The geography of climate and the global patterns of species diversity.

Climate's effect on global biodiversity is typically viewed through the lens of temperature, humidity and resulting ecosystem productivity1-6. However, it is not known whether biodiversity depends solely on these climate conditions, or whether the size and fragmentation of these climates are also crucial. Here we shift the common perspective in global biodiversity studies, transitioning from geographic space to a climate-defined multidimensional space. Our findings suggest that larger and more isolated climate conditions tend to harbour higher diversity and species turnover among terrestrial tetrapods, encompassing more than 30,000 species. By considering both the characteristics of climate itself and its geographic attributes, we can explain almost 90% of the variation in global species richness. Half of the explanatory power (45%) may be attributed either to climate itself or to the geography of climate, suggesting a nuanced interplay between them. Our work evolves the conventional idea that larger climate regions, such as the tropics, host more species primarily because of their size7,8. Instead, we underscore the integral roles of both the geographic extent and degree of isolation of climates. This refined understanding presents a more intricate picture of biodiversity distribution, which can guide our approach to biodiversity conservation in an ever-changing world.

Landscape dynamics and diversification of the megadiverse South American freshwater fish fauna.

Landscape dynamics are widely thought to govern the tempo and mode of continental radiations, yet the effects of river network rearrangements on dispersal and lineage diversification remain poorly understood. We integrated an unprecedented occurrence dataset of 4,967 species with a newly compiled, time-calibrated phylogeny of South American freshwater fishes-the most species-rich continental vertebrate fauna on Earth-to track the evolutionary processes associated with hydrogeographic events over 100 Ma. Net lineage diversification was heterogeneous through time, across space, and among clades. Five abrupt shifts in net diversification rates occurred during the Paleogene and Miocene (between 30 and 7 Ma) in association with major landscape evolution events. Net diversification accelerated from the Miocene to the Recent (c. 20 to 0 Ma), with Western Amazonia having the highest rates of in situ diversification, which led to it being an important source of species dispersing to other regions. All regional biotic interchanges were associated with documented hydrogeographic events and the formation of biogeographic corridors, including the Early Miocene (c. 23 to 16 Ma) uplift of the Serra do Mar and Serra da Mantiqueira and the Late Miocene (c. 10 Ma) uplift of the Northern Andes and associated formation of the modern transcontinental Amazon River. The combination of high diversification rates and extensive biotic interchange associated with Western Amazonia yielded its extraordinary contemporary richness and phylogenetic endemism. Our results support the hypothesis that landscape dynamics, which shaped the history of drainage basin connections, strongly affected the assembly and diversification of basin-wide fish faunas.

Spatial variation in direct and indirect effects of climate and productivity on species richness of terrestrial tetrapods.

AIM: We aimed to dissect the spatial variation of the direct and indirect effects of climate and productivity on global species richness of terrestrial tetrapods. LOCATION: Global. TIME PERIOD: Present. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Terrestrial tetrapods. METHODS: We used a geographically weighted path analysis to estimate and map the direct and indirect effects of temperature, precipitation and primary productivity on species richness of terrestrial tetrapods across the globe. RESULTS: We found that all relationships shift in magnitude, and even in direction, among taxonomic groups, geographical regions and connecting paths. Direct effects of temperature and precipitation are generally stronger than both indirect effects mediated by productivity and direct effects of productivity. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Richness gradients seem to be driven primarily by effects of climate on organismal physiological limits and metabolic rates rather than by the amount of productive energy. Reptiles have the most distinct relationships across tetrapods, with a clear latitudinal pattern in the importance of temperature versus water.

Neutral Community Dynamics and the Evolution of Species Interactions.

A contemporary goal in ecology is to determine the ecological and evolutionary processes that generate recurring structural patterns in mutualistic networks. One of the great challenges is testing the capacity of neutral processes to replicate observed patterns in ecological networks, since the original formulation of the neutral theory lacks trophic interactions. Here, we develop a stochastic-simulation neutral model adding trophic interactions to the neutral theory of biodiversity. Without invoking ecological differences among individuals of different species, and assuming that ecological interactions emerge randomly, we demonstrate that a spatially explicit multitrophic neutral model is able to capture the recurrent structural patterns of mutualistic networks (i.e., degree distribution, connectance, nestedness, and phylogenetic signal of species interactions). Nonrandom species distribution, caused by probabilistic events of migration and speciation, create nonrandom network patterns. These findings have broad implications for the interpretation of niche-based processes as drivers of ecological networks, as well as for the integration of network structures with demographic stochasticity.

Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves.

Individual processes shaping geographical patterns of biodiversity are increasingly understood, but their complex interactions on broad spatial and temporal scales remain beyond the reach of analytical models and traditional experiments. To meet this challenge, we built a spatially explicit, mechanistic simulation model implementing adaptation, range shifts, fragmentation, speciation, dispersal, competition, and extinction, driven by modeled climates of the past 800,000 years in South America. Experimental topographic smoothing confirmed the impact of climate heterogeneity on diversification. The simulations identified regions and episodes of speciation (cradles), persistence (museums), and extinction (graves). Although the simulations had no target pattern and were not parameterized with empirical data, emerging richness maps closely resembled contemporary maps for major taxa, confirming powerful roles for evolution and diversification driven by topography and climate.