RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The British Virgin Islands and the US Virgin Islands, two island groups located in the Caribbean archipelago, hold unique plant diversity and high endemism. Until recently, Solanum conocarpum was considered a rare plant species endemic to the island of St. John in the US Virgin Islands. Ongoing botanical surveys in this region are revealing new populations and refining our understanding of the distribution of these narrow endemic plant species. The objective of this paper is to assess the conservation status of S. conocarpum, including a review of its geographic range, population numbers, threats and conservation actions needed for its long-term survival. NEW INFORMATION: In this paper, we present new occurrences for S. conocarpum, extending its geographic range to a new island, Tortola and new territory, the British Virgin Islands. Despite this range expansion, this species is evaluated as Endangered (EN), based on Criteria B1b(iii,v)+2b(iii,v)+C2a(i), according to the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. The extent of occurrence (EOO = 46 km2) and area of occupancy (AOO = 20 km2) are highly restricted. On St. John (US Virgin Islands), the historically recorded individuals at Reef Bay, Europa Ridge and Sabbat Point are now considered extirpated due to disturbance from development compounded by invasive species, as well as the impact of feral ungulates and drought stress. These threats are impacting the species across the whole island of St. John and contributing to a continuing decline of suitable habitat, despite the island being a National Park. On the island of Tortola, the species occurs on unprotected lands subject to development and habitat modification and decline by feral ungulates. Based on these threats acting separately across the two islands, two locations were defined. The estimated total number of mature individuals ranges between 150 and 250, with the largest subpopulation at Nanny Point in the US Virgin Islands, containing 108 mature individuals. Conservation action, focused on protecting this species' habitat, is urgently needed.
RESUMO
The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.