots.

As data sources become larger and more complex, the ability to effectively explore and analyze patterns among varying sources becomes a critical bottleneck in analytic reasoning. Incoming data contain multiple variables, high signal-to-noise ratio, and a degree of uncertainty, all of which hinder exploration, hypothesis generation/exploration, and decision making. To facilitate the exploration of such data, advanced tool sets are needed that allow the user to interact with their data in a visual environment that provides direct analytic capability for finding data aberrations or hotspots. In this paper, we present a suite of tools designed to facilitate the exploration of spatiotemporal data sets. Our system allows users to search for hotspots in both space and time, combining linked views and interactive filtering to provide users with contextual information about their data and allow the user to develop and explore their hypotheses. Statistical data models and alert detection algorithms are provided to help draw user attention to critical areas. Demographic filtering can then be further applied as hypotheses generated become fine tuned. This paper demonstrates the use of such tools on multiple geospatiotemporal data sets.

Syndromic surveillance: STL for modeling, visualizing, and monitoring disease counts.

BACKGROUND: Public health surveillance is the monitoring of data to detect and quantify unusual health events. Monitoring pre-diagnostic data, such as emergency department (ED) patient chief complaints, enables rapid detection of disease outbreaks. There are many sources of variation in such data; statistical methods need to accurately model them as a basis for timely and accurate disease outbreak methods. METHODS: Our new methods for modeling daily chief complaint counts are based on a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) and were developed using data from the 76 EDs of the Indiana surveillance program from 2004 to 2008. Square root counts are decomposed into inter-annual, yearly-seasonal, day-of-the-week, and random-error components. Using this decomposition method, we develop a new synoptic-scale (days to weeks) outbreak detection method and carry out a simulation study to compare detection performance to four well-known methods for nine outbreak scenarios. RESULT: The components of the STL decomposition reveal insights into the variability of the Indiana ED data. Day-of-the-week components tend to peak Sunday or Monday, fall steadily to a minimum Thursday or Friday, and then rise to the peak. Yearly-seasonal components show seasonal influenza, some with bimodal peaks.Some inter-annual components increase slightly due to increasing patient populations. A new outbreak detection method based on the decomposition modeling performs well with 90 days or more of data. Control limits were set empirically so that all methods had a specificity of 97%. STL had the largest sensitivity in all nine outbreak scenarios. The STL method also exhibited a well-behaved false positive rate when run on the data with no outbreaks injected. CONCLUSION: The STL decomposition method for chief complaint counts leads to a rapid and accurate detection method for disease outbreaks, and requires only 90 days of historical data to be put into operation. The visualization tools that accompany the decomposition and outbreak methods provide much insight into patterns in the data, which is useful for surveillance operations.

Visualizing incomplete and partially ranked data.

Ranking data, which result from m raters ranking n items, are difficult to visualize due to their discrete algebraic structure, and the computational difficulties associated with them when n is large. This problem becomes worse when raters provide tied rankings or not all items are ranked. We develop an approach for the visualization of ranking data for large n which is intuitive, easy to use, and computationally efficient. The approach overcomes the structural and computational difficulties by utilizing a natural measure of dissimilarity for raters, and projecting the raters into a low dimensional vector space where they are viewed. The visualization techniques are demonstrated using voting data, jokes, and movie preferences.

Automated Box-Cox Transformations for Improved Visual Encoding.

The concept of preconditioning data (utilizing a power transformation as an initial step) for analysis and visualization is well established within the statistical community and is employed as part of statistical modeling and analysis. Such transformations condition the data to various inherent assumptions of statistical inference procedures, as well as making the data more symmetric and easier to visualize and interpret. In this paper, we explore the use of the Box-Cox family of power transformations to semiautomatically adjust visual parameters. We focus on time-series scaling, axis transformations, and color binning for choropleth maps. We illustrate the usage of this transformation through various examples, and discuss the value and some issues in semiautomatically using these transformations for more effective data visualization.