Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth's dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain. To improve our understanding of ENSO's sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by using palaeoclimate data and model simulations. Palaeoclimate records show that ENSO has varied considerably since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago), and some data sets suggest a gradual intensification of ENSO over the past ∼6,000 years. Previous attempts to simulate the transient evolution of ENSO have relied on simplified models or snapshot experiments. Here we analyse a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing, the meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. Consistent with most palaeo-ENSO reconstructions, our model simulates an orbitally induced strengthening of ENSO during the Holocene epoch, which is caused by increasing positive ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. During the early deglaciation, ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges and the resulting changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and equatorial annual cycle. Increasing deglacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations tend to weaken ENSO, whereas retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO. The complex evolution of forcings and ENSO feedbacks and the uncertainties in the reconstruction further highlight the challenge and opportunity for constraining future ENSO responses.

Evolution of tropical land temperature across the last glacial termination.

The tropical West Pacific hosts the warmest part of the surface ocean and has a considerable impact on the global climate system. Reconstructions of past temperature in this region can elucidate climate connections between the tropics and poles and the sensitivity of tropical temperature to greenhouse forcing. However, existing data are equivocal and reliable information from terrestrial archives is particularly sparse. Here we constrain the magnitude and timing of land temperature change in the tropical West Pacific across the last deglaciation using an exceptionally precise paleothermometer applied to a well-dated stalagmite from Northern Borneo. We show that the cave temperature increased by 4.4 ± 0.3 °C (2 SEM) from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, amounting to 3.6 ± 0.3 °C (2 SEM) when correcting for sea-level induced cave altitude change. The warming closely follows atmospheric CO2 and Southern Hemisphere warming. This contrasts with hydroclimate, as reflected by drip water δ18O, which responds to Northern Hemisphere cooling events in the form of prominent drying, while temperature was rising. Our results thus show a close response of tropical temperature to greenhouse forcing, independent of shifts in the tropical circulation patterns.

Interglacial hydroclimate in the tropical West Pacific through the Late Pleistocene.

Records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (P(CO(2))) and Antarctic temperature have revealed an intriguing change in the magnitude of interglacial warmth and P(CO(2)) at around 430,000 years ago (430 ka), but the global climate repercussions of this change remain elusive. Here, we present a stalagmite-based reconstruction of tropical West Pacific hydroclimate from 570 to 210 ka. The results suggest similar regional precipitation amounts across the four interglacials contained in the record, implying that tropical hydroclimate was insensitive to interglacial differences in P(CO(2)) and high-latitude temperature. In contrast, during glacial terminations, drying in the tropical West Pacific accompanied cooling events in northern high latitudes. Therefore, the tropical convective heat engine can either stabilize or amplify global climate change, depending on the nature of the climate forcing.